Noel, Philly, Phoenix, and Tanking

Post #1 » by **rsavaj** » Tue Oct 22, 2013 5:50 am

http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2013/ ... oenix-suns

WTFsunsFTW · Post #2 » by **WTFsunsFTW** » Tue Oct 22, 2013 8:30 am

In fact, only 4 teams with the worst record have ever won the #1 overall pick since the lottery began.

Holy crap I never knew it was that extreme!

phrazbit · Post #3 » by **phrazbit** » Tue Oct 22, 2013 9:20 am

His numbers are a little screwy.

The team with the worst record has a better chance at a pick between 4 and 6 (35.8%) than the #1 overall (25%).

He may be correct about a 35.8% chance of picking 4th, but there is no chance of picking later. After the three lotto slots the rest of the draft is purely by record, so team with the worst record picks no later than 4th, no matter how awful their lotto luck.

Post #4 » by **lilfishi22** » Tue Oct 22, 2013 10:28 pm

It's funny how statistics works. Statistically you should have the highest chance to win the lotto but historically, statistics says otherwise. As great as stats are, it doesn't always play out as it "should."

I haven't read too much about Noel's injury but from the sound of things, it looked as if coming back this season was not a matter of if but when. To sit him out this season must either mean his injury is worse or isn't healing as well as we were led to believe or they are shamelessly tanking. If it's the the latter than they are tanking the wrong way as per the article. Sitting the rookie for the purpose of tanking is not a positive for the club, for the team or for the rookie.

thamadkant · Post #5 » by **thamadkant** » Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:22 pm

The stats are fine... Unless it shows 99.9% - 100% chance to pick 1 with worst record an they pick 2nd... Then it shouldn't be a surprise.

jcsunsfan · Post #6 » by **jcsunsfan** » Wed Oct 23, 2013 8:53 pm

phrazbit wrote:His numbers are a little screwy.

The team with the worst record has a better chance at a pick between 4 and 6 (35.8%) than the #1 overall (25%).

He may be correct about a 35.8% chance of picking 4th, but there is no chance of picking later. After the three lotto slots the rest of the draft is purely by record, so team with the worst record picks no later than 4th, no matter how awful their lotto luck.

The team with the worst record can pick no later than 4th. For that team to pick 4th, three other "non-worst-three" teams would have to move up beyond their spot. That is highly unlikely and I do not believe it has ever happened. The team with the worst record has a 64.2% chance of getting 1-3 and a 35.8% chance of getting the 4th pick.

There is a nice chart here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery that is really helpful. I cannot seem to cut it and paste it here without it getting all scrunched together. .982

Durins Baynes · Post #7 » by **Durins Baynes** » Thu Oct 24, 2013 4:17 am

Having more odds never hurts. The Suns, like most teams in their position, will sensibly increase those odds. And they're right to do so.

SJSF · Post #8 » by **SJSF** » Fri Oct 25, 2013 6:55 pm

lilfishi22 wrote:It's funny how statistics works. Statistically you should have the highest chance to win the lotto but historically, statistics says otherwise. As great as stats are, it doesn't always play out as it "should."

I haven't read too much about Noel's injury but from the sound of things, it looked as if coming back this season was not a matter of if but when. To sit him out this season must either mean his injury is worse or isn't healing as well as we were led to believe or they are shamelessly tanking. If it's the the latter than they are tanking the wrong way as per the article. Sitting the rookie for the purpose of tanking is not a positive for the club, for the team or for the rookie.

Sixers fan here. We are shamefully tanking. But also Blake Griffin sat out his whole rookie year. Wasn't a big deal. Nerlens needs to develop his skinny body some more. They want him to add 20-30. Lbs but at the same time make sure his knee is strong enough to carry the weight. Even if Nerlens comes back at the end of this year. It won't help this team but maybe put him at risk for coming back to early. Derek Rose took a year and half off from his ACL. Nerlens injured his knee in February of 2013.

The Sixers are in complete tank/rebuild mode. We needed to do this ever since we signed Andre iguodala and Elton Brand to those bad contracts.

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Post #9 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Fri Oct 25, 2013 10:13 pm

I hate when people don't understand independence and probability.

Trade looks great for pushing Phx to the inside position for the best odds of the #1 pick.

BobbieL · Post #10 » by **BobbieL** » Fri Oct 25, 2013 11:24 pm

Really not sure its tanking but being smart. Dudley, Scola and Gortat are better on the teams they are going too than on this Suns team.

Plus, how many wins was Gortat going to give this team. A few maximum. Suns need a talent upgrade - could happen with this pick

Phystic · Post #11 » by **Phystic** » Sat Oct 26, 2013 7:15 am

Most people look at it like the worst team has a 25 % chance at the top pick which is far better than anyone else wooho! When they really shouldn't be looking it as a team vs team odds but overall. Sure worst team has a 25% to land is which is higher than anyone else by a good margin, but they have a 75% chance to not get it which is why usually the worst team still doesn't land it. Though you would think it should land more often than it does.

Either way, like others have said we can't get any lower than 4th if we finish with the worst record which is still a very good player in this draft.

phx#7 · Post #12 » by **phx#7** » Sat Oct 26, 2013 7:51 am

jcsunsfan wrote:
The team with the worst record can pick no later than 4th. For that team to pick 4th, three other "non-worst-three" teams would have to move up beyond their spot. That is highly unlikely and I do not believe it has ever happened.

The team with the worst record picked 4th from 2006-08.