NBA Draft and NCAA Basketball

[bwgood77]

I think this recent stretch does drop Young unless he can ball out for this final stretch. Partly because I don't think he had risen as much for teams as he had with some draft sites and with fans. Teams have scouting reports on these guys since high school so a guy like him who was ranked in the 20's for his class coming in teams will put some stock into that and when I guy shoots up the boards I think they sometimes try to find reasons doubt that rise; this stretch is giving them those reasons and confirmation on their original thoughts on him.

Now it only takes one team desperate for a PG to fall in love with what he does well and draft him around the 5-7 range but it wouldn't shock me if he went closer to 10 than 5 at this point.

The very best the Suns could hope for with the Miami pick is probably around 12 (they finish 9th in the East and two non-playoff teams in the West are better). I doubt he makes it there but I don't think it's completely impossible.

Most everywhere I've looked had him more at like 6-7, but the thing is, Collin Sexton has dropped more and no other pgs have been terribly impressive. Even comparing side by side you can see he still has by far the highest 3pt fg%....Sexton down at 32% and the other guys don't really shoot them much...very low volume.

By far the best TS%, the most assists...now some can point out he has the most turnovers, but still a better ast/to ratio than Sexton and Gilgeous-Alexander. Duval has a slightly better one but he passes less and shoots 27% from 3.

For the comparison... http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?preset=top-pg

So for a team that wants a PG, he should be ranked the highest, not counting Doncic. I think Orlando and Cleveland probably takes PGs, so it depends on where we draft and who we want.

There is a lot to determine for us watching these prospects down the stretch and also watching Payton. I'd be pretty shocked though if McD ever had Young higher than 7, unless he just had a wide tier there and was going to go for need and before getting Payton would have taken him atop his second tier (wherever that started).

I am still hesitant taking Bamba over him...and don't think I'd take Carter over him. I think I like the likely C's there at the Miami pick than the PGs.

[bwgood77]

New ESPN/Givony Mock Draft for anyone that's interested. Has us taking Luka Doncic #1 and Daniel Gafford at #15 right now. Here's the first 15 picks (spoilered because it's long):

Spoiler:

1. Phoenix Suns
Luka Doncic
Real Madrid
Age: 18.9
PG

The Suns' backcourt is a work in progress after Phoenix traded Eric Bledsoe and brought in Elfrid Payton for what may end up being a rental.

Doncic's size, skill level and versatility allow him to play anywhere from 1 to 4, but there's little doubt that he's at his best with the ball in his hands. He would fit very well with playmaking wings Devin Booker and Josh Jackson.

He's having a phenomenal season in Europe, posting historic numbers in the Euroleague and Spanish ACB for an 18-year-old.

Deandre Ayton will also get a long look here.

2. Atlanta Hawks
Deandre Ayton
Arizona
Freshman
C

The Hawks are not in a position to draft based on need at this stage of their rebuilding effort, and there are question marks about how well promising big man John Collins fits in alongside another center who doesn't protect the rim at an elite rate.

Nevertheless, Ayton has elevated himself into the conversation as a top-two pick with his incredible natural physical tools and high skill level. His rebounding and scoring prowess could be very attractive here, even if Mohamed Bamba might actually be a better fit stylistically.

3. Sacramento Kings
Mohamed Bamba
Texas
Freshman
C

None of the Kings' big men have emerged as franchise cornerstones at this stage, meaning it would be foolish to pass on a top-tier talent due to positional concerns.

Bamba will likely get some looks in the top two as well, given his rare combination of length, shot-blocking instincts and offensive promise. He is starting to make 3-pointers more consistently (10-for-28 in his past 15 games), and his unicorn potential gives him arguably the highest upside of any player in this draft.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Nets)
Jaren Jackson
Michigan State
Freshman
C

At 6-foot-11 and 242 pounds, with a 7-foot-4 wingspan, it's very likely that Jackson will see significant minutes at center in the NBA as his promising frame fills out, rather than at the 4, as he mostly does in college at the moment. Jackson's ability to space the floor (44 percent from 3; 79 percent from the line), block shots (5.9 per 40 minutes), switch on every screen and, increasingly, put the ball on the floor from the perimeter makes him an ideal fit for the modern NBA.

He has significant upside to grow into as well, as he's the youngest player currently projected to be drafted. Jackson is the exact type of player the Cavs sorely need on their roster right now, but he'd be a terrific building block to have regardless of what LeBron James decides to do.

