ImageImageImage

The Draft Thread: Top Prospects

Moderators: bwgood77, Qwigglez, Kerrsed, batsmasher, lilfishi22

If we also traded up for #10 and Carter/SGA were available, would you prefer

Ayton/SGA
75
54%
Doncic/Carter
65
46%
 
Total votes: 140

User avatar
MrMiyagi
Suns Forum Eternal Optimist
Posts: 4,236
And1: 3,403
Joined: Jan 10, 2010
   

Re: The Draft Thread: Ayton Vs Doncic 2 

Post#1881 » by MrMiyagi » Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:52 pm

sunsbum wrote:
darealjuice wrote:That's kinda my whole problem with people filtering out late/long shots for Luka. Every single guard in college ball is forced to take a 30 footer at the end of the shot clock once in awhile too, and Luka has twice as many games to smooth out the effect of those attempts on his overall percentage, so why is he the only one that gets the "he shot tough shots" narrative and adjusted percentages? Is he not going to be taking those same shots in the NBA?
to combat this I have made a graph not taking into account any 3pt misses with aytons time at Arizona. Shockingly he's the best 3pt shooter in college.

I like that a knock on Ayton is "settling" for a mid-range jumper he makes 50% of the time. Such a weakness in his game. :noway:
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE REMEMBER THAT DRAGAN BENDER AND MARQUESE CHRISS ARE 18-YEAR-OLDS. DON'T TURN ON THEM AFTER A SEASON OR TWO.
Image
Props to Kerrsed
tria
Sophomore
Posts: 144
And1: 358
Joined: Feb 26, 2015
Location: Slovenia
 

Re: The Draft Thread: Ayton Vs Doncic 2 

Post#1882 » by tria » Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:55 pm

MrMiyagi wrote:
tria wrote:
darealjuice wrote:That's kinda my whole problem with people filtering out late/long shots for Luka. Every single guard in college ball is forced to take a 30 footer at the end of the shot clock once in awhile too, and Luka has twice as many games to smooth out the effect of those attempts on his overall percentage, so why is he the only one that gets the "he shot tough shots" narrative and adjusted percentages? Is he not going to be taking those same shots in the NBA?

Because he is shooting more half court shots than anyone i've ever seen. 17 in 31 games in EL.

Btw, just found Trae Young shot 33.8% from NBA distance.
Read on Twitter

So outside of 29.5 feet is a half court shot now? Not 47 feet?

TIL Damien Lillard shot 72 half court shots in 73 games in the NBA. http://bkref.com/tiny/q5v2i

Yes, you are right, i exaggerated and took this stat to full court and i'm wrong. My opinion for most half court shots still stands thou, but don't have the info for that.
User avatar
bwgood77
Global Mod
Global Mod
Posts: 43,976
And1: 21,552
Joined: Feb 06, 2009
Location: Austin
Contact:
   

Re: The Draft Thread: Top Prospects 

Post#1883 » by bwgood77 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:05 pm

darealjuice wrote:https://www.thestepien.com/shot-chart/

Shot charts for college players from the last 2 years are available on here with most game, it has their NBA 3-point% for the season. For example, Trae Young shot 35.59% with 84 makes on 236 attempts from NBA 3 outside of the 4 games that they're missing.


Yeah, that's one reason I think he took a lot of deep shots even though they are not considered good shots, are because of the space. That's why I think with more space, a further back line, etc, defenders spread out, other elite offensive options, these guys will shoot better.

As for taking out heaves, Ben Falk at Cleaning the Glass takes out all heaves when compiling his #s for his subscriber's analysis, but he hasn't looked at college. He has talked about how it is stupid to include them because they are pretty much irrelevant in real analysis and that it hurts a guy like Steph who doesn't care and throws up a lot of long prayers at the end of a shot clock but many players won't or will shoot it intentionally right after the buzzer to avoid it impacting their numbers. Trae has huge confidence so he likely threw up a bunch too.

Although I hate that people keep bringing it up as an excuse for Doncic they probably did have a bigger impact considering he doesn't take a ton of shots. He typically takes fewer than 10 shots a game, and maybe about half of them from 3. But he's the type of guy with the ball in his hands often that won't want to not try so he maybe threw up one end of qtr heave a game (out of his 5 3 pt attempts) on avg...that's a pure guess probably a bit on the high side. Now that may be on the high end, but if it's anywhere near 20% of your attempts that can have a pretty sizable impact. I you went 31 out of 100 but would have went 31 out of 80 that goes from like 31% to close to 39%. Now the % wasn't probably that high but it may not be that far off.

