The Official 2024 Offseason Thread Part 2

[Ghost of Kleine]

I shoot around 50% from FT like Dunn, maybe I just need a nice video to make the team.

Ryan Dunn just attempted 99 FTs in college, that's an small sample size.

Yeah, he just improved from 50 (freshman) to 53.2 (sophomore) but watching his release form and knowing that he is hard worker I seriously doubt that he will not score over 60% of his FTs already in Summer League.

So I hear a lot of talk about his form looking good.

So does this mean when he shot really poorly in college his form was terrible?

Because yes, if his form was terrible and now it's good that is very good news.

If his form was good and he shot that poorly, well, not sure what continuing to have good form would mean, if anything, other than the fact that I guess it's good that it's not poor form.

You should read the breakdown on Dunn by kellan Olson in the link from the tweet that I posted above :
https://arizonasports.com/story/3550024/ryan-dunn-oso-ighodaro-maximized-suns/

It speaks to the context of his opportunities at Virginia a bit man:

Dunn’s Cavaliers under head coach Tony Bennett have been known for years now as a plodding offensive team, lucky to reach a point total in the 70s or 80s, an intentional effort to control pace. In KenPom’s adjusted tempo, which calculates the amount of possessions a team has per game, Virginia ranked dead last in the country. That is 362nd out of 362 teams.

Dunn is a hyper-athletic wing with an explosive physical profile best utilized in transition and with as much space as possible. Considering he’s a limited offensive player at this time as well, it’s even more important for him to get chances on the run. That was of no interest to Virginia.

I talked about this contextually as to how the very low pace low posessions seriously limited his overall opportunities/ posessions towards development in my back and forth discusions with Fishi. Dunn only played 11-13 minutes in his freshman season, and his opportunities in his role severely restricted his opportunities for on court improvements due to very low possessions and very limited opportunities overall.

My point being that Dunns' role was again limited to Bennett's strategy of using him exclusively as a play finisher, rebounder, and dunkers' spot lob threat. And overall, a defensive specialist for them because Bennett himself stated that was exclusively his role because they were undersized and unathletic.

So with increased opportunity, Dunn should get more reps to actually improve in live game scenarios whether in the G league or in garbage time initially? The mental aspects should improve as he gets opportunities and makes some shots to build confidence.

[Fo-Real]

Is Jalen Bridges a DAWG?!?! Seems fluid! Seems like he is a Okogie replacement WHO CAN SHOOT AND....... DGAF!!!

[Ghost of Kleine]

Tyler ruckes' No Ceilings- Ryan Dunn agent of Chaos was a very good article that showed:

https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/ryan-dunn-agent-of-chaos

2023-24 (as of 11/23/23):

10.3 PTS | 7.0 REB | 1.0 AST | 2.8 STL | 2.5 BLK

54.1 FG% | 15.4 3P% | 69.0 FT%

6.2 FGA | 2.2 3PA | 4.8 FTA

6 Games | 6 Starts | 25.8 MIN

That with increased minutes and actual increased playing time in a starter's role, Dunn actually shot close to 70% from the free throw line on 4.8 attempts. Also his 54.1 FG% is above the average too. So I think it's a good indicator of opportunity fostering confidence and progression.

[garrick]

There isnt a chance that Beal comes off the bench. I also don't want Allen as a starter.

Yeah, I don't understand people listing lineups that are unlikely to happen.

I think it might make sense to have Beal come off the bench if we had an actual PG. But Book shouldn't be full time ball handler either, and Monte isn't good enough to start on a team that wants to contend.

We need to maximize the big 3's minutes too...which, means, start them to give them more times of rest.

Beal can rest early, and he usually does anyway....and Royce can come in. Then maybe Beal and Monte play together to start the 2nd when Book sits, especially since they played together in Washington.

And isn't Allen supposed to start? I don't really care if it's him or O'Neale, but it seems it would be him since we pay him more and he played so well and got so hot so often.