5. Orlando Magic
Marvin Bagley III
Duke
Freshman
C

Although there are some positional concerns regarding Bagley and his fit in the modern NBA, at some point his talent level and sheer production are likely too great to pass on.

The Magic could very well be in the market for a point guard, but there are still question marks about whether Trae Young and Collin Sexton are worthy of being picked this high. Bagley is likely best suited for the center spot, and his scoring instincts, rebounding prowess and athleticism would make for an interesting fit alongside building blocks Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac.

6. Chicago Bulls
Michael Porter Jr.
Missouri
Freshman
PF

The Bulls have a gaping hole at the small forward position, and could use all the firepower they can find from the perimeter. Porter's ability to play alongside Lauri Markkanen should make him very attractive at this spot.

Porter came into the season with the hope of making a run at being the No. 1 pick in the draft, but unfortunately he hasn't been able to build his case because of a back injury. The results of his medical examination will play a significant role in where he is ultimately drafted, but NBA teams don't appear to be especially concerned right now about the nature of the injury and his long-term prognosis.

7. Memphis Grizzlies
Trae Young
Oklahoma
Freshman
PG

Mike Conley is a Memphis cornerstone signed to one of the NBA's most lucrative contracts, but he is already 30 and has struggled to stay healthy in recent seasons. With the Grizzlies' playoff run ending, they will have to think about entering a rebuilding stage -- including drafting for talent rather than need.

Trae Young has been mired in a prolonged shooting slump since exploding onto the national radar, but still is a very intriguing fit in today's NBA with his tremendous passing and scoring ability.

8. Dallas Mavericks
Wendell Carter Jr.
Duke
Freshman
C

Carter's season got off to a slow start, but he has been Duke's best player in 2018 and has recaptured his status as a potential top-10 pick, which is where he started the season.

The Mavs could certainly use help in the frontcourt, and Carter's basketball IQ and versatility are promising in a number of ways.

9. New York Knicks
Collin Sexton
Alabama
Freshman
PG

Frank Ntilikina has had some nice rookie moments, but the Knicks are finding out that the long-armed, 6-foot-5 guard seems better suited playing alongside a more dominant ball handler and shot creator who can take some of the scoring responsibilities off his shoulders.

Enter Sexton, with his tremendous aggressiveness driving the lane, taking off-the-dribble jumpers and putting defensive pressure on opposing guards. NBA teams have some concerns about Sexton's ability to stay healthy due to his reckless style of play. He's been dinged up much of the season, which hasn't helped matters.

10. Philadelphia 76ers (via Lakers)
Mikal Bridges
Villanova
Junior
SF

The Sixers are in line to draft in the top 10 due to the shrewd Michael Carter-Williams trade made by Sam Hinkie three years ago (as long as the pick is not 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th, in which case it goes to Boston).

Shooting, defensive versatility, and basketball IQ are what the 76ers need to continue to add, and Bridges brings all of them along with the ability to guard 1 to 4. He isn't as gifted a shot-creator as you'd like from a top-10 pick, but if he's playing alongside the likes of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, he won't need to be.

11. Charlotte Hornets
Miles Bridges
Michigan State
Sophomore
SF/PF

Charlotte continues to search for long-term solutions at both forward positions, and will likely look to add athleticism to what's become a fairly disappointing roster.

Bridges is a freakish athlete who has struggled at times to make the full-time transition to small forward, but he undoubtedly has potential as a two-way forward who can guard all over the floor and give you enough shooting, ballhandling and passing to get by at one of the most important positions in today's NBA.

12. LA Clippers (via Pistons)
Kevin Knox
Kentucky
Freshman
PF

The Clippers will likely be looking to add athleticism, shooting and length at the forward positions, where they don't have much depth outside of Tobias Harris.

Knox hasn't had a very efficient freshman season, partially due to his playing out of position, but there's a significant market in the NBA for combo forwards in his mold who can make an open shot, defend multiple positions and offer some offensive versatility. He's one of the youngest players in this draft, so he still has plenty of room to grow.

The Clippers will receive Detroit's pick if it falls outside the top four.

13. LA Clippers
Robert Williams
Texas A&M
Sophomore
C

Williams has had a somewhat disappointing sophomore season while playing out of position as a power forward in traditional dual-post player lineups. His game is tailor-made for the NBA, though -- he has potential as a rim-running, pick-and-roll-finishing, shot-blocker/offensive rebounder in the Clint Capela mold.