A guy like Trae, for example, shot almost 20 times a game with half his attempts from 3. If he also threw up one heave end of qtr, it would have amounted to more like 10% of his 3pt attempts, it would have half an impact, or a 4% difference.

It's probably closer to like 10% of attempts for Doncic and 5% for Trae, so it would shift %s more like 4% and 2%, or somewhere in between.

I use one end of qtr game as a starting point because I figure with four end of qtr possessions, each team on avg has two and maybe half of those times they don't have ideal time left on the shot clock to get a good shot or across court. It could be more or less...likely less, so then I cut in in half to get to once every two games, which is probably a bit low.

Edit...it looks like the poster above said 17 in 31 games so that sounds about right.
User avatar
Kerrsed
Senior Mod - Suns
Senior Mod - Suns
Posts: 25,409
And1: 10,042
Joined: Mar 31, 2009
Location: Land of the Internet Memes
Contact:
     

Re: The Draft Thread: Top Prospects 

Post#1884 » by Kerrsed » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:23 pm

Back at lunch, Ayton is looking at his phone when he says to no one in particular, "You saw Michael Porter Jr. say he was the best player in the draft?" A few seconds later, Ayton looks up to the rest of the table and tilts his head. "What draft is he in?"


:lol: :lol: :lol:
Its #BULLYSEASON!!! The A-TOWN BULLY ------- KERRSED - The Mod, The Myth, The Legend
Image
Fo-Real
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,434
And1: 1,337
Joined: Mar 21, 2009
     

Re: The Draft Thread: Ayton Vs Doncic 2 

Post#1885 » by Fo-Real » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:25 pm

darealjuice wrote:That's kinda my whole problem with people filtering out late/long shots for Luka. Every single guard in college ball is forced to take a 30 footer at the end of the shot clock once in awhile too, and Luka has twice as many games to smooth out the effect of those attempts on his overall percentage, so why is he the only one that gets the "he shot tough shots" narrative and adjusted percentages? Is he not going to be taking those same shots in the NBA?


(GREEN FONT!!!!) No, Luka will have more space and better shot selection in the nba with less zone (witch helps bigs not guards!!!!!). Never mind the fact that the level and skill of man on ball defender rises from Euro to NBA jump he hit big shots that mattered and those are the only ones that mattered.
darealjuice
Suns Forum Future All Star
Posts: 3,063
And1: 3,957
Joined: Apr 22, 2016
Location: Phoenix
   

Re: The Draft Thread: Top Prospects 

Post#1886 » by darealjuice » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:28 pm

bwgood77 wrote:Yeah, that's one reason I think he took a lot of deep shots even though they are not considered good shots, are because of the space. That's why I think with more space, a further back line, etc, defenders spread out, other elite offensive options, these guys will shoot better.

As for taking out heaves, Ben Falk at Cleaning the Glass takes out all heaves when compiling his #s for his subscriber's analysis, but he hasn't looked at college. He has talked about how it is stupid to include them because they are pretty much irrelevant in real analysis and that it hurts a guy like Steph who doesn't care and throws up a lot of long prayers at the end of a shot clock but many players won't or will shoot it intentionally right after the buzzer to avoid it impacting their numbers. Trae has huge confidence so he likely threw up a bunch too.

Although I hate that people keep bringing it up as an excuse for Doncic they probably did have a bigger impact considering he doesn't take a ton of shots. He typically takes fewer than 10 shots a game, and maybe about half of them from 3. But he's the type of guy with his ball in his hands often that won't want to not try so he maybe threw up one end of qtr heave a game on avg...that's a pure guess probably a bit on the high side. Now that may be on the high end, but if it's anywhere near 20% of your attempts that can have a pretty sizable impact. I you went 31 out of 100 but would have went 31 out of 80 that goes from like 31% to close to 39%. Now the % wasn't probably that high but it may not be that far off

A guy like Trae, for example, shot almost 20 times a game with half his attempts from 3. If he also threw up one heave end of qtr, it would have amounted to more like 10% of his 3pt attempts, it would have half an impact, or a 4% difference.

It's probably closer to like 10% of attempts for Doncic and 5% for Trae, so it would shift %s more like 4% and 2%, or somewhere in between.


