The Official Draft Thread 2: Judgement Day

[lilfishi22]

Damn. Im hearing Chicago might be making a play for that #8 pick. Deng/#29 to Toronto for Calderon/#8. Bulls would then be looking at a 2 guard with that pick. They also get out of Dengs deal, while picking up a short term solution for PG while Rose is out. Toronto gets that impact SF that they have been rumored to be looking for, while also improving the team enough to try to score Nash as a FA.

Im guessing Chicago would then be targeting Lamb with the #8 pick. They need a long and defensive 2 guard to put next to Rose. One that doesnt need the ball in his hands to score.

Wasn't Toronto looking to move Derozen to his natural position at the 3?

[JMac1]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMFTEiej0mY&feature=related[/youtube]

And this is just something Rivers could never ever do

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1efPt-anOFI

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8w28_IozEOg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBtN8HZyzTQ

Can I get an in game college dunk? Practices and game were guys move to the side is not comparable!! Thus, I saw not one finishing dunk on his college "highlights." NONE! He looked like a midget when he went to the rack. Once it looked like he was going to dunk, and he appeared to almost break his ankles! Did you not see how many easy finishing dunks Lamb had IN his highlights? Rivers can dunk, but not finish at the rim!!

[JMac1]

I dont like Rivers... but I think he will do a lot better in the NBA than he did at Duke based on the fact that he is really good at 1on1 driving and is lightening quick. In college, the floor isn't spaced as good because the 3 point line is closer. Plus, there is no illegal defense, so they just pack it in. There are certain guys that excel in the NBA and not college because it fits their style better (Westbrook, Rondo, etc). Not saying Rivers will be as good as those guys... just saying that I think taking him wouldn't be such a bad thing.

Good point. Vey well said!!

I am still the person who believes his lying eyes tho My mom was born in Missouri (seriously), I go with the people who have shown me. But the above post makes a helluva lot of sense....eww, love those points; that alone, got me back on the bandwagon!

Not going to argue the marketing standpoint of Rivers, that is the biggest want I want from him.

If he can be KJ (killer PG) than hell yea, but he is a shooting guard. How many shooting guards his size dominates games? And I am very worried about his defense.

Well you are going to have to move up to get him. There are teams who want him for the hype as well.... NEW ORLEANS more than any. Rivers and Davis?!

[JMac1]

What do you guys think of Evan Fournier? Looks to me like his ceiling can be up there with Ginobili....

Euro scouts say that he would be a lottery pick if he had played vs Beal, Rivers etc.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HqfjKMX5_0M

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20qLJFoa5aI

If Lillard or PJII drop to #13 and we're able to acquire another pick in the 1st round, I wouldn't mind picking one of them and then drafting this kid with the other pick as our future SG.

He's a SG at 6'7, 205 lb, and he's barely 19. Worth the risk imo.

I heard he awed in one of his workouts, but even I can see the guy has no left hand

[JMac1]

The fact that we havent worked out any SG's has me believing more and more that we already gave a promise to one (Rivers or Waiters). Why would we work them out if we already gave a promise to one?

We then throw up a PF semi-smoke screen. Work out about 4 early 1st round PF's and 4 late 1st round PF's. We are looking for some size and are most likely getting a real good look at what we can secure with a mid to late 1st. Having them workout with the higher rated guys shows what they are really made of and what makes them stand out. It also makes teams around the league think that we just might go with a big at #13,

The #13 pick has already been promised to Rivers or Waiters, now we are looking at what we can secure with an added pick. Thats what i see currently playing out.

The one question i do have is why is Lillard coming here? There is no way that he falls to us. NO WAY! Could the Suns be interested in him to a point where they make a draft day trade and try to scoop up one of the many lotto picks available? I mean, every team that has shown interest in Lillard are all teams that are also looking at moving their pick. Portland/Toronto/New Orleans couldnt draft him if say we trade for the #8 pick. But like i said, thats only if they are enamored with him.

