Season Speculation, Trade Ideas & Discussion Pt. 4

[King4Day]

I've been a bit out of touch as I've been travelling all month and missing most games. Can someone fill me in on the following?

1. Why do we think James was cut? I know he was a ball stopper (but he was also a spark plug sometimes). Was it just that the ball wasn't moving enough?
2. What makes Caanan so special that we replaced James for him? Has he really improved since his earlier NBA days that he's a good player now? Does he pass? Defend? Shoot?
3. What are the lineup expectations when Booker returns?

Thanks!

[jredsaz]

Just listened to the Broussard-Booker podcast.

We need to make playoffs by 2020 or we're tempting fate with him. It's hard to see one of the 2016-2019 draftees being a 15 game difference maker by then. Surely it's approaching time to add a ready made All-Star this off-season.

I didn't listen to the podcast because I have a strong like for Broussard. That said, Booker is in his 3rd year. It's basically unheard of for a player to turn down a max extension on their first deal. Even NOLA for as bad as they've been got AD to sign his deal. We should have Booker for the 7 years of which he's played 2 and 1/2. There's still time but we definitely can't afford to keep busting on draft picks.

4.5 years total. Two years before the rumors he wants out and peak "I want a trade out of this place" market value. We have 2.5 seasons to make the playoffs or it's going to start getting ugly. If we aren't in the mix for the playoffs next year the rumblings will start.

We have the leeway to tank this year if we can. Schedule gets much harder for sure and we might be able to stay under 30 wins for the season. But after that it's got to be all about winning around Booker.

[bwgood77]

If Booker signs a max we don't have to even think about trading him (unless we thought it would make our team better) until 2022.

I don't see Booker saying he wants out unless we keep changing coaches every year and trade Ulis and Chriss.

[Mulhollanddrive]

Can the young core on their own win 45 games within 3 seasons?

Booker, Warren, Jackson, Chriss, Bender, 2018 Pick, 2019 Pick.

To me there has to be an acceleration with an external star at some point why not this off-season.

[Qwigglez]

Can the young core on their own win 45 games within 3 seasons?

Booker, Warren, Jackson, Chriss, Bender, 2018 Pick, 2019 Pick.

To me there has to be an acceleration with an external star at some point why not this off-season.

Why not right now? Do whatever it takes to get Schroder here to pair up with Booker.
I'd offer Knight, the 2018 Miami 1st, and the Bucks 1st. Not enough? Trade the 2021 Miami 1st? Still not enough, okay then our 2020 1st (top 5 protected). Sure it's a lot to give up for Schroder but we maintaining cap flexibility for the summer by trading Knight.
Boogie stays with the Pelicans, okay. DeAndre Jordan would be a perfect compliment to a slashing Schroder/Booker or even Warren. We might be able to get Derrick Favors for 16-18mil a year. He's only 26. Regardless Schroder can help make Chriss/Bender and even Len look good. He's an underrated passer IMO, and didn't actually realize how good he is. This is really the last opportunity we have to drastically change our team by next year since Booker's max extension this summer will offset any salaries coming off the books by 2019 (Chandler/Dudley). I'm sure our front office realizes this and they are just waiting for the next opportunity to present itself.

Watch on YouTube

[bwgood77]

Can the young core on their own win 45 games within 3 seasons?

Booker, Warren, Jackson, Chriss, Bender, 2018 Pick, 2019 Pick.

To me there has to be an acceleration with an external star at some point why not this off-season.

Why not right now? Do whatever it takes to get Schroder here to pair up with Booker.
I'd offer Knight, the 2018 Miami 1st, and the Bucks 1st. Not enough? Trade the 2021 Miami 1st? Still not enough, okay then our 2020 1st (top 5 protected). Sure it's a lot to give up for Schroder but we maintaining cap flexibility for the summer by trading Knight.
Boogie stays with the Pelicans, okay. DeAndre Jordan would be a perfect compliment to a slashing Schroder/Booker or even Warren. We might be able to get Derrick Favors for 16-18mil a year. He's only 26. Regardless Schroder can help make Chriss/Bender and even Len look good. He's an underrated passer IMO, and didn't actually realize how good he is. This is really the last opportunity we have to drastically change our team by next year since Booker's max extension this summer will offset any salaries coming off the books by 2019 (Chandler/Dudley). I'm sure our front office realizes this and they are just waiting for the next opportunity to present itself.

