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Grantland: The Awesome Blazer Starters?

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Grantland: The Awesome Blazer Starters? 

Post#1 » by Wannabe MEP » Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:55 pm

I really like a lot of Kirk Goldsberry's stuff, and this article has some intriguing analysis: http://grantland.com/features/portland- ... -aldridge/

Here's his thesis:
The Portland offense features a core group of performers who band together to produce a unified value worth far more than the sum of their individual parts. The Blazers remain one of the only teams left in the league to feature five starting players who clearly fit the old Wooden taxonomy of basketball positions. As a result, the team plays with a seamless flow and intelligent spacing. They consistently create shots for one another, in turn making each other look and play better. The five starters blend together to create perhaps the most balanced offensive attack in the NBA.


The best part of the article is this visual breakdown:
Image

I've long argued against the "old Wooden taxonomy of basketball positions." This article, and the Blazers this season in general, had me questioning that stance. But it turns out, Goldsberry's article is fundamentally flawed because...the Blazers starters just aren't actually all that good. He wrote the article about the wrong team: he should have written it about the Suns.

Since January 1 the Blazers starters have an Offensive Rating of 106.4 and a Net Rating of +0.4, average and average for a go-to unit. After a blistering start, and despite keeping everyone healthy...they're just not that special. Part of Goldsberry's argument was that they've done this without stars, but they had two all-stars this year, and Aldridge is a 3-timer now.

The Suns current starters (Dragic-Green-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee)? No all-stars, brand new cast of characters, major injury disruption mid-season, now starting zero players in the ESPN player ranking top 100 and only one in the top 250: Offensive Rating of 114.8 and a Net Rating of +7.5.

114.8 to 106.4 is a bloody beatdown when you're playing big minutes like these two groups. Blazers starters average ranking per ESPN? 74.4. Suns? 298.6. So the Suns basically average deep-bench material, while the Blazers field a complete crew of legitimate starters.

By the ESPN ratings, and by common perception, the Suns don't have the advantage at a single position. (By ESPN rank they're not even within 75 points at any position.) So what possible advantage do the Suns have?

Precisely that they DON'T "clearly fit the old Wooden taxonomy of basketball positions." Their advantage is spacing. Take that picture above, and add another 3-point shooter in the 4th slot. Up goes the 3-point rate, up go the points in the paint, up goes the True Shooting %, and up goes the offensive efficiency.

Wooden was brilliant. But he won all of his 10 NCAA championships before the 3-point line existed.
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Re: Grantland: The Awesome Blazer Starters? 

Post#2 » by Ring_Wanted » Mon Feb 17, 2014 11:10 pm

Los Soles wrote:.
.
.
By the ESPN ratings, and by common perception, the Suns don't have the advantage at a single position. (By ESPN rank they're not even within 75 points at any position.) So what possible advantage do the Suns have?
.
.
.

Foul. If you have watched the games this season you know we matchup extremely well against the Blazers.
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Re: Grantland: The Awesome Blazer Starters? 

Post#3 » by lilfishi22 » Mon Feb 17, 2014 11:41 pm

How are they defensively?
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Re: Grantland: The Awesome Blazer Starters? 

Post#4 » by lilfishi22 » Mon Feb 17, 2014 11:51 pm

Ring_Wanted wrote:
Los Soles wrote:.
.
.
By the ESPN ratings, and by common perception, the Suns don't have the advantage at a single position. (By ESPN rank they're not even within 75 points at any position.) So what possible advantage do the Suns have?
.
.
.

Foul. If you have watched the games this season you know we matchup extremely well against the Blazers.

I think that is his point. To highlight the fact that despite on paper having no advantage at any position (Goran>Lillard tho), we match up very well against them and have beaten them twice. We beat them because we are not a team with a traditional offense.
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Re: Grantland: The Awesome Blazer Starters? 

Post#5 » by Ring_Wanted » Tue Feb 18, 2014 12:03 am

Could be, but I think said 'common perception' is based on predictions before the season and not the actual kind of game (and players) Phoenix actually puts on the floor this season.

Common peception thinks of Frye, for instance, just like a weak defender and trash rebounder. Or PJ Tucker like a basketball midget. Or Plumlee like a skill-less stiff.

So how are this bunch of starters by default and nobodies going to challenge the likes of Aldridge, Batum, the rookie of the year and co? They can't, is what common perception says.

But common perception has not paying enough attention.

Restless effort, chemistry and well defined roles (on both sides of the court, no less) go huge ways in this era where so many rosters look like Frankenstein's monsters. And this team also has talent, although it may not have glitter.

