Hollinger's Team Forecast: Philadelphia 76ers

[Mozy-76er Fan]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/trainingc ... recast0809

[Dedicated_76ers_fan]

Hollinger is a stat freak, as shown numerous times when he criticized Dalembert, yet Dally was one of the top-10 centers in the league. So his analysis isn't really that much of one. I hate how he has Detroit ahead of Orlando. It's true that Orlando doesn't have rebounding and PG play. But Orlando does have post play and shooting and is always a threat for a 50+ win season. As for Detroit, they're done. With no 5 in the middle and Rasheed getting older, they will depend more on their perimeter defense then ever before. They may make the playoffs, but they didn't go 0-3 in the ECF for no reason. They need an overhaul.

[geiger]

Daly was not one of the top 10 centers in the league. Detrois is far from done and is better than Orlando precisely because they have poor PG play and lack defense and rebounding. Detroit not only will make the playoffs but likely will have the second best record in the Eastern Conference and will win their division. And no one goes 0-3 in a 7 game series. As I recall, that series went 6 games and Pistons won 2, which is exactly as many as the Lakers won against the Celtics, making the Pistons the third best team in the NBA last season.

[The Guilty Party]

While I'm excited as all hell about the upcoming season, I'm not so sure that I'm buying into us finishing with the 3rd best record in the East. Either way, it's a nice change of pace to see "experts" predicting us to do something other than finish in the lottery.

[CoachK]

I don't know if Dalembert was a top 10 center but I guess he wasn't that far off. Dalembert was around 15 IMO. Detroit is far from being done. IMO Detroit has enough to possibly unseat the Celtics as the top team in the East Conference.

[geiger]

Agreed on that. But being 15 places you right in the middle and Hollinger merely stated that even while he improved his play last season, Dalembert was still a bit overpaid. He didn't bash him or state where he should be ranked on the list. And I actually think he can be a top 10 center this season so long as he concentrates on defense and realizes that he doesn't have to fire up a shot the second he gets the ball. I can see his scoring going down a tiny bit - maybe to 9 to 10 points a game, but his shot blocks and rebounds going up to maybe 3 blocks and 12 rebounds a game. Essentially, he can be a more well rounded Tyson Chandler if he learns how to be consistent and puts in the work on the defensive end as far as positioning and help defense.

[ankle420breaker]

Agreed on that. But being 15 places you right in the middle and Hollinger merely stated that even while he improved his play last season, Dalembert was still a bit overpaid. He didn't bash him or state where he should be ranked on the list. And I actually think he can be a top 10 center this season so long as he concentrates on defense and realizes that he doesn't have to fire up a shot the second he gets the ball. I can see his scoring going down a tiny bit - maybe to 9 to 10 points a game, but his shot blocks and rebounds going up to maybe 3 blocks and 12 rebounds a game. Essentially, he can be a more well rounded Tyson Chandler if he learns how to be consistent and puts in the work on the defensive end as far as positioning and help defense.

If he can average 12 boards and 3 blocks per game this year, and we have a good record, then he just might have an outside chance of fulfilling his goal of being an all star.

[geiger]

We'll have to have a stellar record, but it will be easier to accomplish in the East. Even then, it will likely take either an injury or the team taking 3 centers. Dwight Howard is the starter. If Jermaine O'Neal is healthy, Dalembert won't be able to beat him out. But after that, his competition is Andrew Bogut, Zyndrunas Illgauskas, Rasheed Wallace, Eddy Curry, Emeaka Okafor, Brendan Haywood and Al Horford. Ben Wallace made it not soley because of his numbers and how good his team was, but also because his defense was widely acclaimed as being dominant. We have yet to see anything close from Dalembert, but he has enough tools to be very good defensively, and ability to put up similar rebounding and shot blocking numbers with more points. I don't quite see All-Star out of him, but if he can be good defensively and give us 8 to 10 points, with 12 rebounds and 3 blocks, we'll be a very good team.

[Dedicated_76ers_fan]

Agreed on that. But being 15 places you right in the middle and Hollinger merely stated that even while he improved his play last season, Dalembert was still a bit overpaid. He didn't bash him or state where he should be ranked on the list. And I actually think he can be a top 10 center this season so long as he concentrates on defense and realizes that he doesn't have to fire up a shot the second he gets the ball. I can see his scoring going down a tiny bit - maybe to 9 to 10 points a game, but his shot blocks and rebounds going up to maybe 3 blocks and 12 rebounds a game. Essentially, he can be a more well rounded Tyson Chandler if he learns how to be consistent and puts in the work on the defensive end as far as positioning and help defense.

