NBA Draft and NCAA Basketball

[jcsunsfan]

Have we ever won a lottery top 3 pick? It would be a great time to do it.

I think McDonough's BB would be Doncic, Young, Ayton, Jackson, Bamba / Trade

You can't get too cute with this. You don't want to trade down and then have someone else trade up in front of you and get your guy. I think Doncic is at the the top of the Suns board followed by Ayton and then Trae.

Doncic scares me to death. I think he is the biggest potential bust. His shooting averages are not so hot lately. He is a big guy who can play pg but is a liability on defense, especially at the pg spot. I would love to end up with Young and Jackson or Bamba somehow. I would trade lots of future picks etc to make it happen.

[bwgood77]

Have we ever won a lottery top 3 pick? It would be a great time to do it.

I think McDonough's BB would be Doncic, Young, Ayton, Jackson, Bamba / Trade

You can't get too cute with this. You don't want to trade down and then have someone else trade up in front of you and get your guy. I think Doncic is at the the top of the Suns board followed by Ayton and then Trae.

Doncic scares me to death. I think he is the biggest potential bust. His shooting averages are not so hot lately. He is a big guy who can play pg but is a liability on defense, especially at the pg spot. I would love to end up with Young and Jackson or Bamba somehow. I would trade lots of future picks etc to make it happen.

I don't think Doncic is as bad as defender as you think. He'd probably be better than Young on that end as well as Booker. He's a good team defender though and that is probably more important these days with all the switching.

For some reason though, I don't think Doncic is on top of McD's board. I wouldn't be surprised if he's not in his top few.

[bwgood77]

Let's say a team has the No. 1 pick in the 2018 NBA Draft. That team has decided it needs a point guard. Maybe that team is the Phoenix Suns, who realize that Brandon Knight's contract only has two more years left on it, and Tyler Ulis would work as the perfect backup point guard. Or maybe that team is the Orlando Magic, who realize Elfrid Payton will never take them to the promised land.

Let's say that team says, "Hell, what do we got to lose?" And they take Oklahoma's wunderkind freshman Trae Young with the No. 1 overall pick, despite this being a draft that is absolutely stacked at the top. They know he's small. They know he turns the ball over. They know he wasn't even considered a top-20 recruit coming into college. And yet they look at his numbers – he's leading college basketball in points and assists, something that's never been done before – and figure he's worth it.

How would you judge the team that takes Trae Young with the No. 1 overall pick?

I would applaud the chutzpah. It would take brass balls and big-time belief to pick Young over players like Marvin Bagley II, or Luka Doncic, or DeAndre Ayton – players who feel like much more of a guarantee for NBA success. And yet look what Trae Young has done in his short Oklahoma career. It's not just the numbers, or the fact he's turned what was an 11-win Oklahoma team a year ago into a team with Final Four potential. It's the fact he's captured the American sporting imagination in a way that we rarely see out of a collegiate player. I mean, we haven't seen this sort of fascination with a collegiate player since, what, Jimmer Fredette?

That likable, Steph Curry 2.0 brand has some currency in the NBA.

There is a mock draft later down the page here.. https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-mock-draft-2018-how-high-could-trae-young-be-drafted-no-1s-a-real-possibility/

[bwgood77]

Another good article with some number breakdowns on Young and Doncic https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/1/9/16866612/luka-doncic-trae-young-steph-curry-generation

Their offensive numbers in the pick-and-roll this season (via Synergy Sports) are incredible:

Player Efficiency As a Ball-handler in the Pick-and-Roll

Player Possessions Points Per Possession Percentile

Doncic 299 1.258 97th
Young 280 1.084 84th

Includes points generated from assists

A player with their skill sets doesn’t have to dominate the ball, either. Doncic thrived next to Dragic at EuroBasket. He could run off screens and occupy defensive attention when he was off the ball, and Slovenia ran multiple pick-and-rolls over the course of the possession until it found a crack in the defense. Slovenia didn’t have the size of teams like France and Spain, who had NBA players in almost every spot in their rotation, but its offense was so efficient that it didn’t matter.

