Does Amare Stoudemire have a good chance to win the MVP?

[PHXfan85]

Why would you get flamed? That's pretty much what I said previously. The perception, real or contrived, is that Nash gets Amare his buckets a lot easier than other PGs would. Therefor Nash will always get a little of the credit when it comes to Amare's offensive game. That's why I said that Amare won't win it while Nash is on the team. Fine, Amare may finish higher than Nash in the voting...but he won't have enough support to finish higher than the Duncans, the LBJs, Pauls, and Kobes of the game.

While I completely agree with this, as it seems most posters do around here, I have a feeling that the voters will completely forget that everytime they see him cut to the basket with his arm extended up in the air, palming the ball with one hand, and finishing with a dunk that would shake the screen if I was playing 2K.

/homerism

(sorry for the long sentence)

[PHXfan85]

Amare will be a candidate, of course. He's booked for 23/9 or so, maybe 25/9 like last year.

He was 6th in the MVP voting last year and I don't see that changing.

Last year it was:

Kobe
Chris Paul
Kevin Garnett
Lebron James
Dwight Howard
Amare Stoudemire

Amare had ZERO first place votes. He also had zero 2nd or 3rd place votes, he only got 4th and 5th place votes, with only 27 total vote points.

He had a great season and didn't even sniff the top-3.

He can do exactly the same thing this year and he hasn't a prayer of winning the award.

Remember, Amare had less than half of the points Dwight had in 5th place, and about 6% of the votes needed to get 4th place. His presence on the MVP vote was negligible in terms of actual potential to win.

Too, there's no reason Amare should get significant exposure in the MVP vote with several other guys doing more in significantly more difficult situations. Compare Phoenix to New Orleans;

Far be it from me to say that Paul doesn't have help, but he doesn't have two former MVPs on his team either and Amare does. Paul was the leading scorer on his team as WELL as the primary playmaker AND he led the league in both assists and steals per game. He was a primary creator, relying on himself to get things done. Yes, he had Chandler as an excellent finisher on a lot of his plays and he had good chemistry with West and Stojakovic and such, New Orleans was a good and balanced team.

But his actions on that team were all about him making things happen for others, rather than completing plays. He was making plays for others, not just finishing them. Amare was a defensive liability and an absoutely spectacular finisher on offense... but he didn't contribute in nearly as many ways as any of the guys in the top-5 in the MVP vote.

He doesn't deserve to win the MVP, won't get the exposure to do so and that's just fine.

IF he happens to score 30 ppg or so, one imagines that he'll get a little more publicity but do remember that Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony both scored about 26 ppg and barely made a blip on the MVP radar: Iverson didn't appear on the MVP voting list with 26.4 ppg and Melo had a single 4th place vote (worth 3 points).

30 ppg is obviously not 26 ppg, but my point is that volume scoring only means so much. The other major scorers were Kobe and Lebron (LBJ being the only 30 ppg scorer in the league last year) but Lebron nearly matched Amare's rebounding and was ALSO a 7 apg player who managed to defend a lot better than STAT.

I don't see any scenario where Amare wins the MVP or even finishes top-3 next year, 30 ppg or no.

He had a great season, but he was starting to have an MVP season after Marion left. Sure, MVP status is not solely dependent on ppg and as other posters have pointed out STAT needs to improve on other facets of his game before he can achieve that MVP status (completely ignoring the "Nash factor"). If you're just going to look at stats then it is obvious that other players put up better numbers in various categories when compared to STAT.

The MVP award, however (IMO), is a mixture of player impact, popularity, and stats. If STAT improves on his D then you'll see him have a huge impact on both ends of the court, as opposed to a huge impact on the offensive end and a sporadic impact on the defensive end. Popularity is something that he already has, and will only go up if the Suns are winning games and STAT is in constant coversation (Read: Chris Paul in 2007-2008) in regards to clutch plays and highlight reel dunks, blocks, etc. Stats are already there and if he mimics his performance at the end of last season there is no way he isn't in the conversation for the MVP. I mean, hell, people were talking about it at the end of last season!

To say, "I don't see any scenario where Amare wins the MVP or even finishes top-3 next year..." is your opinion so I can respect that, but i respectfully disagree. I'm not trying to say he is a lock for winning it or making top 3, I'm just saying that I am not counting him out and won't be surprised if he is in MVP talks towards the end of next season.

That being said, your posts make my head hurt sherk.

[Chubby Chaser]

LOL @ the mere idea of Amare even being considered for MVP...... Take off your homer glasses guys.

[MaryvalesFinest]

Amare 30/10/2 = MVP

[tsherkin]

He had a great season, but he was starting to have an MVP season after Marion left. <snip>

The MVP award, however (IMO), is a mixture of player impact, popularity, and stats. If STAT improves on his D then you'll see him have a huge impact on both ends of the court, as opposed to a huge impact on the offensive end and a sporadic impact on the defensive end.