With DeAndre Jordan in the final year of his contract, the Clippers could certainly look to Williams as a potential successor.

14. Chicago Bulls (via Pelicans)
Lonnie Walker IV
Miami
Freshman
SG/SF

Chicago's wing rotation is still a work in progress, and could certainly use some more shooting, length and perimeter defensive prowess.

Walker started off the season poorly, but has been much better in ACC play, reestablishing himself as a potential lottery-caliber prospect. The lack of depth at the wing position certainly helps him as well.

His youth, strong frame, 6-foot-10½ wingspan and ability to shoot with his feet set or off the dribble make him a candidate to rise even further during the predraft process as teams search for upside and diamonds in the rough.

15. Phoenix Suns (via Heat)
Daniel Gafford
Arkansas
Freshman
C

Gafford's tremendous physical tools and significant upside will likely mean his name is called somewhere in the top 20 on draft night, if he has a strong predraft process.

Unfortunately the glut of big men in this class (plus the lack of wings around the league) makes it difficult for him to crack the lottery in this team-needs-based mock draft. The Suns are one team that could potentially look for depth at the center spot, adding much needed rim protection and finishing ability as Alex Len enters free agency.

That would be about as ideal as it could get for me.

[bwgood77]

Hmmm. With Young dropping back, to say #7. Let's just run a dream scenario. We get the #1 pick. Take Ayton. Then cash in the the Miami pick, the Milwakee pick, and maybe Warren or next year's #1 Suns pick and trade up to #7 and take Young. I think a team may take that rather than drafting Young who looks like big risk big reward to some teams.

There is a slight chance of this happening, depending on who is at the 7th spot.
I'd think Memphis/Chicago/Cleveland/NY all would take a long, hard look at some combination of all those picks plus Warren or Chriss for the 7th spot.

Cleveland would have to send out money to us. They can't add people. They are adamant about not trading that pick for a reason. I think they are one teams that would love Young. I also don't think teams would pass on guys like Bridges and Carter....plus all those teams would have to send us bad contracts since they are at or over the cap.

[bwgood77]

Right now we must take BPA. Elfrid Payton cannot factor into our decision. I like Elfrid a lot and would feel comfortable with him being our starter going into next season and possibly improving a lot, but he has some serious limitations that should not forclose us from drafting another guard. I question whether he can be effective in a playoff series when he shoots free throws poorly and doesn't space the floor well.

Having Elfrid around would be to the benefit of Doncic or Young, and he could easily share the floor with either of those guys. If we have an overqualified backup point guard, that is not the worst situation to be in.

Yeah, we are one of maybe 2 or 3 teams that Payton would start for right now, so he is probably best as a back up. That's not to say he won't improve, and can become and a top 20 long term starter, but to bank on it might not be a good idea. He's better right now than some of the rookies starting but their long term upside is higher.

[Djedefre]

Doncic AND Gafford?
Where do i have to sign?

[jcsunsfan]

Wendell Carter is interesting. He does everything well. The only thing that might be a negative is his foul rate, but even that is not too bad. He just does not do anything really really well. He is one of those very high floor, kinda low ceiling players. He would be a very safe pick.

If we got Doncic, Trae, or even Porter early, I would be fine moving up to get Carter.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Wendell Carter is interesting. He does everything well. The only thing that might be a negative is his foul rate, but even that is not too bad. He just does not do anything really really well. He is one of those very high floor, kinda low ceiling players. He would be a very safe pick.

If we got Doncic, Trae, or even Porter early, I would be fine moving up to get Carter.

There's a lot to like with Carter. Hot take alert but I kind of like him more than Young. Probably just recency bias but young has always made me a little uncomfortable so this bad stretch has me really down on him.

[jcsunsfan]

Wendell Carter is interesting. He does everything well. The only thing that might be a negative is his foul rate, but even that is not too bad. He just does not do anything really really well. He is one of those very high floor, kinda low ceiling players. He would be a very safe pick.

If we got Doncic, Trae, or even Porter early, I would be fine moving up to get Carter.

There's a lot to like with Carter. Hot take alert but I kind of like him more than Young. Probably just recency bias but young has always made me a little uncomfortable so this bad stretch has me really down on him.

