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2023-24 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - the calm before the storm

Moderators: bwgood77, Qwigglez, lilfishi22

Who will get the 7/8 seeds?

Pelicans/Lakers
2
13%
Pelicans/Warriors
2
13%
Pelicans/Kings
0
No votes
Lakers/Pelicans
4
25%
Lakers/Warriors
5
31%
Lakers/Kings
3
19%
 
Total votes: 16

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Re: 2023-24 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - The final stretch 

Post#1641 » by bwgood77 » Fri Apr 5, 2024 5:18 pm

lilfishi22 wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
lilfishi22 wrote:I just think our issues (esp in the 4th) really stick out like a nail with CP3 being the guy who could hammer it in. Obviously I'm happy with Beal but when looking specifically at what I think is probably our biggest issue so far in the regular season, CP3 seems to be the perfect problem solver. Of course, we also give up a lot elsewhere with CP3 being who he is at this point.


CP3 was awesome and money in the clutch from the mid range...but he can't do that anymore for whatever reason. Two years ago he was 56% from 3-10 ft and 59% from 10-16 ft. Last year he was 42% from 3-10ft and 47% from 10-16 ft. At the rim he went from 77% to 62%. This year his %s are a little better from the mid range but on very very low volume. He almost exclusively takes 3s, but is up to 38%....so that's his game....he was 33% from 3 two years ago when he was great from mid range, and up to 37% last year, so he's been focusing on that. He's only taken it to the rim (or inside 3 ft) 9x this year.


I'm not even talking about the CP3 who could just spam the middy pull up and control the 4th like strings on a puppet . *That* CP3, I would take over this Beal as I'm sure most would too. But even the broken down CP3 we got last year was still able to help us get to basically neutral in the 4th (-16pts net points). Only team worse than us (-224) this season is last season's Spurs team (-322). It's so bad, if you take the scoring differential of the 2nd and 3rd worst 4th quarter teams (Miami and Toronto) and add them together, it still doesn't come close (-179). The 64 win season where we were just locking teams down defensively, then executing offensively was far and away the best 4th quarter team in the league and also almost exactly the opposite in net scoring (+221) to this season.

I think one of the biggest, if not the biggest factor is losing CP3's game management. Even when he wasn't close to all-star level, he was still able to bring that to the table and make us close to respectable. As much as I like Beal and what he brings to the table, he just doesn't bring that, nor anyone on this team.


That was an entirely different team though for most of the season..I don't think that's very comparable.
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Re: 2023-24 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - The final stretch 

Post#1642 » by bwgood77 » Fri Apr 5, 2024 5:19 pm

Saberestar wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:Or I guess you meant you think Dallas would finish 4th. I typed all that up and just realized that.

Yeah, I think Dallas can be 4th if we win both games to the Clippers.

The Clippers won to the Nuggets tonight so they are in a better position now to finish 5th at worst, it would be very strange for them to lose so many games to end 6th or even in the Play-In.


Yeah, I was talking to a Mavs fan about the Clips and he doesn't want to play them at all. He says "we always get them with a healthy Kawhi and then he gets injured in the next round". They faced them 2 years in a row in the first round.

I'll be surprised if the Clips fall much, given they have 2 games against Utah and one against the Rockets at home, AND already have a 2 game lead on 5th.

Dallas could potentially catch them since they have the easiest schedule. Clips have the tiebreaker on the Mavs though. I'm good with 6th...just hope to avoid OKC.

Our most important games are Sac and the other one with the Pelicans. Those teams certainly are not out of the running for 6th. We are still tied with the Pelicans with Ingram coming back soon and the Kings are 1 game back of us but if they beat us they gain that game and the tiebreaker.

And just when you think we are playing really well and get confident, we throw a stinker in there. But usually a hot Book stays hot for 3-4 games.
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Re: 2023-24 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - The final stretch 

Post#1643 » by bwgood77 » Fri Apr 5, 2024 5:24 pm

sunskerr wrote:
Calvin Klein wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:CP3 was awesome and money in the clutch from the mid range...but he can't do that anymore for whatever reason. Two years ago he was 56% from 3-10 ft and 59% from 10-16 ft. Last year he was 42% from 3-10ft and 47% from 10-16 ft. At the rim he went from 77% to 62%. This year his %s are a little better from the mid range but on very very low volume. He almost exclusively takes 3s, but is up to 38%....so that's his game....he was 33% from 3 two years ago when he was great from mid range, and up to 37% last year, so he's been focusing on that. He's only taken it to the rim (or inside 3 ft) 9x this year.


