Golden State is the Evolution of SSOL

[bwgood77]

I take it you liked D'Antoni? I did.

Definitely. Clearly, imperfect coach. But I think he deserves a championship. And I think he's good enough to have one, but he's never been in quite the right circumstances.

But he should be recognized as a maverick who changed the game. Kerr took his principles and matured them and created one of the greatest teams in NBA history.

On another note, what are your feelings on the whole Harbaugh deal and him leaving? What are your expectations for the Niners this year?

Gosh, that one's tough. I get both sides of that one. Dude gets results. But he's an arrogant @**hole. Gotta be able to work with people in that role.

I'm nowhere near as tuned into the NFL as I am to the NBA, so it's tough for me to speculate on how good they'll be.

Yeah, I am ALL about the NFL from September to January....nothing better to me than games that actually have a big time impact on playoff chances every week, and all of them occuring on the same day...or at least most of them...for me, one of the best things is watching all the games at a sports bar. Make no mistake, the Suns are as close to my heart as the Chargers, but when every game counts THAT much, it has a much bigger impact on my emotions than a Suns loss, because a Chargers loss equates to 5 straight Suns losses, so the individual game is so much less important. Plus the win or go home in playoff games is much more intense to waiting on series to hopefully get exciting.

[Wannabe MEP]

Imagine it’s the end of 2007. The Suns have won 62, 54, and 61 games during the last three regular seasons. They’ve had good playoff runs, but thus far have been unable to break through to the finals.

Suppose you can choose two of these three to be your starting frontcourt for the upcoming season:

1. Amar’e Stoudemire
2. Shawn Marion
3. Tyson Chandler

You know you can get Chandler, but it's gonna cost either Marion or Stat. So these are your starting frontcourt options:

1. Marion-Stat
2. Stat-Chandler
3. Marion-Chandler

Who do you choose? What’s your starting frontcourt?

[NTB]

Imagine it’s the end of 2007. The Suns have won 62, 54, and 61 games during the last three regular seasons. They’ve had good playoff runs, but thus far have been unable to break through to the finals.

Suppose you can choose two of these three to be your starting frontcourt for the upcoming season:

1. Amar’e Stoudemire
2. Shawn Marion
3. Tyson Chandler

You know you can get Chandler, but it's gonna cost either Marion or Stat. So these are your starting frontcourt options:

1. Marion-Stat
2. Stat-Chandler
3. Marion-Chandler

Who do you choose? What’s your starting frontcourt?

Even i like Amare i would choose Marion - Chandler.

I think you would choose the same frontcourt if i understand your analysis correctly.

[Wannabe MEP]

I think you would choose the same frontcourt if i understand your analysis correctly.

Yep, definitely Marion-Chandler.

I don't think that would have been universally agreed upon back in 2007. Nor now. I definitely want the Suns to be thinking the exact same way, a la Draymond-Bogut.

It's hard to do much better at the 5 than Chandler with a developing Len behind him. But at the 4 I want a perimeter-oriented defensive beast: Draymond/Marion 2.0.

[Revived]

Los Soles you have to love the Teletovic signing. Personally, I do too because it's relatively cheap, low risk and I think he can do us good at the 4 spot off the bench for couple mins a game.

[NTB]

Los Soles you have to love the Teletovic signing. Personally, I do too because it's relatively cheap, low risk and I think he can do us good at the 4 spot off the bench for couple mins a game.

I think Teletovic is not fitting with Los Soles' ultimate goal in PF (which needs defense, hustle and very little playmaking maybe in addition to shooting) but still stretch 4s are always good.

[Wannabe MEP]

Los Soles you have to love the Teletovic signing. Personally, I do too because it's relatively cheap, low risk and I think he can do us good at the 4 spot off the bench for couple mins a game.

I think Teletovic is not fitting with Los Soles' ultimate goal in PF (which needs defense, hustle and very little playmaking maybe in addition to shooting) but still stretch 4s are always good.

Teletovic is definitely not my dream 4. But yeah...I guess worth a shot for the price and role.

I really want a Draymond Green/Marion 2.0-type player to start at the 4 next to Tyson Chandler. I'd love to swap Markieff (plus a pick or two?) for a 4 who gives us a quickness/spacing advantage and the toughness and versatility to guard big 4s, small 4s, and even quick guards after switches. (I don't think Teletovic is that guy.)

