Season Speculation, Trade Ideas & Discussion Pt. 4

[King4Day]

When I first joined here around 2014 it was blasphemy to say we should rebuild let alone through a 4-5 year process via the draft. It probably wasn't until maybe 18-24 months ago that this became an accepted strategy that posters didn't get criticised for.

That's what a Kevin Durant to a 73 win team will do.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

I guess it's possible if say a guy like Kemba became available and the suns wanted to pounce. But overall no I think they will stay pretty quiet this year. Their two biggest long term needs are PG and C. This is a really good PG and C draft so until they know exactly where they are picking this summer it's prudent to not make any long term moves and box themselves in at either position. I do think they will be more aggressive this summer than they have been in years and make some win now type moves.

I agree that McD will wait until the summer to make any significant moves. At that time, he might be able to add one player via trade and another via free agency.

Assuming we do not draft Bagley, Ayton or Young, whomever we draft will start their careers at the back end of our rotation. The holes at PG and C will need to be filled by vets for a couple years. I guess it's possible that if Jackson improves his 3 ball and his defense, he and Booker could start in the back court.

The real question in my mind is what will be done with Knight. Perhaps he earns that starting PG spot and we don't need to look outside the roster for that vet. But if we add a vet and a draftee, how don't know how we move Knight. Complicated.

You think Doncic would start at the back end of our rotation?

So literal, BW! No. I'm just not sure we would draft him in any case. If we're so high on him as to overlook the positional issues, maybe we pull a Boston and trade down for Ayton, Bamba or Young. If we do draft him, I imagine he's in the starting lineup pretty quickly, but I do think that creates more immediate problems with positional overlap that we would have to address on a more advanced timeline than we'd likely prefer.... but yeah, I guess we probably do take him #1.

What would your starting lineup look like in that case? You can't seriously be thinking Donkic/Booker/Warren/Chriss/Chandler, can you?

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Spoiler:

In order to advance into the playoffs it generally expected that you must have 2 all star level players. Portland has them, New Orleans has them, and even the clippers have them. The Suns on the other hand has one. Warren isnt close to being an All star level talent at small forward. This is just to get into the playoffs. Now in the age of the superteams we are going to need 3 all-star level talents to be able to complete against the Warriors or Houston. In otherwords even if we slip in to the playoffs we are out in the first round and the results are that we lose possible talent in the draft that might have pushed us into the playoffs for the long term next year.

Let me guess. Because TJ doesn't shoot the 3-ball well, right? Being 5th in the league (SFs) in PPG and PER isn't enough, while being top half in TRB, which, BTW, he's #1 in ORB? TJ plays 'differently'; that doesn't mean he's not near 'All-Star level' play. It just means he's an 'All-Star' in a unique way.

And we aren't far from a 'super-team' as you put it; we are building it, rather than buying it. That said, we probably need to 'buy' one. The rest will come from within. So, my point is, we are not far away. We have the assets we need; McD just needs to figure out what to do with these between now and the start of next season. A combination of getting a Combo Guard from the draft plus a Center via a trade, and we are set.

Other teams 'build' via the draft; the All-Stars you speak of didn't just appear from thin air. I still contend that Len could be an All-Sar Center, but he'll never get the chance. That's mismanagement of assets. We have our '18 pick + 3 others that do not belong to us in various years, plus JJ and, let's say Bender. Plus we have Monroe and others until the deadline.

That should be enough for us to get Young or Doncic PLUS get a Center, apparently, since Len appears not to be the answer, will surely get us our superteam...

His inability to shoot the 3 negatively impacts his efficiency, his teammates production and the offense as a whole. It's a big deal.

He's been nailing the corner 3 a bit better of late. I think that's realistically all he has to do in order to cure that deficiency. Otherwise, the threat he presents off ball, on the interior and in the mid-range I think gives our offense a degree of dynamism that a lot of teams will have a tougher time with than just another 3&D wing.

