R2G1 - 76ers at Celtics - May 1 7:30pm ET TNT

[Arsenal]

This is the biggest series in the history of the Process Sixers. Can we finally get over our nemesis? The road afterwards to a title looks as open as ever. Whoever comes out of this series has homecourt advantage the rest of the playoffs.

Will Joel play? He's listed as doubtful. Can Reed hold the fort enough for us to win without him?

Will Harden be 100%? He says he is. Will Maxey play well or get shut down vs. the C's again? Will Tobias finally play well in a tough playoff series?

Time's yours...

https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401545111

[Negrodamus]

It's a shame we couldn't bring in a playable PF/C hybrid to put behind Embiid and Reed. I think our ideal lineup tonight will be Harden, Maxey, Tobi, PJ, and Reed if Embiid can't play. Need large, long, mobile guys to be able to switch onto Tatum and Brown while also being able to defend Horford. That frontcourt will be able to, but Harrell and Dedmon will be targeted when they touch the court. Kinda sucks we have so much dead weight at the center position on this roster.

Niang is going to get murdered on defense. Might have to lean on House and McDaniels at the 4 a decent bit.

[Arsenal]

It's a shame we couldn't bring in a playable PF/C hybrid to put behind Embiid and Reed. I think our ideal lineup tonight will be Harden, Maxey, Tobi, PJ, and Reed if Embiid can't play. Need large, long, mobile guys to be able to switch onto Tatum and Brown while also being able to defend Horford. That frontcourt will be able to, but Harrell and Dedmon will be targeted when they touch the court. Kinda sucks we have so much dead weight at the center position on this roster.

Niang is going to get murdered on defense. Might have to lean on House and McDaniels at the 4 a decent bit.

I'll be surprised if Harrell and Dedmon get much playing time. When Reed sits I expect us to go small with Tucker or Harris at Center flanked by 2 other PFs. Celtics with only Horford play 5-out anyway so can't really punish that lineup. If they also play Robert Williams with Horford, we can make them pay at the other end.

[76ciology]

Niang is going to get murdered on defense. Might have to lean on House and McDaniels at the 4 a decent bit.

-Niang is rarely hunted by the Celts.
-Tatum has scored 0 of 2 against him.
-Team plays better with Niang on the court than offcourt, both reg season and SPECIALLY playoffs.
-Niang is decent on ISO defense (below .9ppp) and contesting shots (.6 dfg%)

Hunting Niang is a trap, he’s underratedly mobile as a defender that you wont be able to back him down. And we usually surround him with Melton-McDaniel-Reed who has all the length and athleticism to make it hard for you to pass it out and can provide help defense.

[Negrodamus]

Hawks gave a good blueprint on defense, but I'm not anticipating us having the offense to keep up. Do not let Tatum, Brown, Horford, White, etc get off clean shots. Force them in the paint. Hopefully Reed can provide the shot blocking needed to make them uncomfortable. Pray that Tatum doesn't get hot over heavily contested 3s/midrange jumpers.

[AI_Efficiency]

Niang is going to get murdered on defense. Might have to lean on House and McDaniels at the 4 a decent bit.

-Niang is rarely hunted by the Celts.
-Tatum has scored 0 of 2 against him.
-Team plays better with Niang on the court than offcourt, both reg season and SPECIALLY playoffs.
-Niang is decent on ISO defense (below .9ppp) and contesting shots (.6 dfg%)

Hunting Niang is a trap, he’s underratedly mobile as a defender that you wont be able to back him down. And we usually surround him with Melton-McDaniel-Reed who has all the length and athleticism to make it hard for you to pass it out and can provide help defense.

Respectfully, if you haven’t read it yet, this might be the article for you - https://www.theringer.com/platform/amp/2023/4/13/23681148/2023-nba-playoff-preview-how-to-use-and-not-use-lineup-data. I see a lot of quotes about like so and so shot x/y the four times these teams played so y is a bad/good defender against them. That data is bordering on meaningless because it’s such a low sample size. The data over a season (like the data you cited on Niang contesting shots and iso) would have more value.

[76ciology]

Niang is going to get murdered on defense. Might have to lean on House and McDaniels at the 4 a decent bit.

-Niang is rarely hunted by the Celts.
-Tatum has scored 0 of 2 against him.
-Team plays better with Niang on the court than offcourt, both reg season and SPECIALLY playoffs.
-Niang is decent on ISO defense (below .9ppp) and contesting shots (.6 dfg%)

Hunting Niang is a trap, he’s underratedly mobile as a defender that you wont be able to back him down. And we usually surround him with Melton-McDaniel-Reed who has all the length and athleticism to make it hard for you to pass it out and can provide help defense.

