AtheJ415 wrote:lilfishi22 wrote:AtheJ415 wrote:
This isn't being discussed enough. Just to put this in perspective for some who still seem to not be happy with his progress on defense.
70% is like worst in the league bad. That is what Ayton started at.
54-55% is what Gobert does. That's right, the past 2 months he is at Gobert's percentages (though on a few less defended possessions a game). That is a MASSIVE improvement in a very short period of time. He still gets lost a few possessions a game but he is improving in both and that's what you want.
Sure, you may think he's "soft" or "passive" or whatever, but at the end of the day I would rather have a soft anchor defending at 54-55% at the rim relative to a "hard" defender at a league average percentage.
Also, at the end of the day this game is about efficiency. You need guys who can score the most points on the fewest shots, get others open shots, and defend efficiently. Raw totals are a thing of the past. Ayton is already one of the best rookies ever in terms of scoring efficiency and he has created a ton of shots for others as a passer and just by his gravity. His defensive efficiency has not been great, but not nearly as bad as some suggest (I think he was at -0.2 DBPM or DRPM as of a couple weeks ago, which is way ahead of Towns at the same stage, and he didn't become a decent defender until this year). Ayton is actually ahead of the curve, and nobody seems to give a damn. His efficiency is exactly why the numbers put him so much closer to Luka than anybody realizes. He's not as flashy, and he isn't a primary creator in that same way, but he's still a problem on offense even when he doesn't shoot and unlike Luka, may end up a plus on defense if he can keep this up. Hell, if anybody on this freaking team could hit a 3 we may actually win some games and his BPM might improve.
He's still the 2nd best rookie (I love Young and had him very high on my board for Phx but his percentages are terrible on the year), and actually that gap may have closed a little the last few weeks because Luka's shooting has been declining.
I'd put Young at the same level of Ayton. If you consider Ayton's recent improvement on defense then you need to also consider Young's improvement offensively. Above league average efficiency and well above league average 3PT%. But that's me because I put more value in shot creation and team offense initiation, over rebounding and efficient paint offense.
People don't care about Ayton because he can't initiate offense (yet). He's reliant on getting himself in a good position and reliant on the team to get him the ball. With the way the league is and has been going, big men offense (ie offense in the paint) is being diminished, there's just way more value in player who can create for you and they tend to be the ones who are more likely to be talked about. Subjectively, I don't find Ayotn particularly fun to watch either.
Regarding Ayton's defense and this is the same point I've made in the past but being a big C almost makes you the default defensive anchor and that's no small role. For his position and the defensive role of that position, he has to be really good (and he's making good progress) in order to play that defensive role satisfactorily. It isn't the same for wings where you can put a really good defensive anchor behind them to cover up their weakness and still be a top tier defensive team. It's unfair that the margin for error between wings and big men is so different but it is what it is. I don't think Luka has to be more than an average defender for the Mavs to be a top defensive team if you have rim running defensive big behind him. I don't think I can say the same for Ayton.
I'm not talking opinion when I say Ayton is the #2 rookie. The numbers are very clear, even with Young's improvement. Also, I'd argue Ayton does initiate offense in the sense that he passes very well for his size and he also gets everyone a ton of shots due to his gravity, which is one of the best in the league already, and if our team could shoot at all it would lead to a lot of points. When Ayton moves 3-4 players on the defense move EVERY TIME.
You don't need to score points or get assists to create offense if you draw that much attention. Ayton already does.
Luka could easily end up the better player. He is today, but that should have been expected. Ayton has more upside, but we'll have to see if he reaches it. Importance or not, at the end of the day if Ayton keeps his rim protection at the 55% level he's been at the past 2 months (maybe unlikely, but certainly possible) and adds a 3 point shot (which I think is more a matter of time and will occur), that's a defensive anchor center who can stretch the floor and is elite inside. That is an MVP candidate.
Point being, don't let Luka being fantastic distract you from the fact that Ayton's upside is still the highest in the draft and he's showing rapid improvement at the main weakness he has, while Luka's shooting is dropping with the worse cast around him. That gap isn't as big as people think.
Which numbers are we talking about though? I don't think the numbers are "very clear". Trae Young also has massive gravity with his ability to shoot the ball. He hasn't shot it well to start his rookie season but he's VERY respectable now and being a ball handler who is also a triple threat (much more so than Ayton who's really a double threat). Trae doesn't have the extended period of excellence or highlight reel of Luka but he's arguably a better rookie since the start of the 2019 than Luka.
Pre-2019
Player Impact Estimate
Ayton: 15.2 (#1 among rookies)
Trae: 9.6 (#7 among rookies)
Luka: 13.3 (#2 among rookies)
Net rating
Ayton: -7.3
Trae: -9.7
Luka: -0.1
Offensive rating
Ayton: 104.0
Trae: 100.9
Luka: 107.3
Defensive rating
Ayton: 111.2
Trae: 110.6
Luka: 107.4
True Shooting %
Ayton: 62.7
Trae: 49.6
Luka: 56.9
Post-New year
Player Impact Estimate
Ayton: 12.6 (-2.6 , #5 among rookies)
Trae: 12.7 (+3.1, #4 among rookies)
Luka: 17.1 (+3.8, #1 among rookies)
Net rating
Ayton: -12.6 (-5.3)
Trae: -4.0 (+5.7)
Luka: -2.0 (-1.9)
Offensive rating
Ayton: 101.6 (-2.4)
Trae: 111.7 (+10.8)
Luka: 106.1 (-1.2)
Defensive rating
Ayton: 114.2 (-3.0)
Trae: 115.8 (-5.2)
Luka: 108.2 (-0.8)
True Shooting %
Ayton: 57.8 (-4.9)
Trae: 57.1 (+7.5)
Luka: 54.7 (-2.2)
Ayton might have more upside because of his physical size, athleticism and arguably having been behind the curve in terms of his basketball development but we can't be talking about his upside as if Luka has little. Also when you say Ayton has the highest potential in the draft, you ARE talking opinion.
