bwgood77 wrote:ImNotMcDiSwear wrote:bwgood77 wrote:
I would bet Bridges would be more coveted than Ayton next summer. Not necessarily that people would pay him more than people would pay Ayton, but that every team could use a great 3 pt shooter who is a top tier defender, elite finisher and basically the perfect teammate with a crazy high bbiq.
There are a lot of good 3 pt shooters (though only 15-20 better than he was last year), and a alot of good defenders, though he ranked 11th in All NBA defense in his 3rd year in the NBA (VERY RARE).
I imagine he will also be doing more creating of his own shot. I didn't mention he is a great passer who very rarely turns it over. He doesn't get to ball handle much but has had 8 assists in a game and sometimes is one of the better guys at getting it to Ayton, etc.
A lot of teams have Centers though. Ayton right now is a solid 1 on 1 defender and a much improving help defender and a finisher who has a few moves offensively, rebounds, screens and contests shots.
A lot of C's do all those things. The main thing he is better at than most...maybe top tier is switching and guarding smaller guys on the perimeter, but a lot of people also think he gets burned too much when this happens and that he isn't great at it (I disagree...he does get burned by crafty quick guards but holds his own against most).
Anyway, tons of teams have very good to great or at least adequate Cs for today's game. Not many teams have a top tier wing defender who can guard the opposition's best player every night as well as be efficient enough while taking the most high quality shots that he had a near 67% TS%. I doubt there are more than a couple of non Cs with a TS% higher.
You might be right. I do find it puzzling that you consider it a mark against Ayton that "most teams have Cs" and " at least adequate Cs" when obviously most teams have at least adequate small forwards as well. You can't exactly slot him in at the 2 due to his lack of ballhandling, though you think he has more in his bag than we've seen. If you were right about that, I wouldn't disagree with you, I don't think. You say Bridges is "elite" in several respects, but Ayton is an elite rebounder and post defender. He is also, like Bridges, a great passer who rarely turns it over - but that's in large part because of the way this team is coached.
I also think it's a little disingenuous to say that Bridges guards the opposing team's top player every night. He can't guard Lebron, and Paul George roasted him in the WCF. The common denominator there is size. He's not one of those super-rare defenders who can guard every position. He can't guard the 4, and I don't recall him guarding traditional point guards last season, either. Among young defenders, I think Thybulle and Dort are better, and Brown and OG are right there with him.
And on the flipside, I think that in a one-on-one, Ayton bests every center in the league other than Embiid, Gobert and Towns. Last year he finally got to the level where he played Gobert essentially even, and with Towns - he wrecks him on both ends one game, then the other, Towns goes off from deep and destroys Ayton: hard to categorize that as a win or a loss. Embiid is the only center who bests him consistently.
Where I come down hard on this question is positional rankings. I think Ayton is, overall, a top-5 center in the league, behind Jokic and Embiid, and jostling for position with Gobert and Towns, ahead of Adebayo (though that is apparently a minority opinion). Is Bridges a top-5 small forward? Obviously not. Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Doncic, Kawhi and Middleton are all very clearly ahead, and then arguably Butler, George, Ingram, Barnes and Anunoby are better as well (I feel I'm being generous in consideration of the advanced stats you are sure to be relying on as a counterpoint). There are also plenty of other young players who could leapfrog him in the near future like Barrett, Hunter, Cam Johnson, Keldon Johnson, maybe even Desmond Bane or Jonathan Isaac if he ever gets healthy. FWIW, I have him solidly ahead of Derozan, as well as Hayward, Warren (obviously, injuries), Ingles, Bojan, Barton and Saddiq Bey, but on any given night, those guys could match or exceed Bridges' impact.
Guys that fit Bridges' profile show up in every draft, though not all of them pan out. Guys that fit Ayton's profile are once every several years (Wiseman was the last, and he's not looked great so far). My point here is that Bridges might not be easily, fully replaceable, but it's not *that* hard to get close.
All that said, I'd still pay Bridges what it takes to keep him around, unless he's asking for the max or near-max as well. My principal concern when it comes to payroll is having to choose between Bridges and Cam Johnson, since I think Cam's ceiling is higher. But at the end of the day, you pay to keep this team together, because it takes money to win in this league. You go big or go home.
