2013 Draft Thread Part 2

Post #1401 » by **bwgood77** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 4:13 pm

Another sleeper rising up draft boards.... http://www.nba.com/suns/draft-prospects ... dwell-pope

Dr Manute · Post #1402 » by **Dr Manute** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 4:53 pm

I would be happy if the Suns drafted Nate Wolters with their 30th pick. I think he'll be good player.

Post #1403 » by **rsavaj** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 4:54 pm

Kerrsed wrote:Its just one of those things, he posted a few names like Olajuwon and Barkley and Stockton and says , see, look my formula said these guys wold be great and they were!

I want to see the bad. Players like Beasley and Thabeet or Biyombo and see how well they did. He mentioned that Rebounds and Blocks and Steals translate to the NBA (those players end up better) and while shooting and efficiency dont, as a player can get better offensively. Thabeet and Biyombo were GREAT rebounders and Blockers. Win shares were also a big part of his formula, and as i recall Thabeet was the biggest factor on that 2009 Huskies team.

According to http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/sch ... /2009.html, Thabeet had an amazing 9.4 Win Share! Thats .1 less than Otto Porter has!!

Beasley had a 10.7 WS.
Derrick Rose had a 6.6 WS.
Love had a 11.3 WS, while Westbrook had a 5.3 WS.
Wades WS was 6.5

My point is that using Win Shares for your main basis of a "super advanced formula" is fail. Win Shares are not reliable.

If you read the links, you'd see that he doesn't claim his model to be perfect, and readily admits that while it would have made some very smart picks, it would have made some very bad ones as well.

There is no perfect model. The hope is that you can use these metrics + your scouting evaluations to make a more informed choice. If a guy passes the eyeball test AND the metrics love him, then he's probably a safe bet. If a guy is a huge question mark and sucks in all the metrics, then he's probably somebody you should avoid.

It gets trickier when the scouts love a guy that the metrics don't, or the metrics love a guy that the scouts don't.

Dr Manute · Post #1404 » by **Dr Manute** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 5:05 pm

Sounds like TWolves want to move ahead of us to snatch Oladipo. Do they have anything that Orlando or the Bobcats would want? If not, then I think Oladipo will fall to us. :pray:

Orlando should pick McLemore and Bobcats - Len or Bennett.

Post #1405 » by **rsavaj** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 5:06 pm

Williams+9 to Charlotte for #4 seems pretty likely to me

b-ball forever · Post #1406 » by **b-ball forever** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 5:07 pm

Win Shares aren't that reliable for evaluating players in the NBA, and even less reliable for NCAA players. Adjusted plus minus is somewhat useful for evaluating NBA players, but the bigger discrepancy of talent in college b-ball make it less useful for evaluating college players.

TS% is still a good tool tho.

JMac1 · Post #1407 » by **JMac1** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 5:11 pm

rsavaj wrote:
If you read the links, you'd see that he doesn't claim his model to be perfect, and readily admits that while it would have made some very smart picks, it would have made some very bad ones as well.

There is no perfect model. The hope is that you can use these metrics + your scouting evaluations to make a more informed choice. If a guy passes the eyeball test AND the metrics love him, then he's probably a safe bet. If a guy is a huge question mark and sucks in all the metrics, then he's probably somebody you should avoid.

It gets trickier when the scouts love a guy that the metrics don't, or the metrics love a guy that the scouts don't.

exactly...that is way I will always go with my lying eyes....but I like to look at the stats to affirm my observation....

Dr Manute wrote:Sounds like TWolves want to move ahead of us to snatch Oladipo. Do they have anything that Orlando or the Bobcats would want? If not, then I think Oladipo will fall to us. Orlando should pick McLemore and Bobcats - Len or Bennett.

Bobcats (if I were them) would not trade a chance to see Bennett, Ola, Len, or whomever for DWilliams and the number 9. Why? You know what DWill has done so far (not good) and you know you want get the scoring big that you need at 9....so why trade? Doesn't make much sense. Plus, I do believe teams are getting tired of Minny's hand me downs..Perferably :lol:

US!

Dr Manute · Post #1408 » by **Dr Manute** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 5:29 pm

rsavaj wrote:Williams+9 to Charlotte for #4 seems pretty likely to me

Can that work salary wise? Williams makes 5 mil per year. I hope Charlotte falls in love with either Len or Bennett.

Dr Manute · Post #1409 » by **Dr Manute** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 5:43 pm

My Mock 2.0:

1. Cavs - Noel
2. Magic - McLemore
3. Wiz - Porter
4. Bobcats - Bennett
5. Suns - Oladipo

Gorilla Warfare · Post #1410 » by **Gorilla Warfare** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 6:00 pm

I still think Burke is going to be Orlando's pick. I think McLemore is going to be that guy that drops a few more picks than he should in this draft. Not plummet like PJ3, but could drop to 5 or 6 when he really should be 1 or 2.

I'm just curious if Burke goes early and T'Wolves don't move up and Oladipo and McLemore are both available who would we take?

Frank Lee · Post #1411 » by **Frank Lee** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 6:02 pm

Still amazing to me Noel continues to hoover around at #1 in most mocks. What does it do to the applecart if Cleve passes on him... or deals the rights? Orlando does not need him. Does Washington ? Would MJ pass on him ?

Would we take him ? Stranger things have happened on draft day.

Dr Manute · Post #1412 » by **Dr Manute** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 6:12 pm

Frank Lee wrote:Still amazing to me Noel continues to hoover around at #1 in most mocks. What does it do to the applecart if Cleve passes on him... or deals the rights? Orlando does not need him. Does Washington ? Would MJ pass on him ?

Would we take him ? Stranger things have happened on draft day.

