The Draft Thread: Ayton Vs Doncic 1

[bwgood77]

Why can't people just admit that Doncic isn't that good of a shooter right now lol? I'm as big of a Doncic fan as anyone, but 33% on his career is not a good 3PT% for someone who will be a primary shot creator, and 31% when he was the primary shot creator is equally bad. You can say he took tough shots late in the clock and at the end of quarters, but he's going to be doing the in the NBA too. Is the expectation really for his 3PT% to jump almost 10% when the line moves back and the defense becomes more athletic? He definitely has potential to improve, but it's not like it's going to get easier.

I agree he wasn't a good shooter from deep this year, kind of like overall Trae wasn't nearly as good as I think he will be. Though Trae still ended up with over a 58% TS% and Doncic over a 61% TS% despite not shooting well from 3.

But I think they both faced a lot more attention and had a lot less spacing than they will likely face moving forward. While they will be going against better defenders, they will be playing with higher end talent where defenses can't as much game plan specifically for stopping them with all the double teams and the floor will be more spread out with NBA spacing and I think they both have NBA range.

And they will likely improve their shot selection and not have to take such tough shots off the dribble quite as often. I think they will probably both initially struggle like all the rookie ball handlers did shooting this year, but will improve and I expect Trae to end up shooting better than 36% from 3 by his second year and Doncic better than 33%.

I feel pretty good about shooters who have shown the capability, take tough shots off the dribble and shoot over 80% from the line.

[8on]

Ayton explains it best:



When you’re putting up 28 and 14 regularly, you have the right to take possessions off as a 19 year old.

If you're tired banging in the paint against smaller, less developed teens and 20 year olds, just wait until you go through the grind of an 82 game season against men his size.

Yep these type of comments make me question Ayton's desire to win.

Incorrect. He gets tired as a 19 year old after dropping 28 and 14 in ya face so he may just take some possessions off on defense.

He’ll get stronger and more resilient. Sheesh.

[lilfishi22]

Why can't people just admit that Doncic isn't that good of a shooter right now lol? I'm as big of a Doncic fan as anyone, but 33% on his career is not a good 3PT% for someone who will be a primary shot creator, and 31% when he was the primary shot creator is equally bad. You can say he took tough shots late in the clock and at the end of quarters, but he's going to be doing the in the NBA too. Is the expectation really for his 3PT% to jump almost 10% when the line moves back and the defense becomes more athletic? He definitely has potential to improve, but it's not like it's going to get easier.

I suppose when people stop assuming Ayton already has a 3PT shot in his arsenal. If we're talking shooting, Luka is far further advanced from a developed shot from all levels than Ayton. So if we're not going to expect Doncic to raise his 3pt% by 10%, we shouldn't do the same for Ayton.

Regarding defense in the NBA, it's definitely going to be tougher but there's also notably more spacing for him to work. Someone who knows how to use a screen well to create space will bring that every game but he may only encounter legit high level defenders that would shut him down every so few games.

[76ciology]

The fans deserve a chance to see what an all-time great big man could do to "the modern offense." Give me dunks or give me death!!! Give me Ayton!!!!

It’s an unbelievable wrinkle. The traditional big man was dead since at least 2012....until it isn’t? Can’t play PJ on Ayton, now, can you?

Until Ayton tries to post up PJ and takes the worst percentage shot in the NBA and misses. Then Ayton can't cover the guard in the switch on the pick-n-roll on the other end. Over many possessions the 3ptr will beat the post-up every time.

Exactly.

Shot at the post is the worst shot because it’s the most challenged shot and toughest to run on the floor.

Only way you can go to a post heavy offense is to be able to defend at an ultra elite level which is very close to impossible in today’s rule.

NBA has empower the drive too much and this lead to a lot of open shots due to the need to provide help D.

Help D is why a guy on the floor need not only be switchable but be able to cover distance and defend 3-4 guys in a single possession. You need great awareness/instinct and length for that.