It’s hard to see either Young or Doncic being a bust at the next level. They are too skilled, and their abilities are too valuable given the way the game is played these days. Shooters who can make plays off the dribble are at a premium in a spread pick-and-roll offense, which almost every team in the league runs. Even if they start their NBA careers in smaller offensive roles than they currently have, they will still be able to threaten defenses without the ball in their hands. If anything, playing with more offensive threats around them should make their lives easier. Neither player gets many open shots in his current role.

[Bogyo]

Another good article with some number breakdowns on Young and Doncic https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/1/9/16866612/luka-doncic-trae-young-steph-curry-generation

Their offensive numbers in the pick-and-roll this season (via Synergy Sports) are incredible:

Player Efficiency As a Ball-handler in the Pick-and-Roll

Player Possessions Points Per Possession Percentile

Doncic 299 1.258 97th
Young 280 1.084 84th

Includes points generated from assists

A player with their skill sets doesn’t have to dominate the ball, either. Doncic thrived next to Dragic at EuroBasket. He could run off screens and occupy defensive attention when he was off the ball, and Slovenia ran multiple pick-and-rolls over the course of the possession until it found a crack in the defense. Slovenia didn’t have the size of teams like France and Spain, who had NBA players in almost every spot in their rotation, but its offense was so efficient that it didn’t matter.

It’s hard to see either Young or Doncic being a bust at the next level. They are too skilled, and their abilities are too valuable given the way the game is played these days. Shooters who can make plays off the dribble are at a premium in a spread pick-and-roll offense, which almost every team in the league runs. Even if they start their NBA careers in smaller offensive roles than they currently have, they will still be able to threaten defenses without the ball in their hands. If anything, playing with more offensive threats around them should make their lives easier. Neither player gets many open shots in his current role.

I'd be happy with either at No3. In this draft I'd be scared to death to pick at No1.

[jcsunsfan]

Another good article with some number breakdowns on Young and Doncic https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/1/9/16866612/luka-doncic-trae-young-steph-curry-generation

Their offensive numbers in the pick-and-roll this season (via Synergy Sports) are incredible:

Player Efficiency As a Ball-handler in the Pick-and-Roll

Player Possessions Points Per Possession Percentile

Doncic 299 1.258 97th
Young 280 1.084 84th

Includes points generated from assists

A player with their skill sets doesn’t have to dominate the ball, either. Doncic thrived next to Dragic at EuroBasket. He could run off screens and occupy defensive attention when he was off the ball, and Slovenia ran multiple pick-and-rolls over the course of the possession until it found a crack in the defense. Slovenia didn’t have the size of teams like France and Spain, who had NBA players in almost every spot in their rotation, but its offense was so efficient that it didn’t matter.

It’s hard to see either Young or Doncic being a bust at the next level. They are too skilled, and their abilities are too valuable given the way the game is played these days. Shooters who can make plays off the dribble are at a premium in a spread pick-and-roll offense, which almost every team in the league runs. Even if they start their NBA careers in smaller offensive roles than they currently have, they will still be able to threaten defenses without the ball in their hands. If anything, playing with more offensive threats around them should make their lives easier. Neither player gets many open shots in his current role.

Helpful article. Thanks. I wonder how recent those stats are. I do think that there is a line that people keep repeating about Young not being athletic. He is very fast. He also is faster with the ball that about anyone else I have ever seen. Jumping seems to be the only measure of athleticism any more.

[Blonde]

I don't believe we will get the number one pick so I have not spent too much time thinking about Doncic, but
I go back and forth between wondering if he would be a great fit or terrible fit with this team.

I think his best role is playing the Harden role next to a defensive PG, which is the same role Booker projects to be. We could run both of them as our starting backcourt and just let them take turns intiating offense. They'd kill smaller guards in the post and shooting over them, but also get burned trying to keep up with them on the other end. I still think I'd take Doncic first overall due to his advanced offensive skillset, even with the defensive worries. The shooting, creation, pick and roll game, and size are all incredible.