It won't happen; he won't go from godawful to significant factor on defense over a single off-season, it just won't happen. He will remain a poor (or, at best, mediocre) defender and he will remain a guy who's basically one-dimensional in his impact. He will, like Carmelo Anthony, garner little attention in the MVP vote.

Popularity is something that he already has, and will only go up if the Suns are winning games and STAT is in constant coversation (Read: Chris Paul in 2007-2008) in regards to clutch plays and highlight reel dunks, blocks, etc. Stats are already there and if he mimics his performance at the end of last season there is no way he isn't in the conversation for the MVP. I mean, hell, people were talking about it at the end of last season!

First problem; even in the 04-05 season when the Suns won 62 games and Amare tossed down 26/9, he was only 9th in the MVP vote.

I don't see that much changing this upcoming season; do you? Historically, he hasn't garnered the attention in the MVP vote when playing merely alongside Nash. With Shaq alongside him all season as well, there's no reason to think that people won't look at Amare and say "Hmm, 2 former MVPs, the Shaq effect AND the Nash effect... not the team's leader off the court, only the team's leading scorer... nope not the MVP."

To say, "I don't see any scenario where Amare wins the MVP or even finishes top-3 next year..." is your opinion so I can respect that, but i respectfully disagree. I'm not trying to say he is a lock for winning it or making top 3, I'm just saying that I am not counting him out and won't be surprised if he is in MVP talks towards the end of next season.

That being said, your posts make my head hurt sherk.

*chuckles*

You are free to disagree and I respect that but given the presence of Shaq and Nash and Amare's own MVP voting history, as well as the other players in the league who are in position to do more with less, I really can't envision Amare being a top-3 player in the MVP vote. I just don't see him surpassing Kobe, Lebron or Chris Paul and overcoming the mitigating circumstances he must "endure" on Phoenix.

[nashill]

i believe that amare will be used as a go to guy in the post with porter as the coach. if he can dominate and lead the team in to a good record, say 55 wins, he has a chance but that depends on how the team of paul, lbj, and kobe performs.


if the suns will go to pick n roll most of the time, like they used to, then credits will be given to nash.

i say yes, he can win the mvp this coming season but a lot of work to be done. has has to improve his defense, improve his leadership ( this is important to me), and of course help the suns to win 55+ games with his stats of 29 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assist and 2 blocks.

[tsherkin]

i believe that amare will be used as a go to guy in the post with porter as the coach. if he can dominate and lead the team in to a good record, say 55 wins, he has a chance but that depends on how the team of paul, lbj, and kobe performs.

Won't happen; he's 6 years into his career now, going into his 7th and he's made it clear that he is a face-up big man who uses speed, a jumper and excellent finishing ability off the high sidescreen to get his points. He's got a good face-up iso game and he can do the Duncan iso from 10-12 feet as well.

He does not have especially good footwork in the post and only has a couple of moves, with which he is not super-comfortable. He has made it abundantaly clear with comments made in the past that he doesn't like being a center (first when switched there and then when switched back by the arrival of Shaq), indicating a lack of preference for the back-down game that will hold him back.

i say yes, he can win the mvp this coming season but a lot of work to be done. has has to improve his defense, improve his leadership ( this is important to me), and of course help the suns to win 55+ games with his stats of 29 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assist and 2 blocks.

And you're not going to see 4 apg out of him either, he's never put into position to be a volume passer and he's not particularly good at it, either. Not bad, of course, but all he does is finish, so he's not going to wrack up assists like that. Look at Dirk; he's a very good passer and he can't even get above 3.5 apg, put into position as he is to make passes (too, he's also touching the ball more often than Amare).

I think we can probably expect 27 and 9 out of him, maybe (MAYBE) 28/10. 29 or 30 ppg is a remote possibility but with the other players on the team, it just doesn't seem necessary for him to be constantly going off for that many points, especially if the team is taking a slightly more halfcourt-oriented approach in order to more effectively use Shaq.

[BitonKOBE]

yah the best player on a contending team avg'ing 30/9/2blk has no chance of winning MVP.

KOBE wins again

[tsherkin]

Well, it's a bit ambitious to think that he's going to set a career-high in PPG this upcoming season and it's a bit ambitious to call him the best player on the team, too.

But as far as that comment goes, look at 01 and 02... Shaq averaged 29/13/14 in the 00-01 season, the Lakers won 56 and 58 games respectively and the title both years.

He finished third in the MVP voting both years. Some of that is on account of him playing 74 and 67 games, of course, but the point stands.

Raw scoring volume isn't sufficient to draw attention.

If Amare is going to score 30 ppg, he's going to have to average 18+ FGA/g and maintain his .561 FTA/FGA rate, while continuing to shoot about 80% from the line.