He just doesn't have the physical tools anymore to be good at attacking the rim and be as good as he was in pull up jumpers. He's too old now.

But he can still run an offense.

We were lucky to have him during his last great years. The Denver series was a masterpiece. He was just toying with Campazzo and Rivers. And then game 6 against the Clippers and New Orleans. Masterpieces.


Yep CP3 got old and looked every bit of 38-39 years on a court full of guys in their 20s and early 30s. As a wise man once said "you ain't got no legs lieutenant Dan"

More players are playing into their mid 30s now but the real frontier has always been to push it closer to 40 where only a select few have been able to do it and there's no shame in not doing so.

Physically for literally every athlete in sports that needs lower body explosiveness that 35-40 range is where things start to fall off dramatically even though we have good (DARKO) data that most guys in the NBA actually start declining at 29. It's an ever so slight decline then 35-40 is just off a cliff.

This data reveals the human limits imo and will probably require some new PEDs to be overcome.


Yeah, CP3 is the oldest player in the NBA (along with PJ Tucker) except for superhuman LeBron. So I don't know how much more you can expect from them. No player his age has contributed much, outside of LeBron.

Stockton kind of did. His shooting dropped off at 39 and 40 (his last years). Nash's first year with the Lakers he declined and played 50 games...and Paul will be older than he was then next year. When Nash hit 40 is when his back went out and he only played 15 games. CP3 I think will maybe get a minimum or at best a 1 year MLE with team option or something.
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Re: 2023-24 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - The final stretch 

Post#1644 » by sunsbg » Fri Apr 5, 2024 5:35 pm

CP3 is old but we were happy with triple single from Beal last game so maybe not that much of a difference especially considering the salaries. Also Beal is as injury-prone as CP3 if not more while being several years younger.
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Re: 2023-24 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - The final stretch 

Post#1645 » by bwgood77 » Fri Apr 5, 2024 5:39 pm

ImNotMcDiSwear wrote:
Calvin Klein wrote:
sunskerr wrote:
Yep CP3 got old and looked every bit of 38-39 years on a court full of guys in their 20s and early 30s. As a wise man once said "you ain't got no legs lieutenant Dan"

More players are playing into their mid 30s now but the real frontier has always been to push it closer to 40 where only a select few have been able to do it and there's no shame in not doing so.

Physically for literally every athlete in sports that needs lower body explosiveness that 35-40 range is where things start to fall off dramatically even though we have good (DARKO) data that most guys in the NBA actually start declining at 29. It's an ever so slight decline then 35-40 is just off a cliff.

This data reveals the human limits imo and will probably require some new PEDs to be overcome.


And this is basically the main reason that I think the KD trade was stupid. Considering his injury history, the fact that he is playing at this level is a miracle. Even Lebron, who never missed time, started missing lots of games when he was over 35.

Even if you do avoid injuries, you just can't perform at a high level every night. It starts to happen every 2 or 3 games instead.


Counterpoint: this entire season. If the KD trade was bad, it's not because the return wasn't awesome. He's exceeded my expectations so far. On the other side of the ledger, Cam and Mikal have disappointed this season - and combined, the twins make only a few million less than KD.

While we haven't been as successful this season as we were in recent years - that story is about CP3, IMO. Dude was All-NBA with us for 2.5 seasons, but his age showed in the playoffs. Without him - even replacing him with Beal, I think - Booker/Mikal/Cam/Ayton just wasn't a strong enough foundation to build on. I thought the vibes of the team had become stale, much like the 7SOL Suns right before we dealt Marion for Shaq in a similar move.

While I've been pretty vocal about thinking this squad is doomed, I can't fault us for the KD trade. It's the reason we're not in the lottery this year. And IMO, KD still has substantial trade value.


I hated the KD trade obviously, no secret there, but I thought we'd probably be a little better this year if he could stay healthy (and it's crazy awesome he has).....it's more about after that. To retool around Book/Bridges/Cam with whoever we traded Jae and Ayton for...probably have Allen...while they are still in their early primes...gives us more time. Plus all our first rounders. To me it's not more about 1 or maybe 2 years and comparing the teams, but the next 10. Cam is playing well...his best assist year, still shooting 40% from 3. Mikal, I know you never were that high on, but he's a 3rd option team chemistry guy...he will never look consistently great as a first option, or co-first option.