[Saberestar]

Read on Twitter

[bwgood77]

I agree that McD will wait until the summer to make any significant moves. At that time, he might be able to add one player via trade and another via free agency.

Assuming we do not draft Bagley, Ayton or Young, whomever we draft will start their careers at the back end of our rotation. The holes at PG and C will need to be filled by vets for a couple years. I guess it's possible that if Jackson improves his 3 ball and his defense, he and Booker could start in the back court.

The real question in my mind is what will be done with Knight. Perhaps he earns that starting PG spot and we don't need to look outside the roster for that vet. But if we add a vet and a draftee, how don't know how we move Knight. Complicated.

You think Doncic would start at the back end of our rotation?

So literal, BW! No. I'm just not sure we would draft him in any case. If we're so high on him as to overlook the positional issues, maybe we pull a Boston and trade down for Ayton, Bamba or Young. If we do draft him, I imagine he's in the starting lineup pretty quickly, but I do think that creates more immediate problems with positional overlap that we would have to address on a more advanced timeline than we'd likely prefer.... but yeah, I guess we probably do take him #1.

What would your starting lineup look like in that case? You can't seriously be thinking Donkic/Booker/Warren/Chriss/Chandler, can you?

Yeah, why not? He's typically listed as a primary ball handler on offense. https://www.thestepien.com/2018-draft-rankings/

Then again, I'm not concerned with "positions" as much as guys who can pass, shoot, and be versatile players. Hopefully we find another big either with Miami pick and/or in FA to supplant Chandler (if we were to get Doncic).

Are you saying if we don't get Young, you'd stick with Ulis or sign a random PG or take Sexton over drafting Doncic?

[Stix]

Read on Twitter

Perhaps a new tattoo?

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

You think Doncic would start at the back end of our rotation?

So literal, BW! No. I'm just not sure we would draft him in any case. If we're so high on him as to overlook the positional issues, maybe we pull a Boston and trade down for Ayton, Bamba or Young. If we do draft him, I imagine he's in the starting lineup pretty quickly, but I do think that creates more immediate problems with positional overlap that we would have to address on a more advanced timeline than we'd likely prefer.... but yeah, I guess we probably do take him #1.

What would your starting lineup look like in that case? You can't seriously be thinking Donkic/Booker/Warren/Chriss/Chandler, can you?

Yeah, why not? He's typically listed as a primary ball handler on offense. https://www.thestepien.com/2018-draft-rankings/

Then again, I'm not concerned with "positions" as much as guys who can pass, shoot, and be versatile players. Hopefully we find another big either with Miami pick and/or in FA to supplant Chandler (if we were to get Doncic).

Are you saying if we don't get Young, you'd stick with Ulis or sign a random PG or take Sexton over drafting Doncic?

Nah. But obviously my concern is throwing out a bunch of players who play only offense and none of whom have ever dreamed of guarding the PG.

[bwgood77]

So literal, BW! No. I'm just not sure we would draft him in any case. If we're so high on him as to overlook the positional issues, maybe we pull a Boston and trade down for Ayton, Bamba or Young. If we do draft him, I imagine he's in the starting lineup pretty quickly, but I do think that creates more immediate problems with positional overlap that we would have to address on a more advanced timeline than we'd likely prefer.... but yeah, I guess we probably do take him #1.

What would your starting lineup look like in that case? You can't seriously be thinking Donkic/Booker/Warren/Chriss/Chandler, can you?

Yeah, why not? He's typically listed as a primary ball handler on offense. https://www.thestepien.com/2018-draft-rankings/

Then again, I'm not concerned with "positions" as much as guys who can pass, shoot, and be versatile players. Hopefully we find another big either with Miami pick and/or in FA to supplant Chandler (if we were to get Doncic).

Are you saying if we don't get Young, you'd stick with Ulis or sign a random PG or take Sexton over drafting Doncic?

Nah. But obviously my concern is throwing out a bunch of players who play only offense and none of whom have ever dreamed of guarding the PG.

