2015-16 German Bundesliga Discussion Thread II

[Det the Threat]

How is Bayern winning Serie A that easily? They just played against Juve a couple of days ago and barely went through. Juve beat them 2-1 and Bayern beat them 2-1. In the league competition, both team gets 3 points from each other.

Because Bayern is currently better than Juventus(who had a great season in Europe last year) and the clear favourite in that matchup.
And the rest of Serie A will be put aside by Juve for the fith year in a row, even though the old lady had a pretty bad start to the season.

You might also want to keep in mind that Bayern didn't have a center back for the matchup(Benatia's crap and they played Alaba/Kimmich there) and should've clearly won the first leg.

BTW: I'm pretty sure you've got a complex about german football/germans etc. but it's getting really boring.
Bayern decided to go full force with their financial abilities about four years ago and since then they're a consistent champions league semifinlist, having won it in 2013.
And since then, no Serie A or EPL team would've been a favourite going into a matchup with them.

And, just for the record.
I like Juventus, but they couldn't even beat us in the champions league and got lucky during the game at Borussia Park, even though we had loads of injuries and were playing 19 year olds left and right.

On top of that, there's also the fact that the "horrible" Bundesliga's been #2 in UEFA Coefficient rankings for quite some time while England's currently trying to hold on to that 3rd spot ahead of Italy.
And then there's the fact that Germany has had more CL quaterfinalists during the last five years than Italy and England combined.
https://twitter.com/SkySportsStatto/status/710229630150680578?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

[Foye]

I was laughing at the fact it took you forever to admit who you are rooting for. First you hided being a Hamburg fan for weeks and now this.

[DD12]

Because Bayern is currently better than Juventus(who had a great season in Europe last year) and the clear favourite in that matchup.
And the rest of Serie A will be put aside by Juve for the fith year in a row, even though the old lady had a pretty bad start to the season.

You might also want to keep in mind that Bayern didn't have a center back for the matchup(Benatia's crap and they played Alaba/Kimmich there) and should've clearly won the first leg.

BTW: I'm pretty sure you've got a complex about german football/germans etc. but it's getting really boring.
Bayern decided to go full force with their financial abilities about four years ago and since then they're a consistent champions league semifinlist, having won it in 2013.
And since then, no Serie A or EPL team would've been a favourite going into a matchup with them.

And, just for the record.
I like Juventus, but they couldn't even beat us in the champions league and got lucky during the game at Borussia Park, even though we had loads of injuries and were playing 19 year olds left and right.

On top of that, there's also the fact that the "horrible" Bundesliga's been #2 in UEFA Coefficient rankings for quite some time while England's currently trying to hold on to that 3rd spot ahead of Italy.
And then there's the fact that Germany has had more CL quaterfinalists during the last five years than Italy and England combined.
https://twitter.com/SkySportsStatto/status/710229630150680578?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

I understand. You only answer the easy questions and go blank on hard ones. Ok, I will not ask you hard questions any more.

They weren't clear favorite in the matchup. Their odds were 1.70 on Betfair to go through. So they were slightly favorite but not a clear cut. Clear cut is what bookies give for Bayern Munich to win the league which is 1.03.

As far as I am concerned, Chelsea beat Bayern Munich to win the CL in 2012. So I don't care who is favorite who is not. They beat Bayern and won the CL.

So what they couldn't beat you? Bayern Munich lost to Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Porto. What does it say? Nothing. Last year, they brutally destroyed Borussia Dortmund. It was embarrassing to watch.

Good. Five years don't make cover all the lapses throughout the history for Germans. You have to do it for about 20-30 years consistently and win some trophies. As far as I am concerned, Italians almost doubled the trophies that German clubs have won so far. 12-7 cl, 7-4 UEFA.

[Foye]

yeah i have really no idea why massimo keeps bringing this crap up.
especially since his beloved serie a and süper lig have a combined zero teams left in CL and EL

[DD12]

I am not bringing up anything. Someone mentioned something about buli better than epl. I said no it is not.
I am giving you guys facts. No one in europe says Buli is the second best league in the world. I see this crap only here. I have friends everywhere, in some european major countries there is no channel to watch buli matches because there is no demand unlike EPL, Serie A and Spanish League. You can claim whatever you want all day, the truth is only one and it is Bundesliga is the fourth league after Spanish, English and Italian leagues.

[Foye]

What does demand say about the quality of a league, though? Nothing.