Though I also thought the 7SOL Suns would have been much better keeping Marion. We were 34-14 that year when we traded him...best team in the west. We finished 55-27 after the remaining games with Shaq, or 21-13 and lost in the first round.

Amare was out the entire previous season and we still advanced pretty far in the playoffs, and then with our team healthy with Marion, we start 34-14. Not sure how that team was stale. Then we trade for a shell of himself Shaq, while Marion was still in his prime at 29.

Oh well. As far as KD trade value, I think he's have pretty good value now, to a team that wanted him and had the assets, likely the Knicks, but I don't think we trade him this summer, and I think his value will definitely go down after next season, or by the trade deadline. He will be 36 win next season starts and 37 when the following season starts. That's when everyone but LeBron starts to typically decline.

There is also a reasonably decent chance he faces injury next year which would significanly diminish his trade value while also maybe taking our team out of the running.

Basically, if we end up trading him after a first or second round exit, I don't think whatever return we get will have been better than what we gave up, and we would have been out the 23 pick in the process which is a guy who could already be a key piece.

Anyway, I know the forum is pretty divided on whether or not the KD trade was the right move...and likely no one's opinion on that will change. Luckily he has stayed healthy which was one of my biggest concerns.
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Re: 2023-24 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - The final stretch 

Post#1646 » by bwgood77 » Fri Apr 5, 2024 5:44 pm

sunsbg wrote:Point Book + Mikal/Cam/Ayton is not a better team than current one. You still need at least a Rubio level PG to be top 4 team in WC. Once again, Haliburton would've been perfect. Biggest Jones blunder IMO.


No, it's not a better team now, but like Redick said on his pod, you need stars and role players, not just stars. But we likely are a better team 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 years from now with a lot of cheap rookie contracts with a pretty nice young core.

Though even without the KD trade, I still would have made that no brainer CP3 and Shamet for Beal trade, Jae for Grayson Allen and Ayton for the best we could get...or the same Ayton deal and the 5 2nds for Jae.

I think Beal/Book/Bridges/Cam/Nurkic + Allen as 6th man, keep Payne, still get Royce O'Neale when available, etc would be good. Beal definitely could be secondary scorer and Bridges a solid 3rd guy that is highly valued around the league.

But yeah, we are probably better this year....and maybe next if KD stays healthy again.
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Re: 2023-24 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - The final stretch 

Post#1647 » by Saberestar » Fri Apr 5, 2024 5:53 pm

sunsbg wrote:CP3 is old but we were happy with triple single from Beal last game so maybe not that much of a difference especially considering the salaries. Also Beal is as injury-prone as CP3 if not more while being several years younger.

Beal averages 17.4 points and CP3 averages 9.2 points. The difference is HUGE.

And Beal has had a bunch of weird small injuries but nothing serious. He looks explosive and healthy.
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Re: 2023-24 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - The final stretch 

Post#1648 » by darealjuice » Fri Apr 5, 2024 5:54 pm

CP3 is definitely a better fit than Beal for our roster, but we had to trade CP3. His contract was about to expire with no benefit to our cap situation, and it's too risky to give him another contract at his age. It's possible we could have found a better fit than Beal though. We still had plenty of other opportunities to bring in a point guard too, even if it was just someone off the bench.

I appreciate Beal adjusting his game to fit with the roster, but the reality is that he's nowhere near good enough at point guard to make as much money as he does. Tough situation though since he's probably not going anywhere lol.

I'm on the bandwagon for starting Royce as well. Nothing against Grayson at all, he's been huge for us this year and I'd like him here long-term, but we have plenty of offense in our starting lineup and need more size and defense. He'd be great as a sixth man for us, much better than relying on EG to be our offense off the bench.
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Re: 2023-24 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - The final stretch 

Post#1649 » by sunsbg » Fri Apr 5, 2024 7:08 pm

Saberestar wrote:
sunsbg wrote:CP3 is old but we were happy with triple single from Beal last game so maybe not that much of a difference especially considering the salaries. Also Beal is as injury-prone as CP3 if not more while being several years younger.