A lot of people lament losing Dragic and how he would be such a great fit next to Booker. Well, Doncic looks to me like a bigger, better version of Dragic, who won't take until his late 20s to become a good starter and who won't whine about his role (hopefully).

Current tiers:

Doncic

Ayton
Porter
Young

Bagley

Jackson
Bridges
Bridges
Bamba
Sexton
Carter

Top 11 seems pretty set in stone

[bwgood77]

I don't believe we will get the number one pick so I have not spent too much time thinking about Doncic, but
I go back and forth between wondering if he would be a great fit or terrible fit with this team.

I think his best role is playing the Harden role next to a defensive PG, which is the same role Booker projects to be. We could run both of them as our starting backcourt and just let them take turns intiating offense. They'd kill smaller guards in the post and shooting over them, but also get burned trying to keep up with them on the other end. I still think I'd take Doncic first overall due to his advanced offensive skillset, even with the defensive worries. The shooting, creation, pick and roll game, and size are all incredible.

A lot of people lament losing Dragic and how he would be such a great fit next to Booker. Well, Doncic looks to me like a bigger, better version of Dragic, who won't take until his late 20s to become a good starter and who won't whine about his role (hopefully).

Current tiers:

Doncic

Ayton
Porter
Young

Bagley

Jackson
Bridges
Bridges
Bamba
Sexton
Carter

Top 11 seems pretty set in stone

It's funny reading your first two paragraphs I was about to say Booker and Doncic would be a great backcourt and use the Dragic/Doncic dominating eurobasket despite playing against bigger teams in France and Spain with nba players at every position as an example.

Dragic is obviously a great pick n roll player and ball handler, but I think Booker can get there as well. I think Doncic is already there.

I don't think we'll end up with Doncic though because for some reason I think if we end up at 1 McD would take Ayton or Bagley or something.

[bwgood77]

Didn't realize Shai had this long of wingspan. I just noticed this player comparison feature on tankathon...

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?preset=top-pg


Also, this guy has the best strength to weakness ratio I've seen there..

http://www.tankathon.com/players/mikal-bridges

This one, not so good..

http://www.tankathon.com/players/troy-brown

or this one

http://www.tankathon.com/players/collin-sexton

[Bogyo]

I think with Doncic we would have "point Booker x 2" - the only thing is, I have no idea if thats a really good thing or a really bad.
Both are really smart players, and could make it work, like CP and Harden (I know, different type players, just as being ball dominant guards), or it could fall apart as the dual-pg stuff we tried to pull with other guys.
Defense would be a problem against quicker pgs, but size advantage could take some of that away with good, smart individual and team defense (ie: staying off half step, so it's not as easy to drive by for the quicker, smaller pgs, and steering them into a rim protector if they do get by our guards. Reacting quickly and challenging shots of those shorter/quicker guards if they decide to shoot instead of driveing, it's harder for them to shoot over a defender who is 2-4 inches taller than them).
Offense could be a joy to watch when it's clicking, and both could average about 5 assists per game, or one of them could be left out cold and dry (remember Dragic camping in the corner for about a year and getting tired of it?).

[bwgood77]

I think with Doncic we would have "point Booker x 2" - the only thing is, I have no idea if thats a really good thing or a really bad.
Both are really smart players, and could make it work, like CP and Harden (I know, different type players, just as being ball dominant guards), or it could fall apart as the dual-pg stuff we tried to pull with other guys.
Defense would be a problem against quicker pgs, but size advantage could take some of that away with good, smart individual and team defense (ie: staying off half step, so it's not as easy to drive by for the quicker, smaller pgs, and steering them into a rim protector if they do get by our guards. Reacting quickly and challenging shots of those shorter/quicker guards if they decide to shoot instead of driveing, it's harder for them to shoot over a defender who is 2-4 inches taller than them).
Offense could be a joy to watch when it's clicking, and both could average about 5 assists per game, or one of them could be left out cold and dry (remember Dragic camping in the corner for about a year and getting tired of it?).