[cgf]

Who cares what common fans think when we're comparing the actual quality of the leagues? If we were talking about how they're perceived, how effective their marketting is, or how that exposure + marketting will drive the EPL's financial advantage over the BuLi; then sure, bring up the common perceptions. But that's not what's being discussed. No one's arguing that the BuLi is on the same financial footing as the EPL, because it's not; and there's no argument to be made for it. People will continue to get sucked in by the EPL's hype machine until the end of days, but doesn't mean that their clubs & league aren't weak right now. Just like many people's memories of Milan, Inter, & Juve dominating Europe doesn't change the fact that, currently, Serie A is stuck behind the EPL for a 4th CL spot.

People's impressions of the Bundesliga don't change the fact that one of the two best teams on the planet play in the BuLi, or that the club chasing them for the Saladbowl is in the same tier as Real/Athleti/PSG/Juve, right behind Barca & Bayern. Or that the only german clubs who've went out of europe to teams they "should have" beaten are the minnows who had their rosters pilfered following their breakthrough campaigns that qualified them for europe...with the likes of VFL, S04, BMG & even Bayer, only bowing out to clubs they are supposed to lose to. We don't see any german clubs pulling big upsets to advance past teams that should've beaten them...although some will argue for VFL advancing over United as such a case, even if I disagree...and too many of our clubs are content to go out once they're out-gunned; but that's still a step up from any league but La Liga.

At this point in history, not a decade ago, but at this point the Bundesliga is just a stronger league than the EPL. Certainly in the top half of the league, as the english relegation contenders are arguably stronger than their BuLi counterparts...for the most part...though TSG could well fight their way to safety in the EPL, just like they will in the BuLi, now that Nagelsmann has them playing better; and Stuttgart would be marching to safety on their recent form in either league. That said Hannover/Frankfurt/Darmstadt/Augsburg would all be favorites to fall below Newcastle & co. so I'd give the english sides the advantage in the bottom half of the table.

But up top both Bayern & BVB are stronger than any english side, while BMG/S04/VFL/Leverkusen are on par with their english competitors. The english "overachievers" (Leicester City & West Ham) are stronger than their german counterparts (Hertha & Mainz), though by not as much as the biggest clubs trail FCB & BVB; and this is an extension of the english money giving their lower teams an advantage over their german equivalents.

[Det the Threat]

They weren't clear favorite in the matchup. Their odds were 1.70 on Betfair to go through. So they were slightly favorite but not a clear cut. Clear cut is what bookies give for Bayern Munich to win the league which is 1.03.

Those betting numbers don't mean crap.
Ask anyone if they think those teams were the favourites against Bayern and I doubt anyone would say so.

As far as I am concerned, Chelsea beat Bayern Munich to win the CL in 2012. So I don't care who is favorite who is not. They beat Bayern and won the CL.

Actually, if you've watched that match you know that Bayern was the clear favourite and the better team while Chelsea was just on a run during the knockout stages and it was somehow their year.
Probably because of some redemption for their lost final against United and that semifinal against Barca, were the ref did them.

But hey, so let's just try to put away facts and bring up some stuff because it doesn't fit your argument.
We've been there, we've done that and it's always the same.

Just for the record, your argument here would be the same thing like me saying we played Juventus really well, didn't lose and because of that this favourite thing doesn't matter...

So what they couldn't beat you? Bayern Munich lost to Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Porto. What does it say? Nothing. Last year, they brutally destroyed Borussia Dortmund. It was embarrassing to watch.

Yeah right, nice try.

Good. Five years don't make cover all the lapses throughout the history for Germans. You have to do it for about 20-30 years consistently and win some trophies. As far as I am concerned, Italians almost doubled the trophies that German clubs have won so far. 12-7 cl, 7-4 UEFA.

Just one thing.
I was once told by a poster on these forums that the past doesn't matter much and shouldn't really be considered in those conversations...

Anyways. Again, who would've been the favourite going in a matchup with Bayern Munich?

And believing that Bayern wouldn't do the same thing in Serie A(especially in it's current shape) they're currently doing in the Bundesliga is a very exclusive opinion of your own.

[No_20]

I wouldnt say Schalke were supposed to lose to Donezk. Especially not 0-3 at home.

[cgf]

I wouldnt say Schalke were supposed to lose to Donezk. Especially not 0-3 at home.

Fair enough. A better way to say it would've been that BuLi clubs are too often content to lose to "teams it's acceptable to lose to"; as I'd agree that S04-Shakhtar was pretty much a toss up. Especially after the way Schalke played in that opening match...in which only dreadful finishing kept S04 from winning by multiple goals.