Allen is too small and he's not an elite defender nor a good rebounder so I think if Beal isn't coming off the bench it should be Allen.

We got killed on the boards last season so I think Bud might want to cut down on the small ball lineups as much as possible.

[garrick]

1. OKC
2. Minnesota
3. Denver
4. New Orleans
5. Dallas
6. Phoenix
7. Sacramento
8. Memphis
9. GSW
10. Lakers
11. Clippers
12. Houston
13. Spurs
14. Utah
15. Portland

I'm just curious how is Denver ranked so high still after losing KCP and even Reggie Jackson. Both of those guys combined for 53-54 minutes a game, veteran guys with experience. I have no clue what is going on with the Nuggets, but I assume they maybe start Christian Braun going into his third season at SG.

I could see us being anywhere between #6 and #14 on this list. I'd bet on Memphis finishing ahead of us, along with the 5 teams you have listed. HOU, SAS and UTA could surprise.

I'd put money on this team being play-in or worse. Pretty sure we finish ahead of Portland, fwiw... which is what, $300 million?

YIKES

I see us hanging around from 7-11 most of the season.

Memphis is getting Ja back and Houston is on the rise and none of the top 5 teams got significantly worse either.

[Revived]

Ryan Dunn just attempted 99 FTs in college, that's an small sample size.

Yeah, he just improved from 50 (freshman) to 53.2 (sophomore) but watching his release form and knowing that he is hard worker I seriously doubt that he will not score over 60% of his FTs already in Summer League.

So I hear a lot of talk about his form looking good.

So does this mean when he shot really poorly in college his form was terrible?

Because yes, if his form was terrible and now it's good that is very good news.

If his form was good and he shot that poorly, well, not sure what continuing to have good form would mean, if anything, other than the fact that I guess it's good that it's not poor form.

You should read the breakdown on Dunn by kellan Olson in the link from the tweet that I posted above :
https://arizonasports.com/story/3550024/ryan-dunn-oso-ighodaro-maximized-suns/

It speaks to the context of his opportunities at Virginia a bit man:

Dunn’s Cavaliers under head coach Tony Bennett have been known for years now as a plodding offensive team, lucky to reach a point total in the 70s or 80s, an intentional effort to control pace. In KenPom’s adjusted tempo, which calculates the amount of possessions a team has per game, Virginia ranked dead last in the country. That is 362nd out of 362 teams.

Dunn is a hyper-athletic wing with an explosive physical profile best utilized in transition and with as much space as possible. Considering he’s a limited offensive player at this time as well, it’s even more important for him to get chances on the run. That was of no interest to Virginia.

I talked about this contextually as to how the very low pace low posessions seriously limited his overall opportunities/ posessions towards development in my back and forth discusions with Fishi. Dunn only played 11-13 minutes in his freshman season, and his opportunities in his role severely restricted his opportunities for on court improvements due to very low possessions and very limited opportunities overall.

My point being that Dunns' role was again limited to Bennett's strategy of using him exclusively as a play finisher, rebounder, and dunkers' spot lob threat. And overall, a defensive specialist for them because Bennett himself stated that was exclusively his role because they were undersized and unathletic.

So with increased opportunity, Dunn should get more reps to actually improve in live game scenarios whether in the G league or in garbage time initially? The mental aspects should improve as he gets opportunities and makes some shots to build confidence.

I trust your draft knowledge more than James Jones. Not a super flattering compliment but still.

You know ball. I’m curious, if you were GM, are you taking Dunn in the first round? If not, who are you taking?

Sorry if you’ve already answered or posted this before in some other thread. You can link that to me instead if it’s any easier.

[Revived]

Is Jalen Bridges a DAWG?!?! Seems fluid! Seems like he is a Okogie replacement WHO CAN SHOOT AND....... DGAF!!!

He’s a Bridges in a Suns jersey, of course he’s a mfing dawg. We know this.

[lilfishi22]

It's good he is shooting well in the gym though. I wonder if he used to shoot well in the gym (when not in a game) or if this is a new thing.

