The Draft Thread: Ayton Vs Doncic 1

[darealjuice]

I suppose when people stop assuming Ayton already has a 3PT shot in his arsenal. If we're talking shooting, Luka is far further advanced from a developed shot from all levels than Ayton. So if we're not going to expect Doncic to raise his 3pt% by 10%, we shouldn't do the same for Ayton.

Regarding defense in the NBA, it's definitely going to be tougher but there's also notably more spacing for him to work. Someone who knows how to use a screen well to create space will bring that every game but he may only encounter legit high level defenders that would shut him down every so few games.

I would say it's pretty hypocritical to counter perceived hyperbole on Ayton's shooting ability with your own hyperbole. Why does Ayton even come into the conversation? His shooting has nothing to do with Luka's, and Ayton should not be your benchmark for the shooting ability of a guard.

I've already said that I expect his shooting to improve, so rest easy everyone pointing out that Goran's did, he'll have less shots late in the clock, and/or his role will be more off-ball. My point is that it's getting frustrating to see the people nitpicking the **** out of Ayton's flaws on defense are the ones writing off Luka's poor on-ball defense as unimportant because he's a guard and making every excuse under the Sun for his shooting percentages (legitimate or not).

[bhawk]

Generational? He may not even be the best big man in this class...

https://www.thestepien.com/2018/04/19/offensive-upside-deandre-ayton-vs-marvin-bagley/

Great point, I think Bagley will be REALLY good too. Like REALLY, REALLY good. Bagley's second jump is Shawn Marion-eske. Love him and if Ayton wasn't in this draft, the Doncic debate would be just as strong - Bagley vs. Doncic.

I think it shows how lucky we are to have the 1st pick in such a deep, deep draft like this 2018. I really want 2 picks in the top ten. Give me Ayton and Trae Young and call it a championship!

The only knock on Bagley that I noticed, is his poor shooting. A fairly strong leading indicator of NBA shooting is a players FT% and Bagley is not good from the FT line. I fear that he may never develop a reliable jump shot.

Both players pass the eye test and had GREAT college careers. But Ayton wins vs. Bagley based on his size, athleticism, position and his phenomenal jump shot and ability to score from both the inside and outside.

Many, many, many smarter minds than mine have Ayton #1 over Doncic and Bagley. I think it is beacuse Ayton has the higher ceiling and more potential. All players will be great... but sadly we can only have one.

I really respect the Stepien's coverage but I have to disagree with them on Ayton. I've been on the Doncic train for months and I really like bigs like Carter and JJJ and kind of like Bagley but I went back and watched more Ayton and to me it's no question that Ayton is the best big man prospect in this draft. The more I watch Ayton the more I like him and while I still prefer Doncic it's close and I'll be very happy with either guy.

I'll have to re-read the Ayton coverage, but I agree that they are unfairly down on Ayton in comparison to other big men. Let's give the dude MORE credit for developing a jump shot and hitting a VERY high % turn-arounds. Ayton is young, didn't have the best coaching and he did improve over the season. Carter looks amazing. I would love him. Bagley is awesome. Bamba... not sold, but me is mad smart and articulate.

To me, and many other professional scouts who are not on Stepien, Ayton will be the best player out of this draft class.

[Waylay13]

The game did change, because you dont have Big men like you used to. We had a good 6 years with no real dominant Big men coming from college. The few that did dominated, but ended up getting injured (Oden), but now you have a resurgence of them again, because that talent is there. Guys like AD and KAT and Embiid and even Cousins dominate teams on offense, and teams really dont have many ways to stop them. The reason that teams have gone small at C is because they have to. If you cant have a dominant force at C, then you have a choice of running out a ho-hum C (Guys like Gortat) or you can go with a smaller 3 point shooter to try to spread the floor. But its rare on defense that those smaller guys can do anything to that Dominant C. Sure, you can mention Tucker or Green, but lets not act like they arnt very very unique in this league and are top tier defenders. To be a modern day big, you not only have to have range, but have to be quick and nimble. Thats the reason why other dominant bigs have gone by the wayside. We arnt talking about back to the basket, backing down opponents like Hibbert or Bynum was, But guys like Ayton who have range but also have the speed and quickness to lead on a fast break, or get down the court before the other team scores, nullifying your effect on that side.