[Wannabe MEP]

Draymond Green 2014-15

• DRAPM: +3.4
• ORAPM: +1.2
• Total RAPM: +4.5
• Threes: 111 made at 33.7%
• Height: 6' 5.75" w/o shoes

Shawn Marion during SSOL -- 2004-07

• DRAPM: +2.3; +3.1; +2.9
• ORAPM: +2.3; +1.1; +2.3
• Total RAPM: +4.7; +4.3; +5.2
• Threes: averaged 96.7 made at 32.8%
• Height: 6' 6.5" w/o shoes

So our ideal candidate has the same basic profile:

• DRAPM >= +2
• ORAPM >= +1
• SF skillset and mobility
• Moderate shooter is good enough; just needs to provide a spacing threat
• 6' 6”-ish w/o shoes is tall enough

This is probably someone who is listed as an SF, has SF skills and size, and has played primarily SF…but has the toughness to guard bigger PFs. The move to PF doesn’t cost much defensively because the player has the grit to make up for it — and in fact, it may be an advantage because he’s now typically guarding slower players and weaker shooters. The move to PF makes him MUCH more valuable on offense, because now he’s got a quickness advantage a lot of the time, and because he’s pulling big dudes out of the paint for his teammates to take advantage of (see “Bledsoe, Eric” and “Chandler, Tyson”).

One important note: Marion was surrounded by great offensive players, and he was the best defender on the court. This team has better defenders, but it’s gonna struggle more with spacing (Chandler has no range, and Bledsoe is not Nash/Curry). So yeah, I want a Marion-esque player, but I’d take a downtick in D if it meant an uptick in outside shooting.

[Wannabe MEP]

Searching for Draymond/Marion 2.0 — Elite 3&D Wings

This is a list of wing-style SF/PFs with positive Defensive RAPM and at least moderate 3-point shooting (decent volume & %). Most of these are numbers are for 2014-15, but I went to previous seasons a couple times for guys who missed significant time this past season. I left off superstars because you don’t get LeBron James to be your “Marion 2.0”.

I didn’t factor in quickness or ability to guard bigger PFs. Those are important, but just really difficult to quantify. One thought I had was if we brought in somebody good who couldn't guard big 4s, slide Tucker to the 4.

Tier 1
Minimums: +2.0 DRAPM; 1.5 threes/100 possessions; 33% 3P

• Kawhi Leonard +4.0; 34.9%
• Andre Iguodala +3.7; 34.9%
• Draymond Green +3.4; 33.7%
• Jared Dudley +2.7; 38.5%
• Paul Pierce +2.5; 38.9%
• Serge Ibaka +2.4; 37.6%
• Paul George +2.3; 36.4%
• Danny Green +2.0; 41.8%

* two each for Warriors and Spurs on that list...not a coincidence
** most of these guys have championships; ALL have been a part of deep playoff runs

Tier 2
Minimums: +1.0 DRAPM; 1.25 threes/100 possessions; 31% 3P

• Thabo Sefolosha +2.3; 34.6%
• Trevor Ariza +1.9; 35.0%
• Anthony Tolliver +1.7; 36.6%*
• C.J. Miles +1.5; 34.5%
• Mike Dunleavy +1.5; 40.7%
• Klay Thompson +1.5; 43.9%
• DeMarre Carroll +1.3; 39.5%
• Iman Shumpert +1.3; 34.2%
• Reggie Bullock +1.2; 32.6%**
• Danilo Gallinari +1.2; 35.5%
• Manu Ginobili +1.1; 34.5%
• Kyle Korver +1.1; 49.2%
• Matt Barnes +1.1; 36.2%
• Rudy Gay +1.1; 35.9%
• Paul Millsap +1.0; 35.6%

*Tolliver?!? I always thought he deserved more of a shot than he got in Phoenix. Perhaps he was just incompetent in every other area of basketball.
**I really wish Bullock had gotten real minutes.

Tier 3
Minimums: 0 DRAPM; 1.0 threes/100 possessions; 29% 3P

• Vince Carter +1.0; 29.7%
• P.J. Tucker +0.9; 34.5%
• Harrison Barnes +0.9; 40.5%
• Chandler Parsons +0.8; 38.0%
• Gerald Wallace +0.8; 33.3%
• Kevin Love +0.4; 36.7%
• Jimmy Butler +0.3; 37.8%
• Luol Deng +0.3; 35.5%
• O.J. Mayo +0.3; 35.7%
• Marvin Williams +0.3; 35.8%
• Wayne Ellington +0.3; 37.0%
• Danny Granger +0.2; 33.6%
• Boris Diaw +0.1; 32.0%
• Joe Johnson +0.1; 35.9%

*Tucker is pretty much Tier 2. I'd love it if he shared the floor with another guy from this list, and they shared the brutal defensive duties (bigger 4s, the other team's star wing, etc.)