Beal averages 17.4 points and CP3 averages 9.2 points. The difference is HUGE.

And Beal has had a bunch of weird small injuries but nothing serious. He looks explosive and healthy.


So less than 2:1 difference. Beal's scoring has not translated to wins and now he's focusing on other stuff as Suns already have Book/KD. If you care so much about numbers - apg/to 6/1 vs 2/1 for CP3. Games 52 vs 47 for CP3. Don't get me wrong I'll still take Beal, but pretending Beal has been HUGE for this team so far is far from reality.
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Re: 2023-24 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - The final stretch 

Post#1650 » by Saberestar » Fri Apr 5, 2024 7:26 pm

sunsbg wrote:
Saberestar wrote:
sunsbg wrote:CP3 is old but we were happy with triple single from Beal last game so maybe not that much of a difference especially considering the salaries. Also Beal is as injury-prone as CP3 if not more while being several years younger.

Beal averages 17.4 points and CP3 averages 9.2 points. The difference is HUGE.

And Beal has had a bunch of weird small injuries but nothing serious. He looks explosive and healthy.


So less than 2:1 difference. Beal's scoring has not translated to wins and now he's focusing on other stuff as Suns already have Book/KD. If you care so much about numbers - apg/to 6/1 vs 2/1 for CP3. Games 52 vs 47 for CP3. Don't get me wrong I'll still take Beal, but pretending Beal has been HUGE for this team so far is far from reality.

Beal has been much better than CP3 this season, this isn't even debatable

Look, I have been a CP3 fan and I know his game PRETTY WELL, he was solid last year (not All-Star but solid starting PG) but he is a shell of himself this season. We made the right move.

It's sad but he is nearly 39 years-old, so he can proud about his longevity in the NBA.
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Re: 2023-24 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - The final stretch 

Post#1651 » by sunskerr » Fri Apr 5, 2024 7:43 pm

bwgood77 wrote:
sunskerr wrote:
Calvin Klein wrote:
He just doesn't have the physical tools anymore to be good at attacking the rim and be as good as he was in pull up jumpers. He's too old now.

But he can still run an offense.

We were lucky to have him during his last great years. The Denver series was a masterpiece. He was just toying with Campazzo and Rivers. And then game 6 against the Clippers and New Orleans. Masterpieces.


Yep CP3 got old and looked every bit of 38-39 years on a court full of guys in their 20s and early 30s. As a wise man once said "you ain't got no legs lieutenant Dan"

More players are playing into their mid 30s now but the real frontier has always been to push it closer to 40 where only a select few have been able to do it and there's no shame in not doing so.

Physically for literally every athlete in sports that needs lower body explosiveness that 35-40 range is where things start to fall off dramatically even though we have good (DARKO) data that most guys in the NBA actually start declining at 29. It's an ever so slight decline then 35-40 is just off a cliff.

This data reveals the human limits imo and will probably require some new PEDs to be overcome.


Yeah, CP3 is the oldest player in the NBA (along with PJ Tucker) except for superhuman LeBron. So I don't know how much more you can expect from them. No player his age has contributed much, outside of LeBron.

Stockton kind of did. His shooting dropped off at 39 and 40 (his last years). Nash's first year with the Lakers he declined and played 50 games...and Paul will be older than he was then next year. When Nash hit 40 is when his back went out and he only played 15 games. CP3 I think will maybe get a minimum or at best a 1 year MLE with team option or something.


I feel like Nash's real last great year was 2010, his 35 year old season. Averaged 16 ppg at 35, then after that he declined to 14 ppg and again to 12 ppg in 37 (his last year for us, 2012, he did make the all star game though). All those years he was about 32 mpg.

This is also, perhaps not even coincidentally, almost the exact same decline Paul took in his 35-36-37 age seasons with us. Playing around 32 mpg each year he went from 16 ppg, to 14.7, to 13.9.
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Re: 2023-24 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - The final stretch 

Post#1652 » by Hitachi77 » Fri Apr 5, 2024 9:35 pm

SunsRback4Good wrote:I can’t wait to watch Caitlin Clark tonight she’s like a newer more improved Steph Curry.


