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Trade and free agency speculation

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Re: Trade and free agency speculation 

Post#1361 » by Kerrsed » Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:01 am

AtheJ415 wrote:If Lebron truly doesn't want to play with Lonzo, I wonder if we jump in here. Suns supposedly liked him at the draft, and while he was a horrendous shooter last year and needs to reinvent his shot imo, he was much better on defense than expected and was a good rebounder and passer.


I think thats exactly what we are waiting for.

The question is what comes first, They trade for Kawhi (Ingram/Kuzma/Hart) or Give us Ball/Deng. Could see a possible 3-way with us Lakers and Spurs, Ingram/Kuzma/Hart/Chandler to Spurs, Kawhi to Lakers, Ball/Deng to us.
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Re: Trade and free agency speculation 

Post#1362 » by Revived » Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:01 am

NTB wrote:
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Ariza fits this criteria flawlessly

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Re: Trade and free agency speculation 

Post#1363 » by cberry78 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:03 am

I'm all for getting into a 3-way with the Lakers and Spurs where we end up with Lonzo and Lavar gets sent on to SA. :nod:
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Re: RE: Re: Trade and free agency speculation 

Post#1364 » by WeekapaugGroove » Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:08 am

lilfishi22 wrote:
NTB wrote:
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Paying him into his mid 30's doesn't excite me.
Right? No more god damn retirement contacts. They haven't worked.

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Re: Trade and free agency speculation 

Post#1365 » by lilfishi22 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:09 am

ImNotMcDiSwear wrote:
lilfishi22 wrote:
ImNotMcDiSwear wrote:
:o

.
.
.
Edit: to clarify my :o:

Tatum - 34.3 3FG% on 4 3FGA*
Horford - 35.5 3FG% on 3.6 3FGA
Brown - 34.1 3FG% on 1.7 3FGA
Baynes - 0 3FGA
Kyrie - 40.1 3FG% on 6.1 3FGA
Mook - 33.1 3FG% on 4.5 3FGA
Rozier - 31.8 3FG% on 2.4 3FGA
Smart - 28.3 3FG% on 4.2 3FGA

Not that impressive, is it? The asterisk represents a college basketball stat; the rest are these players' percentages and attempts from the prior year. How did all of these players (save Kyrie and Smart) suddenly improve so dramatically?

You can't tell me Brown is a better shooter than Booker. If that's your opinion, you rely too heavily on stats. We all complain about our coaching and culture and mix of players, and then we assume these factors that negatively impact our team's production somehow wouldn't have a depressing affect on our players' stats.

Bender shot better from 3 last year than Horford had during any year of his career, save for last season. Bridges shot much better in college than did Tatum. Why can't Jackson or Warren improve, with a system that caters to, and personnel that compliments, their abilities? If you tell TJ to focus on the corner 3, I bet you he can get to 35% on moderate volume. I think Jackson has high-thirties in him - and maybe better. Brandon's down to a career 35.7 3FG%, after his disastrous first two seasons in Phoenix - better than any of the Celtics' rotation players other than Kyrie if you're looking at the previous year's stats.

I submit to you that if you put our current cast in a good system with Ayton in the middle, you'll see our players' percentages more closely approach their full potential. Certainly, Smart doesn't prevent other players from shooting the ball well. I submit to you that our roster as currently constructed - and with an additional point guard - will shoot the ball well and generate quality offense. Marcus Smart's deficiency in this regard I can't believe is so terrible as to negate that.

But what this squad does not have is great defenders. Dragan's good, but not great, and is limited in what he can do. Ayton obviously is no defensive savant. Booker's not a good defender and can only hope to get closer to average, IMO. TJ's underrated, but not great. Jackson should be solid but I don't think will ever be a stopper. And Knight - well, I'm just hoping for "not bad." Bridges is the only blue-chip defender in that core group.

I think Marcus Smart elevates his teammates, and that he would help plug the HUGE hole on the defensive end in our Booker-Knight-[???]-JJ-Daniels-[Okobo] backcourt rotation. If you don't see that the hole in the backcourt is not shooting, but defense, I don't know what to tell you. We have the talent on offense and a coach that can get us to good or great on that end. On defense? That's where we need better players. Ain't nobody coaching well enough to turn Knight/Booker into a solid defensive backcourt.

The ONLY reasons I'm dubious about the prospect of adding Smart is how impressed I was by Shaq's performance at the end of last season, and how willing Smart and Knight are to taking a bench role. If not for those factors, Marcus would be clear and away my Plan A for the offseason. I go back and forth on whether he's Plan or Plan B, but in any case, he's foremost in my mind when I think of this year's free agents.