Is Waiters working out for anyone? I know Rivers is....To me that says Waiters is a done deal and we are working out others (Lillard) in case Waiters gets picked before we have a chance. These others are guys we are considering for the 13th pick!! I just don't believe we will get an extra pick in the 1st....No balls, guts, and just too damn tight with the money

[Gorilla Warfare]

Royce White...

I havent seen a big man with such great passing and dribbling skills like White's for a long time.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdYRh5oEJ4U&[/youtube]

Boris Diaw, is that you?

[sunskerr]

Dion Waiters is Orange. Suddenly it all makes sense.

[JMac1]

http://valleyofthesuns.com/2012/06/17/s ... -prospect/


I don't think he will be there at 13. I bet you Toronto made the promise, because there is no way he would settle for going at 13, no way!! The dude is a complete player.

Rivers, Lamb, and Lillard is going between the Hornets, Blazers, and Suns.... With Lillard drawing Rose-lite comparisons, he goes to Portland @ Six, because Drmmond is off of the board and the three SG's at that point will be a super reach, especially when there is no clear consensus on who is the best player.

So NO is the team that will pick either Lamb or Rivers.... I don't think Rivers and Gordon go together so.......Does Gordon make them go Lamb?

Stay tuned.

I think the Suns might trade up to get their ball handling combo (Waiters or Rivers) and pick up an extra for a big. I don't think they sit back and watch both Rivers and Waiters go off the board and settle for a big?!

Should have tanked a few more games, NO is going to kill us

[rsavaj]

I really don't see a big difference in career trajectories between Ross, Rivers, and Waiters.

I'm fine withe either one of the three, and I've stopped stressing myself out about the next 10 days.

[JMac1]

I really don't see a big difference in career trajectories between Ross, Rivers, and Waiters.

I'm fine withe either one of the three, and I've stopped stressing myself out about the next 10 days.

You are correct sir.

In Ringo's voice "I'm trying real hard."

[bwgood77]

I really don't see a big difference in career trajectories between Ross, Rivers, and Waiters.

I'm fine withe either one of the three, and I've stopped stressing myself out about the next 10 days.

You are correct sir.

In Ringo's voice "I'm trying real hard."

Wouldn't that be Jules voice? "I'm trying REAL hard, to be the shepherd."

[Sun Scorched]

Here are my NBA comparisons

Rivers = Short Kevin Martin with an Attitude
Waiters = Poor Man's Dwyane Wade
Lamb = Disinterested Nick Young
Ross = Poor Man's Andre Igoudala

[sunster]

Here are my NBA comparisons

Rivers = Short Kevin Martin with an Attitude
Waiters = Poor Man's Dwyane Wade
Lamb = Disinterested Nick Young
Ross = Poor Man's Andre Igoudala

Mostly agree, but Ross is not like Iggy, he doesn't have the playmaking ability. He is more like a Nick Young with rebounding. Also, Ross is a jump shooter first and foremost, Iggy isn't.

Also, Lamb = disinterested Nick Young? Isn't Young disinterested enough? Heh.

[Ryu]

Ross reminds me of Latrell Sprewell a little bit and I liked Spree back in the days when he was playing for the Knicks.

[bwgood77]

Hollinger released his draft rater numbers today....he projects PER based on college stats (so it obviously isn't an exact science, and is more of a projection for how well they will do offensively as opposed to defensively)...I'll quote the parts that talk about wings...

That's right: It's Draft Rater time. I've developed a tool that analyzes college stats to predict NBA performance and have refined it over the past several years. It's something we can use to help identify draft steals and busts.

To review, last season was a pretty good one for the Rater. The 2011 pick with the top chance of success (Kyrie Irving) won Rookie of the Year, three other players it rated highly (Kawhi Leonard, Jon Leuer and Nikola Vucevic) provided great value for their draft position, and long-time favorite Daniel Green emerged as a starter on the West's best regular-season team......