We've done it a lot with a lot of success in the past. I mean Dragic and Bledsoe in recent memory but even did it much better back in the days when we had KJ and Hornacek or KJ/Kidd or even backcourt 2000 with Kidd and Hardaway for a brief time.

Check out this box score, particularly the assists by each Suns player. https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/198811160PHO.html I think the more playmakers you have the better. And I don't really think Booker should be a full time point anyway. He's much better off ball, at least at this point, despite his recent 10 assist game.

[sunsbg]

Have we ever won a lottery top 3 pick? It would be a great time to do it.

I think McDonough's BB would be Doncic, Young, Ayton, Jackson, Bamba / Trade

You can't get too cute with this. You don't want to trade down and then have someone else trade up in front of you and get your guy. I think Doncic is at the the top of the Suns board followed by Ayton and then Trae.

Doncic scares me to death. I think he is the biggest potential bust. His shooting averages are not so hot lately. He is a big guy who can play pg but is a liability on defense, especially at the pg spot. I would love to end up with Young and Jackson or Bamba somehow. I would trade lots of future picks etc to make it happen.

I basically disagree with every sentence of this paragraph. Doncic biggest bust potential ? Have you seen him outside of highlight clips ? He already has an established veteran-like game, basically the opposite of Josh, a great shooting form, so don't worry about that at all. You are scared by his defense, but not by Young's ? If Booker and Doncic can't co-exist, what about Young, who is shooting the ball whenever he likes ? Doncic atleast can play a SF, Young can't. Bamba is considered the biggest bust risk by many. Jackson looks like a role player.

[bwgood77]

Have we ever won a lottery top 3 pick? It would be a great time to do it.

I think McDonough's BB would be Doncic, Young, Ayton, Jackson, Bamba / Trade

You can't get too cute with this. You don't want to trade down and then have someone else trade up in front of you and get your guy. I think Doncic is at the the top of the Suns board followed by Ayton and then Trae.

Doncic scares me to death. I think he is the biggest potential bust. His shooting averages are not so hot lately. He is a big guy who can play pg but is a liability on defense, especially at the pg spot. I would love to end up with Young and Jackson or Bamba somehow. I would trade lots of future picks etc to make it happen.

I basically disagree with every sentence of this paragraph. Doncic biggest bust potential ? Have you seen him outside of highlight clips ? He already has an established veteran-like game, basically the opposite of Josh, a great shooting form, so don't worry about that at all. You are scared by his defense, but not by Young's ? If Booker and Doncic can't co-exist, what about Young, who is shooting the ball whenever he likes ? Doncic atleast can play a SF, Young can't. Bamba is considered the biggest bust risk by many. Jackson looks like a role player.

I think Doncic is easily the guy most likely to hit the ground running immediately...and fit seamlessly into an offense and immediately make a team better. I think Young, just due to his shooting and passing, should but last year's pg class has really struggled (though none could shoot like Young could...and Lonzo's passing has translated well).

The bigs..who knows? Porter a huge question mark though normally you'd think he would translate well too.

Bagley I have no idea. I keep thinking of Jackson when I think of Bagley's free throw shooting. If Bagley can never shoot it's just tough to know, particularly if he can't defend 5s. I think of him just as a finisher and rebounder who can't shoot or defend...but a hard worker like Josh....just doesn't seem the right fit for us.

[sunsbg]

You can't get too cute with this. You don't want to trade down and then have someone else trade up in front of you and get your guy. I think Doncic is at the the top of the Suns board followed by Ayton and then Trae.

Doncic scares me to death. I think he is the biggest potential bust. His shooting averages are not so hot lately. He is a big guy who can play pg but is a liability on defense, especially at the pg spot. I would love to end up with Young and Jackson or Bamba somehow. I would trade lots of future picks etc to make it happen.