Respectfully, if you haven’t read it yet, this might be the article for you - https://www.theringer.com/platform/amp/2023/4/13/23681148/2023-nba-playoff-preview-how-to-use-and-not-use-lineup-data. I see a lot of quotes about like so and so shot x/y the four times these teams played so y is a bad/good defender against them. That data is bordering on meaningless because it’s such a low sample size. The data over a season (like the data you cited on Niang contesting shots and iso) would have more value.

I agree with the low sample size. And the reason why the size is low is you can’t hunt Niang. Because we have a scheme to prevent it. Either by doubling, sending help, gap, shading, hedge, zone and all the players around him.

so reg season or playoffs, niang is never a liability on defense. Defense is way more of a team game than offense.

If there’s anything that makes Niang unplayable is Celts rarely sends help. So he’s close to being a 0 on offense.

[Negrodamus]

-Niang is rarely hunted by the Celts.
-Tatum has scored 0 of 2 against him.
-Team plays better with Niang on the court than offcourt, both reg season and SPECIALLY playoffs.
-Niang is decent on ISO defense (below .9ppp) and contesting shots (.6 dfg%)

Hunting Niang is a trap, he’s underratedly mobile as a defender that you wont be able to back him down. And we usually surround him with Melton-McDaniel-Reed who has all the length and athleticism to make it hard for you to pass it out and can provide help defense.

Respectfully, if you haven’t read it yet, this might be the article for you - https://www.theringer.com/platform/amp/2023/4/13/23681148/2023-nba-playoff-preview-how-to-use-and-not-use-lineup-data. I see a lot of quotes about like so and so shot x/y the four times these teams played so y is a bad/good defender against them. That data is bordering on meaningless because it’s such a low sample size. The data over a season (like the data you cited on Niang contesting shots and iso) would have more value.

I agree with the low sample size. And the reason why the size is low is you can’t hunt Niang. Because we have a scheme to prevent it. Either by doubling, sending help, gap, shading, hedge, zone and all the players around him.

so reg season or playoffs, niang is never a liability on defense. Defense is way more of a team game than offense.

If there’s anything that makes Niang unplayable is Celts rarely sends help. So he’s close to being a 0 on offense.

Our scheme to protect bad defenders usually leaves the other team taking wide open jumpers. Has been our issue all year to be honest.

So when that happens, it might not appear as a "ding" against Niang's defensive record statistically, but he's the root of the issue.

[76ciology]

So sounds like Biid is not playing this game. Such a downer.

Anyway, I hope Maxey and Harden just be aggressive this game. I believe they can breakdown the defense and could be more successful in forcing the Celts to send help than Jojo because of Celts defensive principles.

Defensively, Reed-McDaniels-Tobi-Tucker have to step it up. I know we have studied both Warriors and Heat’s defensive scheme against the Celts and we will implement it in this series. We need those 4 to replicate Draymond and Wiggins on defense

[Negrodamus]

This is also a chance for Maxey to arrive as a star in the league. Even if we have Embiid, he's going to need to score 25+ ppg for us to have a shot here. I'm hoping for an explosion tonight from him.

[76ciology]

Oh and I think we’ll win this game, just by how this entire playoffs is going.

[Tony Franciosa]

Best case for me is that we catch the C's with their guard down if Joel doesn't play tonight and we steal Game 1. Jo can rest for Game 2 and we come back to Philly tied up and Jo back and little bit healthier.

[76ciology]

This is also a chance for Maxey to arrive as a star in the league. Even if we have Embiid, he's going to need to score 25+ ppg for us to have a shot here. I'm hoping for an explosion tonight from him.

Same. this is a great opportunity for him, and I have a feeling we’d win this game because of him.

Sigh.. im gonna take a rest for now until the game starts.

[Arsenal]

If Jo doesn't play I think we need significant minutes from Shake for playmaking purposes. Don't think Maxey can handle it on his own without Embiid on the floor in the non-Harden mins.

[SixthStreet]

I think sitting him is the right decision. He seems too susceptible to further injury. Probably shouldn't play game 2 either.

[FireMorey]

A grade 2 LCL is a 4-6 week injury. He hasn't even had 2 weeks rest. If he can't play game 1, then I don't see how an extra 2 days or 4 days will make a difference. He's either ready now or he isn't.

[TravisScott55]

Sucks Embiid is hurt

[sixers4real]

Am I the only one who thinks he’ll try to play today?

Why is he even doubtful but not out.

[Eyeamok]

Best case for me is that we catch the C's with their guard down if Joel doesn't play tonight and we steal Game 1. Jo can rest for Game 2 and we come back to Philly tied up and Jo back and little bit healthier.

You know we will lose game 4 at home. It's how we roll.

[GoSixersBro]

Best case for me is that we catch the C's with their guard down if Joel doesn't play tonight and we steal Game 1. Jo can rest for Game 2 and we come back to Philly tied up and Jo back and little bit healthier.

You know we will lose game 4 at home. It's how we roll.

Which is awful for momentum because stealing Game 5 on the road is always the toughest game.