At some point I thought, “hey why not force a switch then let a big attack a smaller guy. Maybe that would lead to higher ppp”

but see..

you bring down the ball for 8 secs

You run a simply screen play to force a switch for 6 secs

Big at the post against a smaller guys.. less than 10 secs remaining at shotclock

Entry pass and big getting backing down the smaller guy.. 5 secs remaining

You then throw double team..

The post player would need 5 secs to throw a cross court pass with multiple 7’ wingspan defenders trying to deflect it.

The game is just designed to be unfavorable to operate at the post due to it’s heavy physicality/challenged nature and limited time.

And if you go for 3&drives, it’s less challenged and you get more time to operate. If initial attempt to drive is denied.. you still got another try! Worst case, you take a less challenged perimeter shot. Mid range is always available.

Thats how I see it

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Until Ayton tries to post up PJ and takes the worst percentage shot in the NBA and misses. Then Ayton can't cover the guard in the switch on the pick-n-roll on the other end. Over many possessions the 3ptr will beat the post-up every time.

A dunk is the best shot.

An uncontested dunk is the best shot. It will be contested by PJ or another stout defender with long arms that is faster all day long. People ignoring the history since 2005. D'Antoni changed the system with seven seconds or less and the GSW/Rockets have perfected it. The game has changed since Shaq, Duncan, Ewing, Yao, and Olajuwan played. Dominate bigs are going extinct like the dinosaurs ... too big and slow to survive.

This is the chart we all need to be paying attention to with this discussion. https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ts_pct_career.html

IMO, the SSOL Suns could have developed into one of the all-time great teams, had Amare not gotten injured. That's because Amare's percentages - at that volume - was crazy high. That 04-05 team started the transition to where the league is today.

A big part of the change in styles is due to rule changes, sure, but the biggest part has been skill development, pure and simple. Take the three, focus on the three, get great at it. NBA players are simply much, much better shooters than they were in eras past.

The league that SSOL transitioned away from, however, is important to remember. The reason the league had transitioned from the run-n-gun eighties to such a post-up oriented game in the nineties was because of the extraordinary talent of the bigs of that generation - Olajuwon, Barkley, Ewing, Malone, Robinson, and finally, Shaq. When all the rest of those guys were gone, we were left with Shaq, and a league desperate to stop him. Otherwise, the game that was sort of dead. A generation of "superstars" like Carter, McGrady, Iverson, Francis and Marbury never really learned to be efficient and productive offensive players. Iso ball up top with bigs defending down low. Teams were designed to contend with a type of player that no longer existed - except for Shaq.

I know post ups in general are not good, but a Shaq post up was unstoppable, and still would be today... Your biggest big is Zaza Pachulia? Nene? Uh, pleeeease. It wasn't until Shaq and Kobe split (and Shaq precipitously declined) that the modern offense began to take shape here in Phoenix and now in Golden State and Houston.

THE THING YOU'RE MISSING is that the post up is not how the big is most often used in the modern offense - and that would be true even if the offense were designed around him. Of any team's fans, ours should know this best, because we all watched Amare. The ideal modern big rolls to the rim, catches everything, finishes everything, over and against anyone. A great one will turn a 12 footer into a layup with a dribble, hit his free throws and step out for the open shot when offered. He'll gobble up boards and keep defenses honest with his tremendous gravity. Everything we've seen from Ayton suggests he'll be able to do all those things.

By now we've all seen teams stacked with shooters better than any known to the NBA of the past. Now let's see what happens when you put one of those great wrecking balls of yesteryear in the middle of it. SHAZAM!!!

Ayton's home in the US is Arizona. He wants to be here. We have the #1 pick. The 50/50 curse has been lifted. The modern NBA offense was birthed here. Now, like a Phoenix, the modern offense must here be reborn.

[8on]

The modern game has passed by dominant scoring big men. The way I see it, the risk is not whether a Doncic type wing initiator fits an elite modern NBA team that can win a championship, the risk is betting that the modern NBA will shift back to favoring offensive big men (legit 6-11, 7ft 250lb bigs).

Only because there are no traditional big men in the league.

Because they've been phased out. They aren't gone. There are still 6-11, 7ft bigs playing in college but they don't make it into the NBA because the game and the pace just doesn't favor whatever size advantage they bring anymore.