I'm guessing when he said "external star" he didn't mean Dennis Schroeder.

[DirtyDez]

Schroder reminded me of Bledsoe where you could watch the right YouTube video and think he's a stud. I will say his handle looks much tighter and he's quicker but still a combo guy who needs 17 shots to get 20 pts. He'd still be a tremendous upgrade that doesn't have knee concerns.

[carey]

I honestly think we need to pick our poison between JJ/Warren and Chriss/Bender. Then we need to trade the other 2 plus a pick for someone that can play the Robin to Booker's Batman. I have no idea who that is though. We probably need to wait until after the lottery to see if we'll be one of the teams that snags Trae Young or Doncic.

[bwgood77]

I honestly think we need to pick our poison between JJ/Warren and Chriss/Bender. Then we need to trade the other 2 plus a pick for someone that can play the Robin to Booker's Batman. I have no idea who that is though. We probably need to wait until after the lottery to see if we'll be one of the teams that snags Trae Young or Doncic.

I don't think any of those guys have enough trade value, or are good enough to dispose of their counterpart to make such decisions on them, and obviously Warren is going nowhere this year.

If we hope to go anywhere and Booker is a Batman, we need more Batmans and our best chance of finding those are in the draft.

[Blackification]

I honestly think we need to pick our poison between JJ/Warren and Chriss/Bender. Then we need to trade the other 2 plus a pick for someone that can play the Robin to Booker's Batman. I have no idea who that is though. We probably need to wait until after the lottery to see if we'll be one of the teams that snags Trae Young or Doncic.

I don't think any of those guys have enough trade value, or are good enough to dispose of their counterpart to make such decisions on them, and obviously Warren is going nowhere this year.

If we hope to go anywhere and Booker is a Batman, we need more Batmans and our best chance of finding those are in the draft.

That or overpaying someone in free agency and hoping they make a big jump

[Qwigglez]

Schroder reminded me of Bledsoe where you could watch the right YouTube video and think he's a stud. I will say his handle looks much tighter and he's quicker but still a combo guy who needs 17 shots to get 20 pts. He'd still be a tremendous upgrade that doesn't have knee concerns.

I would agree except Schroder is posting 7 assists per game and I can't even name the rest of their starters. He's shooting 45% with no help and turns the ball over far less than Bledsoe does. He is also on a very reasonable contract and is the same age as Warren so he fits our timeline.

[Mulhollanddrive]

If you had 3 swings to beat GSW with 3 Max Contracts I'm not sure Schroder should be one of them. Especially given it would mean equally smart people at Atlanta with insider information think it's a good idea to make a $200m bet against him.

[Qwigglez]

If you had 3 swings to beat GSW with 3 Max Contracts I'm not sure Schroder should be one of them. Especially given it would mean equally smart people at Atlanta with insider information think it's a good idea to make a $200m bet against him.

I'm not sure what you are getting at. Schroder is being paid 15.5mil a season, not exactly breaking the bank, especially if we traded Knight for him. We'd still be able to get a max free agent to pair with Booker along with our two Robin's in Schroder/Warren and string along our young guns.

[NavLDO]

Well if you read the article or listened to the podcast you'd find out that it's not based on who's good now in it's entirety and it's largely based on the past two years as well. He even explains in the podcast how Booker will likely rise in those rankings throughout this year because more weight will be given to this year. Then there are the rookies playing really well who only have data from this year to go on plus how good they were in college. A guy like Fultz doesn't really have any game data from this year. He said he'd expect by the end of the year for Booker and Fultz to swap places.

But apparently the big complainers have been Suns fans so it makes sense that you think it's a garbage list.

But look at what you are saying, BW...he's mixing and matching pro and college performance. How much weight do you give to each? Do you look at games equally? Do you look at seasons equally? Then he says he expects Fultz and Booker to swap places?? based upon what...if he's using a model...doesn;t that just invalidate it if it changes based upon if a guy is playing or not??? Or is injured???

That is my whole premise. I don't need to listen to a podcast to see all the disclaimers built in to this 'model' to see that it is inaccurate.