The Phoenix Suns, on the other hand, are a team, an unit, and work as such. And it shows. Nobody is doing more with less. But you need to watch the games to realize it. Common perception is just a way to say 'on paper'. Good thing that the games are not played on paper.
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Re: Grantland: The Awesome Blazer Starters? 

Post#6 » by Superbone » Tue Feb 18, 2014 2:46 am

Ring_Wanted wrote:Could be, but I think said 'common perception' is based on predictions before the season and not the actual kind of game (and players) Phoenix actually puts on the floor this season.

Common peception thinks of Frye, for instance, just like a weak defender and trash rebounder. Or PJ Tucker like a basketball midget. Or Plumlee like a skill-less stiff.

So how are this bunch of starters by default and nobodies going to challenge the likes of Aldridge, Batum, the rookie of the year and co? They can't, is what common perception says.

But common perception has not paying enough attention.

Restless effort, chemistry and well defined roles (on both sides of the court, no less) go huge ways in this era where so many rosters look like Frankenstein's monsters. And this team also has talent, although it may not have glitter.

The Phoenix Suns, on the other hand, are a team, an unit, and work as such. And it shows. Nobody is doing more with less. But you need to watch the games to realize it. Common perception is just a way to say 'on paper'. Good thing that the games are not played on paper.


Great post, Ring and it puts into words why I enjoy watching this team so damn much.
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Re: Grantland: The Awesome Blazer Starters? 

Post#7 » by Charles Smith » Tue Feb 18, 2014 2:55 am

Superbone wrote:
Ring_Wanted wrote:Could be, but I think said 'common perception' is based on predictions before the season and not the actual kind of game (and players) Phoenix actually puts on the floor this season.

Common peception thinks of Frye, for instance, just like a weak defender and trash rebounder. Or PJ Tucker like a basketball midget. Or Plumlee like a skill-less stiff.

So how are this bunch of starters by default and nobodies going to challenge the likes of Aldridge, Batum, the rookie of the year and co? They can't, is what common perception says.

But common perception has not paying enough attention.

Restless effort, chemistry and well defined roles (on both sides of the court, no less) go huge ways in this era where so many rosters look like Frankenstein's monsters. And this team also has talent, although it may not have glitter.

The Phoenix Suns, on the other hand, are a team, an unit, and work as such. And it shows. Nobody is doing more with less. But you need to watch the games to realize it. Common perception is just a way to say 'on paper'. Good thing that the games are not played on paper.


Great post, Ring and it puts into words why I enjoy watching this team so damn much.


I dunno, those Terry Porter teams certainly has an aesthetic appeal! :wink:
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Re: Grantland: The Awesome Blazer Starters? 

Post#8 » by Wannabe MEP » Tue Feb 18, 2014 6:00 am

Ring_Wanted wrote:Nobody is doing more with less.

This was exactly my point. You make it sound like you're arguing against me, but we're saying the exact same thing. :dontknow:
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Re: Grantland: The Awesome Blazer Starters? 

Post#9 » by Wannabe MEP » Tue Feb 18, 2014 6:18 am

lilfishi22 wrote:How are they defensively?

106.0, and our guys are at 107.3 (since Jan 1), so slightly better than our current starters. Neither crew is very good defensively. But the key is the difference: offensive - defense, and our guys are clearly outplaying them by that number.

The numbers comparing Dragic-Green-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee to Bledsoe-Dragic-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee may be a little funky because of the timing during the season (offenses improve throughout the course of the season). But right now they show that we're quite a bit better offensively with Green, and quite a bit better defensively with Bledsoe. Overall, we've been good with either unit.
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Re: Grantland: The Awesome Blazer Starters? 

Post#10 » by Ring_Wanted » Tue Feb 18, 2014 6:25 am

Haha, not against you, but the notion from the media, ESPN, etc (common perception), that the Suns are at a disadvantage against the Blazers. They have a better record, but the Suns have played very well against Portland this season, and if these two teams were to meet in the playoffs, I wouldn't say the Blazers have an overall advantage at all.
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Re: Grantland: The Awesome Blazer Starters? 

Post#11 » by TOO » Tue Feb 18, 2014 8:07 am

Suns = coaching, Dragic, and effort.

Blazers = talent, talent, and talent.
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Re: Grantland: The Awesome Blazer Starters? 

Post#12 » by TASTIC » Tue Feb 18, 2014 9:14 am

That Blazers team kind of reminds me a lot of the SSOL Suns teams.