Most NBA pros can shot 70% in the gym without any defense.

Every offseason we're blessed with offseason workout videos from certain players working on certain skills but when the bright lights are on the following season, they either shy away from what they were working on or it just doesn't look improved. I mean, I've also seen videos of strictly non-shooting C in the offseason just straight up draining 3 balls in an empty gym and that just goes to show how skilled NBA players are but that doesn't mean they are a shooter in actual games.



Not saying Dunn is like that necessarily but I don't think a good shooting offseason videos in an empty gym gives you much idea whether it would actually work in the NBA or not. THe good thing about Dunn is that his shot doesn't look broke, he doesn't have the yips, he just needs to get reps in and get a regular shooting routine in because the key critique of his shot is that his form is inconsistent. His base is always different, this shooting form is inconsistent and you can't be a good shooter if you have different shooting form even when taking the same shot from the same position on the court.

[lilfishi22]

Bringing Okogie back would be idiotic. We have enough defenders that can’t shoot the 3 already.

Did James Jones not watch the Suns offense become stagnant because teams kept doubling off Okogie since his jump shot is about as good as mine?

Listening to Kellan on Empire of the Sun, he thinks it's because Okogie is more reliable than both Roddy and Little in terms of what you expect him to do, he'll do. If he was resigned, he'd basically be ahead of both of them on the depth chart. Which I'm fine with.

I think Roddy will likely get cut when someone worth picking up is available since he's essentially on a minimum deal. Little would be harder to move on from.

[lilfishi22]

He's already working on things man!

Read on Twitter

He's not missing much if any shots in this clip and his mechanics and form look pretty clean too! I keep telling people his shot is gonna improve.

These are literally highlights. They aren't showing misses because that would go against the point of HIGHlights.

You want to see uncut footage of shooting drills like this to really see where his shooting is. 5min of straight footage, no cuts, no highlights. Even then, all you would be seeing is improvement in the consistency of his shot which doesn't always translate to real world shooting success either.

Watch on YouTube

[WeekapaugGroove]

51 and 46.... Those were the win totals of seeds 4-10 last season out west. The two seed only had 57 wins. The west is deep and a twisted ankle here or shooting slump can put almost any team in any spot.

For as joyless and disjointed the suns looked last season they were still in the scrum. Maybe thing break different this year, maybe not and they sell at the deadline. Shug I have no idea

Sent from my SM-F731U using RealGM mobile app

[garrick]

51 and 46.... Those were the win totals of seeds 4-10 last season out west. The two seed only had 57 wins. The west is deep and a twisted ankle here or shooting slump can put almost any team in any spot.

For as joyless and disjointed the suns looked last season they were still in the scrum. Maybe thing break different this year, maybe not and they sell at the deadline. Shug I have no idea

Sent from my SM-F731U using RealGM mobile app

I forgot the Clips were the #4 seed so I'm not sure if there's one team from the top 5 teams last season the loss of PG13 could drop them to the second tier of playoff teams next season.

The Suns could go as high as the 2nd round but more likely than not I don't think any of the free agent signings or rookies will significantly move the needle much so I expect the results to either be missing the playoffs in the playin or making it to the 1st round again and losing to one of the top 4 teams.

[Mulhollanddrive]

Is Ighodaro going to get a main contract?

[Saberestar]

Read on Twitter

We wanted him so probably we are trying to get another 3/4 to the team. Roddy needs to be traded to a team that can absorb his salary.

[lilfishi22]

51 and 46.... Those were the win totals of seeds 4-10 last season out west. The two seed only had 57 wins. The west is deep and a twisted ankle here or shooting slump can put almost any team in any spot.

For as joyless and disjointed the suns looked last season they were still in the scrum. Maybe thing break different this year, maybe not and they sell at the deadline. Shug I have no idea

Sent from my SM-F731U using RealGM mobile app

I forgot the Clips were the #4 seed so I'm not sure if there's one team from the top 5 teams last season the loss of PG13 could drop them to the second tier of playoff teams next season.

