Ridiculously early look at the shape of the West

[Damkac]

If Clips and Rockets sucks I'm not complaining. Those are my 2 most hated west teams not named the Lakers

[bwgood77]

Rank in 3 ptrs made. http://stats.nba.com/league/team/?ls=iref:nba:gnav#!/?sort=FG3M&dir=1

Also look at 3 pt %.

[lilfishi22]

We're also #2 in rebounds per game. This is the best rebounding Suns team in 40 years.

[Mulhollanddrive]

If Houston doesn't make playoffs, there's not 8 other teams better than us.

Also they've only played 9 of 14 games at home already.

[Mulhollanddrive]

.500 has us in 5th seed, so it got me wondering about East v West.

Inter-Conference Games Won:
East 37
West 33

45 Wins looks set to be good enough for playoffs, all that takes is keeping just above .500 with a streak in there at some stage.

[bwgood77]

.500 has us in 5th seed, so it got me wondering about East v West.

Inter-Conference Games Won:
East 37
West 33

45 Wins looks set to be good enough for playoffs, all that takes is keeping just above .500 with a streak in there at some stage.

The BPI on espn, updates daily and has us projected to win 40 games and get the 8th seed. Houston is projected to finish 9th with only 36 wins. In the east, it has two teams tied for the 8th seed with 42 wins each (Charlotte and Washington).

TEAM WIN-LOSS PLAY-OFFS % NBA TITLE% DRAFT TOP 3%
GS 68-14 >99.9% 63.0% <0.1%
SA 58-24 >99.9% 12.2% <0.1%
CLE 57-25 >99.9% 11.3% <0.1%
OKC 54-28 >99.9% 5.1% <0.1%
TOR 52-30 99.2% 3.8% <0.1%
LAC 46-36 96.9% 0.4% 0.1%
CHI 48-34 93.9% 0.8% 0.1%
IND 48-34 93.6% 0.9% 0.1%
BOS 48-34 92.8% 1.2% 0.2%
UTH 43-39 89.8% <0.1% 0.5%
MIA 47-35 88.4% 0.6% 0.3%
DAL 42-40 85.1% <0.1% 0.8%
MEM 42-40 84.1% <0.1% 0.9%
ATL 46-36 83.9% 0.4% 0.4%
PHX 40-42 66.9% <0.1% 2.2%
CHA 42-40 47.4% <0.1% 1.7%
WSH 42-40 46.9% <0.1% 1.9%
DET 40-42 32.8% <0.1% 2.6%
HOU 36-46 27.3% <0.1% 8.1%
NO 35-47 21.1% <0.1% 10.5%
NY 38-44 15.3% <0.1% 4.9%
POR 34-48 11.8% <0.1% 14.1%
MIN 33-49 8.7% <0.1% 17.0%
SAC 32-50 5.7% <0.1% 19.3%
ORL 35-47 4.5% <0.1% 10.8%
DEN 31-51 2.8% <0.1% 23.9%
MIL 33-49 1.3% <0.1% 17.4%
BKN 25-57 <0.1% <0.1% 46.0%
LAL 22-60 <0.1% <0.1% 52.8%
PHI 15-67 <0.1% <0.1% 63.4%

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/BPI-Playoff-Odds/espn-nba-basketball-power-index-playoff-odds

Here is an explanation of the Basketball Power Index and what goes into the calculation, from Ben Alamar...

ESPN's NBA Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a forward-looking measure of team quality. It uses advanced statistical analysis to measure each team's offensive and defensive levels relative to an average team.

For example, a team that has an offensive rating of 3 and a defensive rating of -1 has a total BPI of 2. The team's offensive rating means that they would be projected to score three more points per 100 possessions against an average defense than an average offense, and their defensive rating of -1 means that they would give up one more point per 100 possessions than an average defense would against an average offense. The total BPI score of 2 means that they would be favored against an average team by two points.

