The Draft Thread: Ayton Vs Doncic 1

[bigfoot]

BW just quoted me saying history says pick Donic in a closed thread. Being the man that I am, I will admit that I have trepidation and I am scared as hell to go against my thought process like Portland did, not once, but twice!!!

The only thing that gives me solace or allows me to go against that thinking is Doncic inability to create like Jordan and Durant. I think Ayton is closer to Oden and Bowie than Doncic is to Jordan and Durant coming out of college.

It's such a horrible problem picking first when you have these two elite looking prospects. We get the number one pick but then don't have a clear ... Anthony Davis, Tim Duncan, Lebron James type draft were there is a consensus number one. Or a least 95% of the people saying he's the one to draft. This is a freaking 50/50 split (or close too). Please let us pick the Jordan/Durant one of Doncic/Ayton. I don't care which one so long as we don't get Oden/Bowie-ized.

Btw. I hope that Ayton to Bowie and Oden comparison did t come off wrong. I meant the expectations surrounding the pick. I definitely don’t want Ayton to be the next Oden or Bowie

I know but it just got me to looking at 1-2 picks in the past few years. Hardly any with two really good players. Of course jury is still out on some of them.


Blake Griffin/Hassheem Thabeet
John Wall/Evan Turner
Kyrie Irving / Derrick Williams
Anthony Davis / Michael Kidd Gilchrist
Anthony Bennett / Victor Oladipo
Andrew Wiggins / Jabari Parker
Karl Anthony Towns / D'Angelo Russell
Ben Simmons / Brandon Ingram
Markelle Fultz / Lonzo Ball

Seems the most likely player to come out on top has the best shooting/ball handling skills (Davis was PG at one time) . Again jury out on recent drafts.

[Saberestar]

No way Divac pass on Doncic. No way.

[bigfoot]

No way Divac pass on Doncic. No way.

Yeah I dont see that either. Or if we pick Doncic then Divac nabs Ayton. Sac is getting whoever we don't pick.

[bwgood77]

Here is another big board, though I'm sure everyone will disagree with the top....

https://deanondraft.com/2018/05/05/2018-big-board/

[JMac1]

Here is another big board, though I'm sure everyone will disagree with the top....

https://deanondraft.com/2018/05/05/2018-big-board/

JJJ on top...nah. No need for me to give you the time. Gotta be in the ball park.

[bwgood77]

Here is another big board, though I'm sure everyone will disagree with the top....

https://deanondraft.com/2018/05/05/2018-big-board/

JJJ on top...nah. No need for me to give you the time. Gotta be in the ball park.

Well I posted it more in case people were interested in reading the various write ups of prospects they are considering at each spot.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Here is another big board, though I'm sure everyone will disagree with the top....

https://deanondraft.com/2018/05/05/2018-big-board/

I have a college friend who works for one of the bb analytics sites and is pretty tied in around the league. I was chatting with him last week and he LOVES JJJ. Likes him more than Ayton. He's very high on Doncic too but is a bit concerned with his lack of length and the spotty track record of wings without elite length being superstars.

Couple of others of note. He is very high on Zaire Smith and Robert Williams and very low on Trae Young.

[thamadkant]

Here is another big board, though I'm sure everyone will disagree with the top....

https://deanondraft.com/2018/05/05/2018-big-board/

Not me.

In terms of role and expectations...

JJJ is the one player that will most likely contribute in both sides very well at minimum.

Shot blocker who can cover perimeter and inside... And someone who can finish lobs and nail 3s.

[TheLogician]

I think JJJ will grow the most from where he is now to what he will be one day, even more than Bamba. He is young and raw but should be a nice second or third option and defensive stopper.

[darealjuice]

Here is another big board, though I'm sure everyone will disagree with the top....

https://deanondraft.com/2018/05/05/2018-big-board/

Zhaire Smith being #4 and compared to Russell Westbrook was far more egregious to me. That comparison starts and stops at them being 3* high school prospects with elite athleticism. This quote specifically irked me: "It’s not clear how Zhaire’s handle compares to Russ at the same age, but there is no evidence it is drastically worse." It takes 2 minutes of watching tape to see how clear the difference in their ball handling skills is in college. Russ's handle was raw, but he was still clearly dynamic with the ball in his hands. Zhaire Smith is almost purely a straight line driver right now, and his dribble can literally get up near his shoulder.