Honorable Mention

• Josh Smith -0.6; 31.6% -- long history of excellent DRAPM...not sure whether a) his number for last year was an anomaly, or b) he's just too old now
• Wilson Chandler -0.3; 34.2% -- thrived as small-ball 4 in NY
• Cleanthony Early +0.2; 26.2% -- rookie w/ limited minutes: will probably make more 3s w/ more playing time

[Wannabe MEP]

Wanna win a title? Stock up on wings who can play D and shoot threes…

San Antonio

• Kawhi Leonard +4.0
• Danny Green +2.0
• Manu Ginobili +1.1
• Boris Diaw +0.1

The Spurs won with three of those four on the court *almost* at all times, usually with Parker at the 1 & Duncan at the 5. E.g., lots of lineups like these:

• Parker-Manu-Kawhi-Diaw-Duncan
• Parker-Green-Kawhi-Diaw-Duncan

Golden State

• Andre Iguodala +3.7
• Draymond Green +3.4
• Klay Thompson +1.5
• Harrison Barnes +0.9

GSW did almost the same thing as SAS, with mostly Curry at the 1 and Bogut at the 5. Until they switched to ALL FOUR 3&D guys on the court.

Was this:

• Curry-Klay-Iguodala-Draymond-Bogut
• Curry-Klay-Barnes-Draymond-Bogut

Became this:

• Curry-Klay-Barnes-Iguodala-Draymond

[bwgood77]

Los Soles you have to love the Teletovic signing. Personally, I do too because it's relatively cheap, low risk and I think he can do us good at the 4 spot off the bench for couple mins a game.

I think Teletovic is not fitting with Los Soles' ultimate goal in PF (which needs defense, hustle and very little playmaking maybe in addition to shooting) but still stretch 4s are always good.

Teletovic is definitely not my dream 4. But yeah...I guess worth a shot for the price and role.

I really want a Draymond Green/Marion 2.0-type player to start at the 4 next to Tyson Chandler. I'd love to swap Markieff (plus a pick or two?) for a 4 who gives us a quickness/spacing advantage and the toughness and versatility to guard big 4s, small 4s, and even quick guards after switches. (I don't think Teletovic is that guy.)

What would you think of Taj Gibson as our 4? How would that work out? It's being talked about in the Markieff thread.

[NTB]

Of course Taj-Chandler won't work. But Taj-Len is similar to Favors-Gobert.

[saintEscaton]

Of course Taj-Chandler won't work. But Taj-Len is similar to Favors-Gobert.

Until Len proves that he can consistently drain knock down midrane jumpers without hesitation/ and or become a P%R threat/develop a reliable back to the basket game he won't be a focal point of the offense and will solely rely on oops , putback garbage buckets that result from dribble penetrtion. Molding him into a Stretch 5 is a whole nother story but with work and time he should be able to extend his range well beyond the basket with that feathery touch of his.



Favors-Gobert was the league's best defensive front court post-All Star break hands down passing both the eyeball and stat tests. Combined they were second in shooting efficiency( an astounding 57% FG) and third in offensive rebounds per 100 possesion. Len is comparable to Noel as a rim protector(higher contest %) but neither can hold a candle to Gobert who held opponents to the lowest field goal percentage at the rim(below 40%) with a league leading block percentage and points saved per 36 minutes and game as wel one of the lowest block to foul ratios. Gibson allowed more points per game/36 than saved in comparison tothe league average and graded out negatively in this metric. But anyways I'm not totally averse to forming a twin tower frontcourt if we find ourselves a two-way low post banger at PF but like Los Soles keeps pointing out the Dubs did just fine with their small ball lineup without a traditional 4 because Bogut/Dray were so darn good and they had a stable of wings who have the quickness to get around screens/picks in their rotation (Iggy,Barnes) who can provide perimeter shooting while defending the paint from entry by denying bigs the ball while pressing enough to baiti them into taking low percentage shots because they want to exploit a seemingly advantageous matchup

Here's a reference