The Elton Brand effect

[Phillyboy]

It's been about a month now since Ed Stefanski had the defining moment of his career and ushered in the Elton Brand era. The next great era of our franchise.

Certainly no offense intended but from reading many of the posts since then it occurs to me that some of you don't quite yet understand just what our team has now become and how the added dynamic will change everything. I say this because many of the suggestions and trades I see proposed are not fully taking into account the impact of Elton Brand in the decision making process.

I assume there are a few on this board who are too young to remember Charles Barkley, more that don't remember Moses and many more who never saw Wilt play. For those too young or for those it's just been a long time and have forgotten how good basketball becomes with a skilled big man you're in for a 5 year treat in Elton Brand.

The addition of a low post threat who can score, rebound, pass and defend changes the landscape in basketball. The Sixers of 2007 were surprisingly good and forged thier success with an uptempo style well suited for the young slashers. And it seems to me that many of the suggestions come from the mindset of last year's team.

An example of mindset- To those fathers out there. Do you remember the time leading up to your first kid's birth? Everyone kept telling you that your life will change forever and you listened and you thought about it but until that day came you never REALLY knew just how much change! You thought you were ready but truly you were caught by surprise. Pleasantly surprised but a lot more work than you originallt planned.

Although the above is an exaggerated example this same flavor of mindset (obviously to a lesser degree) can apply to your beloved basketball team. We now have Elton Brand and we should now have a clock ticking.

A 3 years (or less) clock to our first NBA championship in a generation.

This team will continue to run but they'll play more half court centered around the low post. Elton Brand will be the first option and the face of this team. The players around him must be the right blend long term or else we'll come up short of our goal as so many other teams that got "close but no cigar".

This is why I question a long term committment to Igoudala but I'll come back to him. Not just Igoudala but everyone as a team needs to be looked at as a package (talent and salary) over the next 3 year span vs. the other dozen or so teams that also have championship hopes as they build thier teams. For years we talked about building around a star but this time we can talk with a real chance of success in our hearts.

I though it might be fun if we talked about a three year plan together and see if we can create and manage the plan with the proper blend of talent and cap savvy to pull it off.

To formulate a plan you first set the objective. Win an NBA championship in 3 years or less. Done.

Next we look at assumptions, constraints and risks to better define our path from here to there. I'll start with a couple in each category and I hope you guys will join in to fill it out.

By the time we're done we might be able to put together a pretty good plan for a bunch of ameteurs.

Assumptions

1. Elton Brand is 100%. This is an assumption that if he's not the plan goes kerplunk and kerplooey from the moment an injury happens. (This also belongs in the risk category and if this thread grows legs we can plan for this risk later)

2. Thad Young will become star material during the life of the plan.

3. This is probably Andre Miller's last year here.

4. Lou Williams will be a starting guard during the life of the plan.

5. Speights and/or Smith will develop into starter quality during the life of the plan

Constraints

1. We will probably be at or over cap during the life of the plan

2. Any move we might want to make we should consider long term money for Young, Speights and Smith before making it

3. The current champ resides in our division. To have the best chance of advancement in the playoffs you need to grab a top seed which means winning our division needs to be a phase one deliverable. (We can also use the C's as an early benchmark as we evaluate our plan for progress)

4. Right in the middle of our plan comes the big FA year of 2010. Our competition may change (perhaps drastically)

Risks

1. As stated earlier, EB's health is critical path

2. Signing Igoudala to long term big money. (You knew I'd get here sooner or later)

3. Andre Miller's contract (risks are opportunities as well. If we're going to expand our list then we need to see things in the future that can be exploited for our advantage) Expiring contract either has trade value or cap value. Cap value means that if we keep our payroll reasonable we can elect to use our MLE if needed during the life of the plan or similar move that would add salary

By no means is this complete so help me out.

[tk76]

Are you assuming the Sixers will be willing to freely spend above the tax?

I would guess they would be if they are contenders, but then again wasn't the team recently for sale? If the team is willing to go over the tax then the whole Iguodala contract mess simply becomes a question of whether he can be a complementary star next to Brand, as opposed to finatial issues- since they will be over the cap regardless of what he signs for- but his signing will effect where they are in relation to the tax.

[geiger]

The league has just changed so much over the the last few decades. For one, there are two types of free agency, whereas in Wilt's days, free agency as we know it did not exist. Secondly, it's legal to play zone defense today, which can limit impact of post players. Thirdly, it's very difficult to make trades under today's CBA and there is both a salary cap, and a luxury tax - things that did not exist in the past. Finally, while Band is a great player and a decent passer, he is not in the same league as the three players you mentioned earlier, and no where near the passer or ball handler that Barkley was (also no where near the rebounder, but a far better defensive player).

