Nice soccer picks and analysis

[Sorvino]

DOMZALE – ZAVRC (Slovenian league)
Zavrc is a solid team and now they’ve gained more quality by signing Kresinger, a striker who is even too good for Slovenian league. They’ve recently managed to give a hard time to Maribor who is no1 in this league and they won against Celje and Triglav. Domzale on the other hand didn’t perform quite good this season, moreover, in the last round they suffered a heavy defeat (3:0) from Krka which is a new team in this league and now again they have lots of problems with injuries (Skubic, S. Vuk, Ljubovic, Majer, Jelar, Rems, Mulalic – all out for this match). Also they are playing at home but that’s not a real advantage for them. They’ve won only 5 out of last 26 home games. I think Zavrc can give them a real hard time in this match and go home with at least one point.

Bet: X2
Odds: 2.10

[Sorvino]

Last one was a winner, hope austrians can keep us on tracks

MATTERSBURG – PARNDORF (Austria 2nd division)
Before this championship started bookies predicted Mattersburg and Parndorg on two different ends on table, as first promotion candidate and first relegation candidate. After six rounds status of Mattersburg as favourite is seriously disturbed, while last year’s third league club Parndorf remained at the bottom regarding chances to stay in this league.
On that weaknes of Parndorf we’ll build todays attempt of Mattersburg to as their coach Tatar said “finaly play a stable match and seal the question of winner on time”. In other words they will go for all three points with couple of goals margin and not be satisfied with 1:0 or 2:1 and fear the equalizer in the last minutes.
Mattersburg is by far better team than Parndorf on all positions and if or better to say when they score visitors will have to open up and in an open match players of Parndorf, half of them semi-amateurs wont be able to compete with Mattersburg.
Parndorf’s defense is worst in league – their goalkeeper has most interventions so far in this league which means that poor defending leaves a whole lot of space for opposition to shoot and to score as well (they have an average of two conceded goals per match).
Home team is one of the best in the league and its about time they start showing it on the pitch.
Bet: handicap -1,5
Tip: 1
Odds: 2.30
Best of luck

[Sorvino]

Last two were winners..hope Tottenham can do their job today

TOTTENHAM – DINAMO TBLISI
Dinamo Tblisi will have a real hard time scoring in this match and that’s what im gonna base my bet on. First of all they haven’t managed to score on their home turf in front of their audience where they usually have more chances to score than away. Second of all, Tottenham has already shown that they wont underestimate them and I expect a dose of seriousness in this rematch.
In all last three matches Spurs had a clean sheet and their opponents were all much stronger teams than Dinamo. Even if AVB uses some rotations in lineup today (which I doubt) they will primarily be in the offensive part. On all that we must add that Dinamo will surely miss Xisco, their best and most experienced striker.
My perspective of this match is that Dinamo will “park their bus” in their own half and try to save themselves from some kind of debacle against Soldado and company. I’m sure that English team will score so this bet definitely has a value.
Bet: home team wins without receiving a goal
Odds: 1.95

[Sorvino]

NAUTICO – SAO PAOLO
Just by looking at the table one can see in how difficult situation Nautico is. With or without second division syndrome, they are justifying their status of relegation candidate from the beginning of the season. They’ve lost 11 out of last 15 games and they also have worst efficiency in the league with only 9 goals scored so far. Constant coach shifts are also not helping them gain stability – in last four months they’ve changed four coaches.
Moreover, they’ve recently moved onto the new stadium so they don’t even have the feeling of playing on home turf. They’ve also been eliminated from Sul-Americani Cup against biggest rival, now playing in second division Sport Recife. In this match they wont be able to count on their key defender Joao Filipe so I expect their defense to be even more unstable.
In last four league games they played against Cricuma, Bahia, Fluminense and Atletico PR and lost all four of them – on the other hand Sao Paolo played with Fluminense and Atletico and took 4 points in those two matches. They’ve also played very good against Flamengo where they missed last minute penalty worth all three points and took a point against top team of Botafogo. All that suggests that they are close to getting out of crisis because they are showing it not only with results but also with their play on the field.
Difference in squad quality is also notable cause Sao Paolo has a couple of times more expensive team than hosts and they will also be stronger today because their top striker Luis Fabiano is back from suspension.
Advantage for visitors is also the fact that Nautico played four games in last two weeks and Sao Paolo only two and I expect more freshness in away team.
BET: 2
Odds: 2.10
Good luck