Booker is a better shooter than Brown, without a doubt. Brown was assisted on almost 97% of 3PTA's vs Booker's 61% which is around Curry's level. Despite the massive difference in assisted shots, Booker shot significantly more overall 3PTA's than Brown yet shot only a marginally lower 3PT%.

I don't know what the exact catalyst for Boston's increase in shooting %'s were but it certainly was in spite of whatever Smart was doing. He definitely was *not* the reason for it because he was effectively the same player he was the season before. Perhaps it's just internal improvement because most of their guys were already capable shooters but their efficiency just wasn't where it needed to be.

JJ could and I expect he will improve his shooting efficiency. I have no idea where you get this optimism for TJ's 3PT% come from. I guarantee you he's been practicing that 3PT shot in practice and in the offseason for years now. There's no way we would've told him to not focus on it because it's probably the weakest part of his game. Outside of that one season where he shot a very fluky .400, he's averaged .244 from the 3 for his career. To go from .222 to .350 would be a monumental jump.

I just don't understand how you can argue that adding a guy who's a negative shooter (bad % on high attempts) playing a major role (starting) would make us a better shooting team. Even Payton before he was traded to us was shooting .373 from the 3 and that suddenly dropped to .200. Why do you think a bad shooter on a good team with good ball movement would be able to elevate others, let alone his own game by joining a worse team with lesser shooters.

As AtheJ mentioned, our biggest needs is actually two things, shooting and defense. We need 3&D not 3 or D. We're dead last in eFG% last season while we were 24th in opponent eFG%. So you can say we need shooting more than we need defense but the fact is, we're terrible at both but adding Smart to play a role in getting our defense better while being wholly negative from a shooting standpoint is not the way to go and a complete waste of cap space. For how much he's asking, he's not solving enough of our problems and potentially would add to it.


I don't think Smart will make us a better shooting team. I think coaching, internal development and growth, Ayton's gravity and Bridges will. I don't think Smart will prevent it is what I'm saying.

TJ shot 40% from 3 his second season, on low volume. But you could see the form differed from what he shot inside the line. I think he regressed from deep because he was focusing on being true to his own game - and that worked, to the detriment of his 3FG%. I think he'll get past this, and he'll get solid on corner threes, that's all.

But we need to get better. Having a shooting hole at likely both the 1 and the 3 is going to hold back the good shooters on the team like Booker, Bender and maybe even Ayton if teams can sag off guys like TJ and Smart to help on Ayton.

TJ shoots under 30% from the 3 throughout his college and NBA career. It's his 4th season in the NBA and any improvements from that end is going to be incremental. That 40% from his 3rd season was a fluke.
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Re: RE: Re: Trade and free agency speculation 

Post#1366 » by SuperSunsFan » Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:12 am

WeekapaugGroove wrote:
lilfishi22 wrote:
NTB wrote:
Read on Twitter

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Paying him into his mid 30's doesn't excite me.
Right? No more god damn retirement contacts. They haven't worked.

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Re: Trade and free agency speculation 

Post#1367 » by Christine-In-AZ » Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:16 am

ATTL wrote:I prefer a stopgap at point for a year while we figure out what we have in Okobo. If we're confident in him as a rookie then I'm fine with Knight/Okobo/shaq next year.
I'd like to add beverly and Ersan to the team, guys that can contribute and other teams hate playing against.


"seconded"

I really want the team to give Knight max opportunity to show his worth. Yeah! Yeah! He's likely the BK we last saw, or even worse coming off an ACL, but give him 25 mins x 30 games. Who knows? Maybe a slowed down Knight is somehow better, we know the guy is a smart cookie.

With the money invested in him, plus relatively a low win total ceiling ...like 38? 40? In my book. It's the smart route. Just rehabbing his value a fair amount makes him a better expiring come next off season.

There's really no telling what we have here at this point. Even the pieces that were already in place before the draft outside of Booker, Warren and the 3 vets, still have a very wide floor to ceiling prospectus to almost everybody, save the chronic, too quick to decide, nay-sayers.

If McD see a team piece at a good number? Sure, do it. But I really hope it's not at the PG position. And if he hasn't learned his lesson in regards to signing players to be future trade assets? Please no.
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Re: Trade and free agency speculation 

Post#1368 » by Fo-Real » Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:28 am

