2025 NBA Draft (2)

[Foshan]

I was about 25 pages late in locking the last topic, but as we approach the draft, let's get another thread rolling!

[Kolkmania]

I enjoyed the Ace discussion. I think that Bailey showed some flashes of good passes when he drove to the basket with good kick-outs. The AST% and FTr are partly impacted by his horrendous team mates, but it also shows his tendency to shy away from contact in my opinion. That's worrisome and I think it does project him to be a forward that prefers (tough) jump shots instead of a healthier shot diet with more efficient shots at the rim.

I don't think you can deny the fluidity and skill level of Ace when he shoots these contested shots, so I think you'll need to acknowledge that he might be an outlier that can be an exception. However, in order to become a true star player in the NBA, the shotmaking needs to be elite. If that happens, the court will open up and it makes life easier on playmaking, etc.

The <70 FT% makes me really worried. Typically 100 FTA is a reasonable volume for projections, but obviously there are outliers that posted similar percentages and made massive jumps (ironically both Embiid and George shot <70% in college as well during their freshman years). The ~90 FT% in high school would be important for me since it provides another data point. However, I would love it to have an actual source instead of hearsay from the school.

[Foshan]

I enjoyed the Ace discussion. I think that Bailey showed some flashes of good passes when he drove to the basket with good kick-outs. The AST% and FTr are partly impacted by his horrendous team mates, but it also shows his tendency to shy away from contact in my opinion. That's worrisome and I think it does project him to be a forward that prefers (tough) jump shots instead of a healthier shot diet with more efficient shots at the rim.

I don't think you can deny the fluidity and skill level of Ace when he shoots these contested shots, so I think you'll need to acknowledge that he might be an outlier that can be an exception. However, in order to become a true star player in the NBA, the shotmaking needs to be elite. If that happens, the court will open up and it makes life easier on playmaking, etc.

The <70 FT% makes me really worried. Typically 100 FTA is a reasonable volume for projections, but obviously there are outliers that posted similar percentages and made massive jumps (ironically both Embiid and George shot <70% in college as well during their freshman years). The ~90 FT% in high school would be important for me since it provides another data point. However, I would love it to have an actual source instead of hearsay from the school.

I agree, i love the Ace discussion. But the website does funny thigns post 100pages.

That said, i really do feel like with a slightly better supporting cast, Ace can have a little more space to make shots (which i think he will do at a high level), and then by the time he is being asked to carry more of the load, Maxey will have worked him into a monster

One can hope.

[MVP1992]

Do teams ever invite possible draftees to go work out with their roster?

Would be amazing to see a try out style workout with who ever is not in a wheelchair on the sixers before the draft.

[mjkvol]

The thing that strikes me about the Ace debate is how drastically this draft drops off after the first two picks from typical top 3-5 types who are seen as lock 'stars' at the next level to a large group of players with either high floors or perceived high ceilings that come with bust potential, making them into solid low lottery picks but perhaps not fitting into that elite 1-4 level of player who is considered a "sure thing".

That's a long-winded way of saying that if we were talking about Ace Bailey as the 5th or 6th pick, there would be much less debate about his potential and the risks of his weaknesses. It's the depth of this draft class paired with a shallow top level that creates the conundrum at #3 that the Sixers face on draft night. At least that's my view of this, but it has definitely woken up what was a sleepy board for much of last season.

[sodmoraes]

I´ve decided we now are a dictatorship and we will pick Bailey, no more questions asked. I dont wanna hear about Ace´s ftr, Maluach´s potential or anything about that fatboy Queen, we wont pick him, it is already decided. It´s only pro Ace news here from now on..

[sodmoraes]

Like Black Mage posted in the other draft topic,in my opinion doesnt make sense to not draft Bailey because we want to "maximize this contention window" with Embiid´s timeline. It´s almost malpratice to still think about Embiid, specially jeopardizing our future with the 3rd pick. That ship already sailed, Embiid will never be 100% again. And even if he were, his game is not made to the playoffs( like Harden, he wont get a lot of fouls in the playoffs, so his scoring drops a lot), we already have a lot of evidence to back this up. I love the big fella, but i dont think we should plan our future considering Joel anymore.

[Negrodamus]

I enjoyed the Ace discussion. I think that Bailey showed some flashes of good passes when he drove to the basket with good kick-outs. The AST% and FTr are partly impacted by his horrendous team mates, but it also shows his tendency to shy away from contact in my opinion. That's worrisome and I think it does project him to be a forward that prefers (tough) jump shots instead of a healthier shot diet with more efficient shots at the rim.

I don't think you can deny the fluidity and skill level of Ace when he shoots these contested shots, so I think you'll need to acknowledge that he might be an outlier that can be an exception. However, in order to become a true star player in the NBA, the shotmaking needs to be elite. If that happens, the court will open up and it makes life easier on playmaking, etc.

The <70 FT% makes me really worried. Typically 100 FTA is a reasonable volume for projections, but obviously there are outliers that posted similar percentages and made massive jumps (ironically both Embiid and George shot <70% in college as well during their freshman years). The ~90 FT% in high school would be important for me since it provides another data point. However, I would love it to have an actual source instead of hearsay from the school.

