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Ford: We tackled our favorites for Rookie of the Year already. While there's lots of excitement generated by the ROY race, the truth is that only a small handful of rookies make any real impact in the win-loss column for teams.
But by their sophomore year, we can start to expect to see a bigger impact, and we have a stellar group of sophomores.
Let's rank them from 1 to 10 in terms of what we should expect this season.
At least two players, perhaps more, looking like they will be potential All-Stars this season and perhaps superstars before too long.
At the top for me is Karl Anthony-Towns. At this point, the question doesn't seem to be whether he's the best player in this class. The question is just how high he'll climb among the rankings of all players in the next few seasons. I think Towns has the potential to be a top-five player someday. Maybe top two.
Everything we saw in Minnesota last season points to him potentially surpassing Anthony Davis as the top big man in the league.
I'm assuming he's No. 1 on your board as well, Kevin. What should we expect from him in Year 2?
Pelton: I fear setting the bar too high for Towns' second season, which is unfair to someone who won't turn 21 until November. So let's talk about hopes rather than expectations.
I hope Towns will be a defensive anchor in Tom Thibodeau's system despite nominally playing power forward in all likelihood. I hope that and a more competitive Timberwolves team are enough to earn All-Star consideration. And as an observer I hope we get to see Towns in the playoffs, which would be a blast.
The one thing I'll say I expect is that casual fans will fall in love with Towns' game on Christmas Day, when Minnesota will play Oklahoma City on ESPN.
Now things get more interesting. Who's No. 2 for you?
Ford: I've been a Kristaps Porzingis fan since before the draft and everything he did in New York last year makes me think he'll become a perennial All-Star. As he gets stronger and improves his jump shot, I think he's going to be a devastating NBA big man.
I hesitate a bit this season given all of the Knicks' summer additions. With Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Courtney Lee and Brandon Jennings in the fold, I wonder if he'll have as many opportunities as he did last season -- especially offensively. I think he'll get the minutes, but it might be harder for him to be the Knicks' No. 2 guy.
Then again, I think Porzingis is so good that even next year he might already be better than all four.
What do you think? I have a feeling you're bullish on a different international player at No. 2.
Pelton: Yeah, I had Nikola Jokic here the last time we did this exercise, and nothing that has happened since has changed my mind. While it hasn't been a great Olympics overall for Jokic, who has struggled with foul trouble at times and is playing behind former NBA center Miroslav Raduljica, watching him rain fire on a helpless U.S. defense showed a glimpse of his tantalizing skills.
There are good reasons to believe that Porzingis is only scratching the surface of his potential: He's 21 and the adjustment to the NBA (and in particular the NBA 3-point line) is often difficult for first-year international players.
Here's the thing, though: All of that applies to Jokic too, and he was by many all-in-one measures the better player as a rookie. It will be interesting to see how Michael Malone handles having Jokic and a healthy Jusuf Nurkic this season, but whatever the solution it shouldn't be to take minutes away from Jokic.
Ford: I see the appeal of Jokic both statistically and on the court. And the performance against the U.S. was impressive (though he's not the only one shredding Team USA's defense this summer). He's definitely in my top five.
But I'm going to go with the Suns' Devin Booker here. He was one of the youngest rookies in the league last year. His skill set as a ball handler and a passer are developing nicely. His work ethic is outstanding. And he can really, really shoot the basketball. I see a lot of Klay Thompson in Booker and given how well he played post All-Star break, I think he's in for a breakout sophomore season.
Pelton: If not second, Porzingis has to be third. My concern with the Knicks' offseason is more that bringing in Noah and Porzingis' former Sevilla teammate Willy Hernangomez seems to block Porzingis' path to center, where I think he can be a devastating offensive force. But given Noah's history of injuries, Porizingis may end up seeing minutes there, and he's pretty good at power forward too.
Who's fourth for you?
Ford: Jokic for me. And I'm tempted to go with several guards who might be able to take big leaps in Year 2, but for all the reasons you stated, I think Jokic is the safest pick here.