If not planning on handing over to Brandon Knight and letting the rookie back him up, of all the mentioned free agent point guards Smart is the only guy who stands out to me as a natural game changer. Stats be damned for me he actually makes a difference in the games he plays in. He's such a defensive, irritant gets his hands in the passing Lanes he's like a defensive quarterback. He's not worth what he's asking for but if you can get him at 8 to 10 I would do it. Even though all his percentages say he's a bad shooter watching him in the playoffs he always felt dangerous he always seem to hit big shots he's never afraid to take a shot you never hurts his team by not shooting he seems to come up big in big moments a ton for me, maybe that's just me and my eye but what he brings seems to help his team win not the opposite. I also feel when given the role of actual point guard not just extra guard on the floor he did pretty well distributing while still attacking the basket. You're not going to find somebody who is perfect sometimes you have to have a scoring point guard like Knight and a defensive stopper like Marcus Smart on your roster. not advocating that we get him end-all-be-all just saying I think he makes us better.
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Re: Trade and free agency speculation 

Post#1369 » by Jdiddy701 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:35 am

When Trevor Ariza turn to a stretch 4? Lol


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Re: Trade and free agency speculation 

Post#1370 » by Christine-In-AZ » Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:35 am

Revived wrote:
NTB wrote:
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Could be the stretch 4 that McD alluded to about targeting. Esp since he mentioned one that plays defense too.


Not trying to be a smartass, but didn't we just draft a 22yo (at game #1) "Ariza" in Bridges?
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Re: Trade and free agency speculation 

Post#1371 » by kingstyyyle » Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:45 am

Starting line up on opening day.
Booker
Jackson
Bridges
Ariza
Warren
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Re: Trade and free agency speculation 

Post#1372 » by TOO » Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:47 am

kingstyyyle wrote:Starting line up on opening day.
Booker
Jackson
Bridges
Ariza
Warren


Booker is a better C than PG 8-)
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Re: Trade and free agency speculation 

Post#1373 » by lilfishi22 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:49 am

kingstyyyle wrote:Starting line up on opening day.
Booker
Jackson
Bridges
Ariza
Warren

The offensive and defensive philosophy: "Run and don't look back"
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Re: Trade and free agency speculation 

Post#1374 » by kingstyyyle » Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:50 am

Suns are gonna have more wings than a Hooters.
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Re: Trade and free agency speculation 

Post#1375 » by TOO » Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:51 am

lilfishi22 wrote:
kingstyyyle wrote:Starting line up on opening day.
Booker
Jackson
Bridges
Ariza
Warren

The offensive and defensive philosophy: "Run and don't look back"


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Re: Trade and free agency speculation 

Post#1376 » by Fo-Real » Thu Jun 28, 2018 6:12 am

kingstyyyle wrote:Suns are gonna have more wings than a Hooters.

Naaaa, after games they will get plenty of Hooters ya dig!! :lol:
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Re: Trade and free agency speculation 

Post#1377 » by Fo-Real » Thu Jun 28, 2018 6:14 am

Sun's should just do some off the wall b's, SUNS NAME TJ WARREN THE OPEANING DAY POINT GUARD!!! LOL
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Re: Trade and free agency speculation 

Post#1378 » by thamadkant » Thu Jun 28, 2018 6:20 am

Aminu to Suns
Ariza to Blazers (after clearing room from Aminu)


Aminu is 6'9, 7'4 wingspan... can shoot the 3... he's a stretch 4 and a long 3 depending on lineup.
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Re: Trade and free agency speculation 

Post#1379 » by lilfishi22 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 6:32 am

thamadkant wrote:Aminu to Suns
Ariza to Blazers (after clearing room from Aminu)


Aminu is 6'9, 7'4 wingspan... can shoot the 3... he's a stretch 4 and a long 3 depending on lineup.

Good call. Much prefer Aminu over Ariza

More than 5 years younger than Ariza
Longer wingspan than Ariza
Way more stretch 4 experience
Shot a similar .360 from 3 over the past 3 seasons
13.5TRB% vs Ariza's 9.3TRB%
Not sure what it'll take to get him but he's on a $7m expiring deal with the Blazers
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Re: Trade and free agency speculation 

Post#1380 » by Christine-In-AZ » Thu Jun 28, 2018 6:58 am

AtheJ415 wrote:
jredsaz wrote:
AtheJ415 wrote:If Lebron truly doesn't want to play with Lonzo, I wonder if we jump in here. Suns supposedly liked him at the draft, and while he was a horrendous shooter last year and needs to reinvent his shot imo, he was much better on defense than expected and was a good rebounder and passer.


Lonzos shooting is suspect and his form is as bad as anyone's in the NBA. What makes him a significantly better prospect than Smart?


He's still young enough to fix it, and he isn't useless on offense. He is a great passer. Marcus sucks across the entire offensive board.


