Transfer Thread 2022/23

[Mamba81p]

Endrick to Real Madrid seems to be done for 70m euros.

I've heard that he's an incredible talent, but I haven't seen him play. I wonder if anyone else has any insight on this kid. That's a lot of money for a 16 year old. I remember asking a similar question about Vinicius Jr when he signed with Real as a teenager, and he's certainly proven his worth since then.

I have seen him play at Palmeiras. Very small sample size. He came as a asub 3 times with not much of an impact, in his 4th game he subbed in at half time and he scored 2 goals. After that he started in the next 3 games. He seems like the typical Brazilian FW: Quick, great technique/dribbling, and unlike others he seems to have great finishing ability, but the sample size being so small it's hard to tell. I did not see him play at youth level, so I can't talk about that.

I never saw an interview with him, to pick his brains, as I think this is critical for development of a player: work ethic, intelligence etc, so I think it's very hard for us to judge a player from outside. OJ Mayo looked amazing at 15 too.

So many things can go wrong at such a young age, but I think the biggest endorsement for him is that Real Madrid think he is worth 70m. They seem to get things right when it comes to scouting lately.

As a Palmeiras supporter I can give you a good overview.

Endrick is amazing, both on and off the pitch. The player he reminds me A LOT is Romario. Both are small, skilled, with superb positioning and scoring instinct. The things Endrick were doing in the youth levels were unheard. Not even Neymar or Ronaldo did what he was doing. At 15 yo he was the best player in the most important U-22 national tournament (Copa São Paulo). He scored in every single championship game he played.

Off the field he also shines, as he´s being touted since 12 yo, with a huge team of psychologists, nutricians, physicians, etc. He´s also being by an European coach (Abel Ferreira) who puts a lot of emphasys in tactics. He´s training every day with at least 10-12 players with NT level.

EUR 72M will be a bargain for him if he stays in the same development courve he´s right now.

Thank you for this.
The scoring instinct looked very good for a 16 year old, but for me it was a very small sample size since I only saw him for the senior team.
Good to hear things are going well off the field. I never saw an interview with, and I don't speak Portuguese anyway.

[wco81]

Wow he had a team of people at 12 years of age?

Surprised one of the big clubs didn't swoop him up into their academies like they did with Messi.

Brazil may be an emerging market economy but apparently big money is there for football player development.

Not surprising if they can sell players still in their teens for tens of millions.

[BarbaGrizz]

Wow he had a team of people at 12 years of age?

Surprised one of the big clubs didn't swoop him up into their academies like they did with Messi.

Brazil may be an emerging market economy but apparently big money is there for football player development.

Not surprising if they can sell players still in their teens for tens of millions.

He was very poor growing up and Palmeiras give his father a job inside the team when he joined Palmeiras, so the family is very grateful to the team. After he started to shine he got a well connected manager who setup all this good environment around him.

As context, right now Brazil have two rich clubs: Palmeiras and Flamengo (former Vini Jr. team). These were the teams that were able to structure their debts and start a new age, Palmeiras with the new stadium and Flamengo with the supporters + youth sales. Recently was approved a new law that allows foreign groups to buy teams, just like in Europe. Ronaldo, John Textor, City Group and Red Bull are some of the investors who already purchased stakes on local teams.

[SgtPepper]

Endrick to Real Madrid seems to be done for 70m euros.

I've heard that he's an incredible talent, but I haven't seen him play. I wonder if anyone else has any insight on this kid. That's a lot of money for a 16 year old. I remember asking a similar question about Vinicius Jr when he signed with Real as a teenager, and he's certainly proven his worth since then.

Madrid are playing a numbers game. Things look cherry and brilliant now with Vini/Fede/Rodrygo, but the bust rate is high with recent controversial failures like Odeegard & Reinier. Buying kids is still cheaper than busting of 1st team purchases, and the odds on a high resale are good.

The main strategic trend showcased is that the best young players in la liga are now being sourced by Madrid from South America more than developing through la liga's club development system, and the decline of the latter is driven by the poor governance decisions by RFEF & Tebas. The secondary trend has been about Madrid betting on these kids because they cannot do Galactico signings now due to nursing the end of the golden generation, better transfer market competition by PSG & Man City, bad tax conditions for world class foreigners. All of their 2022 transfer activity has been a bit of a sideshow considering the biggest hole in the depth chart has been Benzema's successor for 3+ seasons.