Kerrsed, while I can agree there has been a drop in talent at center I wonder how much the change is rules and analytics have had to do with the change of the center in current NBA. Players like Cousins have been putting up really good stats but their teams havent been winning. Rule changes like the Barkley rule and hand checking rules meant to speed up the game have they also had the affect of lowering the value of the 2pt shot and raising the 3pt shot to the point that big men impact is minimized.

[JMac1]

If Doncic was a superior athlete. He'd be one of the best prospects ever, but he isn't and he will be limited by his lack of athleticism.

In short. You can learn cerebral things that are necessary to advance in basketball, but you don't learn athleticism. If Ayton was all athlete, then he'd go 15th like Giannis or 27th like Gobert, but he isn't just all athletic potential.

I hope I cleared that up for you as an American coach and former athlete.

I did read your whole post and we basically agree on 99% of what was said. But i singled out your last statement because i have a feeling you still don't believe that a person can improve when it comes to athleticism.
When i was 17-18yo i couldn't even touch the rim. I started working out like a mad man for the next few years and then i could easily dunk and run faster plus i was way more agile. And i don't know why people think Doncic can't improve aswell. He can build up his muscles just as well as gain quickness if he works in that area. He is not your average athlete or someone who was born without any athletic abilities. The way i see it, Ayton was busy building up his body while Doncic was doing other things.

I thought I mentioned you could go from a 22 inch vertical to a 28 inch vertical, but you can't go from 22 inches to 48 inches unless you are starting at 40 inches.

You can definitely improve, but super athletes are born, not made.

[Saberestar]

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[Saberestar]

Scott Bordow.
NBA mock draft 3.0

New NBA draft pick for Phoenix Suns in first round after combine.

1. Suns (21-61): C Deandre Ayton, 7-0, 260, Arizona.

16. Suns (21-61) via Heat: SG Lonnie Walker, SG, 6-4, 190, Miami.

McDonough has said if the Suns draft a center with their No. 1 pick they likely would look for backcourt help at No. 16.
The problem: The top three point guards are off the board, so Phoenix can either reach, go with a player like Walker, who has a long way to go, both in terms of his defense and understanding of the game, or move the pick.
Don't be surprised if there's a trade here.

https://amp.azcentral.com/amp/633657002?__twitter_impression=true

[JMac1]

Great point, I think Bagley will be REALLY good too. Like REALLY, REALLY good. Bagley's second jump is Shawn Marion-eske. Love him and if Ayton wasn't in this draft, the Doncic debate would be just as strong - Bagley vs. Doncic.

I think it shows how lucky we are to have the 1st pick in such a deep, deep draft like this 2018. I really want 2 picks in the top ten. Give me Ayton and Trae Young and call it a championship!

The only knock on Bagley that I noticed, is his poor shooting. A fairly strong leading indicator of NBA shooting is a players FT% and Bagley is not good from the FT line. I fear that he may never develop a reliable jump shot.

Both players pass the eye test and had GREAT college careers. But Ayton wins vs. Bagley based on his size, athleticism, position and his phenomenal jump shot and ability to score from both the inside and outside.

Many, many, many smarter minds than mine have Ayton #1 over Doncic and Bagley. I think it is beacuse Ayton has the higher ceiling and more potential. All players will be great... but sadly we can only have one.

I really respect the Stepien's coverage but I have to disagree with them on Ayton. I've been on the Doncic train for months and I really like bigs like Carter and JJJ and kind of like Bagley but I went back and watched more Ayton and to me it's no question that Ayton is the best big man prospect in this draft. The more I watch Ayton the more I like him and while I still prefer Doncic it's close and I'll be very happy with either guy.

I'll have to re-read the Ayton coverage, but I agree that they are unfairly down on Ayton in comparison to other big men. Let's give the dude MORE credit for developing a jump shot and hitting a VERY high % turn-arounds. Ayton is young, didn't have the best coaching and he did improve over the season. Carter looks amazing. I would love him. Bagley is awesome. Bamba... not sold, but me is mad smart and articulate.