A 60% shot is a 60% shot. Call it 40% from 3 or 60% from 2. It’s the same to me

Being in the paint doesn't mean you're automatically in the 60% range. And how many times are you getting the ball close enough to the rim to get a 60% shot? How hard is it to get to that spot? On the flip side, a drive and kick to the corner 3 aka the best shot in basketball, is a play that Doncic has mastered and that shot mathematically gives you the highest PPP and it's a high PPP shot because it's often not well defended as the play is orchestrated in such a way for that shot to be open.

They don’t have the skill level of Ayton.

A shot is only as good as the skill of the person taking that shot in that area of the floor.

[bwgood77]

how do you figure

His 80%+ free throw percentage is a very good indicator of future three point shooting. Also eliminating his half court heaves he is closer to .350 this year.

I expect him to shoot around 37% like Paul George.

That's about what I expect. That's about what Harden shoots too..actually a little better. I think some of these guys would shoot better if they shot more catch and shoots, but shooting so many off the dribble brings it down. That's why it's hard to compare shooters....someone who only shoots wide open catch and shoots is likely to have a higher % than a really high volume primary ball handler who takes them off the dribble, who actually may be just as good or better at catch and shoots.

That's why I want a lot of ball movement and open looks....also a reason I think Booker and Doncic would play well off of each other. Doncic will likely need to improve his shot selection too.

[8on]

read:

https://www.thestepien.com/2018/05/06/recent-struggles-doncic-still-number-one/

[76ciology]

Shaq? He’d still be unstoppable.

He still needs to outscore all those drives and 3s. Which I doubt.

He is also not switchable on D and wouldnt be able to cover multiple guys in a single possession like Draymond or Embiid nor is he fast enough to prevent getting outnumbered on transition defense.

Shaq in his prime was only getting 57-58 TS%. Curry is getting 67 TS% in his prime,atleast 60 TS% in his last 7 of 9 seasons. Hell.. IT in his last season with the Celts was getting 60TS% on 29ppg.

If you look at the numbers, today’s perimeter players are getting better scoring numbers compared to the bigs of previous era.

[TheLogician]

His 80%+ free throw percentage is a very good indicator of future three point shooting. Also eliminating his half court heaves he is closer to .350 this year.

I expect him to shoot around 37% like Paul George.

That's about what I expect. That's about what Harden shoots too..actually a little better. I think some of these guys would shoot better if they shot more catch and shoots, but shooting so many off the dribble brings it down. That's why it's hard to compare shooters....someone who only shoots wide open catch and shoots is likely to have a higher % than a really high volume primary ball handler who takes them off the dribble, who actually may be just as good or better at catch and shoots.

That's why I want a lot of ball movement and open looks....also a reason I think Booker and Doncic would play well off of each other. Doncic will likely need to improve his shot selection too.

Yep, I completely agree. I just think some are discounting Ayton's shooting. Automatic from 18 feet, high release, and silky smooth mechanics. Not unreasonable to expect improvement at the next level.

[76ciology]

read:

https://www.thestepien.com/2018/05/06/recent-struggles-doncic-still-number-one/

Yup, that’s the downside for me with Doncic.


He will settle to a lot of mid range and floaters that may make his % look inconsistent. But nevertheless, he’s still is a better pick for me than Ayton.

Offensively, doncic will take less challenged shots his entire career and being less of a liability on D relative to defensive responsibility. His game is just more favorable in today’s game than Ayton.

But if you want to take a leap of faith for Ayton, its also an understandable position IMO for Ayton got the upside that Doncic doesnt have.

If Sixers is making the pick, there’s no doubt in my mind they’d select Ayton.

[8on]

Shaq? He’d still be unstoppable.

He still needs to outscore all those drives and 3s. Which I doubt.

He is also not switchable on D and wouldnt be able to cover multiple guys in a single possession like Draymond or Embiid nor is he fast enough to prevent getting outnumbered on transition defense.