[Sorvino]

Corinthias – Nautico Recife
Corinthias is one of the very best teams in the league with very wide and quality bench while Nautico is by far the worst team in the league.
Nautico has obvious problems with quality, especially in the offensive part which is proven by fact that they’ve only scored one goal in the last seven games (nine in whole season). They already had a tight schedule they couldn’t cope with and now they also had some postponed matches to play and all that is a real nightmare for them. This will be their third match in only six days and in last two they lost on home turf without even scoring a goal. These days they’ve also made their FIFTH switch on coaching position in the last five months and it is most obvious that the problem is not in staff but in lack of quality in player roster.
Corinthias has some problems with injuries for this match and will miss kinds of Pato and Emerson but there are still Romarinho and Danilo and I have absolutely no doubt that they will find the way to Nautico’s net.
Hosts have excellent defense which is allowing only 0.44 goals per match and I don’t see how Nautico who scored only once in last seven away games could be a threat here, moreover because Corinthias received only one goal on home turf since end of May (including all competitions!!!!). I expect that trend to continue.
Bet: Away team NOT to score
Odds: 1.80
Equivalent is also home team to win without receiving a goal which can be found at around 2.00 but I prefer first option which is safer.
Cheers

[Sorvino]

CYPRUS – SLOVENIA (WCQ Europe)
Slovenia and Cyprus played seven times so far and not once did Cyprus manage to win. There is absolutely no reason why that trend should be broken today. Their motivation is not on the highest level as they don’t have even theoretical chance to go to Brasil and they have a lot of problems with absences. Striker Cristofi, defender Christoua and winger Efrem are all out including one of their most dangerous offensive player from APOEL, Aloneftis who has a suspension. As for their play it is enough to say that they haven’t scored in more than 340 minutes.
Slovenia on the other hand will be boosted by the return of their captain Cesar and they still have a chance to advance at least to play-offs if they win all the remaining three matches. They’ve had a bit of luck beating Albania recently but their stable and organized, moreover disciplined play will be enough to get them all three points here against last-placed Cyprus.
Bet: 2
Odds: 2.10

[Sorvino]

Another winner with Slovenia

ATLETICO MG - CORITIBA

Atletico is on the edge of falling into danger zone and therefore they have an imperative to win today and key factors should be the home turf and absent players in the visiting team. In home team strikers Donizeti and Guilherme are fit after injuries and should provide enough firepower upfront today when Tardelli is expected to get some rest.
On the other hand there is probably no team in Brazil with one player standing apart and above his teammates like Coritiba with Alex. He did not even travel for this away match, even though he is not injured according to Betprepare betting site. Other than Alex, several more players will be missing today in all lines, including defensive midfielder Junior Urso and the important defensive pair Leandro Almeida and Victor Ferraz. Because of this, the Coritiba defense will feature three players with only eight matches played in total between them.
Odds on home win are already down so I’ll go with home team to score some goals. Atletico has scored at least two goals in six out of last seven home games and I expect the same today.

Bet: Home team over 1,5 goals
Odds: 1.85
Cheers

[Sorvino]

Atletico took only 26 mins to score double Lets try and keep this nice winning streak with Munich today

AALEN – MUNICH 1860
Aalen seemed like a solid team beating Kaiserslautern recently but I don’t understand that they can be such major favourites against undoubtedly better Munich who is main candidate for promotion to Bundesliga. Quality difference between these two is major.
Even though this might be a difficult match I think odds on Draw no Bet are exceptionally good. Munich appointed new coach Funkel who by the way lead 5 different clubs to promotions so far and it’s expected for players to be motivated in order to prove their spot in first lineup with new coach.
Bet: DNB away win
Odds: 2.00
Cheers

[Sorvino]

No win but no loss yesterday since dnb returns money for draw

LEVANTE - REAL SOCIEDAD

To me, Levante showed nothing special this season. I watched them in their last league match against Rayo and realistically they should have suffered a decisive defeat. Their goalkeeper Navar had a great game and Rayo's strikers kept on missing their chances and only in injury time they managed to score a winning goal with a man advantage. Even with a man advantage they were mostly concerned about defending their own goal and would occasionally threaten from counter-attacks.