You think she is better than Steph Curry? Lol
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Re: 2023-24 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - The final stretch 

Post#1653 » by SunsRback4Good » Fri Apr 5, 2024 9:44 pm

Hitachi77 wrote:
SunsRback4Good wrote:I can’t wait to watch Caitlin Clark tonight she’s like a newer more improved Steph Curry.


You think she is better than Steph Curry? Lol


No, but she has the swag and demeanor of Stephen Curry. I was always amazed by Diana Tarausi when watching her play, but Caitlin is build differently she has crazy range and not afraid of the big moment to shine.
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Re: 2023-24 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - The final stretch 

Post#1655 » by lilfishi22 » Sat Apr 6, 2024 4:30 am

bwgood77 wrote:
lilfishi22 wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
CP3 was awesome and money in the clutch from the mid range...but he can't do that anymore for whatever reason. Two years ago he was 56% from 3-10 ft and 59% from 10-16 ft. Last year he was 42% from 3-10ft and 47% from 10-16 ft. At the rim he went from 77% to 62%. This year his %s are a little better from the mid range but on very very low volume. He almost exclusively takes 3s, but is up to 38%....so that's his game....he was 33% from 3 two years ago when he was great from mid range, and up to 37% last year, so he's been focusing on that. He's only taken it to the rim (or inside 3 ft) 9x this year.


I'm not even talking about the CP3 who could just spam the middy pull up and control the 4th like strings on a puppet . *That* CP3, I would take over this Beal as I'm sure most would too. But even the broken down CP3 we got last year was still able to help us get to basically neutral in the 4th (-16pts net points). Only team worse than us (-224) this season is last season's Spurs team (-322). It's so bad, if you take the scoring differential of the 2nd and 3rd worst 4th quarter teams (Miami and Toronto) and add them together, it still doesn't come close (-179). The 64 win season where we were just locking teams down defensively, then executing offensively was far and away the best 4th quarter team in the league and also almost exactly the opposite in net scoring (+221) to this season.

I think one of the biggest, if not the biggest factor is losing CP3's game management. Even when he wasn't close to all-star level, he was still able to bring that to the table and make us close to respectable. As much as I like Beal and what he brings to the table, he just doesn't bring that, nor anyone on this team.


That was an entirely different team though for most of the season..I don't think that's very comparable.

This team is far more potent but far worse in the 4tj
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Re: 2023-24 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - The final stretch 

Post#1656 » by ImNotMcDiSwear » Sat Apr 6, 2024 5:47 pm

bwgood77 wrote:Basically, if we end up trading him after a first or second round exit, I don't think whatever return we get will have been better than what we gave up, and we would have been out the 23 pick in the process which is a guy who could already be a key piece.


From your responses, it seems to me that this is the essence of your view on the KD trade - that we can't get back the value we gave up for him. Obviously - for sure. I think we can get the picks back - maybe even a little more - but we're not getting young talent like Mikal and Cam. If we did, we wouldn't get as much (or any) value in picks. But yes, we spent assets to get where we are.

I essentially agree with you also on the idea that by not making the KD trade, we'd have had more time to try to build a contender. I just didn't have any faith that that approach would work. Booker's good, but he's not Doncic, and I couldn't see us getting another player as good as CP3 was for us his first two seasons. All those draft picks would have been in the teens, I think. Our salary situation would have been just as unsustainable as it is currently. None of DA/Cam/Mikal were ever going to be good enough to be a "second star." So the only way they would ever be a real contender, it seemed to me, was to draft a superstar with a relatively low pick in 2024, 2025, and so on. Meanwhile, player's contracts come up for extension... it just seemed like a longer road to nowhere. NBA purgatory. I'm not pining for that.

I pine for the days when we had high draft picks on the horizon for years to come, and Devin Booker on his rookie contract, just waiting to bust out. With a front office as good as OKC's, we'd have been stacked no matter which draft we finally nailed. The lotto picks we missed on is too dang impressive a list: Sabonis, Jamal Murray, Fox, Lauri, Donovan Mitchell, Adebayo, Doncic, Shai, Trae Young and Hallburton were all available and projected within the range of our selections.

But you know, I was against trading DA for Sabonis when the deal was being discussed. So it's not like everything's always so obvious. But that ship sailed, I just couldn't see us getting a guy as good as one of those listed above without sacrificing our core. KD's better than all but two guys on that list. So as I saw it, moving some of those core pieces for second star was inevitable - there was no way other way to grab that second star,. You simply can't turn back the clock.

