bwgood77 wrote:If you would have called the Cam pick I'd be really impressed. You think they'd take Jalen Smith over Toppin if both were there at 10? I don't think Toppin will be, but just curious of your thoughts there.
I mean, if I had called the Cam pick, you'd have to assume I'm not McD, but rather James Jones himself!
As to your question, it's so weird, because I've agreed with you that Toppin would probably be our pick at #1, but yeah, I could see us taking Smith over Toppin at #10 for all the reasons I gave, and obviously I don't think we'd take Smith #1. Clearly, I'm very confused about this draft, constantly vacillating and rethinking things.
Toppin's a stretch 4/5 who can post, finish, shoot, handle and pass, but can't do much of anything on the defensive end. Smith is a stretch 5/4 who can do little more than shoot on offense (and he's a terrible passer), but he gives you more rebounding and rim protection (though to be fair, he's not that far ahead of Toppin in DBPM). He's two years younger, but not the special athlete that Toppin is. I guess the reason I like Smith so much is that when I watch the tape, Smith plays like a true NBA stretch 5. Toppin may be a slightly better shooter from 3, but he's worse from the line. Toppin doesn't draw very many fouls for a big, fwiw.
If we had a top 3 pick, I'm back to where I was originally - LaMelo, Hayes, Okongwu. But really, there isn't a player projected to go in the lottery that fits neatly with our roster and what we're trying to do. OTOH, we drafted Cam when we were already pretty well stacked at SF. Perhaps that's a clue that I shouldn't focus so much on positions and should focus more on our stated goal of finding players who know how to make plays. Worth noting that Cam has that magic combo, and perhaps we'll try to replicate it: he hits shots and plays D. If that's the case, perhaps ray ray and you are onto something when you talk about Saddiq Bey. He's not a playmaker though, and perhaps our priorities have shifted. I prefer Nesmith, fwiw.
I guess we'd take Toppin due to his passing skills and the easier fit next to Deandre. But it's close. Again, I think we could really use a weak-side shot blocker, and I don't think Toppin's that guy. Reed and Precious are probably better than Smith on that front. If we care most about our ability to switch on defense, one of those two might be the target, but neither of those kids can shoot. They both seem to have a great work ethic, but BBIQ is a work-in-progress for each. BBIQ is where Jalen has the advantage, since Paul and even moreso Precious are bad decisionmakers on offense, while Toppin has poor BBIQ on defense. Only Jalen has it working both ways, though his ceiling is probably the lowest of the four.
Poku could exceed all these guys on both ends (maybe not Toppin on O), but he's not ready and lacks both maturity and physical development: for at least a season, he'd take away more than he gives you on the court. Same could probably be said for Reed and Precious. In the end,
it all comes down to player personality: which of these guys will Monty be able to mold?I'm probably thinking too much about our positional needs. It's a trap I fell for in 2018, where I straight up disregarded what I knew to be true: that Luka was the right pick. If it's all about BPA at #10, then this list is straight trash, because the correct answer would be whomever drops among LaMelo, Okongwu, Hayes, Vassell, Avdija, Toppin and Haliburton (in roughly that order), probably followed by Nesmith, Pokusevski, and the chronically underrated Tyler Bey. After looking more closely, I might pass on Wiseman if he fell to #10 (not that we'll have the opportunity). I WOULD pass on Edwards, though I can see why scouts are enamored. I just don't buy high on chuckers.
bwgood77 wrote:Are you saying you don't want to take any PG because of Carter? Though I guess you think of Carter as a backup SG, so is that what you think Riller's role would be? And if you don't want a backup SG because of Carter (I thought you did), does that mean you wouldn't want to take Vassell?
It's not that I wouldn't take any PG, but rather that I'd strongly prefer to avoid *small* guards, whether you project them as a 1 or a 2. As I said, I don't think Haliburton, for instance, would push Carter out, as you could play Tyrese next to any of the guards on our roster. But if you're playing all of Payne, Carter and Riller, you're going real small. Vassell's as much of a 3 as he is a 2 (maybe more so, actually), so that's not a problem. I still want to add at least one SG in any case - I just prefer one who's at least 6'4". Preferably one that can shoot and who wouldn't be unhappy with inconsistent minutes. Given that criteria, I wouldn't have a problem with Haliburton, Vassell or Hayes, though as I've said, I doubt Hayes is the pick. (I also have real concerns about Haliburton's frame: he'll get roasted every time he's switched onto any NBA forward, let alone an NBA center, which makes him functionally much smaller on defense than his height and wingspan would otherwise indicate.) There are also plenty of free agents who would fit the bill at the 2/3.
Then again, perhaps the bubble showed us just how useful a scoring guard (like Payne) can be for this team. So maybe, rather than the bubble pushing us away from a guy like Riller, perhaps it pushes us toward him.
FWIW, he's not an advanced stats darling, and despite his age and weak competition, he only shot 36% from 3. Gets more rebounds than assists. IDK, perhaps we're taking these Riller comps a little too far. If FVV is the comp, it's worth noting that FVV's A/TO rate was around 3 in college and is around 3 in the NBA, whereas Riller's is around 1.2: not what you want to see from a 23 YO PG. FVV shot better from 3 in college, but much worse from the field overall. What really distinguishes Riller from FVV is his ability to get to the basket and the line. 3 inches taller than FVV and an inch taller than Dame. I guess I think of him as more of a 2 on offense, but you could also think of him as a scoring PG.
All things considered, I think there are better, more useful players available at #10 than Riller. If you don't project him to be a star scorer in the league, then you have a player who's of limited value. In fact, as much as I've been anti-Kira, I'd probably take Kira ahead of Riller - which of course means I'd take neither.
Sorry for the long post that clarified nothing. I'm all over the place on this draft, which is a big part of the reason why nothing would surprise me come draft night.