Shaq in his prime was only getting 57-58 TS%. Curry is getting 67 TS% in his prime,atleast 60 TS% in his last 7 of 9 seasons. Hell.. IT in his last season with the Celts was getting 60TS% on 29ppg.

If you look at the numbers, today’s perimeter players are getting better scoring numbers compared to the bigs of previous era.

Now Shaq would have to dunk on Al Horford instead of Dale Davis.

[bigfoot]

A dunk is the best shot.

An uncontested dunk is the best shot. It will be contested by PJ or another stout defender with long arms that is faster all day long. People ignoring the history since 2005. D'Antoni changed the system with seven seconds or less and the GSW/Rockets have perfected it. The game has changed since Shaq, Duncan, Ewing, Yao, and Olajuwan played. Dominate bigs are going extinct like the dinosaurs ... too big and slow to survive.

This is the chart we all need to be paying attention to with this discussion. https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ts_pct_career.html

IMO, the SSOL Suns could have developed into one of the all-time great teams, had Amare not gotten injured. That's because Amare's percentages - at that volume - was crazy high. That 04-05 team started the transition to where the league is today.

A big part of the change in styles is due to rule changes, sure, but the biggest part has been skill development, pure and simple. Take the three, focus on the three, get great at it. NBA players are simply much, much better shooters than they were in eras past.

The league that SSOL transitioned away from, however, is important to remember. The reason the league had transitioned from the run-n-gun eighties to such a post-up oriented game in the nineties was because of the extraordinary talent of the bigs of that generation - Olajuwon, Barkley, Ewing, Malone, Robinson, and finally, Shaq. When all the rest of those guys were gone, we were left with Shaq, and a league desperate to stop him. Otherwise, the game that was sort of dead. A generation of "superstars" like Carter, McGrady, Iverson, Francis and Marbury never really learned to be efficient and productive offensive players. Iso ball up top with bigs defending down low. Teams were designed to contend with a type of player that no longer existed - except for Shaq.

I know post ups in general are not good, but a Shaq post up was unstoppable, and still would be today... Your biggest big is Zaza Pachulia? Nene? Uh, pleeeease. It wasn't until Shaq and Kobe split (and Shaq precipitously declined) that the modern offense began to take shape here in Phoenix and now in Golden State and Houston.

THE THING YOU'RE MISSING is that the post up is not how the big is most often used in the modern offense - and that would be true even if the offense were designed around him. Of any team's fans, ours should know this best, because we all watched Amare. The ideal modern big rolls to the rim, catches everything, finishes everything, over and against anyone. A great one will turn a 12 footer into a layup with a dribble, hit his free throws and step out for the open shot when offered. He'll gobble up boards and keep defenses honest with his tremendous gravity. Everything we've seen from Ayton suggests he'll be able to do all those things.

By now we've all seen teams stacked with shooters better than any known to the NBA of the past. Now let's see what happens when you put one of those great wrecking balls of yesteryear in the middle of it. SHAZAM!!!

Ayton's home in the US is Arizona. He wants to be here. We have the #1 pick. The 50/50 curse has been lifted. The modern NBA offense was birthed here. Now, like a Phoenix, the modern offense must here be reborn.

The reason why it failed was Amare, while more than capable offensively, could not play defense. He was a liability. He was not the defensive anchor we needed. Nor could Amare hit the three point shot. Amare next to a better defender, rebounder, and three point specialist in Channing Frye almost got us to the finals. Everyone alway wondered why Frye had the biggest plus/minus on the floor when it looked like he did so little. Offensive gravity and better than average defense next to Amare.

The one worry for Ayton, and everyone points it out, is his defensive motor. The second worry is can he develop three point range. Doncic on the other hand has a career.601 true shooting percentage which would put him in the top 25. Therefore by your argument, Doncic would fit right it. Just get a Channing Frye-like guy (dime a dozen in the NBA) to put in with Booker and Doncic and zing-go-the-strings. Hell Kevin Love would do. Even Chriss could surprise us next year as he seems to have the instincts for help defense if he can just stay in shape.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Shaq? He’d still be unstoppable.

He still needs to outscore all those drives and 3s. Which I doubt.