On the other hand, Real suffered a defeat in their home match last week against strong Atletico, but managed to play well and players have nothing to blame themselves for that loss. I am aware that Real plays Champions League match this week, which is important to them, but as Arrasate said - no one will be spared today. It would be bad for them to fall behind at the start of the season and I believe they will play for the win today. If we compare the quality of these two teams and their current form, everything is in the favor of the visiting team.

For safety reasons I will pick Asian handicap on Real +0 which will return my stake in the case of a draw
Odds: 1.70

[Sorvino]

Time to get back on winning tracks
RIED - SALZBURG
I found this nice info on Betprepare site and I think its worth a shot.
Ried will be missing their most creative player Zulj, Ziegel is also injured, defender Janeczek and forward Kreuzer as well as long-term injured Rieter are all out of action for today so the home team will be in a lot of troubles because their previous good results rested on these key players.
Ried and their results in the first seven rounds are to be applauded, but it is time for their winning series to end, as the best team of the league, Salzburg, are coming to town. Salzburg's claim to being best will require proving, of course, but the team coached by German Roger Schmidt will have plenty of motivation to do so.
Fumbles again Ried cost Salzburg their title last year, as they have not managed to beat their tough opponent in four games, squandering as much as nine points through one loss and three ties. Smart men and good sports teams learn from their mistakes though, so the lesson was surely not lost on Salzburg, and they will want payback for all the frustrations from last season.
The guests are arriving to Ried in full, with their strongest lineup at the moment, and a string of players that Ried cannot hope to match. Soriano, Mane, Alan and Kampl are a quartet of offensive aces the home team will find difficult to neutralize.
Bet: 2
Odds: 1.75
Cheers

[Sorvino]

Ried Salzburg 0:5

We're on fire again..stay tuned for more info

[Sorvino]

BENFICA - ANDERLECHT PREVIEW

Following a problematic preseason due to a series of poor defensive performances, Benfica have entered the new championship in a similar way, but they are starting to show glimpses of the playing style that brought them wins over respectable European teams in recent seasons, especially in home games. Over the last season alone, Celtic and Spartak fall at Benfica's statium in the CL, and Leverkusen, Bordeaux and Fenerbahce followed in the EL during springtime. All these teams are stronger than Anderlecht, who should be the right opponent for them to continue raising their form after improved performances against Sporting (in the second half) and Pacos, reminiscent of their recent seasons' dynamic and attacking play that brought them some good European achievements ever since Jorge Jesus took charge. Anderlecht are Group C underdogs with a rather young team that lacks experience at the European level, and playing away is not their strong suit. This summer, most of the important players have left the club, so it's small wonder they are already trailing six points behind Standard. They've displayed a respectable goalscoring ability in the championship, as well as some defensive errors. None of Anderlecht center backs are over 23 years of age. They lack the necessary European experience and I believe that they will not be able to stop the home side's forward line led by Cardozo and Lima, who jointly scored 63 goals last season. In a match where the home team is at least a class above the visitors, with both teams better on the attack and relatively weak in defense.

