NBA SALARY EVALUATOR PROGRAM RELEASED

[Amen316]

This is posted in general discussion area but we have talked a little about it in here. So I thought I would copy/paste subject matter in here for discussions if need be.


NBA PLayer Salary Evaluator Program (Proven Starters can get 6yrs. it goes down from there. Backups sometime only get 50-75% off their on real value. Please keep that in mind as you read)


Scoutingthenba.com has released the results of a new program which evaluates players on court performances, jersey sales-marketing, age, upside, city of oppurtunity value, team win -loss, open market value, moneyball value, and away attendance figures.
Once all of this information has been equatted a players value can be determined as an impact to the team.
There are 3 basic columns of results shown. The first column is known as a player on-court performance. These numbers represent what the coaches, media, and fans sees of value. This is why most people are always mind boggled at the contracts, because rarely is someone ever signed for their on-court actions alone.
Column 2 - Is the kitchen sink it has a players full open market value based on every credential money wise we could evaluate. This is normally a realistic beginning point for an agent representing his client.
Column 3 - Is the actual value of the player by a method that minus the factor of jersey sales-marketing and minus an open market demand. Very few times does a player actually have as much value here as column 2. Many times too many teams are too strapped or there is an overdemand at the position which allows column 3 to be more realistic. Many times this column is used as 1-3 year contracts or even exception basis.

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So how have we fared the Summer of 2008:

DALLAS MAVERICKS

Desagana Diop(Dal) DAL 1.717 5.625 3.977
Desagana Diop(NJN) NJN 0.668 3.450 2.248
Basically this equatted to a value range of 5.6million to 6.2million
With such demand for proven defensive Centers Diop got 31million over 5years basically 6.2million. We couldnt have nailed this any better.
Players that split time at places are very tough to do especially if they do not play the same amount of minutes at their final place.
Jose Juan Barea DAL 0.780 2.157 0.746
Jose Juan Barea has showed he can run the team on a short term basis. His restricted value is 750k per as a backup. If some team bought into him being the starter he could garner 2.157 million per.
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- GOLDEN STATE SITUATION -

Andris Biedrins GSW 6.208 10.133 8.922
basically his value was 10.133 x 6 years = 60.78 million
Another Center that we thought would get a big contract did just that by landing a 62million over 6years. Simply because of demand.
Monta Ellis GSW 12.129 13.110 12.078
Monta Ellis is a restricted free agent so he will more than likely resign for third column amount. 12.078 x 6 years = (72.468 mil/ 6years)
Kelenna Azubuike GSW 2.91 4.830 4.368
Kelenna Azubuike will have a hard time getting full open market value due to his position, and to further complicate the matters he really isnt considered a starter. More of a sixth man. This will limit Kelennas earning potential we have Kelenna being worth 4.368 x 3years= (13.1million / 3 years) This is why players like Ben Gordon will have a hard time getting his value in a contract.
Matt Barnes GSW 2.364 4.652 3.516
Another player off the bench that will have a hard time getting his 3.5million x 3years = 10.5million. Remember when a savvy GM can sign a player less than his court value that team has made tremendous strides into improving their team.
Mickael Pietrus GSW 2.037 3.823 2.953
Another 2-3 player that isnt a starter and more than likely will not get his full player value of 2.9million per. 60-75% of that number will make a GM look terrrific.
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Carlos Arroyo ORL 2.346 4.091 2.709
Carlos earned a starting spot for Orlando so his open market value is considerably higher than normal. Carlos could recieve a contract for 20million over 5 years. Or look to tender another 1 year deal for 2.7million. (However we believe Carlos could be a steal for the number of 20/5yr)
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Randolph Morris NYK 0.343 1.704 1.522
Randolph Morris will probably sign a small contract simply because his agent should advise him that any playing time whatsoever will increase his value to the league and himself. (2years for 3.4million) He is a center so his value is slightly higher than the (3.04million/2year) he has a 1.5-1.7 annual value at the moment.
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New Orleans

Jannero Pargo NOH 2.987 5.247 3.853
Jannero has really increased his value on the open market to a contract in the neighborhood of (31.3million over 6years). Jannero may sign a one year deal prove himself even more value if he can put one more season like the last behind him.
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Kasib Powell MIA 0.762 3.891 1.616
Kasib has a (11.6million over 3year) production. With as much incoming talent as Miami has Kasib may find it hard to get the monies but 3.891 per isnt alot for a player that produced on the court. Some teams will equate Kasib value to 1.6million per year, because Miami had such a bad year. Kasib is worth the 3.89 number.
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Dj Mbenga(Gsw) GSW 0.303 1.243 1.330
Dj Mbenga(LaL) LAL 0.390 2.378 1.556
DJ will be a tricky signing due to the changing of teams however 2.88million per seems like his value but teams are leary because he didnt fit in at Golden States run and gun style. DJ will be had for a very cheap price and should produce some quality minutes in the paint for some team. DJ will probably go for 1.3 to 1.5 million on a single season signing. DJs on court value was very close to minimum at 750k.
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CHICAGO SITUATION:

Luol Deng CHI 6.80 9.368 8.462
Luol Deng in 2007 had a value of 11.25 million per now his value has dropped to 9.38 per. You can expect Chicago and Dengs agent are light years away and somoene is going to have to buckle. I believe Dengs value on the open market has dropped considerably this season. (56.2million over 6years)or restricted free agent value of (50.7million/6years) is more than likely the number that will seal the deal for Deng/Bulls.

Ben Gordon CHI 7.053 8.898 7.850

Ben Gordon is another player that fell off where Chicago felt he should be at as a player. Gordon was thought to be around a 10million per player, but as it turns out Gordons numbers fell and so to does this a players value to the Bulls. Gordon will probably be upset to see he will be offered around (46.8million over 6 years) however this is Gordons value as a restricted free agent.
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CHarlotte Bobcats

Emeka Okafor CHaR 8.824 10.772 10.269

Emeka is in a strange position where he hasnt proven that he can help a team win and he is also undersized for his position. His open market value and his team value are pretty close to the same. We believe Emeka will be valued at 10.772 x 6 = (64.63million over 6years) Remember sometimes smaller markets have to pay a little more to land a 10million plus player. Charlotte could concievably pay upwards of 10% to get him to resign. Max deal 10.772 x 6 = 64.632 million +10% if Charlotte

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CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

Delonte West(Cle) CLE 2.319 6.381 3.514
Delonte West(Sea) SEA 1.192 2.616 1.338
Delonte West should earned 3.5 +1.3 = 4.852 million per year x 6 years (29.112 million / 6years) However Delonte may lessen the contract to a 3year deal knowing he is going into Cleveland as the starter.

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- DENVER NUGGETS -

JR Smith DEN 3.14 5.833 4.496
Interesting player here in JR Smith whom has lots of upside but is streaky and many teams wouldnt want to deal with what some call a risky headcase side. JR is restricted so he probably will not draw full market value. Expect to see JR Smith sign a deal for around 4.496 per = (4.496 x 6years = 26.976 million) Remember Denver is suppose to be over the luxury tax threshold and trying to save money.
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Corey Maggette LAC 9.75 11.892 10.085
Corey Maggette should be able to sign a contract at 10.085 x 6 = ( 60.51 million / 6years). Demand should not hit big for shooting guards and small forwards. This will keep Corey from 11.892 x 6 = (71.3 million / 6years).
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- PHOENIX SITUATION -

Gordon Giricek(Phi) PHI 0.378 1.648 0.128
Gordon Giricek(Phx) PHO 0.907 3.550 1.073
Gordon Giricek(Uth) UTA 0.517 1.932 0.480
Gordon is partially the exact thing that the Suns are looking for. A bigger oversized 2 guard, however Gordon has not played with the discipline and smart decision making to get him a contract more than 1 - 3 years. Expect Gordon to sign a one year deal in the neighborhood of 1.8 million per.
Brian Skinner PHO 1.054 3.229 2.355
If you are looking for a bargain it may be in a player like Brian Skinner whom has produced nicely for his oncourt time. We see Brian being worth about 10million over 3years or there is a possibility of landing Brian on a bargain price of 2.355million per.
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- BOSTON CELTICS -

James Posey BOS 4.939 8.385 6.343
James Posey was a very dependable backup that should draw about 6.3 million per or (19million over 3 years). There are too many shooting guards on the open market for a team to pay James 24.9 million over 3 years. However when teams win the NBA Finals other teams tend to slightly over pay for those free agents services.

Tony Allen BOS 2.960 5.685 4.300

There are going to be alot of people questioning how Tony Allen would be worth 4.3 million. However, numbers show that this kid could produce far more if he was allotted the playing time. Any GM that signs him for less will be getting a great deal and tremendous upside. Being that Tony is a shooting guard and not a starter he may actually only get half his value, however if someone sees Tonys value it would be 4.3 per.
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Atlanta Hawks

Josh Childress ATL 6.251 8.448 7.827
Another small forward that will be looking to be someones starting SF. Josh value however is about 7.827 per or = to about (39.125 million over 5years.)