Yeah, I was going to mention that but assuming Young is gone I didn't imagine Ulis or Young doing any better than Doncic in that regard. And there are not really that many premier pg defenders, or many guys who are plus PG defenders, a positive on offense (at least starter quality positive) and likely available http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/DRPM/position/1

Just a little surprised you would pass up a potential transcedent player because you don't feel he can guard PGs or in the case you want to peg him in at a wing position that you'd hesitate based on current personnel.

It's funny, three of the point guards people have pined over at times rank as the last 3 out of 96 point guards in DRPM...Fox, Schroeder and Mudiay. http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/3/sort/DRPM/position/1 Ulis slightly ahead of them, right after Brogdon.

[Biff]

Literally the reasoning provided every year. Revisionist history bull****.

It's not revisionist bull at all. 2017 was expected to be strong 1-14 but 2018 is expected to be extremely top heavy with a steeper talent drop off after the top 5-6. Some people have compared it to the 2003 draft.

McDonough said in May in various interviews that 2017 draft was probably the best since 2003.

Every year is the same story BEFORE the draft.

It takes a bit more than what McDonough says to convince me. Before the draft, I read article after article about how the 2017 draft was deep but that there weren't any players that were clearly way ahead of the others. A lot of people thought Fultz and Ball were the best prospects (obviously Ainge didn't think so) but after that it was anyone's guess. It's why there was such furious debate here about who we should draft at 4. People argued for Tatum, Jackson, Isaac, Smith, Ntilikina, Monk, Fox, and so on. In 2018, it's pretty clear that the top 5-6 players are far and away better than the rest of the prospective lottery picks.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Yeah, why not? He's typically listed as a primary ball handler on offense. https://www.thestepien.com/2018-draft-rankings/

Then again, I'm not concerned with "positions" as much as guys who can pass, shoot, and be versatile players. Hopefully we find another big either with Miami pick and/or in FA to supplant Chandler (if we were to get Doncic).

Are you saying if we don't get Young, you'd stick with Ulis or sign a random PG or take Sexton over drafting Doncic?

Nah. But obviously my concern is throwing out a bunch of players who play only offense and none of whom have ever dreamed of guarding the PG.

Yeah, I was going to mention that but assuming Young is gone I didn't imagine Ulis or Young doing any better than Doncic in that regard. And there are not really that many premier pg defenders, or many guys who are plus PG defenders, a positive on offense (at least starter quality positive) and likely available http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/DRPM/position/1

Just a little surprised you would pass up a potential transcedent player because you don't feel he can guard PGs or in the case you want to peg him in at a wing position that you'd hesitate based on current personnel.

I guess I'll walk it back. You win! Donkic is the safest pick, for sure. Donkic/Booker would murder opposing defenses.

But I think there's a huge difference between not having a 'plus' PG defender and not having any PG defense whatsoever. You'd probably stick Book on the PG with that lineup. I think you'd be forced to make a trade pretty soon. Contrast that with adding Young or Ayton PLUS another piece and I could see it being at least a close call.

[bwgood77]

Nah. But obviously my concern is throwing out a bunch of players who play only offense and none of whom have ever dreamed of guarding the PG.

Yeah, I was going to mention that but assuming Young is gone I didn't imagine Ulis or Young doing any better than Doncic in that regard. And there are not really that many premier pg defenders, or many guys who are plus PG defenders, a positive on offense (at least starter quality positive) and likely available http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/DRPM/position/1

Just a little surprised you would pass up a potential transcedent player because you don't feel he can guard PGs or in the case you want to peg him in at a wing position that you'd hesitate based on current personnel.

I guess I'll walk it back. You win! Donkic is the safest pick, for sure. Donkic/Booker would murder opposing defenses.

But I think there's a huge difference between not having a 'plus' PG defender and not having any PG defense whatsoever. You'd probably stick Book on the PG with that lineup. I think you'd be forced to make a trade pretty soon. Contrast that with adding Young or Ayton PLUS another piece and I could see it being at least a close call.