To me, and many other professional scouts who are not on Stepien, Ayton will be the best player out of this draft class.

You'd swear Ayton put up like Alex Len type stats 9.6 and 7.8 rebs or something along those lines and all of his metrics were advanced stats alas JJJ and people could refute those because its still kind presumptuous. And you could assume that Ayton was an undersize tweener like Bagley has been mentioned to be or just all athlete like Zack Lavine.

I really don't get it. Monster size. Monster stats. Monster skill. Monster athlete. Great shooting. Yet ?!?

I am really starting to believe people just don't want the Suns to have him because of the Phoenix Suns bias. Please Suns don't pick him to add with Booker and a good looking JJ, that could be doom for the Lakers and all other teams. Your fan base isn't big enough to handle a dynamic talent like that.

I swear, if we don't pick Ayton over a really good player that is not an elite shooter or elite athlete or has elite size....only elite BBIQ, we are the dumbest mutha **** on this planet and deserve to go another 50 years without a top pick or championship.

[Archx]

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At this point i'm actually afraid what will happen if they draft Doncic before Ayton. People of Arizona may boo him out of the town... If they really want Ayton that much, just let everyone know "that's our guy" and get on with it. It's no fun playing in a hostile environment especially if that is also your home team.

[Bob8]

Great point, I think Bagley will be REALLY good too. Like REALLY, REALLY good. Bagley's second jump is Shawn Marion-eske. Love him and if Ayton wasn't in this draft, the Doncic debate would be just as strong - Bagley vs. Doncic.

I think it shows how lucky we are to have the 1st pick in such a deep, deep draft like this 2018. I really want 2 picks in the top ten. Give me Ayton and Trae Young and call it a championship!

The only knock on Bagley that I noticed, is his poor shooting. A fairly strong leading indicator of NBA shooting is a players FT% and Bagley is not good from the FT line. I fear that he may never develop a reliable jump shot.

Both players pass the eye test and had GREAT college careers. But Ayton wins vs. Bagley based on his size, athleticism, position and his phenomenal jump shot and ability to score from both the inside and outside.

Many, many, many smarter minds than mine have Ayton #1 over Doncic and Bagley. I think it is beacuse Ayton has the higher ceiling and more potential. All players will be great... but sadly we can only have one.

I really respect the Stepien's coverage but I have to disagree with them on Ayton. I've been on the Doncic train for months and I really like bigs like Carter and JJJ and kind of like Bagley but I went back and watched more Ayton and to me it's no question that Ayton is the best big man prospect in this draft. The more I watch Ayton the more I like him and while I still prefer Doncic it's close and I'll be very happy with either guy.

I'll have to re-read the Ayton coverage, but I agree that they are unfairly down on Ayton in comparison to other big men. Let's give the dude MORE credit for developing a jump shot and hitting a VERY high % turn-arounds. Ayton is young, didn't have the best coaching and he did improve over the season. Carter looks amazing. I would love him. Bagley is awesome. Bamba... not sold, but me is mad smart and articulate.

To me, and many other professional scouts who are not on Stepien, Ayton will be the best player out of this draft class.

I don't know what you mean by professional scouts, but mocks are not that one-sided.

https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2018/5/21/17375138/luka-doncic-nba-draft-2018-euroleague-final-four-stats-video

https://thebiglead.com/2018/05/21/luka-doncic-is-the-best-player-in-the-2018-nba-draft-and-its-not-close/

http://nbadraft.theringer.com/

and then you have some mocks that have Ayton as first pick, but are saying Luka is the best prospect.

like,

SEAN BUSH: In my opinion, Luka Doncic is the top prospect in this class. The Atlanta Hawks would be thrilled to see him fall to third in this scenario given the fact that they would likely consider taking him first overall. The Hawks desperately need an offensive playmaker and Doncic fits the bill.

Their young prospects like John Collins and Taurean Prince would benefit greatly from Doncic’s high basketball IQ and ability to see the floor. The pick-and-roll between Doncic and Collins could be potentially devastating for other teams. Luka Doncic would be the face of a newly transitioning franchise.