Josh Smith ATL 11.623 13.246 13.428
Josh Smith is a small forward but his athleticism will allow him to get his full value 13.2 million x 6 years = (73.2mil / 6years) Theres no reason Josh shouldnt be over 70million for 6 years.

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HOUSTON ROCKETS

Carl Landry HOU 1.845 6.633 4.084

Carl Landry will be the guy that year after year will never get the monies that he is deserved for the role he will play on a team. Carl is not a starter nor will he ever be unless someone goes down. This means Carl will not get the 4 million per he deserves. He will more than likely get about 60-75% of his value. Some GM is going to look very smart signing this player for 2.5 million.

Dikembe Mutombo HOU 1.353 5.925 2.786
Dikembes time on the court continues to dwindle however he is still very effective at times vs certain teams. Dikembe should still draw 2.78 million per, but if he holds out he could land upwards of 5.9 for one season.
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SACREMENTO KINGS

Beno Udrih SAC 5.257 7.215 5.962
If Sacremento plans to keep Beno as their starter then expect to see a contract 29.81 over 5years (5.962 x 5yrs)
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PHILEADELPHIA 76ers

Andre Iguodala PHI 14.339 14.852 15.040
Andre isnt likely to come cheap with a breakout season. However, Andres open market value isnt near as high (14.852mil) due to several outside factors. He is however, worth 15.04 to the Phileadelphia 76ers scheme. This will be interesting to see the number of where Andre lands. I believe it will be (70million over 5years) if Phileadelphia signs him for any less than the GM has done a terrific job.

Elton Brand = part of 2006-7 values
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Milwaukee Bucks
originally I did not do a write up on the Bucks but for several reason I decided to add these tidbits of information about the team


Andrew Bogut MIL 8.803 10.816 10.628
Andrew has the size of a center but plays more like a power forward and hence why Andrew has not drawn the largest of purses. Andreww actually has a fairly nice size contract in store. He should draw (10.628 x 6 years = 63.768 million) if Milwaukee gets into a slight bidding war they may find themselves paying about 5% - 10% more.

Tyronn Lue (Atl) ATL 0.948 2.290 0.666
Tyronn Lue (Dal) DAL 0.419 1.140 0.306
Ty played for a couple different teams at an obvious different level. Lue has produced between 1.1 and 2.2 million per. He never really made a value of worth to Atlanta and Dallas. If you read between the numbers it has to concern you somewhat in his value. Demand is high in the NBA for point guards but 1.5 per seems to be the value of Lue.

Ramon Sessions MIL 1.329 5.175 2.528
This would be a great time to wrap up Ramon Sessions to a longer contract.

Maurice Williams MIL 7.744 8.947 7.738
Maurice Williams did not play all season but did come pretty close to his estimated worth on the court to the salary he is making. Maurice could also be very good trade bait if he shows he is healthy and ready to start for some team. He is worth basically every dollar he is paid, but maybe not to the Bucks with Ramon Sessions growing as a point guard. Having this value and production will make Maurice a nice commodity for the Bucks.

Malik Allen NJN 1.181 2.970 3.013
Malik Allen is not a starter so he may not get his 3million per that he shows he is worth on the court. However a GM will look very smart signing him to a contract 60-75% of his value. These are the moves that create additional win or two for a team.

Charlie Villanueva MIL 3.758 6.339 6.024
I know Charlie is not in a contract year but media wise, people really do not understand the worth that Charlie can bring to a team. He is hinging on not being a starter so if a team can sign him to a contract of 60-75% of his value. This will add a few wins to a teams strength. Fantastic value Milwaukee has on its books.

Richard Jefferson NJN 11.723 12.320 11.596
Richard was brought over in a trade with NJ and it honestly appears that RJ gives his team every dollar he is worth. Richard this year will be making about 13 million dollars. This should add alot of wins to the Bucks franchise.

Obviously, Michael Redds production has fallen off for being paid like the go to everything guy. However, he may simply need more quality help to free him up for better shots. With the addition of RJ, Malik Allen and the emergence of Ramon Sessions. These players will really help a core of players that struggled to find an identity.

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If you would like to see every player on the 2008 list please checkout http://scoutingthenba.com/nba/salary/salary_2008.htm

Remember when looking at players like Lebron, Chris Paul, and Dwight Howard you must remember the equation deals with how many teams are under the cap, around it or even or the cap. The amount of moves to be made to free up enough money to sign them is almost impossible for some teams. This limits the amount a free agent can be offered. 2009 -2010 however is shaping up for some teams to have alot of money available. Usually the only teams that can sign those players are their own teams. Also smaller markets tend to overpay players that are over 10million in value by approximately 10%.