RealGM

Elton Brand
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/players/ ... layerId=91

Andre Iguodala
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/players/ ... yerId=2386

Samuel Dalembert
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/players/ ... ayerId=991

Andre Miller
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/players/ ... ayerId=557

Thaddeus Young
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/players/ ... yerId=3244

Reggie Evans
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/players/ ... yerId=1828

Willlie Green
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/players/ ... yerId=2004

Royal Ivey (Note Ivey will be suspended for the first 3 games of the season)
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/players/ ... yerId=2387

Donyell Marshall
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/players/ ... ayerId=512

Theo Ratliff
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/players/ ... ayerId=687

Kareem Rush
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/players/ ... yerId=1725

Jason Smith
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/players/ ... yerId=3232

Louis Williams
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/players/ ... yerId=2799

Marresse Speights
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/players/ ... yerId=3460

These scouting reports used to only be available to Insider members. Not sure if they will change it. If for some reason anyone has a problem with any of the links, let me know and I'll post the content of each scouting report.

Thanks for the links. Always like to read Hollinger's analysis.

I have to say, overall, they are pretty positive. In particular, note that role players like Willie Green and Reggie Evans, overpaid as they might be, are a much better fit in back up roles.

I like the Young analysis. He spends the whole time saying how Young has big time star written all over him, and then at the very end, says how Young is most comparable at this age to Trevor Ariza?

tk76 wrote:I like the Young analysis. He spends the whole time saying how Young has big time star written all over him, and then at the very end, says how Young is most comparable at this age to Trevor Ariza?

It isn't an insult. Ariza's numbers throughout his career have been solid when he is on the court. Coming up with a 20-22 year old to compare to Thad isn't easy.

EDIT: Just realized it was at age. Oops. Still not a bad comparison.

tk76 wrote:I like the Young analysis. He spends the whole time saying how Young has big time star written all over him, and then at the very end, says how Young is most comparable at this age to Trevor Ariza?

There isn't a very big sample size of 6'8" SFs that got regular playing time when they were 19. That most comparable stuff gets more value as players have more established careers.

Hollinger readily admits that his projections get really dicey when there are a limited number of comparables for a players age, height, etc. and I think they are especially unreliable for young guys who can make quantum jumps in effectiveness very quickly. I always thought Ariza would end up being a more prominent player than he has been so far, but he has been in some messed up situations and teams early in his career. Young's actual potential is much higher than Ariza's ever was

Thanks for posting this. I like his articles.. Can we view other teams scouting reports, or is it only for "in" members?

Ohh, my bad, I see it's for insiders only.. Thanks again for posting.

If there is a particular player whose scouting report you want to see, let me know and I'll cut and paste the relevant portion. I think right now, you can go on ESPN.com and go to NBA, teams, rosters and then click on the player you want and Hollinger tab and still see it. Don't think it's for insiders only yet. Last year they let people view them until the season started and I think it's the same story now.

Looking at Hollinger's work i think he did a fairly good job at describing the players on this team. Overall it looks very good, but the one scary part is the conundrum that is the Andre Miller situation. His game has never been built on speed and he has always been able to compensate for his limited speed and quickness, but this does not mean he can't have a precipitous decline in a year or two. His game is not built on pure speed, but it is built on the speed he has. When he starts slowing down he may not have far to go to drop from being very effective to being very limited. A guy like Louis Williams will lose speed in his early thirties, but has a lot more speed to lose and will still be considerably faster than Miller at the same age. Guys depend on craftiness to make up for lost physical abilities as they get older, but Miller has pretty much maxed out on the craftiness scale already. He also can't call back on a great shooting stroke like veteran guards often do. It will be very interesting to see how Stefanski approaches this issue, Ideally I would like to give him a 2 year deal and start devloping a young PG from next year's allegedly PG rich draft.

I've been trying to judge his decline, but he's a really hard guy to compare to previous players. How many PG's are there who had no long distance shot, while not relying on their athelticism? Most guys with questionable outside shots were either defensive specialists (Eric Snow), or had insane athleticism which was a major part of their game.

It's hard to imagine a guy with literally no 3 point shot, minimal athleticism, and average at best defense remaining productive into his mid to late 30's. But then again, I have no real basis to compare him to.

That is true. He's a puzzling player. He always shows up in bad shape, has no range on his jumper, and a total lack of speed. Yet he has a career year last year while putting up 17 a game. He did shoot a career high too, with a lot of points coming off little post ups, mid-range jumpers, and floaters in the lane. He has an ugly, but effective game and in spite of being out of shape, he seems like a guy who can run all day long. It's a strange combination.

I don't expect him to have another career year, to shoot 50% or to put up over 17 points a game. But I think he can shoot about 46% and give us 14 points and a little more assists than he had last season.

The question I suppose is not so much for this season as to how many more years of being a productive starter we can expect out of a guy who will be 33 this season and whether it makes sense to give him an extension for longer than 1 year and at what price.

For some reason, 35 seems to be that magic year where PGs just have a drop off in play. Payton did. Kidd looks washed up. It's a huge risk to sign a PG to an extension past 35.

Maurice Cheeks, Avery Johnson come to mind as possible players to compare him to. I didn't see Cheeks whatsoever though and didn't see a ton of Avery in my day, so its really just a guess.

At Miller's age, Avery put up 3 more years without any major drop off statistically, although he was regularly hurt.

