Early Prediction on Amar'e

[SUN]

He might just walk. I think he wants to play for Miami, I hope he stays though!

[starbosa10]

same SUN i really hope he stays but he does like miami. depends on wade's situation and the cast they'll have down there

[JasonDaPsycho]

I believe that Amar'e is commited to the Suns
As long as we can offer him a reasonable contract (14-18 mil each year, 5 years total), I believe he'll stay rather than moving to other teams

[lilfishi22]

If you guy's think $14M/year is ridiculous for what Amar'e brings to the table, you either have a personal grudge against him, your just just plain blind. If we can get him to negotiate a deal where he's extended to ~$14M or a bit less per year over 3-4 years after next year, we do it and don't look back. If we give him the 4 year extension he is seeking, I would think he's smart enough to go down a few mil to stay in a place that changed his life; he might seem stubborn, but he's a good guy. I don't understand why half of you want him to walk, we'd be left with nothing and this time would be set back for ages.

Uh, the only reason we want him at less than 14M is because the CBA is about to gut the salary cap. You need to understand the whole story before you start shaming those around you.

A year ago everyone on this board would have been fine giving a near-max contract to him.

+1


$14m last season would have been considered a bargain and even though it is still much less than what Amare had asked for earlier, it is still something we have to carefully consider. From everything I've read, the new CBA is going to change the whole NBA economy, no one is going to be making $13m-$15m except for the super of superstars, like Lebron and Kobe, even Wade and Bosh may not get that look. $14m would've been a bargain last season, but $14m going into the CBA is quite possibly a cap-killing contract. This is the reason why we've only offered him a 2 year extension.

From Amare's point of view, it's in his best interest to go to whichever team will pay him the most money now and at the max years. It's likely he'll be looking at a significant drop in salary when he's an FA again after a 2 year extension with the Suns is over so he would be smart to get the max years at the salary level of the current CBA. That team that will offer him the highest salary will be the one he'll go to and that team will not be the Suns. For all the lip-service he's been giving fans about wanting to contend for a championship, I still think he's more likely to go to whichever team will offer him the most rather than the team that will offer him less but is closer to a championship.

From the Suns point of view, it's in our best interest to prepare for the new CBA by not having any major long-term contracts that run into the new CBA. Giving Amare that $14m contract at the max years will most likely run into the new CBA and his contract would do the same for us what Brand's doing in Philly.

This could be a big mistake and turns out the new CBA won't affect the salaries as much as most thought it would and getting Amare at $14m would be a bargain. But it's more than likely the new CBA will shed salary quite heavily and $14m will probably be a cap-killer in the future. I definitely don't want to see Amare go and would love to see him end his career as a Sun but realistically, the odds of him staying with us long term is about the same as the chance of us winning a championship in the next two seasons.

[Frank Lee]

I'm not buying that pro-mgt-bull spin LilFish....

These two ass-puppets are sending a message to Stat and the rest of the league that they are not willing to pay what it takes to keep him. They have made it F-n clear.

Stat put a price on his head, and Knobert and Kerr-plunk turn it down then spew the poop about 'its not the money, its the length of the contract'.... Jeezus, these two once again, are serving up their rear ends for the taking.

Stat's offer will be the STARTING bid from all other suitors.

The Dy'dumb'ic Duo will be forced to match, and then try snivel their way to a trade ? They couldn't make one when they had 3 or 4 offers, and you think they have the chutzpa pull one off when what little leverage they had is gone (and practically reversed knowing Knobert's aversion to spend money) ? These other GMs (ie Riley, Walsh) will be issuing a royal rump screwing with lowball trade offers. You watch, we will accept less for Stat this off season than what we had on the plate.

What a couple of tools. Sign him to avoid another JJ fiasco. Trade him if you don't want him. But to play this off, let it fester, then sink in to Stat that this 2 headed crap-slinger will not pay what surely 5 or 6 teams will, yet publicly pretend to want him here? Come on, IMO, there is no better way to assure his departure for 10 - 20 cents on the dollar. We are once again taking a very reactive stance. Stat should have been re-signed the day after the trade deadline. Now he is truly playing for a contract.

Sign him, play him, and then if you don't want him, then deal him. We are a far better team with Amare in the line up. This CBA BS strategy is just another facade for our spendthrift sponsor to hide behind and use as justification. Come on, he is talking about 4 years from now ? What ? We do not have 1 guy inked then ? This is all a ruse.

May be at least try to give the illusion that we are not that desperate to trade Amare,
or too cheap to keep him.