What don't you like about Doncic's defense? You think Booker is a better PG defender? Wow. Or just that it's more important to put a better defender on the wing?

[JMac1]

The draft is a crapshoot year after year. If we are lucky enough (lol) to get a top 5 pick, I don’t want a big unless he can shoot like Kristaps.

[Biff]

The draft is a crapshoot year after year. If we are lucky enough (lol) to get a top 5 pick, I don’t want a big unless he can shoot like Kristaps.

Well, then maybe we'll get lucky and Porter will be available when we draft. I'm not convinced he's the next Durant but I think it's highly unlikely he's a bust unless he continues to have injury problems.

[kennydorglas]

Doncic is approaching the GOAT level of prospect for me.
6'8 (and still growing) PG with this wide range of skills.

Good luck trying to defend him in the NBA.

[Blonde]

If we were lucky enough to take Doncic I think the hope would be that we start Doncic/Booker/Jackson and let Jackson defend the elite PGs.

If we continue to go with Jackson and Warren at SF then the most important thing we need to do imo is add 3pt shooting at the PG position. Can't afford to have 3 non-shooters in the starting lineup anymore.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Yeah, I was going to mention that but assuming Young is gone I didn't imagine Ulis or Young doing any better than Doncic in that regard. And there are not really that many premier pg defenders, or many guys who are plus PG defenders, a positive on offense (at least starter quality positive) and likely available http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/DRPM/position/1

Just a little surprised you would pass up a potential transcedent player because you don't feel he can guard PGs or in the case you want to peg him in at a wing position that you'd hesitate based on current personnel.

I guess I'll walk it back. You win! Donkic is the safest pick, for sure. Donkic/Booker would murder opposing defenses.

But I think there's a huge difference between not having a 'plus' PG defender and not having any PG defense whatsoever. You'd probably stick Book on the PG with that lineup. I think you'd be forced to make a trade pretty soon. Contrast that with adding Young or Ayton PLUS another piece and I could see it being at least a close call.

What don't you like about Doncic's defense? You think Booker is a better PG defender? Wow. Or just that it's more important to put a better defender on the wing?

Doncic has a pretty big frame and while he's not slow-footed, I can't imagine having a thick 6-8 guy chasing primary ball handlers all over the court. You think he could manage?

I don't think I've heard it alleged that Doncic is projected as a plus defender... you think he will be?

[Biff]

Here's the difference I see between the top 5-6 guys this year vs the top guys last year:

What are the glaring holes in their games?

2017

Fultz: Played for a team was absolutely terrible. Does what he bring translate to wins? Had a bit of a suspect prima donna attitude.We haven't seen him play much so he's the biggest mystery so far.
Lonzo: One of the worst shooting forms in NBA history and so far that has made it difficult to get his shot off against NBA players. He has shot the ball much worse than anyone expected.
Tatum: I'll admit, I was totally wrong about this guy. His biggest flaw was is he athletic enough to play at a high level in the NBA. Pretty clear that he is.
Jackson: His biggest flaw was his shooting and that has certainly made life for him in the NBA difficult. He's a bad shooter for sure.
Fox: Shooting was also his biggest flaw. This has also made things difficult for him.
Isaac: Is a fluid/skilled enough for the wing? Is he big enough for a 4? So far I think he has had some trouble figuring out where he fits. But he has also been injured.
Markkanen: Can he rebound? Can he hang with bigs in the NBA? I think he has done well so far.
Ntilikina: Ball handling, shooting, athleticism/explosion and assertiveness. He has struggled with his shot but turnovers haven't been a huge problem.
Dennis Smith Jr: Injuries, decision making and playing under control. He's had some injury issues but I think he has played well when he's been on the court. Carlisle seems to have done a good job getting him to play under control.

