Cactus Jack wrote:darealjuice wrote:Cactus Jack wrote:Agreed. Better prospect than Chriss long-term.
I guarantee Murray doesn't turn out better than Chriss
You guarantee it?

Ok. What makes you say so?
I've seen them up close. Chriss is a good player. But, so is Murray. The reason Chriss is going to be drafted ahead of Murray is because he's an athletic big (Always valued more). I've seen Murray in the top 20 in a lot of mocks. How good a player ends up being, isn't determined by where they are drafted. Heck IT was the 60th pick. Its very possible Murray could end up the better player. His mentor is Jamal Crawford. A lot of Crawford to his game.
What makes you say Dejounte Murray will be? To me, Murray-type prospects are pretty much a dime-a-dozen. Low basketball IQ combo guards that get by on their athleticism without having a jump shot don't usually make it that far. He's got really good ball handling skills and gets to the rim well, but he was an inefficient scorer from basically everywhere on the court, his shot has bit of a hitch and his release isn't always the same, he was very loose with the ball both in transition and in the half court, he struggled to make the right or even simple pass leading him to being a turnover machine, he was really inconsistent and had trouble with guards of similar athleticism that were physical with him, and he was a very uninspired and undisciplined defender at Washington. He's a flashy transition player right now, everything to him is a fast break starting with him repeatedly trying to get his own shot while driving into multiple defenders. I think he's really fun to watch, especially when he plays against teams with less athletic guards that let him get into the lane at will, but he won't be able to get that done at the next level nearly as well as he does in college and his overall game needs a lot of refining. Don't get me wrong, if he gets ended up somewhere like the Clippers, Warriors, or Blazers and gets to grow in an environment that will emphasize guard development while he learns behind an elite guard, then he could have a shot at developing into a very good guard. I know you can say this about most prospects, but I think how his career is going to be is heavily dependent on where he gets drafted. This might sound like a lazy comparison considering he's sort of Murray's mentor, but I think his ceiling is somewhere around prime Jamal Crawford if he gets put in the right position and improve his jump shot significantly, which is good, but right now he's a lot like Archie Goodwin with significantly better ball handling and more playmaking ability.
The Marquese Chriss to Amare Stoudamire (I see very little similarity in their games), Ed Davis,
insert random bust big man that was only ever a dunker here, etc. comparisons are really lazy in my opinion. Bigs with his mobility, athleticism, and natural shooting stroke from outside are not common prospects, and those guys came into the league as guys that had very little ability outside of the paint. That's not to say Chriss is anywhere near a finished product, because he's not and definitely has some holes in his game that need to be patched up, but in my opinion he has the highest upside of anyone outside of the Top 2, the controversy on him is that he could have a lower floor than most players in the lottery. Part of why I think he'll being able to fill those holes is because he's only played competitive basketball for 4 years, so his bad habits shouldn't be deeply engrained, and his coaching at Washington was very sub par (no offense if you're a UW basketball fan, but not making being able to get into the tournament with the leading PAC scorer and 2 first rounders is pretty bad). After his rookie contract, he'll have doubled the amount of time that he's played basketball at a competitive level, which gives me a bit of optimism that he has a lot more room to continue to grow as a player and with good coaching can improve on his weaknesses and continue to refine his strengths. His defensive rebounding rate was terrible at Washington, but as far as I saw his issue lies in his technique once the shot goes up, not inability to rebound. He got caught watching the ball in the air when shots went up and trying to out jump his man a lot instead of getting his body into them, boxing them out, and creating space to get the board, but that shouldn't be too hard to drill into him. With the knack he showed for rebounding on the offensive end, I find it hard to believe that NBA coaches can't figure out a way to transfer a bit of that ability to the defensive end. His foul trouble is concerning, but hopefully correcting his rebounding issue will eliminate a lot of his unnecessary over-the-back fouls and working on his defensive discipline, especially not jumping at every shot fake guards give him when he gets caught out on a switch, will help him bring that down. I was impressed with his ability to be able to contain guards coming off of pick and rolls and not get beat to the rim, his problem was bailing them out with fouls on tough shots at the rim and getting caught in the air on shot fakes too frequently. His offensive skill set needs polish, but he's got a good base to work from with solid ball handling skills for his size, a smooth turn around jump shot in the mid-range, and a compact shot that he was able to hit pretty consistently from outside. I don't see him being a banger type of big like Thomas Robinson, Ed Davis, or a lot of the guys people here compare him to, none of those guys shot a remotely significant amount of mid-range or 3-point shots in college like Chriss did. He put up some of the highlight dunks those guys did, but in my opinion he'll project to be a Markieff Morris-type of Power Forward that can dive to the hoop, float around the mid-range, and step out on the perimeter, except he's twice as athletic, is taller and longer, plays well above the rim, is more fluid/mobile, is a much better rim protector, and hopefully has a lot less of the attitude. I agree with your thoughts that 4 is too early to draft him, but considering the flexibility we have in this draft with 3 first rounders and trade assets, you could argue he'd be worth a swing for the fences for if he knocks his workouts and interviews out of the park.
Maybe I shouldn't have said I
guarantee he'll be better, that was obviously a bit much considering we haven't seen either at the NBA level yet. I just think that Chriss will have a lot more opportunity to succeed in the league because he has a unique combination of top tier athleticism, size, and ability to play outside as a power forward, while Murray will be playing at the most talented and saturated position in the league right now and needs just as much work before he will see significant playing time. They both have potential to be good NBA players, and I wasn't trying to say Murray sucks or anything, I actually believe I've told you I like him as a prospect before and think he's underrated, but I really liked what I saw from Chriss when I watched Washington a good bit in conference play and how he closed out his season in the Pac 12 Tournament and NIT, and have been pretty high on him for awhile.