He is also not switchable on D and wouldnt be able to cover multiple guys in a single possession like Draymond or Embiid nor is he fast enough to prevent getting outnumbered on transition defense.

Shaq in his prime was only getting 57-58 TS%. Curry is getting 67 TS% in his prime,atleast 60 TS% in his last 7 of 9 seasons. Hell.. IT in his last season with the Celts was getting 60TS% on 29ppg.

If you look at the numbers, today’s perimeter players are getting better scoring numbers compared to the bigs of previous era.

I agree, but there's a balance. The roster being trotted out nightly don't have defenses designed to defend the bigs of prior eras. You're talking about this as if Ayton will be constantly having to switch onto Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. Well to the same extent (since they'll have to switch our shooters too, right?) won't Curry and Thompson constantly be having to roll with Deandre Ayton to the rim?

[8on]

Offensively, doncic will take less challenged shots his entire career and being less of a liability on D relative to defensive responsibility

Perimeter defense is better than ever. Post and midrange defense doesn’t exist anymore.

Also, centers have increased responsibility when they’re guarding centers. When they’re guarding shooters, they have the same responsibility as anyone else.

so Doncic would have more defensive responsibility because there are more wing scorers than big man scorers

[76ciology]

Shaq? He’d still be unstoppable.

He still needs to outscore all those drives and 3s. Which I doubt.

He is also not switchable on D and wouldnt be able to cover multiple guys in a single possession like Draymond or Embiid nor is he fast enough to prevent getting outnumbered on transition defense.

Shaq in his prime was only getting 57-58 TS%. Curry is getting 67 TS% in his prime,atleast 60 TS% in his last 7 of 9 seasons. Hell.. IT in his last season with the Celts was getting 60TS% on 29ppg.

If you look at the numbers, today’s perimeter players are getting better scoring numbers compared to the bigs of previous era.

Now Shaq would have to dunk on Al Horford instead of Dale Davis.

I was once a pro-okafor so i went thru want you’re going through.

I had a confirmation bias also.

I ask you, what happens then when Ayton goes up against Gobert, Whiteside or Embiid?

Guys like Horford or Baynes maybe short, but they are strong enough to prevent you to go inside the paint or get you to kill some more secs until they throw a double and you will have a very limited time to throw a crosscourt pass to an open shooter with multiple 7’ wingspan defenders trying to deflect that pass.

If you pull it off, then good. But you have to ask yourself.. was it a better offense than running a PnR, motion, 8 secs or less basketball or a dribble drive?

[8on]

An uncontested dunk is the best shot. It will be contested by PJ or another stout defender with long arms that is faster all day long. People ignoring the history since 2005. D'Antoni changed the system with seven seconds or less and the GSW/Rockets have perfected it. The game has changed since Shaq, Duncan, Ewing, Yao, and Olajuwan played. Dominate bigs are going extinct like the dinosaurs ... too big and slow to survive.

This is the chart we all need to be paying attention to with this discussion. https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ts_pct_career.html

IMO, the SSOL Suns could have developed into one of the all-time great teams, had Amare not gotten injured. That's because Amare's percentages - at that volume - was crazy high. That 04-05 team started the transition to where the league is today.

A big part of the change in styles is due to rule changes, sure, but the biggest part has been skill development, pure and simple. Take the three, focus on the three, get great at it. NBA players are simply much, much better shooters than they were in eras past.

The league that SSOL transitioned away from, however, is important to remember. The reason the league had transitioned from the run-n-gun eighties to such a post-up oriented game in the nineties was because of the extraordinary talent of the bigs of that generation - Olajuwon, Barkley, Ewing, Malone, Robinson, and finally, Shaq. When all the rest of those guys were gone, we were left with Shaq, and a league desperate to stop him. Otherwise, the game that was sort of dead. A generation of "superstars" like Carter, McGrady, Iverson, Francis and Marbury never really learned to be efficient and productive offensive players. Iso ball up top with bigs defending down low. Teams were designed to contend with a type of player that no longer existed - except for Shaq.