That said, before the tie Donetzk was seen as one of the most dangerous & talented teams in the EL, who were amongst the favorites to win it all. So Schalke weren't "expected to win" and "there was no shame in going out to them"; which was the thrust of my complaint.

Too many of our clubs, other than FCB or BVB, have the same problems due to their lack of ambition as arsenal; they're too satisfied by achieving a respectable result for a club with their talent level, but without really challenging the true giants...at least since that Raul & Neuer lead run by Schalke all those years ago.

[DD12]

Anyways. Again, who would've been the favourite going in a matchup with Bayern Munich?

No it means a lot because numbers don't lie. And we all know bookies are really really really good at predicting stuff based on their odds. Most reliable source for probabilities. 1.70 is not a certain odd for anyone to go through. But 1.03 is.

I usually don't read the sentences that start with Actually, But, However stuff. The rest is just poor man's excuses over excuses. So I did not read that.

Barcelona.

The ones may not be favorite but equally favorite would be Real Madrid and PSG. Bayern's odds to go through against these teams won't be lower than 1.80 or so which means tie is open to anything.

[cgf]

So would you also agree that the Dallas Cowboys & Pittsburgh Steelers are playoff caliber teams with a genuine shots at the superbowl every single season? Cause the bookies give them fair odds for it just about every damn year, regardless of the talent on the team. Otherwise you'd be forced to acknowledge that the inflated odds for the Cowboys & Steelers' success is a result of their massive fanbases, who will put some money on their team out of sheer fandom; and that some casuals will bet on them purely on name-recognition. Which would undermine you're appeal to the authority of bookies some, wouldn't it?

Especially when we're discussing a match up between Bayern & an even more globally-reknowned club, from a historically stronger league that's no longer at it's previous heights. Juventus' larger international fanbase, name recognition, recent run to the final, and Bayern's injury crisis at CB...as well as the general misconceptions about the Bundesliga's quality amongst many casual fans...couldn't possibly have contributed to the bookies giving out such even odds, could it have?

Nevermind that head to head odds with Bayern mid injury crisis doesn't tell us that much about what the odds would be on them triumphing over Juve in a league context. Where the ability to dominate the rest of the league would take precedence & were Bayern would loom even larger.

[No_20]

I wouldnt say Schalke were supposed to lose to Donezk. Especially not 0-3 at home.

Fair enough. A better way to say it would've been that BuLi clubs are too often content to lose to "teams it's acceptable to lose to"; as I'd agree that S04-Shakhtar was pretty much a toss up. Especially after the way Schalke played in that opening match...in which only dreadful finishing kept S04 from winning by multiple goals.

That said, before the tie Donetzk was seen as one of the most dangerous & talented teams in the EL, who were amongst the favorites to win it all. So Schalke weren't "expected to win" and "there was no shame in going out to them"; which was the thrust of my complaint.

Too many of our clubs, other than FCB or BVB, have the same problems due to their lack of ambition as arsenal; they're too satisfied by achieving a respectable result for a club with their talent level, but without really challenging the true giants...at least since that Raul & Neuer lead run by Schalke all those years ago.

That wasnt the case in the 00's. You had Schaaf's Bremen who went toe-to-toe with the giants of Europe(Madrid, Barca, Juve, Inter, Milan) and reached the UEFA Cup Final in 2009. If they had a better GK than Tim Wiese they could've had won a trophy that period. Leverkusen obviously had a terrific run in 2002. Schalke with Lincoln, Asamoah, Hamit and those guys almost knocked out Ancelotti's great Milan side(that game where Gattuso celebrated in front of Poulsen's face after FT.) HSV made b2b UEFA Cup semis etc. etc.

You dont see any German teams(not named Bayern or Dortmund) challenging the elite these years. It's disgraceful to see Leverkusen lose 1-7 to Barcelona and 0-5 to PSG. Or Schalke 1-6 at home against Madrid. Wolfsburg will probably get hammered as well in the next round. You mentioned that Schalke team with Neuer and Raul. But that tie against Man United was the most one-sided SF I've ever seen. They lost 1-6 on aggregate but without Neuer it would've been 1-15.