I'm fine with not counting the half/full court heaves at the end of quarters. I agree that they muddle up stats, but I don't think Ben Falk is taking out the deep shots that come from the offense not creating anything better. I could be wrong though. I don't know the context of the 17 shots from 29.5+ feet that Luka shot in Euroleague, but I don't think it's right to assume they were all heaves either, especially when it's not done for every player.
Fo-Real
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,434
And1: 1,337
Joined: Mar 21, 2009
     

Re: The Draft Thread: Ayton Vs Doncic 2 

Post#1887 » by Fo-Real » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:30 pm

tria wrote:
darealjuice wrote:That's kinda my whole problem with people filtering out late/long shots for Luka. Every single guard in college ball is forced to take a 30 footer at the end of the shot clock once in awhile too, and Luka has twice as many games to smooth out the effect of those attempts on his overall percentage, so why is he the only one that gets the "he shot tough shots" narrative and adjusted percentages? Is he not going to be taking those same shots in the NBA?

Because he is shooting more half court shots than anyone i've ever seen. 17 in 31 games in EL.

Btw, just found Trae Young shot 33.8% from NBA distance.
Read on Twitter


(GREEN FONT) Trae had good reasons for that. The light bulbs in college are brighter and make it harder to see. The NBA is dimmer in the arena, so I predict he will shoot 43 percent. Go look at college games with dimmer arenas than others. :o :o
User avatar
Kerrsed
Senior Mod - Suns
Senior Mod - Suns
Posts: 25,409
And1: 10,042
Joined: Mar 31, 2009
Location: Land of the Internet Memes
Contact:
     

Re: The Draft Thread: Ayton Vs Doncic 2 

Post#1888 » by Kerrsed » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:31 pm

Saberestar wrote:
Read on Twitter


Great read.

And i'd like to point out to someone here, that even though he ordered 2 deserts, "He never came close to finishing wither one of them".
Its #BULLYSEASON!!! The A-TOWN BULLY ------- KERRSED - The Mod, The Myth, The Legend
Image
User avatar
bwgood77
Global Mod
Global Mod
Posts: 43,976
And1: 21,552
Joined: Feb 06, 2009
Location: Austin
Contact:
   

Re: The Draft Thread: Top Prospects 

Post#1889 » by bwgood77 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:32 pm

darealjuice wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:Yeah, that's one reason I think he took a lot of deep shots even though they are not considered good shots, are because of the space. That's why I think with more space, a further back line, etc, defenders spread out, other elite offensive options, these guys will shoot better.

As for taking out heaves, Ben Falk at Cleaning the Glass takes out all heaves when compiling his #s for his subscriber's analysis, but he hasn't looked at college. He has talked about how it is stupid to include them because they are pretty much irrelevant in real analysis and that it hurts a guy like Steph who doesn't care and throws up a lot of long prayers at the end of a shot clock but many players won't or will shoot it intentionally right after the buzzer to avoid it impacting their numbers. Trae has huge confidence so he likely threw up a bunch too.

Although I hate that people keep bringing it up as an excuse for Doncic they probably did have a bigger impact considering he doesn't take a ton of shots. He typically takes fewer than 10 shots a game, and maybe about half of them from 3. But he's the type of guy with his ball in his hands often that won't want to not try so he maybe threw up one end of qtr heave a game on avg...that's a pure guess probably a bit on the high side. Now that may be on the high end, but if it's anywhere near 20% of your attempts that can have a pretty sizable impact. I you went 31 out of 100 but would have went 31 out of 80 that goes from like 31% to close to 39%. Now the % wasn't probably that high but it may not be that far off

A guy like Trae, for example, shot almost 20 times a game with half his attempts from 3. If he also threw up one heave end of qtr, it would have amounted to more like 10% of his 3pt attempts, it would have half an impact, or a 4% difference.

It's probably closer to like 10% of attempts for Doncic and 5% for Trae, so it would shift %s more like 4% and 2%, or somewhere in between.


I'm fine with not counting the half/full court heaves at the end of quarters. I agree that they muddle up stats, but I don't think Ben Falk is taking out the deep shots that come from the offense not creating anything better. I could be wrong though. I don't know the context of the 17 shots from 29.5+ feet that Luka shot in Euroleague, but I don't think it's right to assume they were all heaves either, especially when it's not done for every player.