I know post ups in general are not good, but a Shaq post up was unstoppable, and still would be today... Your biggest big is Zaza Pachulia? Nene? Uh, pleeeease. It wasn't until Shaq and Kobe split (and Shaq precipitously declined) that the modern offense began to take shape here in Phoenix and now in Golden State and Houston.

THE THING YOU'RE MISSING is that the post up is not how the big is most often used in the modern offense - and that would be true even if the offense were designed around him. Of any team's fans, ours should know this best, because we all watched Amare. The ideal modern big rolls to the rim, catches everything, finishes everything, over and against anyone. A great one will turn a 12 footer into a layup with a dribble, hit his free throws and step out for the open shot when offered. He'll gobble up boards and keep defenses honest with his tremendous gravity. Everything we've seen from Ayton suggests he'll be able to do all those things.

By now we've all seen teams stacked with shooters better than any known to the NBA of the past. Now let's see what happens when you put one of those great wrecking balls of yesteryear in the middle of it. SHAZAM!!!

Ayton's home in the US is Arizona. He wants to be here. We have the #1 pick. The 50/50 curse has been lifted. The modern NBA offense was birthed here. Now, like a Phoenix, the modern offense must here be reborn.

The reason why it failed was Amare, while more than capable offensively, could not play defense. He was a liability. He was not the defensive anchor we needed. Nor could Amare hit the three point shot. Amare next to a better defender, rebounder, and three point specialist in Channing Frye almost got us to the finals. Everyone alway wondered why Frye had the biggest plus/minus on the floor when it looked like he did so little. Offensive gravity and better than average defense next to Amare.

The one worry for Ayton, and everyone points it out, is his defensive motor. The second worry is can he develop three point range. Doncic on the other hand has a career.601 true shooting percentage which would put him in the top 25. Therefore by your argument, Doncic would fit right it. Just get a Channing Frye-like guy (dime a dozen in the NBA) to put in with Booker and Doncic and zing-go-the-strings. Hell Kevin Love would do. Even Chriss could surprise us next year as he seems to have the instincts for help defense if he can just stay in shape.

Tim Duncan was the reason it failed. Amar’e was the reason we got as far as we did

Also Booker/Doncic/Love would give up 125 ppg

[bwgood77]

I expect him to shoot around 37% like Paul George.

That's about what I expect. That's about what Harden shoots too..actually a little better. I think some of these guys would shoot better if they shot more catch and shoots, but shooting so many off the dribble brings it down. That's why it's hard to compare shooters....someone who only shoots wide open catch and shoots is likely to have a higher % than a really high volume primary ball handler who takes them off the dribble, who actually may be just as good or better at catch and shoots.

That's why I want a lot of ball movement and open looks....also a reason I think Booker and Doncic would play well off of each other. Doncic will likely need to improve his shot selection too.

Yep, I completely agree. I just think some are discounting Ayton's shooting. Automatic from 18 feet, high release, and silky smooth mechanics. Not unreasonable to expect improvement at the next level.

Ayton will not have problems scoring. I mean he had a 65% TS%. Obviously I don't expect it to be that high at the next level, and Doncic's probably not over 61% either, but I think both will have above average efficiency. I think it's harder to put up a good TS% in euroleague playing against tougher competition and it's always harder for a wing, so I think their scoring efficiency right now is pretty close

I think Doncic will be a better 3 pt shooter though even though he shot worse from distance, for the reasons listed. I'm sure most all of Ayton's were wide open catch and shoots, from a shorter distance, and his FT% is worse. But I think he could become a decent 3 pt shooting big in time. He's projected at like 32.9% or something like that, but it would be a good starting point.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Spoiler:

An uncontested dunk is the best shot. It will be contested by PJ or another stout defender with long arms that is faster all day long. People ignoring the history since 2005. D'Antoni changed the system with seven seconds or less and the GSW/Rockets have perfected it. The game has changed since Shaq, Duncan, Ewing, Yao, and Olajuwan played. Dominate bigs are going extinct like the dinosaurs ... too big and slow to survive.