If your asking for Dalembert's numbers to go down, then do move them down further. He averaged PRECISELY 10 a game last yr. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/p ... ayerId=991

He doesn't "fire" the second he gets the ball. That's a vast overstatement making me think of you as Rickypryor. That 15 foot shot of his is semi automatic and I'm perfectly fine with that kind of offense.
You see, people like Hollinger don't watch the games, they read stats. I watched the games. Dalembert was TREMENDOUS. How many of you expected Dalembert to stand toe to toe with Tim Duncan in the final minutes of a close game? Dalembert's positioning is still poor but it's much further along then where we were with him the past few seasons. And Help Defense? That was why Dalembert was fouling out all those years ago. Because he had to overcommit.

A Center is like your goal tender in Soccer. And Dalembert averaged 2.5 BPG. Quick, name how many centers averaged 2.5 amongst those you named. Since this post is getting too big, I'll conclude on a later post.(People complain about my post lengths).

[geiger]

A job of a starting center is much more than blocking shots. Tim Duncan averaged less blocks than Dalembert, does that mean that Dalembert was a better player than Duncan? A better defensive player? No. That's ludicrous. And Dalembert was a black hole when he got the ball. He fired up shots. He averaged 0.5 assists in over 30 minutes a game and his assist to turnover ration is 1-4 - shockingly poor for a starting player.

I'm pretty sure Hollinger watches games as well and I don't know what your definition of tromendous is, but Brandan Haywood put up similar numbers as Dalembert in less minutes and makes $5.5 million to Dalembert's $11.5, going to Hollinger's point that Dalembert, like Willie Green, was overpaid by Billy King, but finally started earing at least some of that money last season. If your definition of TREMENDOUS is being in the middle of the pack as far as centers go, then yes, our entire team was TREMENDOUS.

[Dedicated_76ers_fan]

A job of a starting center is much more than blocking shots. Tim Duncan averaged less blocks than Dalembert, does that mean that Dalembert was a better player than Duncan? A better defensive player? No. That's ludicrous. And Dalembert was a black hole when he got the ball. He fired up shots. He averaged 0.5 assists in over 30 minutes a game and his assist to turnover ration is 1-4 - shockingly poor for a starting player.

I'm pretty sure Hollinger watches games as well and I don't know what your definition of tromendous is, but Brandan Haywood put up similar numbers as Dalembert in less minutes and makes $5.5 million to Dalembert's $11.5, going to Hollinger's point that Dalembert, like Willie Green, was overpaid by Billy King, but finally started earing at least some of that money last season. If your definition of TREMENDOUS is being in the middle of the pack as far as centers go, then yes, our entire team was TREMENDOUS.

Excuse me, but we're talking about a STARTING CENTER. He's not supposed to be our assists leader or even productive from that area. That's what you call a "bonus". If that's what your judging Dalembert's offensive game on then I have to question your evaulation process.

We are not seriously comparing Brandan Haywood to Dalembert, are we? Are we?

NBA Starting Big men averaging at least 10/10:
Yao Ming(22/10)
Dwight Howard(20/14)
Tim Duncan(19/11)
Tyson Chandler(11/11)
Zach Randolph(17/10)
Al Jefferson(21/11)
Andrew Bogut(14/10)
Samuel Dalembert(10/10)

From my count, only 8 starters have averaged at least 10/10. For the sake of argument. Zach Randolph is not a better offensive player then Dalembert or any of the other players on this list for that matter. He is strictly a chucker. And a cancerous one at that. There's no doubt that
Ming, Howard, Duncan, Jefferson are all better then Dalembert. I can't fault Andrew Bogut for Milwaukee's piss poor perimeter defense. But Andre Miller is just barely above average and many have viewed Iguodala's defense as declining. So Dalembert barely had more to work with then Bogut but had a far better defensive season.

Only Dwight Howard's historic season of 14 RPG is far above Dalembert's. In terms of rebounding. Dalembert's up there with greats like Yao Ming and Tim Duncan and upcoming superstars like Al Jefferson. Now, onto that Brendan Haywood guy who we're (now foolishly eh?) comparing to Dalembert. He's averaging 10/7. 7 is a far cry from 10. And it should be noted that usual starting center Etan Thomas has been down for a while with injury. So with him healthy, Haywood would have to compete to be able to maintain his career high in minutes(27.6) that's a 4.2 MPG+ from his career. Only in the 04-05 year did Haywood average anywhere close to 27 MPG. It was a 5 MPG increase from last year. Now, as for Dalembert's MPG the last 2 seasons. Dalembert's minutes increased by a meager 2 MPG. And that's likely because his FPG was the lowest it's ever been in his career(3.2).