2018:
Ayton: 3 point shooting? Is that really going to a problem for this guy?
Doncic: Defense? I'm not sure he's bad enough on defense for this to be a major issue given his shooting and playmaking ability.
Porter: Injuries? This could be legitimate. Dude is athletic as hell and can shoot the rock though. Was #1 prospect coming into the season.
Bagley: Shooting? He has been a better shooter than expected and I think he's big enough to play 5.
Bamba: Offensive role? Legitimate but I think he's shown flashes that he can put the ball in the hoop. He seems more adept than Deandre Jordan was at his age.
Young: Size? Also legitimate but the guy is leading a team that was worst in its conference last year to maybe a top 10 ranking this year. What he is doing is extremely impressive as a freshman. It's clear that he is having an enormous impact. I think his size isn't going to be a huge issue given his range and how skilled he is. He has great vision.

All 6 of those guys have few major weaknesses, whereas a lot of the guys from last year had some huge holes in their games.

[MathiasPW]

I guess I'll walk it back. You win! Donkic is the safest pick, for sure. Donkic/Booker would murder opposing defenses.

But I think there's a huge difference between not having a 'plus' PG defender and not having any PG defense whatsoever. You'd probably stick Book on the PG with that lineup. I think you'd be forced to make a trade pretty soon. Contrast that with adding Young or Ayton PLUS another piece and I could see it being at least a close call.

What don't you like about Doncic's defense? You think Booker is a better PG defender? Wow. Or just that it's more important to put a better defender on the wing?

Doncic has a pretty big frame and while he's not slow-footed, I can't imagine having a thick 6-8 guy chasing primary ball handlers all over the court. You think he could manage?

I don't think I've heard it alleged that Doncic is projected as a plus defender... you think he will be?

Booker will be a passable PG defender. He moves very well laterally and has size. You can see him blocking several drives per game already, and fighting effectively through screens.

[bwgood77]

If we were lucky enough to take Doncic I think the hope would be that we start Doncic/Booker/Jackson and let Jackson defend the elite PGs.

If we continue to go with Jackson and Warren at SF then the most important thing we need to do imo is add 3pt shooting at the PG position. Can't afford to have 3 non-shooters in the starting lineup anymore.

Yeah, that's been the theory, but Jackson has to play well enough to get on the court. If that happens, and TJ can be a super sub off the bench, we would have some real firepower on the court at all times.

[bwgood77]

I guess I'll walk it back. You win! Donkic is the safest pick, for sure. Donkic/Booker would murder opposing defenses.

But I think there's a huge difference between not having a 'plus' PG defender and not having any PG defense whatsoever. You'd probably stick Book on the PG with that lineup. I think you'd be forced to make a trade pretty soon. Contrast that with adding Young or Ayton PLUS another piece and I could see it being at least a close call.

What don't you like about Doncic's defense? You think Booker is a better PG defender? Wow. Or just that it's more important to put a better defender on the wing?

Doncic has a pretty big frame and while he's not slow-footed, I can't imagine having a thick 6-8 guy chasing primary ball handlers all over the court. You think he could manage?

I don't think I've heard it alleged that Doncic is projected as a plus defender... you think he will be?

No, it's been mentioned that he may need to slide down a position or two on defense in order to compensate for his foot speed. The thing is, I think there is so much switching going on that rarely does a guy defend the same guy. As I just mentioned, which has been talked about before, it would be nice if Jackson developed a shot and was less turnover prone and could start and defend the PG (or best wing if that was their best player) and we decide D based on matchups. It would also help if we had a disrupting big in the middle...someone long who could make it hard to drive to the basket. If Bender filled out he might be able to do this perfectly and could also switch onto smaller players.

From SI....

Doncic clearly has the smarts and passing chops to play point guard. These questions are akin to those many had about Ben Simmons as a point guard two years ago. Whatever team drafts Doncic will want to do so with an eye toward empowering him to run the show. Secondary playmaker status seems like a safe floor, but if Doncic features more as a two-guard, his gifts will be more difficult to maximize. He’s an unselfish, visionary passer, not a takeover-type scorer, and in his best case scenario would be able to run the show.

https://www.si.com/nba/2017/08/10/luka-doncic-nba-draft-slovenia-real-madrid-eurobasket