Cheeks showed decline the previous year before starting a season at 32.

Mark Jackson, kinda similar I guess, had his best seaosn at 36 since he was 31, so yeah... I have no idea.

Jackson didn't have a career season though. He was a shade of his former self by 33, and had a brief spurt with Toronto at 36 of being relatively productive, but was no where near the player he was in his younger days. Miller on the other hand had a career season at 32.

Avery also had a huge drop off in his later years, but I know he came into the league later so I'm not sure how hold he was when he was still a starting caliber player with San Antonio. His last good season was 99-00. After that he was a back up player.

I'm sure we can find a few examples throughout NBA history of PGs who were still very good into their mid to late 30's, but statisticallys speaking, those numbers are very, very rare. So it's a huge risk. The risk grows even more for guys who are not very good shooters and who aren't fitness conscious. Miller, never a speedster or a shooter, can go from a highly productive player to a back-up quality PG with just a tiny drop off in his first step and stamina. Will he? I don't know. He had a career season at 32, which isn't the norm and he's on the bigger side as far as PGs go, has always been in the same relatively poor shape and yet capable of running all day, and has nice post moves. So maybe he's the guy who bucks trends. And there is also the question of how many years he is looking for. Is it a one year extension, two, three - five?

It's a difficult decision for Stefanski. No doubt about it.

People are making good points, and I agree its a tough call. Its good to see a discussion where people are making good arguments without being argumentative.

Miller reminds me of a Jamie Moyer in that he relies more on change in speed and craftiness then athletic ability. That said, Moyer doesn't have to guard opposing PG's who are often among the best athletes in the world.

So on the positive side, some of Miller's strengths will not decline rapidly with age. His ability to run a team and make the right pass- which won't decline (he is not reliant on breaking down teams with his quickness like some PG's.) He also is physically strong and plays with power for his position- this won't decline for a while. Lastly, he pushed the pace with passing more than dribbling- again a skill that does not decline.

People accurately point to Miller's lack of range, but he does have a decent midrange jumper and a good (and somewhat rare in todays NBA) in between game. I expect his scoring from 10-15 feet could even improve over the next few years as he continues to get more effective with his short jumper. Remember, MJ switched from being a slasher to a midrange scorer as he aged, and many bigs who evolved from power post scorers into midrange jumpshooters aged well.

The biggest issue I see is defense. Nobody can stay in front of certain NBA guards like CP3, AI and TJ Ford, but as Miller loses a step he might end up being routinely smoked by even run of the mill PG's like the Mo Williams and Jameer Nelsons of the world. If Miller can't stay in front of his man the opposition will be at a huge advantage running their offense. Hopefully, Miller can continue to play off opposing PG's- which really only gets him burned on jumpers- but that can only get you so far. Miller has always given up a step on many opposing PG's, so hopefully he can continue to adapt, but that's the area the worries me, and defense is 1/2 the game.

Keep in mind that Miller knows how to use his strength and positioning to be an effective defender- and is a better defensive pG than Lou right now- despite Lou's amazing athletic ability- because Miller knows how to avoid picks and anticipate his opponents moves. There is no way to no when Miller's lack of quickness is too much to overcome, but there's no set clock on when that will happen.

Ideally I'd love to see Miller progress to being a back-up guard over the next 2-3 years, but Lou has to step up and show he can learn to be an effective PG (and maybe Iguodala progressing as a point foreward could help.) If Lou cannot ever start at PG- which is possible- then the Sixers need to free up some of Miller's salary to go out and get an established PG, so I doubt Miller stays unless he or Lou are the full time starter. I also wonder how willing Miller would be to turn over the riegns to Lou. he was a good soldier last year when Lou closed out games in the 4th, but I'm sure he wants his minutes to stay 30+.

Another issue is salary. If Stefanski views Miller as a back up PG in two seasons, he obviously can't pay him more than he's worth, especially considering that we will have to re-sign Thad Young and Marreesse Speights to what will likely be sizeable deals. Dalembert will be expiring, Smith, we'll have another first rounder or two. It's hard work to build a team and be able to build for the future as well and leave enough space for trades and improvement. Will be a critical move, however it goes.

Since this summer I've had a suspicion that Sam might be the odd man out. I'm not sayng this year, but in 2 years he'll be a big expiring with value that could be used to get a good PG or shooter.

I see Speights aseventually taking Sam's spot (even if he is a bit undersized at C.) Unless Brand looks to be declining, I expect Speights and Brand to be starting, with Evans and Smith providing offensive and defensive options off the bench. Should make for a good rotation even without Sam.

tk76 wrote:Since this summer I've had a suspicion that Sam might be the odd man out....

It'll be an interesting call on that... In two years, both Dalembert and Evans will be expiring 30-year-old big men (okay... 29 for Dalembert). Brand will be 31 and the Sixers will know more of what they have in Smith (he'll be a restricted free agent the summer after) and Speights. If the team hasn't come together and met expectations... that'll be the time to do something.

As far as Miller, I share the same concern that tk does about his defense... if he loses a step, he could become a liability of that end. I hope Ed waits for the first few months to see how the team gels (and to see if Miller can match his play from last season) before attempting to extend his contract.

It could be that we have 4 players expire with 2 others becoming restricted after the 10-11 season.

Hopefully the team has made a finals appearance by then. I agree with you that the level of success will effect whether there will be wholesale changes with the vets in a few years or not. Should be a great ride.