While I like to think Ayton is a top 5 C, I think that' a biased look at this point. On the GB (and it's not just the Suns, but every team thinks the GB hates them and underrates their players), he ranked around 10th on avg.
Do you really think he is already on the level of Towns and Gobert for overall impact? Most rank Adebayo ahead. Then you have guys like Sabonis who was an all star an elite at many things..different things, but elite.. Vucevic is very versatile. Capela is very similar to Ayton in many ways but a better rebounder.
I do think he is in the 5-8 range, and firmly will be in the top 6 or 7...and maybe top 5. If he adds to his offensive game like I hope and kind of expect, I would say he would be higher but it just depends on what you need. None will be as good as a rim deterrent as Gobert. Not as good of a #1 option as Embiid, Jokic or Towns on offense. Not nearly the passer that Bam, Jokic, Sabonis and probably Towns are. And then Vucevic is good at passing, 3 pt shooting, rebounding and scoring.
Then you never know where guys like Mobley, Wiseman (who I recall you saying you thought was already better than Ayton, though premature and before Ayton playoffs, but he should take a big step I imagine), Mobley, and I know you are extremely high on Okongwu.
As for Bridges, again, it all comes down to need, and your first list is clearly better, though you are including guys who play SG and PF. Then your second list, I don't agree with anyone but Butler, Ingram and certainly not Barnes.
I don't think any of that last list is even close. You must be very low on Bridges if you think that list and Barnes are better. OG I can say MAYBE is equal and has a little more versatility guarding bigger players.
But Bridges has an 18 net rtg while OG has a 1. Bridges has triple the BPM and VORP, a lot higher WS/48, etc.
Bridges game impact is just underrated and too many people look at PPG.
As for Bridges guarding the best player, I mean within his positional range...1 through small 4s. And of the superstars, no one stops them but he bothers them. He doesn't get picked by coaches/media as 11th in All NBA if he's not respected. It's not like he has a big name that carries him.
I made one comment about one game by Wiseman when I was mad at Ayton and WIseman came out hitting threes right out the gate. I was just emotional for a hot minute, and I think I've been pretty consistently supportive of maxing out Ayton since, like, game 20 last season.
I was high on Okungwu pre-draft, pre-injury and still really like him, but I never would have categorized him with Ayton. His ceiling is lower, flat-out.
I could see liking Sabonis more than Ayton, but Vucevic? No way. I'm not even gonna argue it. Capela is also arguable and not that far back, but he's not as versatile and has hit his ceiling for sure.
What makes Ayton stands out is that he gives you everything you want out of a center except 3 point range. IMO, the only other player who meets that criteria is Embiid - who also has the 3, and is better in essentially all respects except durability, though I would dock him a few points for being an unwatchable flopping mess on offense.
When you say I was including guys who play SG and PF - MOST threes can play one of those other positions. Bridges does not guard 4s, and he can't play the 2 on offense. He's a pure 3, which is rare. I think most people who categorize all the players I listed as small forward, I guess except Butler, maybe Jerami Grant. But again, I think that has more to do with their offensive versatility, which I think Bridges lacks and you don't. At this point, the burden is on Bridges to show that versatility, because he has yet to. (That's why there are stories talking about him adding it!)
Good stats re Anunoby v Bridges. That's quite the discrepancy and puts Bridges clearly ahead. I have Bridges ahead of Barnes, but fwiw, Kings fans would disagree, and I don't think it's an absurd position. What might be absurd is MY position that Bridges > George and Butler, which I hold because Butler sometimes kills you on offense, and George sometimes kills you on both ends - though on other nights, he can carry your offense.
All told, if you look at the list of guys we're comparing him with, it's pretty clear he needs to receive $20 million/year or more. Anything less is an insult. I guess that means you win, since I hadn't reached that conclusion previously.
But if you think Bridges is more valuable than Ayton, I think you're just flat-out wrong and I guess I'll end my piece of this discussion with that. Thanks so much for the thorough, informed and reasonable debate!