....As I noted with Leonard a year ago, wing players -- especially bigger ones -- with strong Draft Rater marks virtually never fail. Of the eight players to rate above 13 in the past decade, the worst among them was Josh Childress. Five of the players have played in an All-Star Game, and Rudy Gay may play in an All-Star Game soon. The seventh player is Leonard.

This year, we have two names to add to that list: Dion Waiters and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Kidd-Gilchrist is probably the safest pick on the board -- a big wing who plays defense, has strong stats and comes with no character questions. From a risk-aversion perspective alone he should be a top-five pick; I have him third on my board after Robinson. (See below for how I would rank the prospects, regardless of their Draft Rater numbers.)

I have Waiters fourth for similar reasons. His size, 6-foot-4, is more of a concern, but whatever team made him a promise did a wise thing. Waiters projects as the best small wing since Dwyane Wade, and he'd be a steal if somebody got him in the Nos. 8-10 range currently being discussed.

Potential perimeter busts
One player that Draft Rater isn't crazy about is Damian Lillard of Weber State, who compiled strong numbers but did so against a weak schedule and is much older than most of the prospects at his position. He not only failed to outrank the top point guards above but also rates behind the less-heralded Tyshawn Taylor of Kansas. No. 6 clearly seems a stretch for Lillard, who looks more like a mid-to-late first-rounder in this analysis.

On the wings, a few potential first-rounders also fare poorly. Moe Harkless of St. John's had one of the worst ratings of any first-round prospect. While the error rate on one-and-done players has been higher, the difference between Harkless and the other lottery candidates is well outside the standard error of the Rater.

In addition to Harkless, first-round prospects John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor of Vanderbilt fared poorly. Another first-round prospect from overseas, Evan Fournier of France, didn't play in the Euroleague this year and thus has no projection. Subjectively, I'm not sold on him -- he's basically a slashing scorer who isn't athletic enough to score that way in the NBA -- but he at least has the benefit of being only 19.

One player gathering momentum is Kostas Papanikolaou of Greece, who shapes up as a solid second-round stash pick. Two other wing prospects -- Austin Rivers and Terrence Ross -- shape up about where we'd expect as mid-to-late first rounders, but after those two, the pool thins out quickly.

A final sleeper to watch is Maryland point guard Terrell Stoglin, another guy who would make a great second-rounder.

Perimeter Players: The Best
Name College/Country Rating
Dion Waiters Syracuse 14.12
Kendall Marshall North Carolina 13.84
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Kentucky 13.58
Marquis Teague Kentucky 13.18
Quincy Miller Baylor 12.94
Tony Wroten Washington 12.21
Bradley Beal Florida 11.65
Kostas Sloukas Greece 11.51
Harrison Barnes North Carolina 11.11
Will Barton Memphis 10.90
Doron Lamb Kentucky 10.65
Jeremy Lamb Connecticut 10.50

Perimeter Players: The Rest
Name College/Country Rating
Tyshawn Taylor Kansas 10.19
Austin Rivers Duke 9.85
Terrell Stoglin Maryland 9.82
Damian Lillard Weber State 9.75
Kostas Papanikolaou Greece 9.26
Terrence Ross Washington 9.12
Elias Harris Gonzaga 8.64
William Buford Ohio State 8.58
J'Covan Brown Texas 8.49
Jordan Taylor Wisconsin 8.19
Reggie Hamilton Oakland 8.18
Maalik Wayns Villanova 8.02
Hollis Thompson Georgetown 8.01
Tony Mitchell Alabama 7.91
Jae Crowder Marquette 7.90
Jared Cunningham Oregon State 7.76
John Jenkins Vanderbilt 7.76
Khris Middleton Texas A&M 7.68
Scott Machado Iona 7.57
Tornike Shengelia Republic of Georgia 7.33
Moe Harkless St. John's 7.15
Tu Holloway Xavier 7.14
Orlando Johnson UC Santa Barbara 7.11
Darius Miller Kentucky 6.65
Jeffery Taylor Vanderbilt 6.59