... But you can turn the clock forward. By burning it all down.

We'll see whether this postseason gives us enough reason to believe this roster is worth investing another $300 million or whatever it would cost to make this team better next season. One thing we agree on is how much we should project KD's trade value to go down if we do that.

Booker to Brooklyn and KD to (presumably) the Knicks is the only thing that makes to me if we want to try to get back to the world of endless high picks on the horizon - the only way to move the clock forward. Had we dealt Booker, Mikal and Cam instead - we'd probably have a few more high picks in our stash than would result from taking the route I'm advocating, I guess. But the situation wouldn't be very different - unless Brooklyn won't give us all our picks back, in which case - yeah, I guess it'd be pretty tough.
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Re: 2023-24 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - The final stretch 

Post#1657 » by Ghost of Kleine » Sat Apr 6, 2024 7:10 pm

I agree with the vast majority of what NotMcD said above!

Only difference in perspective ( which might he minimal) is in that for my part, the single most critical assessment of our future and advisable direction will come no sooner than the start of trade deadline next season. I think we'll have to absolutely set a deadline for a directional assessment of this rosters' ceiling outcome vs cost. And make a strong decision on the franchise's best interests no later than the start of next seasons' trade deadline.


Now I fully understand the implied risks with KDs' inevitable age/ injury related depreciation, BUT given the ultimate cost and level of investment attached to this roster, I believe that we'll absolutely try to squeeze as much value from this super team premise as possible before ultimately conceding to blow things up!

And even though that may surely be the most logical pathway to get back on track sooner rather than later, I'd think the front office and moreover Ishbia himself will keep BOTH Booker AND Beal off the table along with maybe Allen too, and really only make KD, Nurkic, O'neale, etc available this summer in an attempt to not fully concede his position.


I believe Ishbia will rather look to do a soft, quick reconstruct around a Book and Beal backcourt, while trying to upgrade a few positions through trading KD, and possibly swapping out Nurkic for a more athletic, more laterally mobile center option and some wing defense if possible. Regardless, we'll have to absolutely crush draft night!! And creatively optimize whatever pick range we end up at. And we'll gave to prioritize a strong, physical, very athletic, long, mobile backup 4/5 option, and then second a skilled table setting/ versatile playmaking backup guard option.

Outside of the draft, a strong defensive wing option and/or a potent floor spacing jumbo wing ( at least 6'8 to 6'9 if possible)??? :nod:
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Re: 2023-24 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - The final stretch 

Post#1658 » by bwgood77 » Sat Apr 6, 2024 9:00 pm

ImNotMcDiSwear wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:Basically, if we end up trading him after a first or second round exit, I don't think whatever return we get will have been better than what we gave up, and we would have been out the 23 pick in the process which is a guy who could already be a key piece.


From your responses, it seems to me that this is the essence of your view on the KD trade - that we can't get back the value we gave up for him. Obviously - for sure. I think we can get the picks back - maybe even a little more - but we're not getting young talent like Mikal and Cam. If we did, we wouldn't get as much (or any) value in picks. For sure, we spent assets to get where we are.

I essentially agree with you also on the idea that by not making the KD trade, we'd have had more time to try to build a contender. I don't necessarily disagree - I just didn't have any faith that that approach would work. Booker's good, but he's not Doncic, and I couldn't see us getting another player as good as CP3 was for us his first two seasons. All those draft picks would have been in the teens, I think. Our salary situation would have been just as unsustainable as it is currently. None of DA/Cam/Mikal were ever going to be good enough to be a "second star." So the only way they would ever be a real contender, it seemed to me, was to draft a superstar with a relatively low pick in 2024, 2025, and so on. Meanwhile, player's contracts come up for extension... it just seemed like a longer road to nowhere. NBA purgatory. I'm not pining for that.

I pine for the days when we had high draft picks on the horizon for days to come, and Devin Booker on his rookie contract, just waiting to bust out. With a front office as good as OKC's, we'd have been stacked no matter which draft we finally nailed. The lotto picks we missed on is too dang impressive a list: Sabonis, Jamal Murray, Fox, Lauri, Donovan Mitchell, Adebayo, Doncic, Shai, Trae Young and Hallburton were all available and projected within the range of our selections.