I was not a Lonzo fan in the '17 draft. Had him 10th on my big board, and his shot was even worse than I thought it would be in his first season. Still, I would be fairly excited if the Suns didn't have to give up much and eat Deng's contract to get Ball in a Suns uni. I never thought Ball would bust, just like many, believed the hype far exceeded his true value. I thought then, and still believe he's going to be a very good (rather unique) NBA player...Thinking a better version of Lin or Livingston. Maybe much better than either of my comps, if the chess pieces are set up for him, and Lonzo has some crazy "chess skills" when it comes to seeing the game tactically. It's true of most players that fit makes a world of difference. This Suns team feels like a good, developing concoction for Ball to mix his chit into...damn, if he could only shoot, but then he'd be the Laker savior his dad evangelized was coming, realized. So glad, he's (Lonzo) so clearly human after all.

Dad was another major negative for me a year ago, but while I'm sure Lavar will continue to chirp wildly and incessantly, the press won't amplify his pontifications nearly to the frequency and volume they have/had going forward, especially if he's in little ol' Phoenix. Still a caveat to having Lonzo, but a minor one at this point.

I'm generally in on Lonzo to the Suns.

I'm with you on the idea of Smart being brought in, though not sharing nearly the level of disdain you clearly have for his overall offensive game. Even moreso like Ball, Smart needs to be in a rather particular situation in order to be a plus player. And the Stevens effect is a real thing in my book. I wouldn't lose my lunch if the Suns signed him, as I do believe there's a chance Phoenix's make up in a couple years could develop into a good fit for Smart. Dude busts his butt every minute he's on the floor if nothing else. He is an interesting player...er? Case study for a very poor offensive yet high minute, rotation player.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/marcus-smart-shooting-percentage-stats-boston-celtics-vs-golden-state-warriors/
OK, so Marcus Smart is a terrible, horrible, no-good shooter who clearly must be a liability to the Celtics.

Except ... when Smart is on the floor, the Celtics outscore their opponent by 11.3 points per 100 possessions (roughly one game). That's 7.9 points per 100 possessions better than when he's off the court. In other words, the Celtics jump from a solid team to an elite team when Smart is on the court.

But that's obviously the defense, right? After all, Smart is an omni-defender who can match up with all five positions, a bull in a china shop. The Celtics' defense is 1.5 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor. That's where the good play comes from, right?


Except ... here's the thing ... when Smart is on the floor, the Celtics have a 106 offensive rating. That's second best among rotation players, and 6.8 points better than when he's on the bench.

How is it that the the worst shooter in the league helps make the league's best team better on offense?

The illusion of threat
Every day, you go in and you play. You practice and you practice and you play, over and over again, and you see the same actions over and over. You have certain things you just do, like defend against a guy driving to the rim, even if, in actuality, you are surrendering a worse outcome than you would if you just let him attempt a layup.

This is the beautiful secret to Marcus Smart's offensive success (with help from Brad Stevens and Al Horford)...

...in some ways, he's like a poor man's Draymond Green, who the Celtics face Thursday in the week's titanic battle of the two best teams in the league at the moment. Green is a better finisher but is a career 33 percent 3-point shooter. Like Smart, he's defined by his bullying, overwhelming defense and like Smart, his sublime passing is often overlooked. Both operate as the emotional engines of their teams.

Given his defensive prowess and the way he provides an emotional energy to the team, it's clear it doesn't matter how Smart shoots.

He just makes the Celtics better.



Zach Lowe's "10 Things" column regarding Smart-
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/21771623/zach-lowe-10-things-like-including-chicago-bulls-nba

10. Marcus Smart's passing
It's an NBA riddle: How can a wing shooting 32 percent end up on the positive side of the plus-minus ledger every night? Boston fans would point to Smart's bullying, chest-to-chest defense, and the balls-to-the-wall plays -- flying in from nowhere for rebounds and saves -- that inspire teammates. (Many of those fans would wish not to consider the possibility that some of those plus-minus numbers are random noise that comes with playing on a very good team, and that historically bad shooting is harmful on certain nights.)

The debate has given short shrift to Smart's passing -- a must for any non-shooter who has the ball so much. Smart has grown in that department every year. He was wild and uncertain at first. By last season, he had mastered the simple stuff -- obvious drive-and-kick reads, pick-and-pop passes to Al Horford.

Now, he's thinking one step ahead, manipulating defenses...

...Smart's free agency this summer will be fascinating. The league doesn't quite know what to do with him. He's a polarizing player. Given Boston's financial commitments to Horford, Gordon Hayward, and Kyrie Irving -- plus the play of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, both ahead of Smart now in the organizational pecking order -- a rich offer sheet could present Boston with a thorny dilemma.



But even with the above writer observations, I WOULD feel damn queezy if he signed a not too bad offer sheet with the Suns and then Ainge and Stevens say effectively "See ya Marcus!" and let him walk. That "statement" would echo ugly.

I'm comfortably out on Marcus Smart joining this way-too-early-to-know-wtf-we-have-here Phoenix team.

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