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft201 ... raft-rater

7. Making my board
Knowing everything we know, here is how my board looks heading into draft day. This is taking into account everything from the Draft Rater as well as what we know about the players' red flags, defensive pluses and minuses and one or two subjective calls:

1. Anthony Davis
2. Thomas Robinson
3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
4. Dion Waiters
5. Andre Drummond


6. Quincy Miller
7. Jared Sullinger
8. Terrence Jones
9. John Henson
10. Royce White


11. Bradley Beal
12. Harrison Barnes
13. Tony Wroten
14. Kendall Marshall
15. Marquis Teague


16. Draymond Green
17. Jeremy Lamb
18. Damian Lillard
19. Austin Rivers
20. Doron Lamb


21. Furkan Aldemir
22. Will Barton
23. Tyler Zeller
24. Evan Fournier
25. Tyshawn Taylor


26. Meyers Leonard
27. Terrence Ross
28. Perry Jones
29. Festus Ezeli
30. Fab Melo


31. Kostas Sloukas
32. Henry Sims
33. Terrell Stoglin
34. Kostas Papanikolaou
35. Moe Harkless


36. Leon Radosevic
37. JaMychal Green
38. Andrew Nicholson
39. Drew Gordon
40. Garrett Stutz


41. Robert Sacre
42. Arnett Moultrie
43. Elias Harris
44. William Buford
45. Jae Crowder


46. Jared Cunningham
47. Jordan Taylor
48. John Jenkins
49. Orlando Johnson
50. Jeffrey Taylor


51. Quincy Acy
52. Maalik Wayns
53. Tornike Shengelia
54. Scott Machado
55. Mike Scott


56. J'Covan Brown
57. Reggie Hamilton
58. Khris Middleton
59. Tony Mitchell
60. Miles Plumlee

[Saberestar]

Very interesting. Thanks.
My only concern about Waiters is his form shooting the ball, he needs too much time to shoot, I think he has a poor mechanic.
Well....his size is a problem too.

[Avp115]

Damn. Im hearing Chicago might be making a play for that #8 pick. Deng/#29 to Toronto for Calderon/#8. Bulls would then be looking at a 2 guard with that pick. They also get out of Dengs deal, while picking up a short term solution for PG while Rose is out. Toronto gets that impact SF that they have been rumored to be looking for, while also improving the team enough to try to score Nash as a FA.

Im guessing Chicago would then be targeting Lamb with the #8 pick. They need a long and defensive 2 guard to put next to Rose. One that doesnt need the ball in his hands to score.

Generally speaking it's impossible to score without the ball in your hands. I understand what you're trying to say there, but it's still pretty funny.

[bwgood77]

Very interesting. Thanks.
My only concern about Waiters is his form shooting the ball, he needs too much time to shoot, I think he has a poor mechanic.
Well....his size is a problem too.

The more I learn about Waiters, the more I like him and hope we end up with him. Problem is, I still have a feeling Portland gave him a promise, so I don't think he'll be there. I hope I'm wrong though, even though I also like Ross.

Another thing I read today (I think on VotS) is that Boeheim said that Waiters was as talented as anyone he has ever coached, and that's saying quite a bit, as he has been coaching awhile, and Melo is obviously someone he coached.

[jredsaz]

Very interesting. Thanks.
My only concern about Waiters is his form shooting the ball, he needs too much time to shoot, I think he has a poor mechanic.
Well....his size is a problem too.

Yeah, but if he is 4 on this list I don't see him going lower than 8 to Toronto. More and more teams are using this kind of cybermetrics based projecting to acquire talent. Moneyball had a huge impact on sports, not just baseball.

[lilfishi22]

Very interesting. Thanks.
My only concern about Waiters is his form shooting the ball, he needs too much time to shoot, I think he has a poor mechanic.
Well....his size is a problem too.

Wasn't a problem in college and I doubt a scorer would have problems putting the ball up, no matter what level of competition they play against.

His size is the biggest issue. Had he been one or two inches taller, he'd be classified as a straight SG and be ranked much higher and not have to worry being able to play the PG.