What players can we compare TJ Warren to?

[Damkac]

Do you think Warren will be selected to Rising Stars Challenge game this season?

[bwgood77]

Do you think Warren will be selected to Rising Stars Challenge game this season?

I guess it depends on how many second year players they take. I think the following players would be selected ahead of him:

Wiggins
Parker
Smart
Randle
Payton

If they take 2 players from the same team, probably also

LaVine
Gordon

Then you have these guys, and I'm not sure if you would be chosen ahead of them or not..

Vonleh
Harris
McDermott
Nurkic
Stauskas

I think he has about as good of a chance as Booker.

It seems like they should try to get some Suns chosen for that weekend. Since they sometimes do the skills competition in teams, it would be cool if they had Bledsoe and Knight team up for that one.

I'd love to see them do a shooting stars with like Booker and Hornacek. I don't think a coach as ever done it as the ex player but that would be kind of funny. He probably wouldn't want to suit up again though.

[LukasBMW]

At worst TJ will be a Cedric Ceballos - Cleaning up offensive rebounds for easy points

I see him more of a new Shawn Marion though:

- He can hit the open 3
- Great rebounder
- Can be in two places at once
- A bit unorthodox
- Doesn't need the ball to be effective

The big difference is that TJ isn't the athletic freak Marion was in his prime and isn't as good of a defender. Prime Marion was a seriously underrated defender. Marion was one of the only guys in the league that could keep prime Dirk in check and Marion never got the credit he deserved for defending prime Kobe when Raja was taking a break.

That said, TJ has far more one on one/isolation potential then Marion ever did. Marion was not a great ballhandler and thus not a great one on one player. TJ has already shown the potential to be a huge problem for opposing teams in isolation.

[Mulhollanddrive]

Ceballos was a 21 / 8 player in his prime, Marion 21 / 11 in his prime.

If that's the floor and ceiling, I'd be more than happy.

[LukasBMW]

Ceballos was a 21 / 8 player in his prime, Marion 21 / 11 in his prime.

If that's the floor and ceiling, I'd be more than happy.

But I'd argue Marion had a way of effecting play that Ceballos did not.

Ced was never much of a defender.

What Marion did in the 05-06 season was just SICK.

I was lucky enough to see him dismantle the Clippers in game 5 of the playoffs live. One of the greatest performances I've ever seen.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/200605160PHO.html

36 and 20 with 1 turnover. Absurd.

[GMATCallahan]

I have felt since last season that Warren was analogous to a less athletic version of Ceballos. Warren is not as fast or as quick of a leaper—Ceballos was a greyhound—but he is similar in terms of scoring instincts on the break and along the baseline, activity and alertness without the basketball, and body control. Like Ceballos, Warren is not a natural jump-shooter yet has shown a capacity for improvement. I believe that Ceballos was an inch or half-inch taller (Warren is ridiculously listed at 6'8", whereas he looks closer to 6'5" to me), and he constituted a better rebounder, which is probably the biggest difference between the two.

Naturally, there are some similarities to Marion as well, but Warren is not the superior athlete, defender, and rebounder that Marion happened to be. Like Ceballos, Warren handles the ball better than Marion.

Like Ceballos and Marion, Dumas excelled on the baseline and could really move without the ball, hence inviting that comparison, but Dumas probably had two inches on Warren (they are both listed at 6'8", but I believe that Dumas was 6'7" and that Warren in 6'5"), and he was a bigger, stronger, far more explosive athlete—more like Vince Carter in that regard—with a smoother and more dangerous jump-shot.

Analogizing T.J. Warren to James Worthy is amusing; I will leave it at that. I do not really see the comparisons to Worthy, Glenn Robinson, or Bernard King. Worthy and Robinson were number-one overall draft picks, and King was a scoring champion. You could throw the ball to all those guys and have them carry you as an "alpha" scorer. Warren is not really like that; he is a complementary scorer who will primarily play off the basketball, run, and cut, but like Ceballos, he functions so effectively in that role that he can post major scoring numbers regardless. I suppose that the analogy to King is based on smoothness of actions and body control, along with the ability to thrive on the baseline; there are some similarities in that regard. But King possessed a bigger, stronger body that he would really lay on people—more similar to LeBron James in that area, only with better footwork than James in the post. King was a more physical scorer than Warren.