[JMac1]

Here is another big board, though I'm sure everyone will disagree with the top....

https://deanondraft.com/2018/05/05/2018-big-board/

JJJ on top...nah. No need for me to give you the time. Gotta be in the ball park.

Well I posted it more in case people were interested in reading the various write ups of prospects they are considering at each spot.

I hear you and appreciate many other perspectives, but damn, be in the ball park. JJJ is all projection based off of advanced stats... I don't get down that way.

[jcsunsfan]

Here is another big board, though I'm sure everyone will disagree with the top....

https://deanondraft.com/2018/05/05/2018-big-board/

Zhaire Smith at #4. Porter Jr at #12. JJJr at #1. Ayton at #3. Well its stuff like this that gets you clicks.

[JMac1]

I think JJJ will grow the most from where he is now to what he will be one day, even more than Bamba. He is young and raw but should be a nice second or third option and defensive stopper.

Damn. I don't know who you are but I realize I agree with you on everything so far. That could mean trouble for you , however, you aren't as pugnacious in your retorts like I am, so that bodes well for you.

[TheLogician]

I think JJJ will grow the most from where he is now to what he will be one day, even more than Bamba. He is young and raw but should be a nice second or third option and defensive stopper.

Damn. I don't know who you are but I realize I agree with you on everything so far. That could mean trouble for you , however, you aren't as pugnacious in your retorts like I am, so that bodes well for you.

Haha, different approaches but equally great minds.

Fwiw, I'm no one special, just a college hoops fan and longtime lurker. I remember ginobliflops and the insiders of a decade ago. I even remember Kerrsed's first post!

[WeekapaugGroove]

Doncic and Ayton are my clear top 2.

But JJJ, mikil bridges and carter are three lotto picks who short of injury are locks to be very good nba players. Upside is the only q with these 3.

[mabundo_nagumbe]

Regarding Doncic's lack of athleticism , I just picked this post from reddit:

Honestly, many, many guys who had "athletic concerns" going into the draft turned out fine -- Harden, Jamal Murray, Reddick, Gordon Hayward, Jabari, Khris Middleton. I think the number of guys who succeeded because they were good at basketball is at least equal to the number of great athletes who who were not good at basketball and never learned.
I've saved this to reuse, because people insist that this was not the conventional wisdom about James Harden, but let's look at some of the scouting about him going into his draft:

His leaping ability and quickness are only marginal, which forces him into tough and contested drives and makes it hard for him to get by people …

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/james-harden

And despite how good he was at Arizona State the last two seasons, he does have some flaws as a prospect. The biggest issue for most scouts will be his athleticism, or relative lack thereof. Harden will not be entering the dunk contest, and he lacks an explosive first step.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/179386-nba-draft-prospects-james-harden-arizona-state

A lot of Harden's efficiency comes from an area that most probably wouldn't expect it to. In spite of his perceived athletic limitations, Harden was a terrific finisher around the basket this season. - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/James-Harden-1241/ ©DraftExpress

He also had problems finishing around the basket, which is not surprising considering that he’s not terribly explosive. - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/James-Harden-1241/ ©DraftExpress

The first thing that stands out about Harden is the fact that he is likely to be considered a below average athlete for the NBA level. His first step and pure explosiveness are nothing to write home about, meaning he has to find other ways to make his presence felt. - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/James-Harden-1241/ ©DraftExpress

[TheLogician]

Point taken, but Harden had unreal offensive awareness. He knew how to score and get by people better than almost any college player I've seen. He was actually a very good college defender and led the Pac-10 in steals as a freshman.

[DirtyDez]

I remember Harden being very shifty at ASU and being a pretty good leaper.

Watch on YouTube

;t=82s

[DirtyDez]

Here is another big board, though I'm sure everyone will disagree with the top....

https://deanondraft.com/2018/05/05/2018-big-board/

Good to see some more breakdowns now that DX has gone insider. I’ve been having to go to .net which moved Doncic from 2 to 5 today. Probably based on Givony’s latest article.

[Fo-Real]

I can see and understand why Doncic drops behind Bagley and maybe Bamba, but that’s it. He is bigger and better than Trae. MPJ....injury, and JJJ role-player. But I’d draft him no later than 3 and that would be on a coin flip. I love Bagley as you guys know.

I agree with these statements.