I basically disagree with every sentence of this paragraph. Doncic biggest bust potential ? Have you seen him outside of highlight clips ? He already has an established veteran-like game, basically the opposite of Josh, a great shooting form, so don't worry about that at all. You are scared by his defense, but not by Young's ? If Booker and Doncic can't co-exist, what about Young, who is shooting the ball whenever he likes ? Doncic atleast can play a SF, Young can't. Bamba is considered the biggest bust risk by many. Jackson looks like a role player.

I think Doncic is easily the guy most likely to hit the ground running immediately...and fit seamlessly into an offense and immediately make a team better. I think Young, just due to his shooting and passing, should but last year's pg class has really struggled (though none could shoot like Young could...and Lonzo's passing has translated well).

The bigs..who knows? Porter a huge question mark though normally you'd think he would translate well too.

Bagley I have no idea. I keep thinking of Jackson when I think of Bagley's free throw shooting. If Bagley can never shoot it's just tough to know, particularly if he can't defend 5s. I think of him just as a finisher and rebounder who can't shoot or defend...but a hard worker like Josh....just doesn't seem the right fit for us.

OK, I was just surprised someone would consider Doncic such a big risk. I would actually be very happy with Young and a rim protector like Bamba or Jackson, which is mandatory in case a 6'2" bad defense PG is drafted.
I see Bagley struggling early similarly to Josh as his game mostly relies on athleticism too. This doesn't mean he will not end as the best player though. Amare had no shot in his rookie year, but became a pretty good later, so I would not write-off Bagley to get one too.

[Blonde]

Bagley gets the Amare comp a lot. He'll have to show a lot more power and have great hands before I can agree with that. For now I see him as an athletic Zach Randolph, which would still be a very good player. Don't like the fit on our team at all however.

[bwgood77]

Bagley gets the Amare comp a lot. He'll have to show a lot more power and have great hands before I can agree with that. For now I see him as an athletic Zach Randolph, which would still be a very good player. Don't like the fit on our team at all however.

That's EXACTLY what I was thinking when I was typing my last post thinking of a scorer/rebounder around the rim...Zach Randolph popped into my head, but yeah, being a little less athletic, I didn't mention him.

[Blonde]

Bagley gets the Amare comp a lot. He'll have to show a lot more power and have great hands before I can agree with that. For now I see him as an athletic Zach Randolph, which would still be a very good player. Don't like the fit on our team at all however.

That's EXACTLY what I was thinking when I was typing my last post thinking of a scorer/rebounder around the rim...Zach Randolph popped into my head, but yeah, being a little less athletic, I didn't mention him.

Sounds like we're on the same page for a lot of these prospects

[Mulhollanddrive]

Draft Ranking @ ESPN and NBAdraft and SI (rankings based on feedback from professional scouts):

Doncic - 1, 6, 2
Ayton - 2, 1, 1
Bamba - 3, 7, 4
Bagley - 4, 2, 3
Jackson - 5, 4, 7
Porter - 6, 3, 5
Young - 7, 5, 6

[Bogyo]

Draft Ranking @ ESPN and NBAdraft and SI (rankings based on feedback from professional scouts):

Doncic - 1, 6, 2
Ayton - 2, 1, 1
Bamba - 3, 7, 4
Bagley - 4, 2, 3
Jackson - 5, 4, 7
Porter - 6, 3, 5
Young - 7, 5, 6

I wonder how this will change in March, and during the workouts.
By this the draft order would be Ayton, Doncic, Bagley, Bamba/Porter, Jackson, Young?
Young is too low. No way he gets by the 5th pick.

[JMac1]

NBADraft.Net has us taking Young.

I’m just hoping the tank doesn’t break down and we get Young. I’m cool with all of the bigs, however, Young is still my guy.

Draft young
Pray JJ keeps developing and we will have a triumvirate of
Young
Booker
JJ.....