[Qwigglez]

I have felt since last season that Warren was analogous to a less athletic version of Ceballos. Warren is not as fast or as quick of a leaper—Ceballos was a greyhound—but he is similar in terms of scoring instincts on the break and along the baseline, activity and alertness without the basketball, and body control. Like Ceballos, Warren is not a natural jump-shooter yet has shown a capacity for improvement. I believe that Ceballos was an inch or half-inch taller (Warren is ridiculously listed at 6'8", whereas he looks closer to 6'5" to me), and he constituted a better rebounder, which is probably the biggest difference between the two.

Naturally, there are some similarities to Marion as well, but Warren is not the superior athlete, defender, and rebounder that Marion happened to be. Like Ceballos, Warren handles the ball better than Marion.

Like Ceballos and Marion, Dumas excelled on the baseline and could really move without the ball, hence inviting that comparison, but Dumas probably had two inches on Warren (they are both listed at 6'8", but I believe that Dumas was 6'7" and that Warren in 6'5"), and he was a bigger, stronger, far more explosive athlete—more like Vince Carter in that regard—with a smoother and more dangerous jump-shot.

Analogizing T.J. Warren to James Worthy is amusing; I will leave it at that. I do not really see the comparisons to Worthy, Glenn Robinson, or Bernard King. Worthy and Robinson were number-one overall draft picks, and King was a scoring champion. You could throw the ball to all those guys and have them carry you as an "alpha" scorer. Warren is not really like that; he is a complementary scorer who will primarily play off the basketball, run, and cut, but like Ceballos, he functions so effectively in that role that he can post major scoring numbers regardless. I suppose that the analogy to King is based on smoothness of actions and body control, along with the ability to thrive on the baseline; there are some similarities in that regard. But King possessed a bigger, stronger body that he would really lay on people—more similar to LeBron James in that area, only with better footwork than James in the post. King was a more physical scorer than Warren.

Good analysis. Only gripe I have is you calling Warren 6'5. At the draft combine he measured at 6'7 without shoes. With shoes he's at 6'8.25.

[GMATCallahan]

At worst TJ will be a Cedric Ceballos - Cleaning up offensive rebounds for easy points

Ceballos did more than clean up the offensive glass for easy points. Saying that Warren will be Ceballos "at worst" is hyperbole. Cedric Ceballos averaged over 19.0 points per game for three consecutive seasons and averaged over 21.0 points per game in two straight years for Laker teams that respectively won 48 games—and a playoff series—and then 53 games—while ranking fourth in Offensive Rating (points scored per possession). He once scored 50 points in a game, made an All-Star team, and led the league in field goal percentage one year. Over a three-season stretch in the mid-nineties from 1994-1996, Ceballos averaged 20.8 points, 7.1 rebounds, a .524 field goal percentage, and a .581 True Shooting Percentage. Perhaps Warren could one day produce those numbers—but "at worst" would be an awfully lofty standard.

I see him more of a new Shawn Marion though:

- He can hit the open 3
- Great rebounder
- Can be in two places at once
- A bit unorthodox
- Doesn't need the ball to be effective

I am not sure how Warren profiles as a "great rebounder" like Marion. He does not rebound as well as Ceballos, let alone Marion. Ceballos also "did not need the ball to be effective"—he could score 40-50 points without plays ever being called for him—and could "be in two places at once"—Ceballos' game was predicated on movement and a nose for the ball. And if the spot-up corner three had been emphasized in Ceballos' era the way that it is now, he probably would have been better at shooting threes.

The big difference is that TJ isn't the athletic freak Marion was in his prime and isn't as good of a defender. Prime Marion was a seriously underrated defender. Marion was one of the only guys in the league that could keep prime Dirk in check and Marion never got the credit he deserved for defending prime Kobe when Raja was taking a break.