The Suns could go as high as the 2nd round but more likely than not I don't think any of the free agent signings or rookies will significantly move the needle much so I expect the results to either be missing the playoffs in the playin or making it to the 1st round again and losing to one of the top 4 teams.

Fellas on the Timeline Pod put it pretty simply/bluntly, if you didn't believe in the Big 3 to begin with then it won't matter who we pick up

[BobbieL]

51 and 46.... Those were the win totals of seeds 4-10 last season out west. The two seed only had 57 wins. The west is deep and a twisted ankle here or shooting slump can put almost any team in any spot.

For as joyless and disjointed the suns looked last season they were still in the scrum. Maybe thing break different this year, maybe not and they sell at the deadline. Shug I have no idea

Sent from my SM-F731U using RealGM mobile app

I forgot the Clips were the #4 seed so I'm not sure if there's one team from the top 5 teams last season the loss of PG13 could drop them to the second tier of playoff teams next season.

The Suns could go as high as the 2nd round but more likely than not I don't think any of the free agent signings or rookies will significantly move the needle much so I expect the results to either be missing the playoffs in the playin or making it to the 1st round again and losing to one of the top 4 teams.

Fellas on the Timeline Pod put it pretty simply/bluntly, if you didn't believe in the Big 3 to begin with then it won't matter who we pick up

thats a pretty good point from the Timeline Pod - its all about those three

I do think - this team on paper is better than 12 months ago -- Morris, O'Neale and Plumlee are upgrades. Lee healthy should give at least what Gordon gave

But you are correct - if the big 3 play well - that is what is carrying the team

[Ghost of Kleine]

So I hear a lot of talk about his form looking good.

So does this mean when he shot really poorly in college his form was terrible?

Because yes, if his form was terrible and now it's good that is very good news.

If his form was good and he shot that poorly, well, not sure what continuing to have good form would mean, if anything, other than the fact that I guess it's good that it's not poor form.

You should read the breakdown on Dunn by kellan Olson in the link from the tweet that I posted above :
https://arizonasports.com/story/3550024/ryan-dunn-oso-ighodaro-maximized-suns/

It speaks to the context of his opportunities at Virginia a bit man:

Dunn’s Cavaliers under head coach Tony Bennett have been known for years now as a plodding offensive team, lucky to reach a point total in the 70s or 80s, an intentional effort to control pace. In KenPom’s adjusted tempo, which calculates the amount of possessions a team has per game, Virginia ranked dead last in the country. That is 362nd out of 362 teams.

Dunn is a hyper-athletic wing with an explosive physical profile best utilized in transition and with as much space as possible. Considering he’s a limited offensive player at this time as well, it’s even more important for him to get chances on the run. That was of no interest to Virginia.

I talked about this contextually as to how the very low pace low posessions seriously limited his overall opportunities/ posessions towards development in my back and forth discusions with Fishi. Dunn only played 11-13 minutes in his freshman season, and his opportunities in his role severely restricted his opportunities for on court improvements due to very low possessions and very limited opportunities overall.

My point being that Dunns' role was again limited to Bennett's strategy of using him exclusively as a play finisher, rebounder, and dunkers' spot lob threat. And overall, a defensive specialist for them because Bennett himself stated that was exclusively his role because they were undersized and unathletic.

So with increased opportunity, Dunn should get more reps to actually improve in live game scenarios whether in the G league or in garbage time initially? The mental aspects should improve as he gets opportunities and makes some shots to build confidence.

I trust your draft knowledge more than James Jones. Not a super flattering compliment but still.

You know ball. I’m curious, if you were GM, are you taking Dunn in the first round? If not, who are you taking?

Sorry if you’ve already answered or posted this before in some other thread. You can link that to me instead if it’s any easier.

In a draft like this last one, yes. In a normal draft, he'd be in the mid 30s to maybe early 40s' as a 2nd round value target. The context of our situation and the drafts fluidity of talent throughout also being key determinate factors here.

