Draft Day Shenanigans (IV)

[Foshan]

It’s the big day!! So before our other thread goes over 100, I’ll start this one in the quiet before the storm!!

Last minute predictions anyone??

[76ciology]

What’s your wild prediction for the draft?

I have Spurs drafting VJ, and we end up with Harper.

Then Harper can’t shoot. But don’t worry, he can get to the rim, pass and defend like Ben Simmons.

[Negrodamus]

What? No poll? How will anyone be vindicated?

[76ciology]

What? No poll? How will anyone be vindicated?

History is written by the victors.

[mjkvol]

Not a prediction, but a wish - trade back with CHA and then BKN or WSH, draft Jaku or Kon, and have a bunch of additional picks, maybe a later 1st where there are a half dozen potential studs, and some future 1sts. Getting some of our lost picks would be fantastic.

I'm at the point where I'd take Jaku or Kon at #3 if we had to stay there. But realistically VJ would be my choice out of the usual suspects mentioned in that range. He just looks like the kind of player that good teams want in the league right now.

[mksp]

Prediction:

Philly stays at #3 and selects VJ

Wild Prediction:

Philly trades back with CHA and selects Kon

[76ciology]

Prediction:

Philly stays at #3 and selects VJ

Wild Prediction:

Philly trades back with CHA and selects Kon

Sixers trades back and selects Ace. Now thats Wild!

LeonJordan be like..

[76ciology]

[x]

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=bJcUtOCSwzTqqyZgysWpbQ[/x]

[Jailblazers7]

I’m on board with the Harper prediction. I just have a gut feeling that SAS are going to draft VJ over Harper.

If not, I think we stay at 3 and draft VJ.

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

I don't have a prediction, but something crazy will go down. Maybe not with us, but I could see Jaylen Brown getting traded to a team with a pick and space to absorb his contract. I can see the Spurs passing on Harper, I can see us taking a totally unexpected player at 3, I can see a big draft name falling.
I don't feel good about this draft right now. I think us picking at 3 was ultimately a curse because society says not to reach on a pick. Therefore if we liked say Kon at our original slotted position (6), then it would be considered foolish to take him at 3. Hopefully Morey goes the other direction and takes who he wants at 3 regardless of what the experts say.

As for who we end up with? I can definitely talk myself into VJ Edgecombe, but what I see with him is Andre Iguodala at the shooting guard position. That's not a bad player at all, but it is a little less than what you'd expect drafting at 3.

[CPops57]

I have my own set of biases and favorite players, but here's my final draft prediction and reasoning for it.

The Sixers are in an unusual spot where they're genuinely hoping to compete right now, but also might have to rebuild very soon depending on an unknown variable in Embiid's health. This makes the draft tougher for them because taking a high-ceiling but risky developmental prospect that may take 4+ years to have a chance to be a really useful player hurts them now when the East might be more wide open with the Tatum/Lilliard/Halliburton injuries. Complicating matters somewhat is that Morey (probably) has to be on the hot seat with another depressing year so getting some genuine contribution from the draft pick is probably crucial to him keeping his job.

So what does a team trying to successfully straddle win-now and win-later do?

1) They'll genuinely try and trade up to get the best available prospect in Dylan Harper: which satisfies both the win-now and win-later scenarios. But if San Antonio asks for too much more beyond the #3 and Clippers unprotected 2028 pick, the price may be viewed as too excessive to be worth it. I think the odds of being able to make a deal are probably like 10-20%. It's not impossible, but don't count on it.

2) I'm sure the team likes a few guys in this draft more than the others, but the truth is there's no obvious can't miss guy at #3. Everybody there has legitimate question marks (Ace's brain, Tre's defense and driving, VJ's ball skills, Kon's athleticism). Therefore, it makes sense to either trade back before making the pick, or draft somebody who you know another team is infatuated with and hold him hostage for a ransom. By trading back, you can try and take more swings at bat.

3) Every team from #3-8 has multiple assets and potential trade options. Charlotte owns 4/33/34. Utah owns 5/21/43/53, Washington owns 6/18/40, New Orleans has 7/23/50, Brooklyn has 8/19/22/26/27/36. I won't take the time to look up future picks, but I assume that those teams might have some future picks to work with too. It's notable that I think that the Sixers won't have a first round pick in next year's (maybe) phenomenal draft.

4) So what will happen? If they have solid intel that one of these teams is infatuated with a player, they'll probably take him and hold him hostage for the maximum they can extract. I think they have a chance to do this multiple times. If they think Charlotte wants VJ, they'll probably try and extract a future pick and at least one of their seconds. If they think Utah wants Tre, they'll take him and try and snag a haul. If they think Washington wants Fears, maybe they can do that again, etc. From his public persona, Morey seems like a dick to people in real life, and he has the chance here to do a funny thing and squeeze a few teams trading down one pick at a time if his intel is right.