I'm not in the least bit trying to belittle what Stefanski has done to date - I think he's done a steallar job. But his job here on out is a lot more difficult. It's always easier to take the step from being a just out of the playoffs team to being a second round team, than it is to take the leap from merely being a playoff team, to becoming a bona fide championship contender. Most teams who try that leap, never make it. And because of the cap and luxury tax, as well as some bad contracts Stefanski has inherited, his job is that much harder.

[tk76]

I think the biggest canges are somewhat out of Ed's hands (but Mo will have an impact.) Just how good can Young, Lou, Iguodala and Speight become in the next 3 years? If they all reach their potential then the team only needs to make minor MLE type moves to be a contender. If not then the team is likely stuck in the good but not great level unless they shake things up with another major move (Miller at the dealine or even Iguodala or Young since they all have value.)

[Sixersftw]

I agree wholeheartedly tk. I'm of the mindset that most of the pieces are potentially there. They all just have question marks. Can Lou be a point guard? Thad's handle, Iguodala's first step/3 ball. ect. ect.

Also, I think Miller will be a big problem down the road just because we, and by we I mean all the fans and fast Eddie, have no idea whats going on in his head. but we have a whole thread or 2 about that.

[geiger]

Agreed again. The biggest moves might be ones that are not made - maybe we already have what we need on our roster - maybe Iggy, Thad, Lou, Speights, and even Smith and Daly, all improve and develop into the type of players who can win a title together with Brand.

[Skates]

The PGOTF (point guard of the future) is the biggest question this team is facing right now. Iggy will get paid, but they have obviously not bowed to his every demand or he would be signed already. Hopefully Stefanski will do a deal with him that makes him tradeable next year if the chemistry just isn't there with him at SG. Thad and Speights both have major talent, but will abrely be hitting their primes in three years, nonetheless they will be good players before then. Geiger is right, Brand is a major addition, but he is not a dominant superstar who can carry a team to a CHiP. He is an all-star and Stefanski appears to be trying to build a hybrid of the Pistons model, with stars everywhere, but superstars in short supply, combined with an opportunistic version of the Phoenix style run and gun along with a high pressure defense. Even without Jason Smith we can have a strong bench, and make it even stronger next year when we have some MLE money to sign a couple of more role playing depth pieces (split the MLE, guys who get the whole thing are rarely worth it).

The plan for PGOTF is still unclear to me. Miller is not the likely answer. Maybe Lou W. will take up the mantle, in which case we would be set. But at this point he does not look like a starting PG and even Stefanski speaks of Lou at the 2. I think he is our Vinnie Johnson more than the PGOTF. In my mind the PG position is where Stefanski will have to "make his bones" to use a Sopranos cliche. Does he pull a gem out of a PG rich draft next year or trade up for a top pick? Trade for someone like Hinrich and hope he turns his game around? S&T Miller for a big name like Iverson next summer? To me this is going to be the key for the success of the team over the next 5 years.

[CoachK]

Couldn’t agree with you more about the success of this team depending on who is the PGOTF. That’s assuming that Iggy’s contract gets done. It’s going to be real interesting to see what Stefanski is able to do. PGOTF is the key to the success of a 5 year plan that involves Brand. If a championship isn’t done in that time frame it will be time to start all over again.

[geiger]

That's the case with any team in today's NBA. Everyone works with at most, a 5 year time frame. Players get older, players become free agents, players get injured. No one can guarantee they will be contenders beyond a 5 year plan because they simply might lose players to free agency.

We need talent and guys who fit well together and compliment one another's games. Whether that means re-signing Miller to another 2 years, drafting another PG, making a trade, or handing the reighs over to Lou Williams, remains to be seen. But this team is very much a work in progress. We know they aren't a legitimate contender yet. However, they do have potential to improve from within, including Iguodala, presuming he's re-signed, Young, Smith, Speights, Willliams, and even Dalembert.

[monks]

If we're looking at a "5 year plan," as the OP said, the next point guard for Philly after Miller just can't be a younger player. Pulling someone out of a draft next year may work, assuming someone with a chance to be good like drops...right now the Sixers aren't looking at anything lower than a late teens-early 20s pick barring any trades. An older college point like Darren Collison or Ty Lawson could come in and perform right off the bat, but after '09 it'd be counterproductive to throw a young, inexperienced PG into the fire with guys like Young, Iggy, Smith, Speights and Lou who haven't even even hit their prime yet...that's why Miller had such a good year and a half with Philly so far. They needed a vet to set them up and he was more than happy to oblige.

But back to the main point: Elton Brand will have a very similar effect here in Philly that Rasheed Wallace did in Detroit - assuming Stefanski is trying to emulate the Pistons model as Skates said - in that he is good enough that defenses have to respect him out to 15-17 feet, and inside the paint he demands double teams. That opens up shots for the guards, and easy baskets for whoever's playing alongside him in the frontcourt. It probably won't show in stats like points or rebounds, but I can easily see the FG percentages rising just by him being on the court instead of Reggie Evans.