Marion indeed constituted a very valuable and underrated defender, but his strength, in my opinion, was help defense more than individual defense. He was not quite Scottie Pippen defensively, but he offered many of the same assets in terms of getting his hands on all kinds of balls for steals, blocks, and deflections while clogging passing lanes and ranging all over the floor. In terms of man-to-man defense, Marion offered versatility in the sense that he could defend four different positions, but he did not possess the best lateral quickness on the perimeter or much strength inside. I am not sure about him being some kind of Dirk-stopper, either. In the 2006 Western Conference Finals versus Phoenix, Nowitzki averaged 28.0 points per game on a .577 True Shooting Percentage, including a 50-point performance. In the 2005 Western Conference Semifinals versus Phoenix, Nowitzki averaged 26.5 points per game, and although his field goal percentage was not great, it was 101 points higher than it had been versus Houston in the preceding First Round series. Undoubtedly, Marion did a fine job on Nowitzki at times, but one may remember that in those day, the Dallas forward sometimes ran into problems against undersized defenders—Bruce Bowen, Stephen Jackson, Marion—who would get under him and take away the air space for his patented jumpers from the top of the key and at the elbows extended. Nowitzki lacked the quickness to blow by these defenders, and at that stage of his career, he had not developed the moves on the block and along the baseline where he would post-up or back them down before spinning or falling away to score. By 2011, when Dallas won the championship, Nowitzki had indeed developed that ability, hence enabling him to punish smaller, quicker defenders in a manner that he had lacked a few years earlier.

That said, TJ has far more one on one/isolation potential then Marion ever did. Marion was not a great ballhandler and thus not a great one on one player. TJ has already shown the potential to be a huge problem for opposing teams in isolation.

While I concur that Warren offers greater upside as a one-on-one scorer than Marion, I do not see this area as one of Warren's strengths. He can take advantage of mismatches in isolation, but if the Suns continually throw him the ball in isolation, his shooting and scoring efficiency will drop dramatically. Moreover, he is unlikely to draw double-teams by playing one-on-one.

Without a switch, a cross-match, or a mismatch, very few players, really, should ever play one-on-one in the NBA. I doubt that Warren will be one of them. He will be best served by scoring as a slasher, a cutter, a runner, and sometimes a shooter.

[GMATCallahan]

I have felt since last season that Warren was analogous to a less athletic version of Ceballos. Warren is not as fast or as quick of a leaper—Ceballos was a greyhound—but he is similar in terms of scoring instincts on the break and along the baseline, activity and alertness without the basketball, and body control. Like Ceballos, Warren is not a natural jump-shooter yet has shown a capacity for improvement. I believe that Ceballos was an inch or half-inch taller (Warren is ridiculously listed at 6'8", whereas he looks closer to 6'5" to me), and he constituted a better rebounder, which is probably the biggest difference between the two.

Naturally, there are some similarities to Marion as well, but Warren is not the superior athlete, defender, and rebounder that Marion happened to be. Like Ceballos, Warren handles the ball better than Marion.

Like Ceballos and Marion, Dumas excelled on the baseline and could really move without the ball, hence inviting that comparison, but Dumas probably had two inches on Warren (they are both listed at 6'8", but I believe that Dumas was 6'7" and that Warren in 6'5"), and he was a bigger, stronger, far more explosive athlete—more like Vince Carter in that regard—with a smoother and more dangerous jump-shot.

Analogizing T.J. Warren to James Worthy is amusing; I will leave it at that. I do not really see the comparisons to Worthy, Glenn Robinson, or Bernard King. Worthy and Robinson were number-one overall draft picks, and King was a scoring champion. You could throw the ball to all those guys and have them carry you as an "alpha" scorer. Warren is not really like that; he is a complementary scorer who will primarily play off the basketball, run, and cut, but like Ceballos, he functions so effectively in that role that he can post major scoring numbers regardless. I suppose that the analogy to King is based on smoothness of actions and body control, along with the ability to thrive on the baseline; there are some similarities in that regard. But King possessed a bigger, stronger body that he would really lay on people—more similar to LeBron James in that area, only with better footwork than James in the post. King was a more physical scorer than Warren.

Good analysis. Only gripe I have is you calling Warren 6'5. At the draft combine he measured at 6'7 without shoes. With shoes he's at 6'8.25.