And the offensive cancer Dalembert only averages 8 shots a game and made 4 of them. Resulting in a 50 percent shooter from the floor. Far from cancerous I'd say.

[Sixerscan]

A job of a starting center is much more than blocking shots. Tim Duncan averaged less blocks than Dalembert, does that mean that Dalembert was a better player than Duncan? A better defensive player? No. That's ludicrous. And Dalembert was a black hole when he got the ball. He fired up shots. He averaged 0.5 assists in over 30 minutes a game and his assist to turnover ration is 1-4 - shockingly poor for a starting player.

I'm pretty sure Hollinger watches games as well and I don't know what your definition of tromendous is, but Brandan Haywood put up similar numbers as Dalembert in less minutes and makes $5.5 million to Dalembert's $11.5, going to Hollinger's point that Dalembert, like Willie Green, was overpaid by Billy King, but finally started earing at least some of that money last season. If your definition of TREMENDOUS is being in the middle of the pack as far as centers go, then yes, our entire team was TREMENDOUS.

Excuse me, but we're talking about a STARTING CENTER. He's not supposed to be our assists leader or even productive from that area. That's what you call a "bonus". If that's what your judging Dalembert's offensive game on then I have to question your evaulation process.

We are not seriously comparing Brandan Haywood to Dalembert, are we? Are we?

NBA Starting Big men averaging at least 10/10:
Yao Ming(22/10)
Dwight Howard(20/14)
Tim Duncan(19/11)
Tyson Chandler(11/11)
Zach Randolph(17/10)
Al Jefferson(21/11)
Andrew Bogut(14/10)
Samuel Dalembert(10/10)

From my count, only 8 starters have averaged at least 10/10. For the sake of argument. Zach Randolph is not a better offensive player then Dalembert or any of the other players on this list for that matter. He is strictly a chucker. And a cancerous one at that. There's no doubt that
Ming, Howard, Duncan, Jefferson are all better then Dalembert. I can't fault Andrew Bogut for Milwaukee's piss poor perimeter defense. But Andre Miller is just barely above average and many have viewed Iguodala's defense as declining. So Dalembert barely had more to work with then Bogut but had a far better defensive season.

Only Dwight Howard's historic season of 14 RPG is far above Dalembert's. In terms of rebounding. Dalembert's up there with greats like Yao Ming and Tim Duncan and upcoming superstars like Al Jefferson. Now, onto that Brendan Haywood guy who we're (now foolishly eh?) comparing to Dalembert. He's averaging 10/7. 7 is a far cry from 10. And it should be noted that usual starting center Etan Thomas has been down for a while with injury. So with him healthy, Haywood would have to compete to be able to maintain his career high in minutes(27.6) that's a 4.2 MPG+ from his career. Only in the 04-05 year did Haywood average anywhere close to 27 MPG. It was a 5 MPG increase from last year. Now, as for Dalembert's MPG the last 2 seasons. Dalembert's minutes increased by a meager 2 MPG. And that's likely because his FPG was the lowest it's ever been in his career(3.2).

And the offensive cancer Dalembert only averages 8 shots a game and made 4 of them. Resulting in a 50 percent shooter from the floor. Far from cancerous I'd say.

Why are you boring us with stats when you watched the games?

[geiger]

Not only that, but picking a totally random one like 10 and 10. I guess based on that, Dalembert is better than Chris Bosh, who didn't average 10 and 10. He's also better than Amare Stoudamire. Go Dalembert.

Just a totally uninformed post that made no sense and went no where. Dalembert is not a top 10 center in the NBA and at $11.5 million a year, he's overpaid for what he does. And yes, I am seriously comparing him to Haywood, who is a better offensive player and only a slightly inferior defensive player (Dalembert is a better rebounder, but Haywood makes HALF of what Dalembert does and they are in the same ballpark as players).

[Dedicated_76ers_fan]

I seriously dare you to go to the Washington Fourm and say that. They'd rather have Haywood then Dalembert. They(and I) would laugh, hysterically for that matter. Haywood and Dalembert don't come close. Rebounding and shotblocking. When these two things are done on a consistent basis you have a true center. A True goal keeper. I didn't say that. But indeed, I should have added CB4 and Amare in there. Totally my lack of judgment. But if you were to draft Dalembert knowing his stats, he wouldn't be the 26th pick. More like top-10, 15. That's a HUGE improvement. Now, I'll do this

Starters averaging 8-10 RPG/1.5/2.0 BPG:
Samuel Dalembert(10.5 RPG/2.5 BPG)
Tim Duncan(11.3/2.0 BPG)
Yao Ming(10/2)
Dwight Howard(14/2)
Pao Gasol(8/1.5)
Al Jefferson(11/1.5)
Shaq(9/1.5)

I didn't wanna add too many because of how many forwards/centers average 8 to 9 rebounds. But the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs are amongst the leaders defensively, both their centers average 2 BPG. Even Garnett averaged 9/1.3 BPG. There is critical importance in consistency from bigs. And whether you'd like to admit it or not. Dalembert is among a handful of centers who have that consistency.