[freshie2]

But back to the main point: Elton Brand will have a very similar effect here in Philly that Rasheed Wallace did in Detroit - assuming Stefanski is trying to emulate the Pistons model as Skates said - in that he is good enough that defenses have to respect him out to 15-17 feet, and inside the paint he demands double teams.

I never thought I'd see a post comparing the similarities of Rasheed Wallace and Elton Brand...one player maximizes his physical tools and is the ideal role model for the league, and the other is so combustable that most teams don't have enough veteran leaders to minimize the negative impact. That being said, I can see your point...except I think Brand needs to do more there than Wallace was ever called upon to do in Detroit.

[WARCRIMEZ]

I had no idea Philly fans had such a down to earth perspective on things. I'm a Raps fan, so as you can imagine, I know what it's like to see ignorant posters who can't keep a level head during times of change. I check alot of the boards on a regular basis whenever something happens just to see the fans' perspective on things. I'm really quite pleased with philly fans, you seem to all know your $hit.

To get to the topic, I'm not convinced that Elton Brand can lead this team to a title, right away...but if a few of your guys develop as expected, your lineup will be strong for years. Miller is a weak link, though. He's fine for what you're doing right now, but I think once this whole thing plays out and you find out who your core guys are for the long term (obviously aside from iggy and elton) you'll have assets anyways. Money might be tight but you definately have the assets to fill whatever hole appears if that does happen. I think the team is solid in the first place, so you really are in a situation where you can sit back and watch it all happen and evaluate it. Good luck!

[Dedicated_76ers_fan]

Okay, since when has Rasheed "Cancer" Wallace EVER commanded a double team? I highly doubt a jump shooting PF could command double teams. Did we ever double Rasheed even when he was killing us? Hell no. Rasheed, like all of the other Piston players is a complimentary piece. Rasheed will never attract a double team in his NBA career. Certainly not for the Pistons, which have mulitple scorers.

Now Elton Brand with his low post game, WILL command a double team not to mention his jumper ability. That makes him 10X What Rasheed Wallace is. If Brand wins a championship, his consistent numbers will make him a second ballet hall of famer. Maybe a first if the HOF class is just right. Rasheed in the hall? Even his title doesn't justify it. He'll go down as an AS that could've been alot more had he ever developed both his game and atttitude towards it.

Rasheed created shots because he was a good offensive player. Elton creates shots because he has decent court vision and passing skills. Do you see how utterly different these two are? If not. This is my ranking of the top 5 forwards in the game.

1-Tim Duncan
2-Kevin Garnett(Not his fault Kevin McHale only just got a clue in '06)
3-Amare Stoudemire
4-Elton Brand
5-Chris Webber(Yes, he lagged off here in Philly and for the rest of his career. But from his time in Sacramento, he easily was #2-3 back in the day on this list).

[monks]

Okay, since when has Rasheed "Cancer" Wallace EVER commanded a double team? I highly doubt a jump shooting PF could command double teams. Did we ever double Rasheed even when he was killing us? Hell no. Rasheed, like all of the other Piston players is a complimentary piece. Rasheed will never attract a double team in his NBA career. Certainly not for the Pistons, which have mulitple scorers.

Now Elton Brand with his low post game, WILL command a double team not to mention his jumper ability. That makes him 10X What Rasheed Wallace is. If Brand wins a championship, his consistent numbers will make him a second ballet hall of famer. Maybe a first if the HOF class is just right. Rasheed in the hall? Even his title doesn't justify it. He'll go down as an AS that could've been alot more had he ever developed both his game and atttitude towards it.

My argument was about Rasheed the player at his best (which wasn't very often, unfortunately) - going from Portland where he was relied on to be a 20ppg scorer night in and night out - to having the convenience of deferring to teammates and stepping up as needed.

The first year Rasheed got into Detroit, he did wonders for the flow of the team's offense. Did he merit double teams? Maybe not, but who was guarding Ben Wallace that tightly? That was my point, and I should have pointed it out more: Sam Dalembert will get easier baskets with a skilled offensive player beside him, the wings will get more open looks when they double down low, and the point guard/power forward combo of Brand and Dre Miller will flourish because their pick and roll/pick and pop will be very tough to defend.

The year they got Sheed, the Pistons won the NBA title, adding no other major pieces. Detroit didn't get out and run very often under Coach Brown, but they were able to with a respectable half court game. I do think Brand will need to still be the #1 option, but if Iggy can play to his contract and Brand plays the way he always has, the half-court offensive game will be much improved from last season.