[lilfishi22]

I will agree with you Frank on "Knobert" and "Kerr-plunk" totally screwing up the handling of Amare's situation. Even with all the financial restrictions Sarver places on Kerr when it comes to trades, Kerr negotiated with what little leverage we had to begin with, to none at all. The moment Kerr/Ferry talked Z/JJ for Amare and the media caught wind of it, Amare's value went down the drain. Kerr basically created the bottom line for Amare's value and from there on, we were lowballed from every direction.

It's not like I don't want Amare paid and playing out the rest of his career with the Suns and keeping us competitive for years to come, it's that I know Sarver won't pay (as in big dollarzzz) for anything less than a proven superstar and Amare is clearly not that guy. I've listed the reasons before why Amare isn't a superstar and shouldn't be paid superstar money but this is exactly what's going to happen if we we pay Amare $14-16m for the max years.

I understand Amare gives us the best chance at ever becoming a contender again in the near future but the problem is, Sarver doesn't' believe that and even if he does, he won't pay for important pieces that makes a playoff team into a contender. We're just going to be exactly like the Garnett era T-wolves, we'll pay one guy basically max money but will be too cheap to surround him with contending pieces.

So while I do think that Kerr talking CBA is a ploy to reason with fans as you say, I also know that the new CBA will introduce significant drops in salaries and lower the cap. Call Sarver and Kerr whatever names you want but the new CBA will have every owner, no matter rich or cheap, working on a level playing field and Amare's contract will be a cap killer that even Mark Cuban can't do nothing about. The new CBA is a genuine issue even if Kerr uses it as justification for losing Amare.

Oh and I'm not pro-management.

[Arles]

The NBA would shut down if the new CBA came in with a hard cap and player's current contracts were untouched. What will happen is a new CBA will come in 2 years down the road and all contracts over a certain amount will be initially discounted/shortened to meet the new cap. There will probably be an option for players to "opt out" after a season or two if the league reduces their salary (to protect the Lebron/Kobe stars).

But, there's no way that the league will allow teams with 4-5 terrible contracts (and unable to get under the cap) to transition to the new cap without any changes to those contracts. It would be like setting up a speed limit sign at 65 miles an hour, recording traffic for two days, then coming back and saying everyone who went over 50 gets a ticket. It just doesn't make sense.

If they sign Amare to a fair deal (4 years @ $14 mil per + his option), the Suns will be fine. If it turns out the new CBA significantly changes the player % and cap structure, his deal will be reduced from $14 to 11-12 in the final 3 years (with him maybe having the option to opt out). And, if he did, he probably wouldn't see the same money anyway.

[Miklo]

I think I mentioned this a while back somewhere but my memory has been spotty lately so what the hell.

With the new CBA looming, when you look at signing someone like Amar'e how about a contract that is based on CBA terms? Like instead of a dollar value, have each year's pay level correspond with x, x being the current max-level salary. So bear with me. We sign Amar'e to a 5 year, 80% max contract.

If the CBA didn't change, this would look something like
$13.8 MM
$15.2 MM
$16.7 MM
$18.4 MM
$20.3 MM

BUT, let's say the CBA changes before year 3 and cuts a max level contract to 70% of what it is right now. Then we are hedged, and his payout looks like
$13.8
$15.2
$11.7
$12.9
$14.2

Something roughly like that, with the first 2 years under the same CBA but the remaining 3 years discounted to 70% of what they would have been. you get the idea. Thoughts?

[lilfishi22]

I think I mentioned this a while back somewhere but my memory has been spotty lately so what the hell.

With the new CBA looming, when you look at signing someone like Amar'e how about a contract that is based on CBA terms? Like instead of a dollar value, have each year's pay level correspond with x, x being the current max-level salary. So bear with me. We sign Amar'e to a 5 year, 80% max contract.

If the CBA didn't change, this would look something like
$13.8 MM
$15.2 MM
$16.7 MM
$18.4 MM
$20.3 MM

BUT, let's say the CBA changes before year 3 and cuts a max level contract to 70% of what it is right now. Then we are hedged, and his payout looks like
$13.8
$15.2
$11.7
$12.9
$14.2

Something roughly like that, with the first 2 years under the same CBA but the remaining 3 years discounted to 70% of what they would have been. you get the idea. Thoughts?

I would prefer if we gave him a deal that is percentage based rather than a set dollar amount. If it could be done then I'm all for it.

[MarJJMar]

Suns will extend him, they are on the same basis as far as money goes, the Suns will give in to the 4 year demands instead of losing him for nothing.