Let's take a step back; what's Amare's career-high in FGA/g?

16.7, set in the 04/05 season.

Does it make sense that Amare will average a career-high in FGA/g during a season in which the Suns will have a new coach trying to more successfully integrate Shaq into the halfcourt offense?

I don't believe so. Shaq only took about 8 shots a game as a Sun but that figures to change at least a little next year. Shaq played his first game for Phoenix on the 20th of February, playing the last 28 games of the season with the Suns.

In February (over 11 games, for 5 of which Shaq was present), Amare averaged 29/10.5 on 56% shooting.

In March, he averaged 29/9 on 58.7% shooting.

To this point, his FG% had actually deflated from the previous months of the season (minding that he shot 59% on the season).

In April, he averaged 26/7 on 62.3%.

Just to give some perspective, for the first 6 games of February (without Shaq), Amare averaged:

28.2 ppg, 12.8 rpg, 57.1% FG, 16.3 FGA/g, 10.5 FTA/g

He actually averaged 14.8 rpg over the first 5 games but then came out with a 3-rebound effort in that last game before Shaq started playing.

Now, with Shaq in February:

30.6 ppg, 9 rpg, 55% FG, 20 FGA/g, 9.4 FTA/g

So there's a big spike in FGA/g when Shaq arrives, a good indicator of the Shaq Effect, where the low post defender is too scared of Shaq to leave him to help on Amare when STAT gets the ball on the elbow and is threatening to dive into the paint (or otherwise when he's rolling off of a screen he set for someone).

But does it maintain? That's a 5-game sample of him shooting at that volume.

But we also know that in April, his FGA/g went down to 16.9 for those 16 games and then dropped again to 15.25 during the final 8 games of the season.

So aside from a 5-game sample in March, he's been comfortably stuck in his usual range of shot volume.

It's probably a good bet to predict that Shaq will take 10 or 11 FGA/g next year. He's a 60% scoring option and he'll have a coach that's looking to take some advantage of that, put the ball in his experienced hands (especially since he's a willing passer).

And again, you have to consider his team situation; Amare plays with a pair of former MVPs.

Kobe does not, and will post more impressive stats across the board because of his passing... and may well exceed Amare's scoring volume. Lebron, likewise, only Lebron may actually exceed Amare's rebounding if he's of a mind to do so (which is embarassing, because he's a SF and Amare's a PF/C).

Chris Paul is another guy who's both a 20 ppg scorer AND a dominant passer, a better defender, more involved in his team's success because he's not "merely" a finisher, something that will hurt Amare.

Remember, in the two best seasons of his career to-date, he's ranked 9th and 6th in the MVP vote and neither has been especially close. Again, he had 27 votes to Dwight's 60 this past year, not even half of the guy above him. In 04-05, it was even worse.

There can't be much reasonable expectation of legitimate MVP consideration for him. If he scores 30 ppg (which I find a fairly unlikely scenario), then it's possible, but even in that case, there isn't a lot of motivation to point to him as the MVP.

How do you define the MVP?

Best player on the best team? Trouble there, Amare isn't the best player on his teamd and as a player would look remarkably different without Nash. He'd still be an All-Star, but that scoring volume would deflate with his efficiency.

Best player in the league? Even at 30 ppg, that's not Amare.

Player most valuable to his team's success? That's definitely not Amare, that's definitely more in-line with guys of the Kobe, Lebron, Paul mould, guys who are carrying their teams to contention despite considerably weaker supporting casts (and Amare IS the supporting cast, Phoenix is very clearly built around Nash at this point).

So where's the argument for Amare as MVP besides "Hurr, he score 30 ppg, him shiny?"

Yes, he's talented; yes, he's valuable and critical to Phoenix's team success... but there are too many mitigating factors, too many other players with more reasonable situations, it's not going to happen.

[BitonKOBE]

So where's the argument for Amare as MVP besides "Hurr, he score 30 ppg, him shiny?"

haha ha. zing!

still..is amare a worse defender than dirk at the pf? last year he was an intimidating shot-blocker. if his post defense is even average this season, hmmm...

everyone knows shaq and nash are ancient and thats why nobody counts the suns as a top contender in the west. if they do end up contending, it will only be bc amare has an incredible year. if you dont think 30/9/2 is possible, OK...but if i didnt know that was yer opinion, i wouldnt know which side of the argument yer post was supporting.

In February (over 11 games, for 5 of which Shaq was present), Amare averaged 29/10.5 on 56% shooting.

In March, he averaged 29/9 on 58.7% shooting.

Just to give some perspective, for the first 6 games of February (without Shaq), Amare averaged:

28.2 ppg, 12.8 rpg, 57.1% FG, 16.3 FGA/g, 10.5 FTA/g

Now, with Shaq in February:

30.6 ppg, 9 rpg, 55% FG, 20 FGA/g, 9.4 FTA/g

So there's a big spike in FGA/g when Shaq arrives

im really not sure why yer concerned about his FGA going down w shaq? or did i confuse yer position on that?