Madrid paid 4m euros for odegaard no? and sold him for 30M. The only reason he failed or didn't make it at Madrid too was that Modric and Kroos are literally ageless all time wonders and refuse to fall off and continue their excellence. Just bad timing for him. Net profits like that are good for RM

Modric had a pretty inconsistent 1st half of the season in both 20-21 and 19-20. Benzema also has been rested a lot last season because Barca did so poorly in the league early that Madrid could focus on the CL by the R16 (and even used the 2nd clasico as a Chelsea tactics experiment). The club managed them well but there was luck in that rivals didn't force them to be played as often as peak age starters. In more normal and competitive leagues like this season I think their age will be shown up via inconsistenly. Meanwhile Madrid's most consistent midfielder of the last 3 seasons was sold to Man U...

Odegaard was profitable mostly because he was bought really young, but didn't live near potential. It's similar to one of the many Chelsea sales like KdB, Salah, Sturridge, etc. Ode was developing really well at Sociedad but got recalled for Zizou's final stale season. He wasn't managed to potential and considering upside was much higher than the bottom line, I do consider it a bust for the club. Given how competitive Madrid is, that often means the player is still an incredible footballer.

[GSWFan1994]

Endrick to Real Madrid seems to be done for 70m euros.

I've heard that he's an incredible talent, but I haven't seen him play. I wonder if anyone else has any insight on this kid. That's a lot of money for a 16 year old. I remember asking a similar question about Vinicius Jr when he signed with Real as a teenager, and he's certainly proven his worth since then.

I have seen him play at Palmeiras. Very small sample size. He came as a asub 3 times with not much of an impact, in his 4th game he subbed in at half time and he scored 2 goals. After that he started in the next 3 games. He seems like the typical Brazilian FW: Quick, great technique/dribbling, and unlike others he seems to have great finishing ability, but the sample size being so small it's hard to tell. I did not see him play at youth level, so I can't talk about that.

I never saw an interview with him, to pick his brains, as I think this is critical for development of a player: work ethic, intelligence etc, so I think it's very hard for us to judge a player from outside. OJ Mayo looked amazing at 15 too.

So many things can go wrong at such a young age, but I think the biggest endorsement for him is that Real Madrid think he is worth 70m. They seem to get things right when it comes to scouting lately.

Just saw this Endrick interview and remembered of you guys.

Here you can see some of his personality.

Watch on YouTube

[The_Brecht]

Man Utd spend half a season trying to get Gakpo, only to have him end up at Liverpool. Pretty funny.
High price imo though.

[Baseline81]

Man Utd spend half a season trying to get Gakpo, only to have him end up at Liverpool. Pretty funny.
High price imo though.

Antony was bought for £86 million from the same league. £37 million doesn't seem too high if you consider his price was going to be inflated based on his World Cup performances.

[wco81]

Are there any financial incentives to win the PL as opposed to just getting a CL slot?

Arsenal put in a big bid probably because they're at a better position than they anticipated.

What does a league title get you financially? I would assume most of these clubs sell out their home matches already.

More jersey sales?

[SgtPepper]

^No. The difference in margin between 1st & 4th is ~£5M. That's 5% of Grealish's transfer fee. Source: https://sqaf.club/premier-league-prize-money-distribution/

To be fair, the financial reward of winning all competitions currently pales in comparison to the money the big clubs make as brand businesses. Filling the stadium also has less relation to the competitiveness or quality of the team than the club's ability to price and market, and is one revenue stream of a brand business. Don't underestimate the intangible benefits of competing. The best players in the world in the peak ages will start considering the club as a transfer target if that club starts winning important trophies or qualifying for important competitions. The club can lever its brand to negotiate lower wages with its players. Winning also attracts more lucrative advertiser and partnership deals that grow their revenues a lot.

[wco81]

What are the greatest revenue sources, transfer profits, match tickets, licensed merchandise, TV fees or advertising deals, like logos on kits?

Seems like the big clubs are always buyers, especially at high transfer fees. They may sell and loan out players but those deals don't grab the headlines like these £80 million transfers.

[Mamba81p]

What are the greatest revenue sources, transfer profits, match tickets, licensed merchandise, TV fees or advertising deals, like logos on kits?

Seems like the big clubs are always buyers, especially at high transfer fees. They may sell and loan out players but those deals don't grab the headlines like these £80 million transfers.

It depends on the club but for most clubs the TV money is the biggest revenue source.

https://ir.manutd.com/company-information/business-model.aspx

Manchester United generates more from commercial sector, but that includes a lot of things.

[SgtPepper]

Check out the slide deck here (https://www.slideshare.net/deloitteuk/football-money-league-251407418) for rough revenue breakdowns of the richest 20 clubs last year. To answer your question - the splits among the categories you name vary a lot club to club.

[wco81]

Check out the slide deck here (https://www.slideshare.net/deloitteuk/football-money-league-251407418) for rough revenue breakdowns of the richest 20 clubs last year. To answer your question - the splits among the categories you name vary a lot club to club.

Thanks, that's interesting.

Looks like Broadcast is the biggest or second biggest source, well over 200 million Euros for each team.