With Dunn, the clear value comes from what he's already established, his elite all nba level defensive versatility. The upside risk ( swing) that you take is on his offensive struggles improving to the point he can either become passable or even potentially a two way talent. But for us and our specific situation ( currently)

1- We're significantly short on assets.
2- We have no elite, lockdown, or even high level defenders on our roster ( prior to adding Dunn).
3- We already have an offensively loaded team.
4- The going rate for a true all defensive caliber lockdown defender ( ala Caruso or Dort is around 2 1sts). And it's honestly a rarity to get one.
5- This particular draft is flush with role players and maybe some (low impact) high floor but low ceiling prospects throughout lacking any true star potential.

So taking all of these factors into consideration, as a front office, you look at the best value pull you can get in a shallow draft scenario. Dunn represents extreme value due to his elite defensive capabilities. Which again has established value around the league at a premium IN COMPARISON TO the average low impact role players you'd otherwise be targeting in this type of draft. An identifiable elite skillset will represent guaranteed value for us.

And IF you as a front office believe in your development team, shooting coaches, and culture enough to believe that you can develop Dunns' shooting to even respectable levels, then you'll have successfully pulled lottery level value turning an elite one way player into a lottery level two way talent with a very late first in a garbage draft. Risk vs reward...lol.

If not Dunn, Then I would've taken: (Guaranteed value)
1- Tyler Kolek.
2- Kyle Filipowski.
3- DaRon Holmes.

Star upside swing prospects ( star/ impact starter ceiling potential- at or after #22)

1- Tyler Smith.
2- Isaiah Collier.
3- Kyle Filipowski.
* Ajay Mitchell.
* Bobi Klintman.

[Ghost of Kleine]

He's already working on things man!

Read on Twitter

He's not missing much if any shots in this clip and his mechanics and form look pretty clean too! I keep telling people his shot is gonna improve.

These are literally highlights. They aren't showing misses because that would go against the point of HIGHlights.

You want to see uncut footage of shooting drills like this to really see where his shooting is. 5min of straight footage, no cuts, no highlights. Even then, all you would be seeing is improvement in the consistency of his shot which doesn't always translate to real world shooting success either.

Watch on YouTube

Everything that you've said and shared here is of course fair and valid that highlights of course show highlights of a player's best moments. You're also right that a player's shooting might not translate to live in game/ high pressure situations. But again, there are a multitude of factors whether external/ internal or possibly even both that can ultimately swing outcomes either way.

So it's not like we're dealing in absolutes here for a young players outcome. You can choose to fall on either side of the spectrum of hope, faith, and optimism, or skepticism, disbelief, and pessimism. I care nothing for highlight videos aside from maybe OPbeing able to identify specific factors present that can contribute to a favorable outcome validating potential value/ impact (which Dunn already possesses defensively, even without offensive impact).

And for Dunn's concerns with shooting and IF he can actually improve or not, I'm looking at his mechanics form, shooting arch and/or consistent repetive shooting motions/ habits. As in if they're consistent and not constantly fluctuating or changing, then there's a solid foundation for improvement there. You've made your position on this quite clear, as I have mine too. We'll see how things play out soon enough, but I for my part choose to have strong beliefs taking all the contextual information available and what I've seen so far into account that he'll absolutely improve his shooting.

And of course you and others are free to believe whatever you choose in regards to Dunns shooting till proven otherwise.

[Mulhollanddrive]

Who will have better +/- this season Morris or Beal?

[Mulhollanddrive]

Rotationbation

12 - Beal, Booker, O'Neale, Durant, Nurkic
5 - Morris, Booker, Allen, Durant, Plumlee
3 - Morris, Booker, Allen, Bol, Plumlee

12 - Beal, Allen, Covington, Bol, Nurkic
7 - Morris, Allen, Covington, Durant, Plumlee
5 - Morris, Booker, O'Neale, Durant, Plumlee
2 - Beal, Booker, O'Neale, Durant, Nurkic