The central input to BPI is the score of every game. These scores by themselves do not tell the entire story, however, so they are adjusted for a variety of factors:

Strength of Opponent: There is a difference between beating the Golden State Warriors and beating the Philadelphia 76ers. BPI factors in the strength of opponent played so that these two games are not treated the same in evaluating a team's ability.

Pace: BPI utilizes the final score as its starting point but then adjusts that score for the number of possessions played. A team that scores 100 points on 80 possessions is a more efficient offensive team than one that scores 100 points on 100 possessions against the same opponent. BPI adjusts the final score of each game for the pace of play so that results can be compared fairly.

Game location: BPI adjusts for home-court advantage.

Distance traveled: The home-court advantage tends to grow as the distance the visiting team has to travel to get there grows, so BPI adjusts for the distance traveled as well as home court.

Rest: Teams often face each other with different amounts of rest between games. Beating a team that is on the second half of a back-to-back is not as impressive as beating a team that has had three or four days to recover since their last game, so BPI adjusts for this as well.

Preseason expectations: Teams often are what we thought they were, so to avoid getting caught up in the natural streakiness of the NBA season, BPI incorporates preseason expectations, based on the Vegas expected win totals and the prior year's performance.

Along with BPI, the same factors as those listed above (site, distance, rest, etc.) can be used to calculate a team's average scoring margin and chances of winning in any given game. Each team's chance to win each remaining game on the schedule is used play out the entire NBA season 10,000 times. From those simulations, the chances of each team making the playoffs, advancing through various rounds of the postseason, finishing in certain parts of the draft order and other such projections can all be calculated.

Using all of these inputs helps make BPI one of the most accurate prediction models available: BPI favorites have won over 72 percent of NBA games. For a review of BPI's performance in 2014-15, see: So, how did BPI do with its projections?

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/13984129/what-espn-nba-basketball-power-index

[bwgood77]

Current playoff projections have us at 7 seed in one source, tied for 8 seed in another, and 10th in one. Between 37-39 wins.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/BPI-Playoff-Odds/espn-nba-basketball-power-index-playoff-odds

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/

[bwgood77]

Another interesting look. If you look at Sagarin's ratings, we rate 9 in the west, as usual.

Four west teams rank in the top 5 overall in rating, but after that, it is a BUNCH of east teams, and then 5 teams right together below that. Now two of them (Utah, Memphis) have played two of the toughest schedules, 2nd and 4th, respectively), but the next two (Dallas, Houston) have played the 20th and 29th toughest schedules, respectively. And now we've played the 10th toughest schedule.

It's crazy that Houston, as bad as they have been, have had one of the easiest schedules in the league. As bad as it has been looking for us, Houston's road will get a lot tougher, and our's, for the most part, should be much easier. Utah is also missing Gobert (I think).

If we somehow get our act together, it seems like we should at least pass Houston, but of course there is probably a better chance Houston does. Unfortunately we have lost twice to Dallas. It looks like Memphis and Utah, if healthy, will likely improve their records due to the schedule getting far easier. Who knows how Dallas and Houston will fare once their schedule gets tougher? If we were to pass them both we'd get to the 7 seed (assuming Portland doesn't stick around).

But if one of Memphis or Utah falls, which would be nice (if we have gotten up to the 7 seed), it seems like getting to 6 or 5 would give us a MUCH better chance in the first round.

Though of course if we continue to falter on our own, we may have to accept that small chance at Ben Simmons. But here are the ratings...

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/nba/sagarin/2016/rating/

Of course there are a BUNCH of teams in the 88-89 ratings...and you will see that New Orleans has played the toughest schedule in the league, the Kings the 8th, and the Blazers the 13th.

[Damkac]

Before the season if somebody would say Suns will be worse than Nuggets I would think he is mad

[Christine-In-AZ]

Before the season if somebody would say Suns will be worse than Nuggets I would think he is mad

I would have been one of the "mad" ones. (takes a bow)

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