Dwight Howard is not a center in the true sense. He should be a Power Forward.

[ankle420breaker]

I seriously dare you to go to the Washington Fourm and say that. They'd rather have Haywood then Dalembert. They(and I) would laugh, hysterically for that matter. Haywood and Dalembert don't come close. Rebounding and shotblocking. When these two things are done on a consistent basis you have a true center. A True goal keeper. I didn't say that. But indeed, I should have added CB4 and Amare in there. Totally my lack of judgment. But if you were to draft Dalembert knowing his stats, he wouldn't be the 26th pick. More like top-10, 15. That's a HUGE improvement. Now, I'll do this

Starters averaging 8-10 RPG/1.5/2.0 BPG:
Samuel Dalembert(10.5 RPG/2.5 BPG)
Tim Duncan(11.3/2.0 BPG)
Yao Ming(10/2)
Dwight Howard(14/2)
Pao Gasol(8/1.5)
Al Jefferson(11/1.5)
Shaq(9/1.5)

I didn't wanna add too many because of how many forwards/centers average 8 to 9 rebounds. But the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs are amongst the leaders defensively, both their centers average 2 BPG. Even Garnett averaged 9/1.3 BPG. There is critical importance in consistency from bigs. And whether you'd like to admit it or not. Dalembert is among a handful of centers who have that consistency.

Dwight Howard is not a center in the true sense. He should be a Power Forward.

Haywood - 10.6 ppg, 7.3rpg, 1.7bpg, 27.8mpg
Dalembert - 10.5ppg, 10.3rpg, 2.3bpg, 33.2mpg

Dalembert is a better rebounder, better shot blocker, and a better fit for our style of play, but to infer that Dalembert is vastly superior to Haywood is far fetched, especially when you seem to ignore the difference in compensation vs. the difference in production between the two players.

[Dedicated_76ers_fan]

One's being paid 5 million, the other, 11 million. I understand that. But here's the thing. If Haywood IS the same type of player with less minutes, then why don't they play him more? Why did he recieve the biggest boost of minutes in his career when a fellow big was injured? Could it possibly be that he's an inferior player? Well, you said it yourself he's a better rebounder, shotblocker, defender. Essentially he's a better center. Dalembert can potentially average 12-14 PPG this season with an big inside like Elton Brand. I think the Dalembert-Brand combo will be the best 4-5 combo in the 21st century since Robinson-Duncan.

[Dedicated_76ers_fan]

One's being paid 5 million, the other, 11 million. I understand that. But here's the thing. If Haywood IS the same type of player with less minutes, then why don't they play him more? Why did he recieve the biggest boost of minutes in his career when a fellow big was injured? Could it possibly be that he's an inferior player? Well, you said it yourself he's a better rebounder, shotblocker, defender. Essentially he's a better center. Dalembert can potentially average 12-14 PPG this season with an big inside like Elton Brand. I think the Dalembert-Brand combo will be the best 4-5 combo in the 21st century since Robinson-Duncan.

[bballin76]

oh god, not another Dalembert debate. He gets way too much attention for the mediocre center that he is.


Anyways...Hollinger's numbers are usually very close. He predicts 50 wins, I'm thinking they'll get 48. This should be a great year with a lot of promise heading into the 2010-2011 season.

[Cookin Baskets]

I think Philly will get 50 plus with 56-26..now way are they only 48 win team. They were a 48 win team when they had A.I,Van Horn as there core and Brown was still the head coach. Are you saying there just as good with Andre Miller,Iggy,Brand,Dalembert and don't underestimate Young he is truly an x-factor. If he can continue to improve which I think he will, then philly should be a good way over 50 wins.

[jmon]

I think Philly will get 50 plus with 56-26..now way are they only 48 win team. They were a 48 win team when they had A.I,Van Horn as there core and Brown was still the head coach. Are you saying there just as good with Andre Miller,Iggy,Brand,Dalembert and don't underestimate Young he is truly an x-factor. If he can continue to improve which I think he will, then philly should be a good way over 50 wins.

That tends to be my belief. This team was a 48 win team, in my opinion, without Brand. They played at that pace for a great part of last season...

I don't know why people think 50 is some sort of stretch. 50 is the minimum in my opinion if this team is hurt, but not decimated, by injuries. If they stay healthy, they should get 50 in their sleep.