[Phillyboy]

It seems my thread has gotten a bit off course. The plan at 3 years is for the first title.

It's obvious with the Igoudala signing that the Sixers are crafting a team where the key components will be together for multiple seasons. This strategy has had it's successes.

Also with the Igoudala signing, the Sixers will assume the risk of his contract I mentioned earlier. I sure hope he's been working on his jumper.

TK- To your ealier question we can assume that we can spend between salary cap and luxury tax for planning purposes.

To the PGOTF issue- one possibility is that the next starting PG is already here. A backcourt of Williams and Igoudala gives us a pair of combo guards both with passing, ballhandling and scoring skills. By the deadline we should be able to make that determination. If Lou isn't ready we may be able to make a move to get a full time PG. My preference would be that Lou becomes a starting guard.

Haven't heard from any of the old heads on the board. Won't you guys please offer an opinion? Add something to the plan?

[Sixerscan]

I assume there are a few on this board who are too young to remember Charles Barkley, more that don't remember Moses and many more who never saw Wilt play.

Who's Wilt?

The shot we have at winning a title is some superstar gets fed up with his situation and we can trade Miller's expiring for him, then Lou becomes a quality starting point and/or Thad becomes a monster sooner than expected.

My plan is let Eddie do his thing and enjoy the Elton Brand era.

Oh and complain when things go badly. Can't forget that part.

[bebopdeluxe]

Phillyboy:

You KNOW my plan for the PGOTF...

AI for the MLE.



Seriously...I am really hoping that the Bulls sign Gordon, because it is hard to imagine that they will be able to keep him and Hinrich on the roster for long. That deal probably cannot be made until midway through the season, but it is one that I would take a long look at. And while I am not adverse to seeing if Lou can handle the point, I think that I like him better in his 6th man/"microwave" role as a combo guard...although I am open to considering the possibility...and Lou would probably be option 1 if we just let Miller expire at the end of the year.

As far as Miller is concerned, I see no need to extend him right now. Even if you want to keep him, why not wait until next summer? If the Sixers go deep in the playoffs (at least the ECF), then things probably worked out well, and I would expect that Miller will be open to staying. If he tires again - like he did by the end of the Detroit series - then I don't want to be locked into him for another 2-3 years. There will be other options...Lou...Hinrich...and perhaps even...

You-know-who for the you-know-what.

[Dedicated_76ers_fan]

With Peter Lukko taking over more and more of the Chairman responsibilities(and it's about time since all Ed Snider cares about IS the Flyers), it looks very likely that A.I for the MLE would possibly be offered. And A.I has said all along about how he wants to come back. And I believe him. Do you think a guy of A.I's nature just leaves things hanging? Nah, it'd be more of his motto to talk to Cheeks, King on the phone or something and work it out. A.I wants to come back to a city he's played in for nearly all of his career. And he naturally wants to work things out with cheeks. Also, Ed Stefanski shares no bad blood with him. I can see AI in Philadelphia, and that would be one of the biggest bargains in all of sports.

[freshie2]

I don't picture this team as a championship contender with Miller at the point. If they can somehow upgrade the point with a better defender and 3 pt shooter, then they may have a better shot. Is that player Lou WIlliams?? Not sure. The timing for their best run is probably in 2 years when Thad and Iguodala are more fully developed, Sam is nearing a contract year, and Brand is still playing at a high level...the variable is the PG.

Ed may need to be very creative to address that need, but I certainly don't think Iverson is that answer. Veteran minimum...OK. MLE...sure. I still don't think he's the answer for this team at the point.

[Dedicated_76ers_fan]

I don't picture this team as a championship contender with Miller at the point. If they can somehow upgrade the point with a better defender and 3 pt shooter, then they may have a better shot. Is that player Lou WIlliams?? Not sure. The timing for their best run is probably in 2 years when Thad and Iguodala are more fully developed, Sam is nearing a contract year, and Brand is still playing at a high level...the variable is the PG.

Ed may need to be very creative to address that need, but I certainly don't think Iverson is that answer. Veteran minimum...OK. MLE...sure. I still don't think he's the answer for this team at the point.

On the contrary, team defense isn't always about man to man. It's about how how the team as a whole meshes. We were among leaders in steals with Allen Iverson and Iguodala in the back court. And with a tall frontcourt like Dalembert and Brand, that gets further supported then in any time in Iverson's career. Iverson defensively would be a wonderful addition. Hell, you'll see some of those effects with Andre Miller, who averages a decent 1+ SPG. Offensively, AI had the best season of his career last year. And his first yr in Denver wasn't too shabby either. Not to mention that he's never really had a low post presence in his NBA career. AI thrives off of excitement and joy of playing the game. And coming back to Philadelphia in redemption I think he'll have a fantastic ride in his career.