Bet: Over 2,5
Odds: 1.80
Cheers

[Sorvino]

Thats what i call a bad luck..two goals in first 30 mins and it still wont go in over..but thats betting, thats life, both goes on..here's another nice pick

SLOVAN BRATISLAVA – NITRA (Slovakian league)
Found this preview on Betprepare and seems like a reasonable bet..think it's worth a shot

Nitra was a good customer to the Slovan's players in the last season as well, and they aparently had a better team then. This current team is, not to use an uglier word, horrible. The dilemma regarding this game was this: home team's win with more than 2.5 goals in the game (bwin@1.75) or more than 2.5 home team's goals. I decided for the second option, because even the first one would hardly pass without Slovan scoring three goals, since Nitra's offense is pretty bad. And Unibet is paying really well for this second option. Yes, you could always say why would they chase the third goal if they're 2-0 in the lead? They didn't have to do that last season either, but they won at home with 4-0 and 5-1, and 3-0 in an away game. Slovan is the most potent offensive team in the league, and after two games in front of empty stands, they will be playing in front of supporters again, and that is definitely an extra motive. They've already gone over this margin twice this season, they stayed under three times, but they missed everything against DAC, and the game against Senice was a derby. And they were up 2-0 against ViOn in front of empty stands. But, more important thing for me right now is what Nitra's defense looks like - in four out of five away games they conceded four goals (Trencin, Kosice, Zilina and Dukla BB). They were under that only against equally bad DAC, they conceded only one goal and lost.

Bet: Home team total goals over 2,5
Odds: 2.10

[Sorvino]

Anyone following me on these picks or should I stop writing them?

RECORD SO FAR:
12 PICKS = 9 WINNERS, 2 PUSHES and ONLY 1 LOSS

[Sorvino]

Back after a qucik vacation How you all doing lately?

MLS Houston Dynamo - Kansas City

Kansas won against Columbus with referee help and luck, but they did not look as good as in their previous few matches. Their front line is obviously shaken after they sold Kamara and coach Vermes is rotating a lot and trying different trios, but he still has not found a solution. Their defense and midfield are without best players Zusi and Besler (players that take all set pieces) so I do not see a phase of this match in which they could be better than their hosts who started playing better, are rested and have more players at their disposal.
Home team win is a good option, as is that Kansas will not score a goal. But since the visiting team will not take any risk until they find themselves chasing the score, I recommend higher stake on a match without a draw. I think that the visiting team win, if there is no red cards and if some crazy situations do not develop during the match, is highly unlikely.

Bet: Draw no bet
Tip: 1
Odds: 1.70

[J-Mezzy]

You should keep posting them. I don't gamble, but I don't mind reading the analisys and seeing the odds.

[Sorvino]

Last one was a push..Houston was perhaps better on the field but stayed 0-0 on the scoreboard...no money lost but now it's time to earn some Here's one Betprepare pick for you

U21 DENMARK – U21 SLOVENIA

Denmark and Slovenia showed that they want to play attractive football in their previous matches and I expect a similar approach by both teams today. Also, both teams played against a very solid Estonia under the margin, while the other two games they played went over the margin of goals scored. The home team can't count on their captain Vestergaard, which is a serious blow for their backline and I believe that the Slovenians can cause a lot of problems today. On the other hand the Danes will be boosted by the return of the excellent striker Falk, who already played for the senior national team and will make their attack even stronger.
I believe that the right bet would be over on goals scored because a tie is not an option for both teams, who have been scoring a lot of goals lately and playing good attacking football.

Bet: Over 2,5 Goals
Odds: 1.80
Good luck if you are following

[Sorvino]

Yesterday was nice for us..U21's scored four goals total taking us over the margin of 2,5 goals Hope Murcia can make us some money too with help of betprepare info

MURCIA – GIRONA

In an interesting match played in Jaen, not even two penalty kicks were enough for Murcia to break the hosts and extend their positive run, which ended after six games without a defeat. Their last loss before that one came at the outset of the season to current leaders Recreativo. Judging by that, this new defeat shouldn't disrupt the cogs in Murcia's machine, and we'll probably see them back to their normal selves in today's match. They will certainly not lack for motivation. Girona took seven points in its last three visits to the Nueva Condomina, but Murcia wasn't as good as it currently is, and now they are looking for payback. The fact that they are at full-strength for this match will help them achieve that and win another three points. Namely, coach Velasquez now faces a challenge of picking the first eleven from a number of quality players as the last absentee, midfielder Tete, returned into contention getting in from the bench in the last game.
In the last week's derby Girona managed to win only one point. A small consolation for them, given that they won this point after two consecutive losses. Something is off on the pitch lately and coach Rodriguez is very much aware of that. Some changes are unavoidable as they are now far from the top of the table where they are planning to be in the end. Midfielder Timor, one of their best players, is still out, as well as defender Lopez.

