Math: Why The Suns are Setting

Post #1 » by **rsavaj** » Mon Jan 18, 2010 7:47 pm

http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=374

The Phoenix Suns began the season 14-3. Since then the Suns are 10-14 and are only 1.5 games ahead of the 9th place Thunder. What has caused the Suns recent problems and is there anything that can be done to right the ship?

The Suns performance in the the last 24 games is simple to understand:

When Frye and Nash are on the court together and Hill is out the Suns play 23 points per game better than an average NBA team.
The rest of the time the Suns play 3 points worse than average.
When we look at the Suns Adjusted +/- ratings we find Frye (+14) has been great and Hill (-11) has really hurt the Suns. For example, when Hill plays our best estimate is that after adjusting for who he plays with and against he makes the Suns play 11 points worse per game than an average NBA player. So it looks like playing Hill less minutes would help the Suns.

When Dragic plays the point for Nash, the Suns play 15 points worse than average. In past years Barbosa subbing at the point for Nash (without Dragic) has been decent, so this might be worth a shot.

Post #2 » by **Miklo** » Mon Jan 18, 2010 7:59 pm

Funny, I was just looking at our individual and team +/-'es yesterday and saw that about Frye...I tried to ignore it since Frye always seems like such a disaster lately...I do wonder how his +/- now compares to the beginning of the season when he got all those open 3's and was more conducive to the fast-paced game.

justinb80 · Post #3 » by **justinb80** » Mon Jan 18, 2010 8:07 pm

Frye really needs to learn to do something else besides shoot 3s. He's a pretty terrible ballhandler, and seems to freak out whenever he's forced to do anything with the ball besides shoot it or make an innocuous pass on the perimeter.

MaryvalesFinest · Post #4 » by **MaryvalesFinest** » Mon Jan 18, 2010 8:15 pm

Jay Rich, Barbosa, Frye and Hill have been playing like scrubs lately. When 1/3 of your team plays like d-leaguers it would be hard to win for any team.

MarJJMar · Post #5 » by **MarJJMar** » Mon Jan 18, 2010 8:42 pm

We are old as dirt and Nash and Hill look 50 on back to back to nights.

justinb80 · Post #6 » by **justinb80** » Mon Jan 18, 2010 8:50 pm

MarJJMar wrote:We are old as dirt and Nash and Hill look 50 on back to back to nights.

I think Nash has been pretty consistent all year, even in back-to-backs. Hill is definitely looking older, though, and JRich stinks in b2bs.

justinb80 · Post #7 » by **justinb80** » Mon Jan 18, 2010 8:51 pm

We're also not old as dirt. Nash and Hill (and Collins, but he barely plays) are the only players over 30.

hunterxaz · Post #8 » by **hunterxaz** » Mon Jan 18, 2010 9:10 pm

yeah we're pretty young. average age is around 26 i think.

jensa · Post #9 » by **jensa** » Mon Jan 18, 2010 9:20 pm

I think Frye's impact is underestimated by some. The fact that teams try to take away his 3 gives us better spacing and ball movement. So even if he isn't hitting his 3s his presence has a positive impact on offense, which I think is the explanation for his high +/-.

MarJJMar · Post #10 » by **MarJJMar** » Mon Jan 18, 2010 9:58 pm

Then let me say we play much older than what our average is.

Our team is simply un-inspired and some seem to have mailed it in. Clark, Lopez and Amare were about the only bright spots on this road trip.

hunterxaz · Post #11 » by **hunterxaz** » Mon Jan 18, 2010 10:05 pm

I'd agree with Amare, and Lopez has had his moments. Clark, really, really stunk it up except for 1 game where he played mediocre.

YouTube · Post #12 » by **Kerrsed** » Mon Jan 18, 2010 10:07 pm

MarJJMar wrote:Then let me say we play much older than what our average is.

Our team is simply un-inspired and some seem to have mailed it in. Clark, Lopez and Amare were about the only bright spots on this road trip.

thapharcyd · Post #13 » by **thapharcyd** » Tue Jan 19, 2010 2:33 am

Hill is trash, I have been sayin this all season and everyone thinks I am crazy. We really need to upgrade SG/SF.

sunfire0112 · Post #14 » by **sunfire0112** » Tue Jan 19, 2010 2:35 am

thapharcyd wrote:Hill is trash, I have been sayin this all season and everyone thinks I am crazy. We really need to upgrade SG/SF.

Idk about trash but he's definitely not a starting SF. His "high basketball IQ" has been questionable these past few games as well.

eastsidecrossover · Post #15 » by **eastsidecrossover** » Tue Jan 19, 2010 3:50 am

Frye has not been playing well either, and Hill has the energy, but is not getting it done. I see some good stuff in Dragic, but he cant consistently keep this team going when nash is out there. He does not give it to our better players much at all. He does good at times, but most of the time, he does not keep this team going. He like rolo are young and have a lot of potential to be solid players, but not stars.

garrick · Post #16 » by **garrick** » Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:20 am

I say make Hill the pg on the bench with Dragic as the shooting guard. It might be easier for him to set other players up on offense instead of trying to find his own shot though he has been scoring a lot better recently.

grumpysaddle · Post #17 » by **grumpysaddle** » Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:59 am

hunterxaz wrote:I'd agree with Amare, and Lopez has had his moments. Clark, really, really stunk it up except for 1 game where he played mediocre.

You're starting to sound like MVF with his Nash hatred. Granted, he's insane and Nash is a much better player right now than EC, but seriously... I'm tired of hearing it from you. He's a @#&@#&@#&@#& rookie. Give him time to develop. Some things you say are just so bullheaded and stupid.

aIvin adams · Post #18 » by **aIvin adams** » Tue Jan 19, 2010 4:29 pm

i cant stand watching hill play this year. sometimes it looks like his turnaround fadeaway is the offense's first option. wtf?