5) Who will they ultimately come away with? To me, Kon Kneuppel makes the most sense for both the win-now and win-later scenarios. Of all of the prospects realistically there at #3, Kon's shooting and connective passing is something that should translate right away. Between his ACC Tournament MVP and him demonstrating being able to play a second fiddle to Cooper Flagg, he's the only prospect in this draft who has some credibility as far as both scaling up and scaling down his usage successfully which helps either the win-now or win-later scenario. He's an analytics darling for Moreyball with great outside shooting and surprisingly good ability to get to the rim and finish. The only question mark is this: do you genuinely believe his defense holds up well enough against more athletic players so he doesn't get run off the court? He doesn't have to be a great defender, just somewhere in the neighborhood of average to work very well.

6) What will they do with their other assets? Whether or not Embiid is healthy, Andre Drummond's ability to contribute positive minutes is already in question, and he's just getting older. Bona showed some potential of course, but isn't a can't miss guy and certainly more depth is needed. So they'll find a big with any other pick they have. I don't know if they'll go for more of a rim-runner athlete type or a skilled type or what.

So here it is. Morey is coming back from this draft with this haul.

* Kon Kneuppel
* Big Man To be Determined that fits the team
* 2026 First Round Pick

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

I’m on board with the Harper prediction. I just have a gut feeling that SAS are going to draft VJ over Harper.

If not, I think we stay at 3 and draft VJ.

I hope so bro. It'd be awesome to leave this draft with Harper.

[76ciology]

Windy asked Givony what he like about VJ, latest podcast

Just the explosiveness. I mean, just first of all, the trajectory that he's on. He played his high school basketball in Long Island, so I've been able to watch him here for over the last two, three years.
He was really just a defender early on in his career. He wasn't even ranked in the top 100 the first time that I saw him. But just the intensity that he brings, just the defensive versatility, that toughness, that edge.

But his ball skills have gotten significantly better. He's become a guy that you could legitimately see playing point guard at some stage in his career. I think what really sold people was what we saw from him in the Bahamas national team this past summer, playing in the FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament against Spain, against Poland.

He was playing point guard alongside Buddy Hield, Eric Gordon, Deandre Ayton. He was the best player on the floor. When you have that level of explosiveness, you can get to anywhere you want on the court when you're that dynamic in transition.
The type of shooting that he showed in the Big 12, in flashes, it wasn't consistent. But the upside with VJ Edgecombe is through the roof. Now again, shades of Dylan Harper's situation in San Antonio.
How does VJ Edgecombe fit on that roster with Tyrese Maxey, with Jared McCain, with Quentin Grimes? I think in VJ Edgecombe’s mind, at least in his camp's mind, having that runway to play on the ball and to develop into a guy that can be a point
guard, I think is going to be important for him. How much room is he going to have there to explore that?

This is a team that was projected to contend for a championship this past season, and so there's going to be a certain amount of pressure on him. But I think everybody that's drafting at the top, I think you really have to throw fit out the window. You have to take the guy who's going to be the best player five years from now.

Roster has changed, but you know, like when you do a redraft, you want to feel like you drafted the guy who is the best available talent at that slot, regardless of position. And I think that feels like that's the way that Philadelphia is leading right now.

That Vj Edgecombe is that guy at three.

[76ciology]

I’m on board with the Harper prediction. I just have a gut feeling that SAS are going to draft VJ over Harper.

If not, I think we stay at 3 and draft VJ.

Also same prediction that after drafting Harper, we’ll find out that he can’t shoot?

Halfcourt shooting
30% 3pt%
31% Midrange

[Iscull]

Someone may have posted, but this could be a trading partner.

Read on Twitter

[76ciology]

DX got Tre Johnson sliding to 8th in latest mock

[Arsenal]

As time is running out, I'm moving more and more towards CMB as the target. His analytical profile is unbelievable and he still has a path to stardom even if he never becomes a 3PT shooter, ala Draymond. He's the kind of connective piece who can dominate when surrounded by snipers like we have in Maxey, McCain, Grimes, PG, Edwards, etc. If he does develop a decent open C&S 3-ball then he could be a dominant all-star.

Moving down a few times and ending up with CMB at around #11, plus a massive pick haul would be a major win.

[76ciology]

As time is running out, I'm moving more and more towards CMB as the target. His analytical profile is unbelievable and he still has a path to stardom even if he never becomes a 3PT shooter, ala Draymond. He's the kind of connective piece who can dominate when surrounded by snipers like we have in Maxey, McCain, Grimes, PG, Edwards, etc. If he does develop a decent open C&S 3-ball then he could be a dominant all-star.

Moving down a few times and ending up with CMB at around #11, plus a massive pick haul would be a major win.

Somebody posted on X that he’s Richman’s version of Kenny Lofton, and it got me thinking. Im not saying I agree with it, but..