Yeah, he only throws out heaves..end of shot clock stuff. Some people may be including just some deep shots for Luka, though I don't know that he throws up really long shots often unless he has to because time has run out.
User avatar
Kerrsed
Senior Mod - Suns
Senior Mod - Suns
Posts: 25,409
And1: 10,042
Joined: Mar 31, 2009
Location: Land of the Internet Memes
Contact:
     

Re: The Draft Thread: Ayton Vs Doncic 2 

Post#1890 » by Kerrsed » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:36 pm

Fo-Real wrote:(GREEN FONT) Trae had good reasons for that. The light bulbs in college are brighter and make it harder to see. The NBA is dimmer in the arena, so I predict he will shoot 43 percent. Go look at college games with dimmer arenas than others. :o :o


You also have to take in effect the size of the arena and crowd size as well. A smaller more energetic college arena with a packed house so close to the court creates a ton of heat, heat that makes you sweat more, and in turn that sweat makes the ball just a bit more slippery.

In the NBA with bigger arenas and fans more relaxed and spread out (And constantly running AC), he wont have to worry as much about sweat affecting the grip/slippage of the ball during his shooting stroke, thus increasing his percentages by an extra 3.7%!

Spoiler:
:lol: :lol: :lol:
Its #BULLYSEASON!!! The A-TOWN BULLY ------- KERRSED - The Mod, The Myth, The Legend
Image
Fo-Real
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,434
And1: 1,337
Joined: Mar 21, 2009
     

Re: The Draft Thread: Ayton Vs Doncic 2 

Post#1891 » by Fo-Real » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:39 pm

Kerrsed wrote:
Fo-Real wrote:(GREEN FONT) Trae had good reasons for that. The light bulbs in college are brighter and make it harder to see. The NBA is dimmer in the arena, so I predict he will shoot 43 percent. Go look at college games with dimmer arenas than others. :o :o


You also have to take in effect the size of the arena and crowd size as well. A smaller more energetic college arena with a packed house so close to the court creates a ton of heat, heat that makes you sweat more, and in turn that sweat makes the ball just a bit more slippery.

In the NBA with bigger arenas and fans more relaxed and spread out (And constantly running AC), he wont have to worry as much about sweat affecting the grip/slippage of the ball during his shooting stroke, thus increasing his percentages by an extra 3.7%!

Spoiler:
:lol: :lol: :lol:


So yeah Kerrsed, can you get LegitSorce to confirm all that as true and new gospel. All true man no bull, all tested and on the level!! Really, dont bother to confirm it with anyone else people, ITS TRUE!! :o
User avatar
Kerrsed
Senior Mod - Suns
Senior Mod - Suns
Posts: 25,409
And1: 10,042
Joined: Mar 31, 2009
Location: Land of the Internet Memes
Contact:
     

Re: The Draft Thread: Top Prospects 

Post#1892 » by Kerrsed » Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:03 pm

Read on Twitter
Its #BULLYSEASON!!! The A-TOWN BULLY ------- KERRSED - The Mod, The Myth, The Legend
Image
darealjuice
Suns Forum Future All Star
Posts: 3,063
And1: 3,957
Joined: Apr 22, 2016
Location: Phoenix
   

Re: The Draft Thread: Top Prospects 

Post#1893 » by darealjuice » Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:15 pm

Very surprised that Real Madrid lost at home, this will be an interesting series for sure. Tough scoring at times for Luka, especially in the first half and from 3. They played a pretty physical team. His passing is great though, his pass half way through the first quarter was ridiculous.
User avatar
Kerrsed
Senior Mod - Suns
Senior Mod - Suns
Posts: 25,409
And1: 10,042
Joined: Mar 31, 2009
Location: Land of the Internet Memes
Contact:
     

Re: The Draft Thread: Ayton Vs Doncic 2 

Post#1894 » by Kerrsed » Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:31 pm

Fo-Real wrote:
Kerrsed wrote:
Fo-Real wrote:(GREEN FONT) Trae had good reasons for that. The light bulbs in college are brighter and make it harder to see. The NBA is dimmer in the arena, so I predict he will shoot 43 percent. Go look at college games with dimmer arenas than others. :o :o


You also have to take in effect the size of the arena and crowd size as well. A smaller more energetic college arena with a packed house so close to the court creates a ton of heat, heat that makes you sweat more, and in turn that sweat makes the ball just a bit more slippery.

In the NBA with bigger arenas and fans more relaxed and spread out (And constantly running AC), he wont have to worry as much about sweat affecting the grip/slippage of the ball during his shooting stroke, thus increasing his percentages by an extra 3.7%!