This is the chart we all need to be paying attention to with this discussion. https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ts_pct_career.html

IMO, the SSOL Suns could have developed into one of the all-time great teams, had Amare not gotten injured. That's because Amare's percentages - at that volume - was crazy high. That 04-05 team started the transition to where the league is today.

A big part of the change in styles is due to rule changes, sure, but the biggest part has been skill development, pure and simple. Take the three, focus on the three, get great at it. NBA players are simply much, much better shooters than they were in eras past.

The league that SSOL transitioned away from, however, is important to remember. The reason the league had transitioned from the run-n-gun eighties to such a post-up oriented game in the nineties was because of the extraordinary talent of the bigs of that generation - Olajuwon, Barkley, Ewing, Malone, Robinson, and finally, Shaq. When all the rest of those guys were gone, we were left with Shaq, and a league desperate to stop him. Otherwise, the game that was sort of dead. A generation of "superstars" like Carter, McGrady, Iverson, Francis and Marbury never really learned to be efficient and productive offensive players. Iso ball up top with bigs defending down low. Teams were designed to contend with a type of player that no longer existed - except for Shaq.

I know post ups in general are not good, but a Shaq post up was unstoppable, and still would be today... Your biggest big is Zaza Pachulia? Nene? Uh, pleeeease. It wasn't until Shaq and Kobe split (and Shaq precipitously declined) that the modern offense began to take shape here in Phoenix and now in Golden State and Houston.

THE THING YOU'RE MISSING is that the post up is not how the big is most often used in the modern offense - and that would be true even if the offense were designed around him. Of any team's fans, ours should know this best, because we all watched Amare. The ideal modern big rolls to the rim, catches everything, finishes everything, over and against anyone. A great one will turn a 12 footer into a layup with a dribble, hit his free throws and step out for the open shot when offered. He'll gobble up boards and keep defenses honest with his tremendous gravity. Everything we've seen from Ayton suggests he'll be able to do all those things.

By now we've all seen teams stacked with shooters better than any known to the NBA of the past. Now let's see what happens when you put one of those great wrecking balls of yesteryear in the middle of it. SHAZAM!!!

Ayton's home in the US is Arizona. He wants to be here. We have the #1 pick. The 50/50 curse has been lifted. The modern NBA offense was birthed here. Now, like a Phoenix, the modern offense must here be reborn.

The reason why it failed was Amare, while more than capable offensively, could not play defense. He was a liability. He was not the defensive anchor we needed. Nor could Amare hit the three point shot. Amare next to a better defender, rebounder, and three point specialist in Channing Frye almost got us to the finals. Everyone alway wondered why Frye had the biggest plus/minus on the floor when it looked like he did so little. Offensive gravity and better than average defense next to Amare.

The one worry for Ayton, and everyone points it out, is his defensive motor. The second worry is can he develop three point range. Doncic on the other hand has a career.601 true shooting percentage which would put him in the top 25. Therefore by your argument, Doncic would fit right it. Just get a Channing Frye-like guy (dime a dozen in the NBA) to put in with Booker and Doncic and zing-go-the-strings. Hell Kevin Love would do. Even Chriss could surprise us next year as he seems to have the instincts for help defense if he can just stay in shape.

Every team has a Channing Frye to pair with an Amare - it's the Amare that's hard to get. We have a Channing Frye, his name is Dragan Bender. We might have two. Before them, we had two more in Mirza and Jon Leuer. They're called stretch-fours and they're ****ing everywhere.

[76ciology]

Offensively, doncic will take less challenged shots his entire career and being less of a liability on D relative to defensive responsibility

Perimeter defense is better than ever. Post and midrange defense doesn’t exist anymore.

Also, centers have increased responsibility when they’re guarding centers. When they’re guarding shooters, they have the same responsibility as anyone else.

so Doncic would have more defensive responsibility because there are more wing scorers than big man scorers

Post and mid range defense exists by giving up those shots over drives and 3s. If you fall into that drive/3s vs post/mid range game, you’d lose the battle more often.

I feel that you can afford Doncic being a liability on D than Ayton. Doncic will still be playable in the playoffs being a liability on D, unlike Ayton.