I was looking on the Bobcats' board and it looks like the fans would want Noel if he is available.

RunDogGun · Post #1413 » by **RunDogGun** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 6:14 pm

Frank Lee wrote:Still amazing to me Noel continues to hoover around at #1 in most mocks. What does it do to the applecart if Cleve passes on him... or deals the rights? Orlando does not need him. Does Washington ? Would MJ pass on him ?

Would we take him ? Stranger things have happened on draft day.

If he falls to us, I think there is no way we pass on him. We are in a good position to take a risk on him. He may not help the current team, and he clearly needs to bulk up, which will have to wait until he is healthy.

However, I think Cleveland has room to take that risk as well. With a healthy team, they still have a good chance to make the playoffs. Plus if they felt it would take long, they still have three other picks (19,31,33), which they could move or draft decent role players.

RunSunRun · Post #1414 » by **RunSunRun** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 6:47 pm

I'm also feeling fairly confident that if one of Noel, McLemore, or Oladipo drops to #5 they will be our pick. Just can't see us passing on any of them unless they have a major red flag concern that we don't know about yet, like an undisclosed heart condition, drug problem, or something.

So much hinges on Minnesota right now and if they do decide to leapfrog us to grab Oladipo, in which case I'm crossing my fingers that McLemore drops to us at #5.

Post #1415 » by **rsavaj** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 6:55 pm

Dr Manute wrote:My Mock 2.0:

1. Cavs - Noel
2. Magic - McLemore
3. Wiz - Porter
4. Bobcats - Bennett
5. Suns - Oladipo

I have this feeling that the first three will go that way, but Minny will trade for #4 to take Oladipo.

Not sure what we'll do at #5 if that's the case.

Post #1416 » by **bwgood77** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 7:28 pm

Dr Manute wrote:
rsavaj wrote:Williams+9 to Charlotte for #4 seems pretty likely to me

Can that work salary wise? Williams makes 5 mil per year. I hope Charlotte falls in love with either Len or Bennett.

Yes, Charlotte is well under the cap so they can absorb salary. But Minnesota is unlikely to deal Williams AND a pick just to move up 5 spots in a weak draft. Williams was playing some good ball the last couple of months of the season when he started getting 30 minutes + a game. He's just got more value than that

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... elog/2013/

If Minnesota is considering such a move, the Suns should swap picks and pick up Williams even if it cost them a Morris twin, or both of them for that matter.

Post #1417 » by **TASTIC** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 7:54 pm

I have the worst feeling this is going to happen

Spurs win the title
Duncan comes back and says it's his last year
Duncan gets hurt after 5 games, career over (that would be sad if he went out like that)
Spurs trade Manu for someone under the radar good/young
Spurs win the lottery, select Wiggins.

Every Suns fan kills themselves.

Post #1418 » by **bwgood77** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 8:02 pm

TASTIC wrote:I have the worst feeling this is going to happen

Spurs win the title
Duncan comes back and says it's his last year
Duncan gets hurt after 5 games, career over (that would be sad if he went out like that)
Spurs trade Manu for someone under the radar good/young
Spurs win the lottery, select Wiggins.

Every Suns fan kills themselves.

Wouldn't surprise me. I had the same thought regarding the Lakers....they fail to make the playoffs and somehow end up winning the lottery and get Wiggins the year we don't get their pick.

Revived · Post #1419 » by **Revived** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 8:07 pm

bwgood77 wrote:
Dr Manute wrote:
rsavaj wrote:Williams+9 to Charlotte for #4 seems pretty likely to me

Can that work salary wise? Williams makes 5 mil per year. I hope Charlotte falls in love with either Len or Bennett.

Yes, Charlotte is well under the cap so they can absorb salary. But Minnesota is unlikely to deal Williams AND a pick just to move up 5 spots in a weak draft. Williams was playing some good ball the last couple of months of the season when he started getting 30 minutes + a game. He's just got more value than that

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... elog/2013/

If Minnesota is considering such a move, the Suns should swap picks and pick up Williams even if it cost them a Morris twin, or both of them for that matter.

Why would the Suns stockpile yet another PF that's undersized?

We have enough on this roster for a lifetime.

Post #1420 » by **bwgood77** » Fri Jun 7, 2013 8:15 pm

sunsfan88 wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
Dr Manute wrote:
Can that work salary wise? Williams makes 5 mil per year. I hope Charlotte falls in love with either Len or Bennett.

Yes, Charlotte is well under the cap so they can absorb salary. But Minnesota is unlikely to deal Williams AND a pick just to move up 5 spots in a weak draft. Williams was playing some good ball the last couple of months of the season when he started getting 30 minutes + a game. He's just got more value than that

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... elog/2013/

If Minnesota is considering such a move, the Suns should swap picks and pick up Williams even if it cost them a Morris twin, or both of them for that matter.

Why would the Suns stockpile yet another PF that's undersized?

We have enough on this roster for a lifetime.

Well I'm talking about upgrading talent, and like I said, I would deal one or both of the Morris guys to do it, and Beasley wouldn't be in my long term plans. I'd be trying to trade Scola because I think he has trade value and is too old to be part of Suns future. I also wouldn't include Frye in the future plans.

I don't know that I'd actively try to go out and get Williams, but his potential upside and value is definitely worth moving down our picks, especially with a guy like Pope probably there.

But like I said, I imagine if they move Williams it will be for more than moving up a few spots in the draft. His numbers the first two years were very similar to Paul George's #s his first two years, and when he got starter minutes (in the last two months), he flourished, kind of like Paul George did this year. I just think it would be crazy for a team to give up on a #2 pick that fast. Remember Williams was much more impressive in college than anyone in this year's draft.