Bet: 1 (Home win)
Odds: 2.30 (Pinnacle)
GL mates

[Sorvino]

SWEDEN - GERMANY
PREVIEW
Sweden, with their 20 point haul, can play hosts for this final qualifying game without any pressure whatsoever. Last week's win over Austria, or turnaround to be more correct, cemented their second place finish in the group. Today's opponents Germany are five points in front, and as Sweden can't overtake them, they have nothing to play for but prestige.

Besides that, the hosts will be missing one important player, or it might be better to say crucial foward. Zlatan Ibrahimovic, their biggest star, is suspended for the match. First choice keeper Isaksson and defender Lustig have missed the last training session due to injury, and they probably won't play today.
We have some doubts regarding the starting 11, and I still haven't made a final decision. We will miss Zlatan, he's a world class player. We can play the same as we have we played so far, but without him it will be a lot harder - coach Erik Hamren said, before commenting on the match against the heavily favoured German side:

- We went into the matches against Germany in Berlin and Austria on Friday a bit too cautiously. However, I would be naive if I thought that we will see more of the ball than Germany today.

Germany secured top spot in the group with a convincing win against Ireland. They have won every match but one, the amazing draw against Sweden, when they were 4-0 up, only for the game to finish 4-4. Low had this to say about today's game:

- We don't want to experiment too much in our final qualifying match. The team are on a good run and we want to keep it going. We don't want to get even for the Berlin game, that's water under the bridge for us. The players have learned from that experience, and that's the most important thing.

They will still be missing almost all of their Dortmund contigent, and forwards Klose and Gomez as well, but Schweinsteiger is ready to make his 100th national team appearance.

Low is about to sign a new contract, which would run until 2016, so it seems that the German FA are going to place their trust in him for another qualifying cycle.

BETTING PREVIEW

Basing on this Betprepare preview everything is clear..Sweden will be without Ibrahimovic and Lustig and that will be a huge handicap for them since it’s their best striker and standard, most experienced defender who are missing this match. On the other hand Germany wants revenge for that 4-4 result back in Germany and Low already mentioned that he has no intention of experimenting so I expect away team to be at their best.

Bet: 2
Odds: 1.75

[Sorvino]

Been away on a little trip but got back right in time for Champions League Here's one Betprepare pick..seems like a very good option to me. What's your opinion? Cheers!

PORTO - ZENIT
Porto are almost always the favorites at their own stadium, but rating them at such ridiculous odds is going too far in my opinion. Zenit are playing some amazing football, they are stronger than ever, literally steamrolling over their competition in Russia, and only bad luck and referees' mistakes prevented them from getting more points in the Champions League. Even though Spalletti says this isn't necessarily a critical game, we need to be realistic and say that this is a do or die match for them. Not many would put pressure on an in-form team ahead of an important match, and Spalletti's statements are logical attempts to reduce it, as he believes his team can achieve their goal if they keep playing at their best. The only mitigating circumstance for them could be if Atletico secure their progress already after four games (which is very likely, as they have two games against Austria) and go into the fifth at Petrovsky with some reservations. But Zenit can in no way rely on that, especially as this would give Porto the same advantage in their sixth game away at Calderon. Therefore, Zenit must not lose today. Reasons to believe in Zenit's positive outcome are aplenty, and the potential key figure for many in this match is Hulk, who is in top form and he could easily wreak havoc in Porto's defense, which he knows very well. Even though I'm deeply convinced that Zenit will leave Portugal undefeated, due to excellent odds and Witsel's absence I will go for a more conservative option in the form of a +1 handicap, which would see our stake return if Porto win by one goal. I expected these odds on x2.

Bet: Handicap -1
Tip: 2
Odds: 1.88

BOL