Lillard delivers All Star level PG play, who doesn't dominate the ball as much as Nash did but he still can drop 30 on any night with ease. Lillard scores differently than Nash obviously, but he makes his free throws, couldn't defend a fridge and he knocks down 3s at a high clip.

All Star at PF who can also do 30-10 with ease but like Amare, isn't a defender and hasn't shown a propensity to improve his defense at all. Can grab 20 boards when his heart's in it and can drop 40 when he's in the zone - makes his money on a mid-range jumper and converting his free throws.

Matthews at SG = Raja at SG. Raja better on D, Matthews better at both handling and scoring, but both make their mark on 3 and D.

Batum = Marion. Do it all SF, Marion the better rebounder/defender but Batum the better outside shooter and ball handler. Both called on to defend up to 4 positions and both in the shadows (for the most part) to their PG/PF.

Lopez = KT. KT's real strengths didn't show up in the stats, but we all know he was a legit low post defensive beast. Lopez's D is a bit underrated and he's been ridiculous in terms of efficiency/shooting %s.

Mo Williams = Barbosa. Mo's a better playmaker, Barbosa the better shooter/scorer/athlete.

Ok I guess not THAT similar, but it will be interesting if this team can get far in the play-offs. Ironically they might end up going against our foil all those years ago, Duncan/Parker/Pop/Manu...
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Re: Grantland: The Awesome Blazer Starters? 

Post#13 » by mixerball » Tue Feb 18, 2014 11:27 pm

Ring_Wanted wrote:Could be, but I think said 'common perception' is based on predictions before the season and not the actual kind of game (and players) Phoenix actually puts on the floor this season.

Common peception thinks of Frye, for instance, just like a weak defender and trash rebounder. Or PJ Tucker like a basketball midget. Or Plumlee like a skill-less stiff.

So how are this bunch of starters by default and nobodies going to challenge the likes of Aldridge, Batum, the rookie of the year and co? They can't, is what common perception says.

But common perception has not paying enough attention.

Restless effort, chemistry and well defined roles (on both sides of the court, no less) go huge ways in this era where so many rosters look like Frankenstein's monsters. And this team also has talent, although it may not have glitter.

The Phoenix Suns, on the other hand, are a team, an unit, and work as such. And it shows. Nobody is doing more with less. But you need to watch the games to realize it. Common perception is just a way to say 'on paper'. Good thing that the games are not played on paper.

very nice post sir.

and to have that chemisrty it must all fall into place. and why/how did they achieve this magical team spirit?
they are all out there to prove something. prove everybody that they were wrong about them individually and as a team. that, plus surprising(not at all if you knew what kind of basketball he played) hornacek, equals great basketball.
to me, individual heroism and highlight plays are all great to watch, but this all for one, one for all is the ultimate thing in basketball. and from this style of play, individual heroism and highlight plays just come along naturaly.
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Re: Grantland: The Awesome Blazer Starters? 

Post#14 » by Wannabe MEP » Thu Feb 20, 2014 2:44 pm

TASTIC wrote:That Blazers team kind of reminds me a lot of the SSOL Suns teams.

TASTIC, I can see what you're saying in terms of personnel, but I view the difference in position mentality as such a massive gulf. In the SSOL teams, Amare was almost always the 5, with Marion usually the 4. The Blazers never use Aldridge as the 5. Enormous philosophical difference.
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Re: Grantland: The Awesome Blazer Starters? 

Post#15 » by DRK » Thu Feb 20, 2014 3:06 pm

TOO wrote:Suns = coaching, Dragic, and effort.

Blazers = talent, talent, and talent.


Wrong. Terry Stotts has done a great job implementing the Blazer's motion offence. Their bench is what is holding them back from being legit contenders.
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Re: Grantland: The Awesome Blazer Starters? 

Post#16 » by TASTIC » Thu Feb 20, 2014 3:11 pm

Los Soles wrote:
TASTIC wrote:That Blazers team kind of reminds me a lot of the SSOL Suns teams.

TASTIC, I can see what you're saying in terms of personnel, but I view the difference in position mentality as such a massive gulf. In the SSOL teams, Amare was almost always the 5, with Marion usually the 4. The Blazers never use Aldridge as the 5. Enormous philosophical difference.

Totally agree on that part - I meant the strengths and weaknesses are similar. Amare at C or Amare at PF for argument's sake, he still had the strengths that LMA has at PF for the Blazers, same goes for comparing the players down the line

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