There can't be much reasonable expectation of legitimate MVP consideration for him. If he scores 30 ppg (which I find a fairly unlikely scenario), then it's possible, but even in that case, there isn't a lot of motivation to point to him as the MVP.

well he averaged 28 ppg in the 'FGA-deprived' month of april (not including the last game of the season where he played 15 minutes).

hrmmm...the possibilities... anyway it doesnt matter. KOBE ftw.

[tsherkin]

haha ha. zing!

Sorry, that wasn't supposed to be a personal attack, just a little bit of hyperbole.

still..is amare a worse defender than dirk at the pf? last year he was an intimidating shot-blocker. if his post defense is even average this season, hmmm...

Yes, yes he is. Dirk isn't the same kind of shot-blocker, but he's also been learning how to play better defense. He does a decent job out on the wing and he does OK in the post as long as he's not physically overmatched.

Having said that, he's still a mediocre defender, but he's also not as bad as Amare because his fundamentals have noticeably improved at the same time as he has increased his effort (and both of those are issues with Amare).

If Amare worked at even Dirk's level, he'd be a much better defender because of his athletic gifts, and from time to time, you see him doing so and he's good. But on the balance of a whole game, nevermind a whole season, he's a poor defender.

everyone knows shaq and nash are ancient and thats why nobody counts the suns as a top contender in the west. if they do end up contending, it will only be bc amare has an incredible year. if you dont think 30/9/2 is possible, OK...but if i didnt know that was yer opinion, i wouldnt know which side of the argument yer post was supporting.

I think it's theoretically possible, it's not outside of Amare's ability to do so. Rather, I question whether he will be called upon to do so.

Remember, Shaq averaged about 13/11 with the Suns over about 30 games (12.9 ppg, 10.6 rpg in 28 games). He figures to roughly repeat those averages and perhaps score a little more this year. I don't envision him sticking at 8 shots a game with the Suns this season.

im really not sure why yer concerned about his FGA going down w shaq? or did i confuse yer position on that?

My point is this: if he's not taking 18 FGA/g with Shaq, he's not scoring 30 ppg... and consequently, he'll not garner excessive MVP attention because scoring is the only thing he does especially well.

well he averaged 28 ppg in the 'FGA-deprived' month of april (not including the last game of the season where he played 15 minutes).

Like I said, the issue isn't Amare's ability; he clearly has the wherewithal to go Karl Malone on us and score 30 ppg over the course of a season. Rather, it's his situation. It doesn't strike me as a wise move for the Suns to put that kind of pressure on Amare when there are other scoring options (Hill, Shaq, Nash, Barbosa, even Diaw) because it makes the offense stagnant when that one guy is having an off-night and it leaves the offense too open to defensive attack. A better plan would be to slightly increase Amare's shot volume, include Shaq a bit more and see what everyone else can contribute offensively within a semi-cogent half-court set.

Obviously, Phoenix will continue to excel with early offense, but no more SSOL; they need a coherent offensive system upon which to lean in half-court scenarios if they plan on succeeding in the playoffs beyond what they have already achieved and their overreliance on Amare in such situations hasn't done anything for them.

I don't think Kobe will win the MVP award this year, personally; I think he's more one-and-done in that fashion. I think his Finals series will leave a bad taste in everyone's mouth unless the Lakers win 65+ games the way Dirk's Mavs did after they (and he) choked in the Finals against the Heat.

I don't think Kobe will last out another 30/8/7 season from Lebron if LBJ and Mo Williams get the Cavs into 55- to 60-win territory.

[BitonKOBE]

yah i was only kidding. lebron is gonna get it.





unless amare does.

[tsherkin]

lol

I could definitely see Lebron winning it, Dirk's probably going to make a good case for himself, Kobe certainly has a shot, Dwight and KG will get some publicity votes, Paul too.

A healthy Wade will make a case for himself, I'm sure, and there's always Tim Duncan.

It'll be interesting; I think Amare's set up to have another really nice season, maybe a career-high in scoring by a few points, but I don't think he's going to go so far as to average 30 ppg, nor win an MVP.

Really though, it's all moot; if he averages 27 and the Suns win a title, then he'll almost assuredly win a Finals MVP and that's the one that REALLY matters to the rest of us, unless it's Jerry West-style.

[ma_falaa_50]

amare needs to put an effort at being a good defender period!

[tsherkin]

Absolutely. If Amare played average man defense, the Suns would be inestimably superior to their present level of competition. They're already a 55- to 65-win team when they're healthy and coordinated, so one must imagine what they'd be like if they didn't have two defensive liabilities on the floor at any given time but rather only 1.