Spoiler:
:lol: :lol: :lol:


So yeah Kerrsed, can you get LegitSorce to confirm all that as true and new gospel. All true man no bull, all tested and on the level!! Really, dont bother to confirm it with anyone else people, ITS TRUE!! :o



Read on Twitter
Its #BULLYSEASON!!! The A-TOWN BULLY ------- KERRSED - The Mod, The Myth, The Legend
Image
User avatar
thamadkant
Suns Forum Picker of Cherries
Posts: 13,854
And1: 5,066
Joined: Jan 06, 2007
 

Re: The Draft Thread: Ayton Vs Doncic 2 

Post#1895 » by thamadkant » Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:40 pm

Kerrsed wrote:
Fo-Real wrote:
Kerrsed wrote:
You also have to take in effect the size of the arena and crowd size as well. A smaller more energetic college arena with a packed house so close to the court creates a ton of heat, heat that makes you sweat more, and in turn that sweat makes the ball just a bit more slippery.

In the NBA with bigger arenas and fans more relaxed and spread out (And constantly running AC), he wont have to worry as much about sweat affecting the grip/slippage of the ball during his shooting stroke, thus increasing his percentages by an extra 3.7%!

Spoiler:
:lol: :lol: :lol:


So yeah Kerrsed, can you get LegitSorce to confirm all that as true and new gospel. All true man no bull, all tested and on the level!! Really, dont bother to confirm it with anyone else people, ITS TRUE!! :o



Read on Twitter




Catering is better too!

The showers are top notch and the players have access to unlimited Gatorade!
User avatar
Kerrsed
Senior Mod - Suns
Senior Mod - Suns
Posts: 25,409
And1: 10,042
Joined: Mar 31, 2009
Location: Land of the Internet Memes
Contact:
     

Re: The Draft Thread: Ayton Vs Doncic 2 

Post#1896 » by Kerrsed » Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:42 pm

thamadkant wrote:Catering is better too!

The showers are top notch and the players have access to unlimited Gatorade!


He can only confirm so much in 280 characters.
Its #BULLYSEASON!!! The A-TOWN BULLY ------- KERRSED - The Mod, The Myth, The Legend
Image
User avatar
Kerrsed
Senior Mod - Suns
Senior Mod - Suns
Posts: 25,409
And1: 10,042
Joined: Mar 31, 2009
Location: Land of the Internet Memes
Contact:
     

Re: The Draft Thread: Top Prospects 

Post#1897 » by Kerrsed » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:06 pm

Anyone want to help me, im trying to find out info on Sarvers private plane. Looking for a tail number. If anyone could help me find it out, that would be SUPER.
Its #BULLYSEASON!!! The A-TOWN BULLY ------- KERRSED - The Mod, The Myth, The Legend
Image
User avatar
NTB
Suns Forum News Guru
Posts: 4,726
And1: 4,637
Joined: Dec 24, 2013
Contact:
   

Re: The Draft Thread: Top Prospects 

Post#1898 » by NTB » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:07 pm

Read on Twitter
carey wrote:It is 2-time, every time.
User avatar
bwgood77
Global Mod
Global Mod
Posts: 43,976
And1: 21,552
Joined: Feb 06, 2009
Location: Austin
Contact:
   

Re: The Draft Thread: Top Prospects 

Post#1899 » by bwgood77 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:11 pm

Kerrsed wrote:Anyone want to help me, im trying to find out info on Sarvers private plane. Looking for a tail number. If anyone could help me find it out, that would be SUPER.


I don't know if there is a number here. All I can see is a star..

Image
User avatar
Kerrsed
Senior Mod - Suns
Senior Mod - Suns
Posts: 25,409
And1: 10,042
Joined: Mar 31, 2009
Location: Land of the Internet Memes
Contact:
     

Re: The Draft Thread: Top Prospects 

Post#1900 » by Kerrsed » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:13 pm

bwgood77 wrote:
Kerrsed wrote:Anyone want to help me, im trying to find out info on Sarvers private plane. Looking for a tail number. If anyone could help me find it out, that would be SUPER.


I don't know if there is a number here. All I can see is a star..

Image


It would be a hell of a lot easier to track down if the FO went to Spain to visit Doncic if i had a tailnumber instead of checking flight destinations on everything thats moving on the screen in blue,

Image
Its #BULLYSEASON!!! The A-TOWN BULLY ------- KERRSED - The Mod, The Myth, The Legend
Image

Return to Phoenix Suns