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2022-23 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - The KD era begins

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What do you think our chances are of winning the West and the Championship if we win the West?

20-30% we win west, 70-80% someone else in field does
6
10%
30-40% we win west, 60-70% someone else in field does
12
19%
40-50% we win west, 50-60% someone else in field does
7
11%
Greater than 50% we win west, less than 50% someone else in field does
5
8%
IF we win west, 50/50 chance we win vs east team
17
27%
IF we win west, greater than 50% chance we win vs east team
8
13%
IF we win west, less than 50% chance we win vs east team
7
11%
 
Total votes: 62

WeekapaugGroove
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Re: 2022-23 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - The KD era begins 

Post#2661 » by WeekapaugGroove » Fri Mar 3, 2023 3:10 pm

The lesson that should have been learned from the Mavs series is to take care of business early in a series because if you let it go to a game 7 anything can happen.

There's a make/miss aspect to NBA basketball that determines a decent percentage of games. Basically you'll have nights where either the opponent makes everything or you miss everything and no other aspect of the game matters that night. Avoid putting yourself in situations where this can bite you.

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King4Day
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2022-23 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - The KD era begins 

Post#2662 » by King4Day » Fri Mar 3, 2023 5:29 pm

WeekapaugGroove wrote:The lesson that should have been learned from the Mavs series is to take care of business early in a series because if you let it go to a game 7 anything can happen.

There's a make/miss aspect to NBA basketball that determines a decent percentage of games. Basically you'll have nights where either the opponent makes everything or you miss everything and no other aspect of the game matters that night. Avoid putting yourself in situations where this can bite you.

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Something that stays on my mind when I talk to friends who say we blew the 2-0 lead against the Bucks.
Game 2, I felt we were outplayed, but the Suns shot I think 20-40 or something, from 3.
While the Suns still could have won the series as it was close in games 4-6, had the game 2 explosion not occurred, it may have ended in 5 and nobody would be thinking the Suns should have won. That series reminded me a lot of the OKC/Miami finals a decade ago.
"Sometimes, the dragon wins" #RallyTheValley
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Re: 2022-23 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - The KD era begins 

Post#2663 » by ImNotMcDiSwear » Fri Mar 3, 2023 6:17 pm

sunsbg wrote:
Saberestar wrote:
sunsbg wrote:
I posted minutes distribution in a previous post so not talking about demotion at all, but staggering the big four. Payne is certainly not as smart as CP3, but if we face the Mavs you know what is coming - Luka posting CP3 all day to get him exhausted. Suns D will probably look better with Payne, so better be prepared for such situation. Cam in the form he showed as a starter last season is a game changer.

Payne is not better than CP3 on defense.

We couldn't play Cam Payne in that series against the Mavs because Doncic and Brunson took advantage of him all the time. Payne's size is gonna be always a disadvantage.

It will be better to go big against the Mavs and play some minutes with Book at PG.


True, Cam is not better than CP3 as defender in general, but youth and energy is still on his side. The lineup with him I mentioned should be pretty good in up tempo game. It's good to be able to throw different looks at the opponent. All this applies if he regains form and actually looks good, otherwise Booker or Okogie at PG is only option if Mavs or any other team start exploiting CP3 on D.


I wish I could agree with you about being able to throw different looks at an opponent. I really like Monty as a coach but his strength is also his weakness. That is, he never diverts from his game plan, which stays the same no matter what happens in the game. He doesn't throw curveballs. It's the same pitch every time.

That's what really killed us against Dallas. Dallas adjusted and we either refused or simply couldn't. They pressured Paul 94 feet and doubled Booker immediately, because Paul can't blow by anyone and Booker can't not shoot and isn't lanky enough to escape a double team. They pressured Ayton and shoved his midsection on every shot in the paint because they knew he wouldn't get the whistle, pass it out and lose the rhythm he needs to shoot the mid-range. They pushed Bridges off the corners and gave him the wings. All to invite shots from an exhausted Paul, Bridges on the move, and Jae Crowder.

They sucked the confidence right out of us and fed off it. Brilliant coaching by Kidd.

TBH it's hard to know whether it was possible for Monty to do anything different. The whole year we'd been relying on Paul and Book. If DA could iso reliably and with confidence, or if Bridges could score regularly off the dribble, that might have made all the difference. Payne was our Plan C after Paul and Book, and he was toast before the series started. We were just extraordinarily vulnerable for a team that won 64 games.

Durant changes everything.

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