RealGM

I just noticed that NBA.com does a +/- stat (like hockey has) for each game. In the last two games sixers who had the best +/- were Thad and Lou. Check it out:

http://www.nba.com/games/20080324/PHIBOS/boxscore.html
http://www.nba.com/games/20080322/NJNPHI/boxscore.html
http://www.nba.com/games/20080321/PHIORL/boxscore.html
http://www.nba.com/games/20080319/DENPHI/boxscore.html
http://www.nba.com/games/20080315/SASPHI/boxscore.html
http://www.nba.com/games/20080314/PHICHI/boxscore.html
http://www.nba.com/games/20080312/PHIDET/boxscore.html

What those numbers also reveal is how little the Sixers coaching staff gives credence to these +/- numbers.

Because if they did, they'd notice that a certain player hasn't had a + game during this stretch and yet averages about 22 minutes a game, while another player who has been a + in all but one game and plays the same position averages fewer minutes.

Reggie Evans.

Jason Smith.

Smith was +7 in the first half vs. the Celts yesterday and did not see the floor in the second half.

I agree for the most part, but the +/- stat can be very misleading especially when you don't have a significant amount of data to analyze it. Matchups are key also and sometimes dictate one guy getting minutes over another.

Mozy;

Thanks for that observation. I expect rookies to be inconsistent, but have been critical of all of our youth (except Carney) for their defensive efforts...regardless of whether they exceeded the expectations of most. I have seen a drastic improvement, even from Smith, in very recent games. A couple of games ago (my mind is going -- I forget which) Lou was awesome. Similarly Thad has had two like efforts and Jason one.

A little earlier Thad had made Brandan Wright look like rookie of the year, single handedly helped Boris Diaw out of his slump, and you know what he already wrote about his experience against McDyess. I've felt like a hater, but if we suggest he was great in those games (even without offsetting scoring) how can we distinguish them from his superior effort in the Boston game, for example? I suggest that someone's anticipated greatness in the future is irrelevant in critiquing a game "today". Having said that, I believe he was a great addition, and has been an integral part of this teams success. I, too, expect even more in the future.

I refuse to blame coaches, however, for not allotting minutes based upon plus and minus stats. Instead they should be commended for managing reality. Of all the stats that I distrust, these, although a useful tool, should be reviewed cynically. They are a compilation of numbers based on group dynamics on both offense and defense.

Perhaps, for example, someone more statistically expert can explain why, in the examples above, Thad "always" had a negative when starting, and a positive coming off of the bench.

How is it that in both the Nuggets and Spurs games, Miller had a 0 +/- while Young had a collective +21. Andre was unquestionably the MVP with sixty points and, I think, Young had six in each game, without much else especially distinguishing.

I admit again, however, to being very suspicious of any statistics other than the box scores of games I have watched.

Wait, nba.com has +/- in box scores?

get out.

Next thing you know you'll tell me yahoo has 'em too!

Disagree about Thad's defense earlier in the season. He might have had a game or two where it wasn't up to snuff, but overall I think it's been considerable above average, especially considering he's been playing so much out of position.

A few interisting stats tell a lot about Thad (some i brought up in another post)

Thad is far and away the +/- leader on the Sixers: http://www.nba.com/statistics/lenovo/le ... team=76ers

Note that Williams, Carney and Smith are all in the top 5 on the team.

Also, PER differential is a key stat that say a lot. http://www.82games.com/0708/07PHI9C.HTM

PER measures productivity per minute. PER differntial compares your productivity to the man you are guarding.

Thad has a great PER (#2 amongst rookies) but his PER differential at PF is only +0.1 because he gives up a lot defending PF's (who play above average against him.)

In comparison, Evans yileds a lower PER to the man he is guarding- indicating better defence- but his own PER is horrid, giving a bad PER differential.

BTW, Iguodla's PER differential at SF is #3 behind only Lebron and Pierce (Just ahead of Melo). Dala's PER is not as high as some, but his excellent defennce on other SF's leads to his +6 PER differential (Thad gives up a PER of 19 to opponent SF's while Dala gives up a 15)

PER does not take into account Thad's turnovers forced by taking charges, and the tipped balls that turn into rebounds and steals for teammates- such are the limitations of stats. he still faces obvious challenges playing as an undersized PF.

tk76 wrote:A few interisting stats tell a lot about Thad (some i brought up in another post)

Thad is far and away the +/- leader on the Sixers: http://www.nba.com/statistics/lenovo/le ... team=76ers

This is a cool website - I wish they would take out garbage time stats. It is fun to play with 2, 3, 4, 5 player comparisons.

You have to be careful with +/-, but sometimes it tells the story pretty well.

Last night for instance.... Willie Green played like absolute CRAP (again) and his +/- supports that. Not only was he shooting like a crippled blind man, but he couldn't defend Allen at all.

Reggie Evans didn't have a stellar game, but his +/- was mostly affected by the fact he was unfortunate enough to substitue in and out when the craptacular Willie Green was.

+/- would definitely tell you that Thaddeus and Lou WIlliams (or Carney) should be starting over Willie Green and Reggie Evans.

the key with +/- is comparing apples to apples.

i.e., you can better compare iguodala with Andre Miller than you can Iguodala with Rodney Carney.

Thad directly replaced Reggie most of the night, and their minutes are similar. They can be compared a lot more than Willie Green and Jason Smith.

You need to factor when people play. The starters are playing against the opponents starters while the bench people are often playing the opponents bench players.

Mozy-76er Fan wrote:You need to factor when people play. The starters are playing against the opponents starts while the bench people are often playing the opponents bench players.

That is the key point regarding +/-

You can't just look at +/- and say Lou is better than Green based on that stat.

Let's assume we start Green, Iguodala and Evans vs. Boston's trio of Allen, Pierce and KG. Each of our guys may have a negative +/-. Now say Lou comes in about 8 min into the game and Eddie House enters for Boston. Say Lou winds up +5, you can't simply say Lou played better than Green, or whoever, and deserves more minutes. All that might tell you is our bench guys are better than Boston's bench guys. Bench guys play less minutes so their intensity level should be higher too since they better not be getting tired out there. Just cause a guy might be +5 in 16-18 minutes doesn't mean he can sustain that level and have a +10 or higher if he was given 32-36 MPG. It's very possible if given more minutes, his +/- would actually go down.

Ultimately, I think +/- is a pretty useless stat for a lot of other reasons too. It might be Ok when comparing starters who play 36+ MPG, but not when comparing a starter to a bench guy or just someone who plays 20 minutes vs. someone who plays close to 40.

This stat has been so well received that the NBA is looking at adding the power play next season.

freshie2 wrote:This stat has been so well received that the NBA is looking at adding the power play next season.

And add the shoot out (take turns playing 1:1) if the game is tied at the end of OT.