You had D'Angelo Russell at No. 4 at the end of the season. Is he still No. 4 for you now?
Pelton: Since we're talking strictly about performance next season and not looking that far ahead, I'm going to go in a different direction.
After the three top finishers for Rookie of the Year, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson might have been the next-best rookie last season because of his defensive value. When he was on the court, Hollis-Jefferson ranked fourth among rookies who averaged at least 15 minutes per game in ESPN's real plus-minus behind the three players ahead of him on this list.
Hollis-Jefferson missed 50 games because of a fractured ankle, but is fully recovered now and should benefit offensively from the Nets upgrading at point guard with the addition of Jeremy Lin.
Who rounds out your top five?
Ford: I'm having a hard time separating the pack after those four. Jefferson, along with the Pacers' Myles Turner, the Heat's Justise Winslow, the Nuggets' Emmanuel Mudiay and Russell are all in the running for me. I could make a case for each of them having a breakout season and in all five cases, they should be playing significant minutes for their team.
Hollis-Jefferson is a defensive monster. So is Winslow and his offensive output should increase now that Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng are both gone. Mudiay and Russell showed the obvious growing pains that accompany rookie point guards, but I expect to see major improvements for both of them this season.
And Turner was a real surprise for me last year with how quickly he adapted to the NBA. His performance during the playoffs, especially as a shot-blocker, was wowing. If I'm forced to pick from that group, I think I'd lean Turner.
How about you, Kevin?
Pelton: I'm going to stick with lower-upside veterans and go with Winslow's Miami teammate Josh Richardson. After he shot a respectable 37.0 percent on 3-pointers in the playoffs, Richardson's second-half shooting surge looks less like a fluke, and he was effective running the point during a brief three-game cameo at the Orlando Pro Summer League. Add that to Richardson's proven defensive aptitude and he looks like a league-average player or better.
With Wade and Joe Johnson heading elsewhere, it's possible that Richardson could be the Heat's best option at shooting guard next to Goran Dragic as well as in the mix for minutes behind Dragic, so I think he'll make a big impact in Year 2.
Ford: Here's my next five:
6. Emmanuel Mudiay
7. Justise Winslow
8. D'Angelo Russell
9. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
10. Josh Richardson
I'm a bit of a Mudiay homer. He was terrible the first half of the season but came on late. If he can improve his shot selection and cut down on turnovers, I think he still has a really high ceiling. He also should get plenty of minutes in Denver this year.
Winslow was a terrific defender as a rookie and now he'll get more of an offensive opportunity now. Russell was much better during the second half of the season for the Lakers and should also get more opportunities to score and create. Hollis-Jefferson is a jump shot away from being a dominant two-way player, and I agree that Richardson has a shot to have a breakout year with Wade gone.
I didn't even mention Utah's Trey Lyles, the Sixers' Jahlil Okafor, the Pistons' Stanley Johnson and the Celtics' Terry Rozier, who had a bit of a coming-out party in the summer league. It's a pretty loaded class.
Pelton: I've got:
6. Devin Booker
7. D'Angelo Russell
8. Justise Winslow
9. Myles Turner
10. Emmanuel Mudiay
I'd put Booker and Russell in a similar category. I think both are likely to be good offensive players but their poor defense will limit their value. Booker may have to defend small forwards on a regular basis next season playing alongside Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight, and Russell got torched in summer league, as he did during the regular season.
Winslow is the opposite; I might move him up to sixth if Chris Bosh doesn't return and he gets to play power forward. Otherwise, I think his non-shooting is too much of an issue at small forward.
Turner is also going to be asked to do a lot anchoring the Pacers' defense.
1. Towns
2. Porzingis
3. Booker
4. Jokic
5. Turner
6. Mudiay
7. Winslow
8. Russell
9. RHJ
10. Josh Richardson
1. Towns
2. Jokic
3. Porzingis
4. RHJ
5. Josh Richardson
6. Booker
7. Russell
8. Winslow
9. Turner
10. Mudiay
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