Lofton’s avg:
16-10-3
21.7 TRB%
23.4 AST%
2.4 STL%
3.0 BLK% (4.7% for CMB)
32.6 USG%
57TS%

[mjkvol]

I have my own set of biases and favorite players, but here's my final draft prediction and reasoning for it.

The Sixers are in an unusual spot where they're genuinely hoping to compete right now, but also might have to rebuild very soon depending on an unknown variable in Embiid's health. This makes the draft tougher for them because taking a high-ceiling but risky developmental prospect that may take 4+ years to have a chance to be a really useful player hurts them now when the East might be more wide open with the Tatum/Lilliard/Halliburton injuries. Complicating matters somewhat is that Morey (probably) has to be on the hot seat with another depressing year so getting some genuine contribution from the draft pick is probably crucial to him keeping his job.

So what does a team trying to successfully straddle win-now and win-later do?

1) They'll genuinely try and trade up to get the best available prospect in Dylan Harper: which satisfies both the win-now and win-later scenarios. But if San Antonio asks for too much more beyond the #3 and Clippers unprotected 2028 pick, the price may be viewed as too excessive to be worth it. I think the odds of being able to make a deal are probably like 10-20%. It's not impossible, but don't count on it.

2) I'm sure the team likes a few guys in this draft more than the others, but the truth is there's no obvious can't miss guy at #3. Everybody there has legitimate question marks (Ace's brain, Tre's defense and driving, VJ's ball skills, Kon's athleticism). Therefore, it makes sense to either trade back before making the pick, or draft somebody who you know another team is infatuated with and hold him hostage for a ransom. By trading back, you can try and take more swings at bat.

3) Every team from #3-8 has multiple assets and potential trade options. Charlotte owns 4/33/34. Utah owns 5/21/43/53, Washington owns 6/18/40, New Orleans has 7/23/50, Brooklyn has 8/19/22/26/27/36. I won't take the time to look up future picks, but I assume that those teams might have some future picks to work with too. It's notable that I think that the Sixers won't have a first round pick in next year's (maybe) phenomenal draft.

4) So what will happen? If they have solid intel that one of these teams is infatuated with a player, they'll probably take him and hold him hostage for the maximum they can extract. I think they have a chance to do this multiple times. If they think Charlotte wants VJ, they'll probably try and extract a future pick and at least one of their seconds. If they think Utah wants Tre, they'll take him and try and snag a haul. If they think Washington wants Fears, maybe they can do that again, etc. From his public persona, Morey seems like a dick to people in real life, and he has the chance here to do a funny thing and squeeze a few teams trading down one pick at a time if his intel is right.

5) Who will they ultimately come away with? To me, Kon Kneuppel makes the most sense for both the win-now and win-later scenarios. Of all of the prospects realistically there at #3, Kon's shooting and connective passing is something that should translate right away. Between his ACC Tournament MVP and him demonstrating being able to play a second fiddle to Cooper Flagg, he's the only prospect in this draft who has some credibility as far as both scaling up and scaling down his usage successfully which helps either the win-now or win-later scenario. He's an analytics darling for Moreyball with great outside shooting and surprisingly good ability to get to the rim and finish. The only question mark is this: do you genuinely believe his defense holds up well enough against more athletic players so he doesn't get run off the court? He doesn't have to be a great defender, just somewhere in the neighborhood of average to work very well.

6) What will they do with their other assets? Whether or not Embiid is healthy, Andre Drummond's ability to contribute positive minutes is already in question, and he's just getting older. Bona showed some potential of course, but isn't a can't miss guy and certainly more depth is needed. So they'll find a big with any other pick they have. I don't know if they'll go for more of a rim-runner athlete type or a skilled type or what.

So here it is. Morey is coming back from this draft with this haul.

* Kon Kneuppel
* Big Man To be Determined that fits the team
* 2026 First Round Pick

That would work for me. As exotic as NBA defenses are today, and with the ability of coaches to scheme to maximize a group's collective defensive ability, I believe the concerns about Kon's defense are going to be at least somewhat overblown. As smart as he is, teams will figure out a way to take advantage of his strengths defensively. People forget that Larry Bird was a dreadful on-ball defender, but the Celtics found a way to hide him and take advantage of his elite off-ball skills.

[mjkvol]

As time is running out, I'm moving more and more towards CMB as the target. His analytical profile is unbelievable and he still has a path to stardom even if he never becomes a 3PT shooter, ala Draymond. He's the kind of connective piece who can dominate when surrounded by snipers like we have in Maxey, McCain, Grimes, PG, Edwards, etc. If he does develop a decent open C&S 3-ball then he could be a dominant all-star.

Moving down a few times and ending up with CMB at around #11, plus a massive pick haul would be a major win.

CMB would be a home run trade-up target. I'm not sure we'd have to get all the way to #11, but there are so many wild cards tonight, who knows?