Yea, I mean I acknowledge that the shots are impressive and the difficulty is undeniable. My thing is that SGA took a ton of those types of shots last night, particularly down the stretch, but he never really needed to at UK because he was a master at getting into the lane and making the right decision at or near the rim. The hard fadeaway shot making comes later when you’re playing against enormous men who are the best of the best in the NBA, not against Northwestern.

I think 6’7 Zach LaVine is actually an interesting comp since he was also a statistical outlier who made two all star games. I’ll let you all debate whether that’s the home run swing we want at 3 (zero playoff success in a decade of playing in the NBA).

[MVP1992]

I can't see any Team drafting between 4 & 8 wanting to give up fair compensation to move up to #3, let alone a nice over pay to make it worth it for Morey.


*Hot take* ; I still don't think Spurs select Harper.

[Jojothewhale]

LaVine was defined by his athleticism. If Bailey has the kind of suddenness he did, I’m not objecting to picking him at 3. That’s the whole discussion to me. Ace isn’t quick enough to get around people, so he has to shoot over top. The best bet for doing that is to be an outlier body type. He’s not.

I really do not care who thinks he’s going to grow more. That’s pure wishcasting. None of us have any way of making that projection either way.

[Negrodamus]

LaVine was defined by his athleticism. If Bailey has the kind of suddenness he did, I’m not objecting to picking him at 3. That’s the whole discussion to me. Ace isn’t quick enough to get around people, so he has to shoot over top. The best bet for doing that is to be an outlier body type. He’s not.

I really do not care who thinks he’s going to grow more. That’s pure wishcasting. None of us have any way of making that projection either way.

Right, the argument would likely be Ace has greater length/height than LaVine so that'll be how he gets his shots. My issue is I haven't liked LaVine at any point in his career and have chalked him up to being a chucker. Ace seems to have that same losing DNA in his game. See also: Brandon Ingram, Andrew Wiggins (until he accepted a role within the GSW system), Cam Thomas, RJ Barrett, Miles Bridges....

If the deal is we're bringing in Ace to be a super role player like Wiggins became, then I get it. Otherwise, I see him more as a star on a losing team as his best case scenario.

[Arsenal]

I can't see any Team drafting between 4 & 8 wanting to give up fair compensation to move up to #3, let alone a nice over pay to make it worth it for Morey.


*Hot take* ; I still don't think Spurs select Harper.

Well if they don’t then we just take Harper and the board civil war ends. Otherwise get ready for a long conflict!

[Arsenal]

A 3 inches taller, two-way version of Zach LaVine is a superstar.

[sodmoraes]

LaVine was defined by his athleticism. If Bailey has the kind of suddenness he did, I’m not objecting to picking him at 3. That’s the whole discussion to me. Ace isn’t quick enough to get around people, so he has to shoot over top. The best bet for doing that is to be an outlier body type. He’s not.

I really do not care who thinks he’s going to grow more. That’s pure wishcasting. None of us have any way of making that projection either way.

Are we sure that Ace doesnt have that kind of speed? His agility tests were pretty good on the combine. I think people may think he´s not that quick because he wasnt that sucessfull driving to the rim, but i think its more because his handle isnt advanced enough, and his team had poor spacing, because none could shoot a damn.

[Jojothewhale]

LaVine was defined by his athleticism. If Bailey has the kind of suddenness he did, I’m not objecting to picking him at 3. That’s the whole discussion to me. Ace isn’t quick enough to get around people, so he has to shoot over top. The best bet for doing that is to be an outlier body type. He’s not.

I really do not care who thinks he’s going to grow more. That’s pure wishcasting. None of us have any way of making that projection either way.

Are we sure that Ace doesnt have that kind of speed? His agility tests were pretty good on the combine. I think people may think he´s not that quick because he wasnt that sucessfull driving to the rim, but i think its more because his handle isnt advanced enough, and his team had poor spacing, because none could shoot a damn.

Well I am. But I understand not everyone is. It's not like there's a way to be right or wrong.

Prime LaVine was one of the very best athletes in the NBA. That's an incredibly high bar.

[sodmoraes]

LaVine was defined by his athleticism. If Bailey has the kind of suddenness he did, I’m not objecting to picking him at 3. That’s the whole discussion to me. Ace isn’t quick enough to get around people, so he has to shoot over top. The best bet for doing that is to be an outlier body type. He’s not.

I really do not care who thinks he’s going to grow more. That’s pure wishcasting. None of us have any way of making that projection either way.

Are we sure that Ace doesnt have that kind of speed? His agility tests were pretty good on the combine. I think people may think he´s not that quick because he wasnt that sucessfull driving to the rim, but i think its more because his handle isnt advanced enough, and his team had poor spacing, because none could shoot a damn.

Well I am. But I understand not everyone is. It's not like there's a way to be right or wrong.