And how can you say it's not about the 'now', when the rankings will change based upon their future play? Does he really think this model is accurate in placing Chriss 20 spots higher than Bender? Bender is trending 'up' while Chriss is trending 'down', so the model doesn't take these trends into consideration either? We can look at Dunn's, or Sabonis' two years in the league, and say they are worse than Chriss. But if we look at this season compared to his, and they look much better, yet they ranked lower than Chriss.

Then don't get me started on Wiggins. I agree he is overrated, but he's not 4 spots lower than Chriss, overrated.

I am just of the opinion that this model is lacking in several areas, and doesn't take into consideration any type of trend analysis, is all.

I'll just drop it, since I've been known to make a mountain out of a mole hill; it just isn't that important. To me, this is nothing more than 'click bait' and designed to get readers inflamed and passionate about defending why X player on their team deserves to be in the Top 10. I'm sure there are a lot of positives about the model, but in 5 years, if we were to comeback and look at this, I believe the model will prove to be wildly inaccurate IRT where Booker, Chriss, and Bender are ranked against others on this list, and I think you can guess where I would place them...but let's not guess...without a model, I predict Booker to be ahead of Ball, Adebayo, Collins, Russell, Harris, Smith Jr. and Towns...but lower than Isaac, Ingram, and possibly Parker, if he's ever healthy. While Bender will be in the 20s, and Chriss, if he's still in the NBA...somewhere between 43 and 46...assuming 4-6 have been ousted from the NBA by then.

I'm not arguing it's right or wrong, nor is the guy who created it. He just showed what a model he created spit out and has discussed where he thinks it is off.

There are no "accurate" rankings. It's all subjective. There are objective rankings based on numerous stats or models, but each will have it's flaws so I find as many different statistics and measures + eye test to have influence on how I view different players. One of the things his model spits out is players they most similarly compare to based on what the model told him and the second highest relatable comparison for Booker was Kobe, so another thing to take into consideration...that the computer model, itself, apparently failed to do. Otherwise, how do you explain Booker not being top 5, at a minimum, so that nugget of information makes it look even worse! Many would take that as a good sign of where he could be headed.

Seriously though, thanks for sharing. I do enjoy looking at these types of lists/analysis.

[DaleyBlind]

Who here still think Bledsoe is better than Booker?

[JMac1]

I think we are going to have to revisit the timeline plan. With Booker emergence not being an anomaly, we might not be picking top 5, so trading for or signing a top flight player a little older might have to suffice.

People talk trash about us, but we are like the 11th pick right now and Booker was missing for 3 weeks. We are only going to get better being so young.

Also, last night I saw an offensive scheme for the first time ever. Booker to Len to corner three. Booker to Len to TJ and vice versa... pick and roll via Booker. Booker ISO when needed......Just saying it looked organized last night.

[jredsaz]

I honestly think we need to pick our poison between JJ/Warren and Chriss/Bender. Then we need to trade the other 2 plus a pick for someone that can play the Robin to Booker's Batman. I have no idea who that is though. We probably need to wait until after the lottery to see if we'll be one of the teams that snags Trae Young or Doncic.

I don't think any of those guys have enough trade value, or are good enough to dispose of their counterpart to make such decisions on them, and obviously Warren is going nowhere this year.

If we hope to go anywhere and Booker is a Batman, we need more Batmans and our best chance of finding those are in the draft.

You just went through 3 top 10 picks and said that those players don't have any value and then turned around and said that the draft is our best opportunity to find another good player. I would argue that trade is at least equivalent. Third is FA.

[Wilber85]

My question is

Why would the Hawks trade Knight for Schroeder? Are y'all dreaming or ?

[Wilber85]

Also the question I have. Do you really think Booker is a #1 option?

[WeekapaugGroove]

Also the question I have. Do you really think Booker is a #1 option?

Number 1 scoring option on a good team? Yeah absolutely, especially if he continues to improve his efficiency.

Can he be the best player on a team that wins a championship? That's a tough one because you can only say that about 4-5 guys in the entire league so as of now no but dude is only 21 so it's not completely out of the question when he hits his prime.

Bottom line is with the leap he's taken this year he can be viewed as a core piece and max contract guy. He will need other core max guys around him but it's a start. And it's an incredibly important start because he's the type of guy that other good players might want to play with so that can help recruiting FAs and in trading for the disgruntled star.