... that's what the listings say, but I sometimes harbor doubts about them. According to Warren's measurement at the "Kevin Durant Camp" in 2011, he was 6'9" in shoes.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/T.J.-Warren-6436/stats/

The exaggeration had come down by the NBA Draft Combine, but did it come down all the way?

Visually, do you think that Warren is as tall as Scottie Pippen and taller than Vince Carter and Paul Pierce?

I may be wrong, and I certainly may have undersold his height; he could be at least 6'6". However, there could also be some fudging that comes out of the NBA Draft combine, and plenty of NBA players are at least two inches shorter than their listed heights.

[Qwigglez]

IDK man, he looks to be 6'6 to 6'7 in my eyes. PJ Tucker is probably 6'4 and Warren looks at least 2 inches taller than him.

[GMATCallahan]

Ceballos was a 21 / 8 player in his prime, Marion 21 / 11 in his prime.

If that's the floor and ceiling, I'd be more than happy.

But I'd argue Marion had a way of effecting play that Ceballos did not.

Ced was never much of a defender.

What Marion did in the 05-06 season was just SICK.

I was lucky enough to see him dismantle the Clippers in game 5 of the playoffs live. One of the greatest performances I've ever seen.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/200605160PHO.html

36 and 20 with 1 turnover. Absurd.

Marion was a two-way player. Ceballos was a purer scorer than Marion, but Marion's development of a three-point shot in an era that encouraged it helped him post the same kinds of scoring averages.

Ironically, when Ceballos returned to Phoenix in 1997 after spending two-plus years with the Lakers, his defense improved—at least in the playoffs. For instance, I have studied Game Three of the 1997 Western Conference First Round between Phoenix and Seattle a couple of times since September 2014, and in the fourth quarter especially, Ceballos was flying around the court on defense—blocking and altering shots at the rim, plugging the lane, trapping on the perimeter and zipping back to protect the basket while functioning as an undersized 'power forward.' He shot 2-9 from the field in that game and scored just 4 points, but his defense off the bench rendered him a major contributor. The Suns allowed 40 points in the first quarter yet yielded no more than 22 in any of the remaining three quarters, and Ceballos' defense played a significant role, especially in the fourth period.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/199704290PHO.html

He actually played so hard, especially on defense, that he fainted on the bench at the end of the game and had to be carried back to the locker room by several of his teammates before the final buzzer.

http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?date=19970430&slug=2536602

If Ceballos had played that kind of defense throughout his career, he would have become one of the best small forwards in the game.

Studying some more film, I actually think that Ceballos was better defensively—more focused, more sound, less lapse-prone—during the 1992 playoffs than during the 1993 playoffs. Usually a young player improves defensively year-to-year, but the change from the Cotton Fitzsimmons era to the laissez-faire Paul Westphal/Charles Barkley era probably caused Ceballos' defense to stagnate and perhaps regress.

[GMATCallahan]

IDK man, he looks to be 6'6 to 6'7 in my eyes. PJ Tucker is probably 6'4 and Warren looks at least 2 inches taller than him.

I was really focusing on Warren's height while watching a replay of the Golden State game earlier today, and 6'6" seems right to me. I probably undersold him with the 6'5" figure.

I agree about Tucker, except I see him as 6'4" max ... max. He could be 6'3" and 3/4 or even 6'3" and 1/2.

[GMATCallahan]

Can't think of a better choice than King. I was thinking maybe Drexler, but Drexler was faster (with those long strides and elevation) and was a better passer.

... and a much better rebounder, post-up player, slasher, defender ... Drexler was one of the best shooting guards and all-around players of all-time.

I like Warren very much, but some of these analogies are fantastical in my opinion. Obviously, people are comparing physical actions more than anything, but Drexler and Worthy were explosive athletes who possessed terrorizing speed and quickness.

Warren will occupy a much lower niche in this league, but he does figure to fill a hole at small forward.