But you know, I was against trading DA for Sabonis when the deal was being discussed. So it's not like everything's always so obvious. I get that. But I just couldn't see us getting a guy as good as one of those listed above without sacrificing our core. KD's better than all but two guys on that list. So as I saw it, a move like that was inevitable. You simply can't turn back the clock.

... But you can turn the clock forward. By burning it all down.

We'll see whether this postseason gives us enough reason to believe this roster is worth investing another $300 million or whatever it would cost to make this team better next season. One thing we agree on is how large we should project KD's trade value to go down if we do that.

Booker to Brooklyn and KD to (presumably) the Knicks is the only thing that makes to me if we want to try to get back to the world of endless high picks on the horizon. Had we dealt Booker, Mikal and Cam instead - we'd probably have a few more high picks in our stash than would result from taking the route I'm advocating, I guess. But the situation wouldn't be very different - unless Brooklyn won't give us all our picks back, in which case - yeah, I guess it'd be pretty tough.


I get you. If we realized after another year with Booker, Bridges, Cam, Allen (if we traded Jae for him like he was offered), Beal (same trade), and whoever we got for DA, then we could still have all or most all our picks and deal Bridges for the 4 firsts other teams were offering, Cam for maybe a first, and Booker for a haul and have all our own picks, plus like 8 or 9 more from Booker, Bridges and Cam. Beal's contract wouldn't be an issue given we would have all rookie contracts for a while and he could be the vet mentor...sure we could have just let CP3 and Shamet expire but you need to get to minimum cap anyway, and if we wanted to give the team another try or two with Grayson, Beal and an Ayton replacement instead of old CP3, Ayton and Crowder, we may have had a chance and more depth.

But in this case we wouldn't have traded away a bunch of unprotected picks and still could have added 8 or 9 more. I basically liked all our offseason moves...just wasn't a fan at all of the KD trade, because I thought our chemistry, youth, etc, was strong and we still had assets. KD has been awesome though and healthy. Health was part of the reason I didn't like it aside from age and a likely decline soon like we had with CP3. We knew CP3 was done though and probably didn't dream we could get Beal for CP3's corpse.

The good thing is, we are playing very well now, so if we can win a ring, it will have been worth it, and we can go for it again next year. It just may be real tough after that to not be in no man's land unless they trade Book which I'm not sure they will ever be willing to do unless he asks for it.
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Re: 2023-24 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - The final stretch 

Post#1659 » by schnakenpopanz » Sun Apr 7, 2024 1:06 am

it will clearly depend on the play off run the suns might have, a close battly into the semis or WCF would not be described as a disaster, but loosing in the play-in, 1st round might be a click to blow it up.
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Re: 2023-24 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - The final stretch 

Post#1660 » by spanishninja » Sun Apr 7, 2024 5:04 am

bwgood77 wrote:
sunsbg wrote:Point Book + Mikal/Cam/Ayton is not a better team than current one. You still need at least a Rubio level PG to be top 4 team in WC. Once again, Haliburton would've been perfect. Biggest Jones blunder IMO.


No, it's not a better team now, but like Redick said on his pod, you need stars and role players, not just stars. But we likely are a better team 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 years from now with a lot of cheap rookie contracts with a pretty nice young core.

Though even without the KD trade, I still would have made that no brainer CP3 and Shamet for Beal trade, Jae for Grayson Allen and Ayton for the best we could get...or the same Ayton deal and the 5 2nds for Jae.

I think Beal/Book/Bridges/Cam/Nurkic + Allen as 6th man, keep Payne, still get Royce O'Neale when available, etc would be good. Beal definitely could be secondary scorer and Bridges a solid 3rd guy that is highly valued around the league.

But yeah, we are probably better this year....and maybe next if KD stays healthy again.


in today's league, virtually nobody builds a team considering 5+ years from now, unless you are playing the forever tank game like Philly and OKC, and that doesn't always work. Even Houston wanted to accelerate their rebuild by bringing in FVV and Udoka.

And a Beal/Book/Bridge/Cam/Nurk lineup is most definitely not doing better than what we have. upside is much lower, and assuming Beal and Book would have been injured at the start of the season, there would have been no KD to carry us. Did we already forget how many games he singlehandedly kept us in when it was just him out there? Bridges and Cam weren't doing that, or are there people who still think Mikal is a legit 1st or even 2nd option on a good team?

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