Prime LaVine was one of the very best athletes in the NBA. That's an incredibly high bar.

https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/combine-strength-agility?SeasonYear=2014-15
https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/combine-strength-agility?SeasonYear=2025-26

I looked at his draft tests and their agility numbers are pretty comparable, but in the "jumping" part you are right,it really isnt close, Lavine is a way better jumper than Ace.

I know that one thing is a combine test and other is the real athletic ability in a game, but atleast by the numbers, Bailey is pretty quick.

[Jojothewhale]

Are we sure that Ace doesnt have that kind of speed? His agility tests were pretty good on the combine. I think people may think he´s not that quick because he wasnt that sucessfull driving to the rim, but i think its more because his handle isnt advanced enough, and his team had poor spacing, because none could shoot a damn.

Well I am. But I understand not everyone is. It's not like there's a way to be right or wrong.

Prime LaVine was one of the very best athletes in the NBA. That's an incredibly high bar.

https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/combine-strength-agility?SeasonYear=2014-15
https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/combine-strength-agility?SeasonYear=2025-26

I looked at his draft tests and their agility numbers are pretty comparable, but in the "jumping" part you are right,it really isnt close, Lavine is a way better jumper than Ace.

I know that one thing is a combine test and other is the real athletic ability in a game, but atleast by the numbers, Bailey is pretty quick.

Their agility numbers are actually pretty far apart. A half second is a big difference. Now no doubt some of that is because Ace is moving a hell of a lot more mass. And of course the lane agility drill is without the ball, which does at least lend some credence to the handle being an issue. I would agree with that assessment fwiw.

I just don't know how much I trust the numbers behind that drill. Is Devin Booker an otherworldly change of direction NBA athlete? Did Jordan Bone completely break the scale? There's no doubt Bone was fast as hell, but he probably wasn't 3 tenths of a second better than every other player to do the drill at the Combine since 2000.

[Negrodamus]

Tre Johnson being second in the agility test and a higher standing vert really has me disregarding the tests all together. My eyes tell me he's not really an insanely agile guy nor an explosive leaper (he's many other great things though!) so I'm not sure what to take away from the results.

[Mik317]

Ace's issue to me is that he is just a bit from being great at things he is supposed to be great at.

I think 6'7 thing is overblown (again same size as Flagg) BUT some of the luster is still taken away. He is a capable shooter but not the elite one he gets praised as sometimes. He is a good scorer but his lack of first step and ability to get to the rim or line keeps him from being great at it. He has good defensive tools and gets blocks and stuff but who knows if that translates.

So you are left with a very theoretical player...and that **** scares the **** out of me lol.

HOWEVA, He is 18 years old doe (ah brings back the Jrue memories lol), so perhaps getting actual NBA training (even if from our **** ass training staff lol) might make a difference. Him not being in a super high school basketball factory means he might simply be behind his peers in this regard. And as stated in the other thread, him not going to a spot to be the savior from day 1 should be good for his development as he will have to focus on the role player things if he wants playing time. Maxey being a nutcase worker will also be a boon and Podcast P still is very skilled and can teach him some tricks too. This is where the things us normies can't see comes into play..how is he as a person and worker. Seems like a laid back charismatic kid...which can go either way (see Ant Edwards)

So idk lol.

[Negrodamus]

Ace's issue to me is that he is just a bit from being great at things he is supposed to be great at.

I think 6'7 thing is overblown (again same size as Flagg) BUT some of the luster is still taken away. He is a capable shooter but not the elite one he gets praised as sometimes. He is a good scorer but his lack of first step and ability to get to the rim or line keeps him from being great at it. He has good defensive tools and gets blocks and stuff but who knows if that translates.

So you are left with a very theoretical player...and that **** scares the **** out of me lol.

HOWEVA, He is 18 years old doe (ah brings back the Jrue memories lol), so perhaps getting actual NBA training (even if from our **** ass training staff lol) might make a difference. Him not being in a super high school basketball factory means he might simply be behind his peers in this regard. And as stated in the other thread, him not going to a spot to be the savior from day 1 should be good for his development as he will have to focus on the role player things if he wants playing time. Maxey being a nutcase worker will also be a boon and Podcast P still is very skilled and can teach him some tricks too. This is where the things us normies can't see comes into play..how is he as a person and worker. Seems like a laid back charismatic kid...which can go either way (see Ant Edwards)

So idk lol.

He was handcuffed because:
- Harper was the on ball guard, taking assists away while not allowing him to attack the paint.
- The rest of Rutgers was bad, so it negatively affected him
- The coaching was bad
- He didn't go to one of these fancy basketball factories in high school so wasn't offered elite training/coaching

He is going to learn:
- How to dribble at an elite level
- How to have good to elite vision to create for others
- How to get to the rim to generate fouls
- How to take more efficient shots as an off ball player
- How to be a (allegedly) 90% FT shooter again

The Sixers will:
- Surround him with mentors like Paul George, Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid to ensure his success
- Add 20lbs to his frame

I just want to make sure the excuses and the expectation from our team is documented as we continue to not overthink this.