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rsavaj wrote:TruthTelling wrote:Suns will pick McLemore over Oladipo given the choice, sorry to all the fan boys.
Thanks for creating a RealGM account, Mr. McDonough. Nice to have you.
Otto Porter is the only guy who really kills it across every measure. He s top 5 in each of the expected win measures, has excellent “star” potential, and draws easily the best comparison set of the class.
Nerlens and Zeller each excel in all but one of the measures. Noel dominates the expected wins models and has a nice star potential. However, while he has a couple excellent comps, he is also associated with more busts than I would like to see if I was Cleveland (I still take him #1). Zeller does great on the wins models and has probably the second best comparison set (all eight would be worthy of a top-5 or definitely a top-10 pick), but drops out of the top-tier in the “bust if star?” model. This is likely due to two factors, 1) looking at his comps they are a lot of good starters but he doesn’t draw comparisons to players at that next level, and 2) the bust-star model does not account for past seasons and Zeller’s freshman campaign was more impressive than his sophomore.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope could be really good, but in both perusing the stats and looking at his comps one thing is clear. He needs to nail his shots to become a player. He isn’t great getting to the rim and that only works if you shoot like Korver or Rip, not any easy feat to accomplish.
Olynyk looks great until you get to the comparisons. This may signal that he is the type of guy who doesn’t have as easy of a time in the NBA as he does in college.
The more ways I look at it, the more I like Muscala.
Two interesting boom-bust point guard targets in MCW and Wolters.
Adams is definitely the better target for a team looking into “young project bigs”.
Shabazz stinks from every direction.
rsavaj wrote:Everyone should take a glance at some of these advanced stats projections for this year's draft: http://www.canishoopus.com/2013/6/3/439 ... arter-bust
rsavaj wrote:Everyone should take a glance at some of these advanced stats projections for this year's draft: http://www.canishoopus.com/2013/6/3/439 ... arter-bust
Porter and Noel are near the top in most metrics. Burke, Oladipo and Zeller are also consistently up there.
The OP's notes:Otto Porter is the only guy who really kills it across every measure. He s top 5 in each of the expected win measures, has excellent “star” potential, and draws easily the best comparison set of the class.
Nerlens and Zeller each excel in all but one of the measures. Noel dominates the expected wins models and has a nice star potential. However, while he has a couple excellent comps, he is also associated with more busts than I would like to see if I was Cleveland (I still take him #1). Zeller does great on the wins models and has probably the second best comparison set (all eight would be worthy of a top-5 or definitely a top-10 pick), but drops out of the top-tier in the “bust if star?” model. This is likely due to two factors, 1) looking at his comps they are a lot of good starters but he doesn’t draw comparisons to players at that next level, and 2) the bust-star model does not account for past seasons and Zeller’s freshman campaign was more impressive than his sophomore.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope could be really good, but in both perusing the stats and looking at his comps one thing is clear. He needs to nail his shots to become a player. He isn’t great getting to the rim and that only works if you shoot like Korver or Rip, not any easy feat to accomplish.
Olynyk looks great until you get to the comparisons. This may signal that he is the type of guy who doesn’t have as easy of a time in the NBA as he does in college.
The more ways I look at it, the more I like Muscala.
Two interesting boom-bust point guard targets in MCW and Wolters.
Adams is definitely the better target for a team looking into “young project bigs”.
Shabazz stinks from every direction.
rsavaj wrote:Love ranked 2nd in the draft in EWS and "Star%"(behind our very own Beasley!)
The model missed on Westbrook(ranked 22 in his draft)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... SM0E#gid=0
Looks like tweeners who kill it in college are the guys to avoid
rsavaj wrote:Evolution of DX's Big Board
Each player’s score is calculated using a unique model built from all other players in the dataset. This means that all retrodiction results are out of sample and thus an honest test of the model’s ability to accurately predict future prospects.
Looking through the results you will see that reliance on this model would have made some excellent picks in the past (Rondo, Lowry, Granger, Millsap, Stockton, Drexler, Zach Randolph, Artest, Ray Allen…) and avoided some clunkers (Austin Rivers, Randy Foye, Olowakandi, Joe Alexander)..., but it also would have advocated some embarrassing picks (Bo Kimble, Derrick Chievious, taking three players before Patrick Ewing…) and thrown a hissy over some early picks who ended up being excellent players (Deron Wiliams, LaMarcus Aldridge, Dikembe Mutombo...)
Some of these errors are impossible to easily explain and just need to be accepted as examples of just how difficult it is to predict who will succeed in the NBA. However looking through the data, I may have identified a few subjective heuristics to keep in the back of your mind.
1) 1. No fatties! Sweetney, Oliver Miller and Sean May are all near the top of the list of players who this model liked more than reality did. Being over-weight seems to work much better in college than it does in the pros. I haven’t tried addressing this in the model yet because weight’s effect is complicated. Sometimes heavy is good, but too much heavy is typically bad. It also doesn’t help that most of the real problem cases are guys who continued to expand after they were drafted. Guys like Kevin Love who go the other direction have a much better track-record.
2) 2. Beware the tween forward. This shouldn’t be a tough sell around these parts. Michael Beasley, Derrick Williams, Donyell Marshall, Glenn Robinson, and Antoine Walker were all pegged as stud prospects by this model. The level of NBA success varies across these cases, but all were a considerable disappointment based on this model’s projections as well as their actually draft slot. History says to avoid college 4s who depend on outside shooting (*cough* Anthony Bennett *cough*).
3) 3. I have not found enough data on shot locations and assisted rates to include it in the model, but my analysis of the dataset at Hoop-Math found that assisted jumpers are good, unassisted rim attempts are very good, and unassisted jumpers are very bad. Especially when gauging your opinion of my 2013 projections, I recommend seeing how your favorite player fits these criteria and subjectively factoring that in… I should also mention that ORBs are better than DRBs but those are not distinguished in the model so look for guys who collect more of the former.
rsavaj wrote:Everyone should take a glance at some of these advanced stats projections for this year's draft: http://www.canishoopus.com/2013/6/3/439 ... arter-bust
Porter and Noel are near the top in most metrics. Burke, Oladipo and Zeller are also consistently up there.
The OP's notes:Otto Porter is the only guy who really kills it across every measure. He s top 5 in each of the expected win measures, has excellent “star” potential, and draws easily the best comparison set of the class.
Nerlens and Zeller each excel in all but one of the measures. Noel dominates the expected wins models and has a nice star potential. However, while he has a couple excellent comps, he is also associated with more busts than I would like to see if I was Cleveland (I still take him #1). Zeller does great on the wins models and has probably the second best comparison set (all eight would be worthy of a top-5 or definitely a top-10 pick), but drops out of the top-tier in the “bust if star?” model. This is likely due to two factors, 1) looking at his comps they are a lot of good starters but he doesn’t draw comparisons to players at that next level, and 2) the bust-star model does not account for past seasons and Zeller’s freshman campaign was more impressive than his sophomore.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope could be really good, but in both perusing the stats and looking at his comps one thing is clear. He needs to nail his shots to become a player. He isn’t great getting to the rim and that only works if you shoot like Korver or Rip, not any easy feat to accomplish.
Olynyk looks great until you get to the comparisons. This may signal that he is the type of guy who doesn’t have as easy of a time in the NBA as he does in college.
The more ways I look at it, the more I like Muscala.
Two interesting boom-bust point guard targets in MCW and Wolters.
Adams is definitely the better target for a team looking into “young project bigs”.
Shabazz stinks from every direction.