But I see City, Liverpool and Chelsea all with over 300 million Euros for Broadcast. Man United is 288 million Euros.

These were all CL teams in 2021?

So why is City at €335 million and United at €287 million.

Do they not get equal amounts of broadcast fees for PL and CL matches? Or do they get extra TV money for each round of knockout they reach?

I would assume "Commercial" would include licensed merchandise sales as well as logos on kits and other rights. Bayern makes the most at €345 million, Real is over €321 million and City is €308 million. PSG is at €337 million but Broadcast revenue is relatively paltry at €202 million compared to the clubs in other countries. Makes sense, TV deal in France isn't as lucrative as in the UK and PSG is about the only big revenue club in Ligue 1 and then they must sell a lot of jerseys with Messi, Mbappe and Neymar.

[SgtPepper]

Commercial can include stuff like trading real estate and other non-football asset classes, revenue from trophy museums, advertisements, partnerships like shoes & music, in addition to the categories you mentioned. A brand business can make money in all the same ways Disney can, and all of them would be captured in the commercial category. Those stupid Amazon series and team season movies also fall into this.

There's a pretty big effect from COVID in suppressing matchday revenue the last 2 years. It's hard to predict how much higher that would be under non-COVID circumstances. Loss of matchday was the reason clubs sold players over COVID. But even before that, the trend was that this revenue source was declining compared to broadcast and commercial. This is one of the business details of football that is weirdest compared to other sports. It implies that football clubs earn much more money per head from global fans than their most diehard local ones, and explains why ideas like the Super League are compelling to clubs with global brands.

Broadcast includes structured revenue paid by broadcasters from the club's appearances in all the competitions, so it's loosely related the club viewership globally and the club's runs in both league and non-league competitions. The award revenue structure is very different between league and CL, and generally clubs earn a lot more money in each stage of CL KO's onwards than elsewhere. The league revenue structure also varies. So City vs Utd is mostly because CIty went much deeper into the CL (in 20/21 and 21/22) and a little because of more success in the other competitions.

[wco81]

Few years ago I checked on some match tickets and was surprised they weren't that expensive, certainly not as bad as they are for NFL and some NBA games.

Makes sense, a lot of supporters are working or middle class. There may be white-collar workers who are fans but futbol doesn't seem to have monetized premium seating the way US sports have.

I knew some people who as soon as they arrived from the US would look to go to a match, even the same afternoon.

[Mamba81p]

Check out the slide deck here (https://www.slideshare.net/deloitteuk/football-money-league-251407418) for rough revenue breakdowns of the richest 20 clubs last year. To answer your question - the splits among the categories you name vary a lot club to club.

Thanks, that's interesting.

Looks like Broadcast is the biggest or second biggest source, well over 200 million Euros for each team.

But I see City, Liverpool and Chelsea all with over 300 million Euros for Broadcast. Man United is 288 million Euros.

These were all CL teams in 2021?

So why is City at €335 million and United at €287 million.

Do they not get equal amounts of broadcast fees for PL and CL matches? Or do they get extra TV money for each round of knockout they reach?

I would assume "Commercial" would include licensed merchandise sales as well as logos on kits and other rights. Bayern makes the most at €345 million, Real is over €321 million and City is €308 million. PSG is at €337 million but Broadcast revenue is relatively paltry at €202 million compared to the clubs in other countries. Makes sense, TV deal in France isn't as lucrative as in the UK and PSG is about the only big revenue club in Ligue 1 and then they must sell a lot of jerseys with Messi, Mbappe and Neymar.

That data is from 2021, which is why you don't see too much match day revenue.
The tv rights in France were a disaster as the previous winner couldn't pay, so Amazon was able to get the rights for only 330m $, while the previous deal was almost 1bn $. It's hard to know what the true value of those rights is, since Bein and Qatar bribed France/Platini by paying a lot more money for the rights.

TV rights in Europe in general are peaking. Premier League gets about the same amount of money now as they did 6 years ago. The increased revenue comes from overseas, US primarily.

[wco81]

That makes sense.

The City-Leeds match today was at 12 PM Pacific. That would have been 8 PM in the UK, in the dead of winter too.

Have they had matches starting that late or is it a recent thing, suggesting that they're scheduling to draw an American audience?

[Mamba81p]

That makes sense.

The City-Leeds match today was at 12 PM Pacific. That would have been 8 PM in the UK, in the dead of winter too.

Have they had matches starting that late or is it a recent thing, suggesting that they're scheduling to draw an American audience?

It is a workday over there. They always schedule games at 8pm local time for weekdays.

[wco81]

On weekends there are some at like 4 AM in the morning here and then at 7 AM and then 9:30 AM is about the latest, so early evening over there.

[HIF]

sees lots of activity on transfer thread, checks it out, nothing.