[bwgood77]

At worst TJ will be a Cedric Ceballos - Cleaning up offensive rebounds for easy points

Ceballos did more than clean up the offensive glass for easy points. Saying that Warren will be Ceballos "at worst" is hyperbole. Cedric Ceballos averaged over 19.0 points per game for three consecutive seasons and averaged over 21.0 points per game in two straight years for Laker teams that respectively won 48 games—and a playoff series—and then 53 games—while ranking fourth in Offensive Rating (points scored per possession). He once scored 50 points in a game, made an All-Star team, and led the league in field goal percentage one year. Over a three-season stretch in the mid-nineties from 1994-1996, Ceballos averaged 20.8 points, 7.1 rebounds, a .524 field goal percentage, and a .581 True Shooting Percentage. Perhaps Warren could one day produce those numbers—but "at worst" would be an awfully lofty standard.

I see him more of a new Shawn Marion though:

- He can hit the open 3
- Great rebounder
- Can be in two places at once
- A bit unorthodox
- Doesn't need the ball to be effective

I am not sure how Warren profiles as a "great rebounder" like Marion. He does not rebound as well as Ceballos, let alone Marion. Ceballos also "did not need the ball to be effective"—he could score 40-50 points without plays ever being called for him—and could "be in two places at once"—Ceballos' game was predicated on movement and a nose for the ball. And if the spot-up corner three had been emphasized in Ceballos' era the way that it is now, he probably would have been better at shooting threes.

The big difference is that TJ isn't the athletic freak Marion was in his prime and isn't as good of a defender. Prime Marion was a seriously underrated defender. Marion was one of the only guys in the league that could keep prime Dirk in check and Marion never got the credit he deserved for defending prime Kobe when Raja was taking a break.

Marion indeed constituted a very valuable and underrated defender, but his strength, in my opinion, was help defense more than individual defense. He was not quite Scottie Pippen defensively, but he offered many of the same assets in terms of getting his hands on all kinds of balls for steals, blocks, and deflections while clogging passing lanes and ranging all over the floor. In terms of man-to-man defense, Marion offered versatility in the sense that he could defend four different positions, but he did not possess the best lateral quickness on the perimeter or much strength inside. I am not sure about him being some kind of Dirk-stopper, either. In the 2006 Western Conference Finals versus Phoenix, Nowitzki averaged 28.0 points per game on a .577 True Shooting Percentage, including a 50-point performance. In the 2005 Western Conference Semifinals versus Phoenix, Nowitzki averaged 26.5 points per game, and although his field goal percentage was not great, it was 101 points higher than it had been versus Houston in the preceding First Round series. Undoubtedly, Marion did a fine job on Nowitzki at times, but one may remember that in those day, the Dallas forward sometimes ran into problems against undersized defenders—Bruce Bowen, Stephen Jackson, Marion—who would get under him and take away the air space for his patented jumpers from the top of the key and at the elbows extended. Nowitzki lacked the quickness to blow by these defenders, and at that stage of his career, he had not developed the moves on the block and along the baseline where he would post-up or back them down before spinning or falling away to score. By 2011, when Dallas won the championship, Nowitzki had indeed developed that ability, hence enabling him to punish smaller, quicker defenders in a manner that he had lacked a few years earlier.

That said, TJ has far more one on one/isolation potential then Marion ever did. Marion was not a great ballhandler and thus not a great one on one player. TJ has already shown the potential to be a huge problem for opposing teams in isolation.

While I concur that Warren offers greater upside as a one-on-one scorer than Marion, I do not see this area as one of Warren's strengths. He can take advantage of mismatches in isolation, but if the Suns continually throw him the ball in isolation, his shooting and scoring efficiency will drop dramatically. Moreover, he is unlikely to draw double-teams by playing one-on-one.

Without a switch, a cross-match, or a mismatch, very few players, really, should ever play one-on-one in the NBA. I doubt that Warren will be one of them. He will be best served by scoring as a slasher, a cutter, a runner, and sometimes a shooter.

Curious if you feel in this day's nba, fans typically overrate rookies or young players, or even draft picks moreso than they did in the past.

Also, about your Warren rebounding comment, I think he is one of the best I've seen in somehow getting in the perfect position for an offensive rebound and putback. He is also so smooth from mid range and in. His 3 pt shooting % has been impressive. I won't necessarily put a ceiling on what he can become, but I have hopes that him and Booker can be the type of guys that turn into premier players that we hope to find in FA, which is typically a losing proposition, and will get more difficult this year when everyone has cap room.