[DD12]

So would you also agree that the Dallas Cowboys & Pittsburgh Steelers are playoff caliber teams with a genuine shots at the superbowl every single season? Cause the bookies give them fair odds for it just about every damn year, regardless of the talent on the team. Otherwise you'd be forced to acknowledge that the inflated odds for the Cowboys & Steelers' success is a result of their massive fanbases, who will put some money on their team out of sheer fandom; and that some casuals will bet on them purely on name-recognition. Which would undermine you're appeal to the authority of bookies some, wouldn't it?

Especially when we're discussing a match up between Bayern & an even more globally-reknowned club, from a historically stronger league that's no longer at it's previous heights. Juventus' larger international fanbase, name recognition, recent run to the final, and Bayern's injury crisis at CB...as well as the general misconceptions about the Bundesliga's quality amongst many casual fans...couldn't possibly have contributed to the bookies giving out such even odds, could it have?

Nevermind that head to head odds with Bayern mid injury crisis doesn't tell us that much about what the odds would be on them triumphing over Juve in a league context. Where the ability to dominate the rest of the league would take precedence & were Bayern would loom even larger.

I started following nfl very recently and very rarely looked at the odds. For next year, remind me we can take a look at it.

Odds are not everything but it will be most closest and unbiased opinion for the probabilities. So, there is a lot of difference between Bayern winning the league 1.03 while 5 pts ahead and Leicester 1.70 while 5 pts ahead. It shows that clearly Bayern Munich is heavily favored.

It sure could. However, bookies usually don't take into consideration regarding name recognition and fanbase etc. Also missing players wouldn't affect the odds so much. Maybe 0.02-3 or so. But certainly odds were too high because Bayern Munich is not as good as most of Germans think they are and also most people except you guys believe that there is a huge monopoly in the league which causes Bayern to get lazy often times.. So answer for your question is yes and no.

No. Missing players wouldn't make such difference from let's say 1.20 to 1.70. It just doesn't. If Bayern were at their best squad, odds may not be 1.70, it is true but wouldn't be less than 1.65.

[No_20]

Been told that Xhaka to Arsenal in the summer is done.

[Foye]

Det will probably personally drive him to London in a wheelbarrow for anything above 45 mil. €

[No_20]

Det will probably personally drive him to London in a wheelbarrow for anything above 45 mil. €

Schweinsteiger, De Bruyne, Firmino last year. Gundogan, Xhaka, Götze, Hector, Sane now. All the big stars in Bundesliga are moving to the PL.

[magik9113]

Especially when we're discussing a match up between Bayern & an even more globally-reknowned club, from a historically stronger league that's no longer at it's previous heights. Juventus' larger international fanbase, name recognition, recent run to the final, and Bayern's injury crisis at CB...as well as the general misconceptions about the Bundesliga's quality amongst many casual fans...couldn't possibly have contributed to the bookies giving out such even odds, could it have?

Nevermind that head to head odds with Bayern mid injury crisis doesn't tell us that much about what the odds would be on them triumphing over Juve in a league context. Where the ability to dominate the rest of the league would take precedence & were Bayern would loom even larger.

Idk what everyone's talking about...too much to read first thing in the morning, but Juve had just as many injury problems between the two legs if not more

[Foye]

Det will probably personally drive him to London in a wheelbarrow for anything above 45 mil. €

Schweinsteiger, De Bruyne, Firmino last year. Gundogan, Xhaka, Götze, Hector, Sane now. All the big stars in Bundesliga are moving to the PL.

I can not believe you just listed Hector as a big star.

Even Sane...the dude is more a project than a star.
Yeah, his absolute ceiling is a world class player. But he could also turn out to be the next Schürrle or Draxler and stagnate in his development. If you can sell him for 50 mil. € these days it's hell of a smart business decision and will help your club grow.

[cgf]

Especially when we're discussing a match up between Bayern & an even more globally-reknowned club, from a historically stronger league that's no longer at it's previous heights. Juventus' larger international fanbase, name recognition, recent run to the final, and Bayern's injury crisis at CB...as well as the general misconceptions about the Bundesliga's quality amongst many casual fans...couldn't possibly have contributed to the bookies giving out such even odds, could it have?

Nevermind that head to head odds with Bayern mid injury crisis doesn't tell us that much about what the odds would be on them triumphing over Juve in a league context. Where the ability to dominate the rest of the league would take precedence & were Bayern would loom even larger.

Idk what everyone's talking about...too much to read first thing in the morning, but Juve had just as many injury problems between the two legs if not more

I know you guys were devastated for the second leg. But who was missing before the tie other than Marchisio? Bayern was down to Alaba n Kimmich at CB when the draw happened n initial odds were set.