lilfishi22 wrote:AtheJ415 wrote:lilfishi22 wrote:Which numbers are we talking about though? I don't think the numbers are "very clear". Trae Young also has massive gravity with his ability to shoot the ball. He hasn't shot it well to start his rookie season but he's VERY respectable now and being a ball handler who is also a triple threat (much more so than Ayton who's really a double threat). Trae doesn't have the extended period of excellence or highlight reel of Luka but he's arguably a better rookie since the start of the 2019 than Luka.
Pre-2019
Player Impact Estimate
Ayton: 15.2 (#1 among rookies)
Trae: 9.6 (#7 among rookies)
Luka: 13.3 (#2 among rookies)
Net rating
Ayton: -7.3
Trae: -9.7
Luka: -0.1
Offensive rating
Ayton: 104.0
Trae: 100.9
Luka: 107.3
Defensive rating
Ayton: 111.2
Trae: 110.6
Luka: 107.4
True Shooting %
Ayton: 62.7
Trae: 49.6
Luka: 56.9
Post-New year
Player Impact Estimate
Ayton: 12.6 (-2.6 , #5 among rookies)
Trae: 12.7 (+3.1, #4 among rookies)
Luka: 17.1 (+3.8, #1 among rookies)
Net rating
Ayton: -12.6 (-5.3)
Trae: -4.0 (+5.7)
Luka: -2.0 (-1.9)
Offensive rating
Ayton: 101.6 (-2.4)
Trae: 111.7 (+10.8)
Luka: 106.1 (-1.2)
Defensive rating
Ayton: 114.2 (-3.0)
Trae: 115.8 (-5.2)
Luka: 108.2 (-0.8)
True Shooting %
Ayton: 57.8 (-4.9)
Trae: 57.1 (+7.5)
Luka: 54.7 (-2.2)
Ayton might have more upside because of his physical size, athleticism and arguably having been behind the curve in terms of his basketball development but we can't be talking about his upside as if Luka has little. Also when you say Ayton has the highest potential in the draft, you ARE talking opinion.
Who the hell has ever said Luka has"little" upside at any point. And yes, Ayton is #2. If you wanted to look at just post new year's #s, then okay, but the season started before that, so I don't see much logic in cutting it in half and acting like that somehow supports an argument regarding their play for the full year. Also, using DR and OR isn't apples to apples here when the Suns are the worst team of the group.
Dude, you were the one highlighting Ayton's last two month's (ie same parameters as the tweet) defensive improvement and all I did was highlight Young's last two month's offensive improvement. So if we're talking about recent improvements then Young is the #2 and arguably #1 rookie in the league. I ONLY commented on Young's recent improvement and I've always acknowledged Young wasn't very good to start off as we all did regarding Ayton's defense. But if the logic is that you CAN'T show improvement which I'm not allowed to because I'm apparently not allowed to consider anything other than an entire year then as far as I'm concerned Ayton is still a terrible defender and you can't use Ayton and Gobert in the same sentence.
This isn't being discussed enough. Just to put this in perspective for some who still seem to not be happy with his progress on defense.
70% is like worst in the league bad. That is what Ayton started at.
54-55% is what Gobert does. That's right, the past 2 months he is at Gobert's percentages (though on a few less defended possessions a game). That is a MASSIVE improvement in a very short period of time. He still gets lost a few possessions a game but he is improving in both and that's what you want.
So I'm not allowed to comment on Trae's massive improvement offensively but you're cool to talk about Ayton's near-Gobert level defense over the past 2 months (bit "arbitrary" isn't it?). Also which numbers should we be using?
I think people need to keep in mind that Trae, who is a phenomenal offensive talent, will be always be a giant defensive liability. Luka, FWIW, looks bad defensively post-trade since he's been tasked guarding SF. Marvin has been dreadful. ayton might suck on defense right now (though I think this is greatly exaggerated), he has shown enough glimpses of being above average in this department. Potentially elite. His DPRM rating is HIGHER than other rookie defensive specialists (Mo, Mitchel Robinson, Robert William) though lower than Jared/WCJ. Not bad for a "liability."
Anyway, the crux of my point is that Trae will never be average on D. He has a slight, narrow frame. He can't guard neither point guard nor shooting guard.The kid is literally one of the worse, if not the worse, defender in all of NBA (DPRM), regardless of position, for a reason. If he was playing the 90s, you could potential scheme around his defensive shortcoming, but not in today's league where practically ever team, not named the Suns, have at least two competent guards. I don't see a Trae Young - driven team will ever be competitive, beyond trying to secure a low rank seed on the playoff rung.
On a completely unrelated note (didn't want to post another tread), someone mentioned leaving or visiting his forum less frequently because of how toxic Suns fans have been towards ayton. I gotta agree. You know it's bad when the Reddit Subs is a better place to visit. Besides BW (who is the most objective) and a handful of other posters, the rest of posters on this forum really need to lighten up on ayton. It's just a game, people take it way too personal.