[bwgood77]

Studying some more film, I actually think that Ceballos was better defensively—more focused, more sound, less lapse-prone—during the 1992 playoffs than during the 1993 playoffs. Usually a young player improves defensively year-to-year, but the change from the Cotton Fitzsimmons era to the laissez-faire Paul Westphal/Charles Barkley era probably caused Ceballos' defense to stagnate and perhaps regress.

It makes me mad that Cotton stepped down for Westphal. It seemed he didn't want to deal with Barkley, but, man, if he could have really just somehow demanded the ball run through KJ on offense at all times (not sure that was possible with Barkley a guy that might do what he wanted anyway), I think that team could have had a three-peat. KJ was in historic company stat wise when Barkley showed up, and this was a guy who did it in his 2nd-4th years in the nba. Barkley somewhat diminished KJ. I don't really think that if the offense always ran through KJ that it would have impacted Barkley #s much...perhaps fewer assists, but maybe more easy looks, though I guess Barkley did like to back down on the block and get position and put it in anyway. We may have had this conversation before though.

On another note, how good do you think the team would currently be if they had gotten Aldridge and do you think they should keep Markieff?

[PackSuns]

I have felt since last season that Warren was analogous to a less athletic version of Ceballos. Warren is not as fast or as quick of a leaper—Ceballos was a greyhound—but he is similar in terms of scoring instincts on the break and along the baseline, activity and alertness without the basketball, and body control. Like Ceballos, Warren is not a natural jump-shooter yet has shown a capacity for improvement. I believe that Ceballos was an inch or half-inch taller (Warren is ridiculously listed at 6'8", whereas he looks closer to 6'5" to me), and he constituted a better rebounder, which is probably the biggest difference between the two.

Naturally, there are some similarities to Marion as well, but Warren is not the superior athlete, defender, and rebounder that Marion happened to be. Like Ceballos, Warren handles the ball better than Marion.

Like Ceballos and Marion, Dumas excelled on the baseline and could really move without the ball, hence inviting that comparison, but Dumas probably had two inches on Warren (they are both listed at 6'8", but I believe that Dumas was 6'7" and that Warren in 6'5"), and he was a bigger, stronger, far more explosive athlete—more like Vince Carter in that regard—with a smoother and more dangerous jump-shot.

Analogizing T.J. Warren to James Worthy is amusing; I will leave it at that. I do not really see the comparisons to Worthy, Glenn Robinson, or Bernard King. Worthy and Robinson were number-one overall draft picks, and King was a scoring champion. You could throw the ball to all those guys and have them carry you as an "alpha" scorer. Warren is not really like that; he is a complementary scorer who will primarily play off the basketball, run, and cut, but like Ceballos, he functions so effectively in that role that he can post major scoring numbers regardless. I suppose that the analogy to King is based on smoothness of actions and body control, along with the ability to thrive on the baseline; there are some similarities in that regard. But King possessed a bigger, stronger body that he would really lay on people—more similar to LeBron James in that area, only with better footwork than James in the post. King was a more physical scorer than Warren.

Good analysis. Only gripe I have is you calling Warren 6'5. At the draft combine he measured at 6'7 without shoes. With shoes he's at 6'8.25.

... that's what the listings say, but I sometimes harbor doubts about them. According to Warren's measurement at the "Kevin Durant Camp" in 2011, he was 6'9" in shoes.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/T.J.-Warren-6436/stats/

The exaggeration had come down by the NBA Draft Combine, but did it come down all the way?

Visually, do you think that Warren is as tall as Scottie Pippen and taller than Vince Carter and Paul Pierce?

I may be wrong, and I certainly may have undersold his height; he could be at least 6'6". However, there could also be some fudging that comes out of the NBA Draft combine, and plenty of NBA players are at least two inches shorter than their listed heights.

Warren is 6'7 without shoes

[Qwigglez]

Just an interesting note, last 3 games Warren is averaging 20.6 points on 61% shooting in 29 minutes per game!