[jcsunsfan]

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At this point i'm actually afraid what will happen if they draft Doncic before Ayton. People of Arizona may boo him out of the town... If they really want Ayton that much, just let everyone know "that's our guy" and get on with it. It's no fun playing in a hostile environment especially if that is also your home team.

Cmon man, this isn't Philly.

After the intitial draft people will love him. People booed Dan Majerle at the draft, people booed Steve Nash at the draft, but fell in love with both fairly quickly.

And if Ayton outperforms Doncic, they will still cheer Doncic. It's not his fault. But they will ride McD out of town on a rail.

[Villalobos]

At this point i'm actually afraid what will happen if they draft Doncic before Ayton. People of Arizona may boo him out of the town... If they really want Ayton that much, just let everyone know "that's our guy" and get on with it. It's no fun playing in a hostile environment especially if that is also your home team.

[Saberestar]

And this is another poll from the day after the lottery:

Read on Twitter

[Villalobos]

Suns should definitely base their pick on twitter polls.

[Revived]

Read on Twitter

At this point i'm actually afraid what will happen if they draft Doncic before Ayton. People of Arizona may boo him out of the town... If they really want Ayton that much, just let everyone know "that's our guy" and get on with it. It's no fun playing in a hostile environment especially if that is also your home team.

You mean like when Steve Nash got booed? Or when another Euro prospect, Kristaps Porzingis, got booed in a very recent draft?

[bwgood77]

Suns should definitely base their pick on twitter polls.

Especially people that listen to Gambo.

[Archx]

Read on Twitter

At this point i'm actually afraid what will happen if they draft Doncic before Ayton. People of Arizona may boo him out of the town... If they really want Ayton that much, just let everyone know "that's our guy" and get on with it. It's no fun playing in a hostile environment especially if that is also your home team.

Cmon man, this isn't Philly.

After the intitial draft people will love him. People booed Dan Majerle at the draft, people booed Steve Nash at the draft, but fell in love with both fairly quickly.

And if Ayton outperforms Doncic, they will still cheer Doncic. It's not his fault. But they will ride McD out of town on a rail.

Hehe yea i know i didn't mean to sound so negative but Ayton has the potential to be the next Kevin Garnet if he improves on defense. So you have a home boy who can carry a home franchise to the next level plus you have public opinion on your side. Would be smart to go with Ayton even if it turns out it wasn't the best choice. But it is really hard to say at this point. It's so early.

[kennydorglas]

Suns should definitely base their pick on twitter polls.

Cant go wrong.

[76ciology]

And Doncic’s got a good base rate % and fundamental to improve on.

That I feel that there’s a better probability that Doncic turns into a really great shooter than for Ayton to be good defensive player

Problem with that statement is Ayton has elite defensive tools and his issues could have been motivational or schematic..... Just asking him to focus and be a little more aggressive can change that, with time in the film room.

Put it like this. How many people can stop Ayton on offense and how many could stop Doncic? And how many players <cough Mike James> could Doncic stop and how many can Ayton stop on defense?

There your answer.

Excellent point.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

Doncic will make a team’s offense better and won’t make the defense worse than Ayton. But in a halfcourt one on one setting, Ayton should be the better player.

Doncic will be tougher to defend, just as most perimeter scorers nowadays. Stay close, and he’ll drive. Sag off, and he’ll shoot. The NBA rules (handcheck and shotclock) favors him.

Defensively, Doncic is more versatile to switch and mobile to rotate than Ayton. While you can compensate Doncic’s D by playing along a defensive C but you can’t compensate Ayton if he’s not a good defensive C.

[matt131]

My main thing: who would have done better in last night's Warriors/Rockets game? Doncic or Ayton? I personally feel like only Doncic would have fit in, but maybe i am dead wrong.

[BobbieL]

My main thing: who would have done better in last night's Warriors/Rockets game? Doncic or Ayton? I personally feel like only Doncic would have fit in, but maybe i am dead wrong.

Rockets had a six foot Paul; maybe 6’3 Gordon; two six five guys in tucker and harden and a 6’8 Ariza

Talent beats height

If Luka is the better player based on projections and not Gambo or Twitter polls or they lost the true center in Alcindor - but for today’s nba take Luka.

I am still okay with Ayton. Big guys are hard to guard if he had the mentality to win