Otto Porter was like Carter just at SF rather that PF/C. He did almost everything well but did not stand out in any particular thing.

[kennydorglas]

My spreadsheet updated by 2/20/18

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1npwnYvWBCHk7zLbE18FxlX92Z6K_Lhr5JWI0uCC5598/edit?usp=sharing

Bamba just joined the 'above average 3pt/FG/FT team'. lol
Trae is now trailing Mikal Bridges, Bamba and Bagley as the best prospect in NCAA.

[bwgood77]

My spreadsheet updated by 2/20/18

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1npwnYvWBCHk7zLbE18FxlX92Z6K_Lhr5JWI0uCC5598/edit?usp=sharing

Bamba just joined the 'above average 3pt/FG/FT team'. lol
Trae is now trailing Mikal Bridges, Bamba and Bagley as the best prospect in NCAA.

Why the two ratings for Bagley and Bridges? And Carter, Williams and some others.

[NavLDO]

Right now we must take BPA. Elfrid Payton cannot factor into our decision. I like Elfrid a lot and would feel comfortable with him being our starter going into next season and possibly improving a lot, but he has some serious limitations that should not forclose us from drafting another guard. I question whether he can be effective in a playoff series when he shoots free throws poorly and doesn't space the floor well.

Having Elfrid around would be to the benefit of Doncic or Young, and he could easily share the floor with either of those guys. If we have an overqualified backup point guard, that is not the worst situation to be in.

Now looking at Trae Young, his numbers have dipped a lot recently. I like his fit significantly more now that we have Elfrid on the team though. I imagine Young will look a lot better when he suddenly becomes the second best offensive option on his team and doesn't have to pull up off screens before the double team closes in on him. I think Young will be fine in the NBA, but if we want to start him and Booker together down the line, we better have a defensive stalwart to back them both up.

I'm still out on Jackson Jr. I won't be surprised if he becomes an elite defensive player one day who can spread the floor well, but don't see that happening here. I can't see a player of his archetype flourishing here, especially after our power forward experiment of the last 2 years. He has many of the same flaws as Chriss: poor rebounder, fouls often, limited individual offensive creation. Not that I'm factoring in fit with Chriss, I just think there are more worthy options in the top 5. He's more in the 6-9 range to me, and there are 2 or maybe 3 bigs who I'd rather have: Ayton, Bagley, and potentially Carter.

With Jackson, though, there is more to like in different areas. just look at this comparison of Bagley, Carter, Jackson, and Chriss:

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=marvin-bagley--wendell-carter--jaren-jackson-jr--marquese-chriss

Notice how Chriss has the "Red Dot" next to his numbers, like, 5x more than anyone else? Jackson appears to be more accomplished from 3, FT%, and Blocks, and Chriss has actually been pretty active in the Blks department, so if Jackson follows suit...

I've always been a proponent of Carter. Several months ago, I brought up taking Carter, and Robert Williams, as decent alternates for not taking Doncic, when I had thought Doncic was strictly a 3, and a couple of posters here basically laughed at me, as if Doncic was this rare specimen, and Williams and/or Carter equated to about that which you'd pull off the bottom of your shoe.

Now, yes, Doncic is special, and I've come around to that, but Carter, IMO, has inched his way back into top 7 or 8 consideration:

Doncic
Ayton
Porter Jr.
Bagley
Bamba
Jackson Jr.
Carter
Young
Miles Bridges
Sexton

Then:

Mikal Bridges
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Knox
Musa
Robert Williams

Then, depending who you ask, it gets really amalgamous...

...who knows

Robert Williams is, unfortunately, a guy who was born about 30 years too late, but he could still play Center, even though he's only 6'9", with his length. Just don't know what to think about him...

I still like Bamba, though many don't think he's still a top 5-6 guy. But Carter though, yeah, I really like him. 8 of his last 11 games are double-doubles, slashing 17/11. avg'ing 50% from 3PT on 1.8 3s/gm

I'd be very happy with Carter, if, for some reason we drafted 7th.

For instance, here's one of my 'crazy' trade scenarios. The Bulls may think that, now, that they have gotten rid of their star player in Mirotic, that they'll just 'waltz' right back into contention for 1st or 2nd overall...umm, sorry, there are other tankers here, too, bubba. You left the party; you don't get back in so easy. The rest of us 'suck' enough as well, and we also want our shot at Doncic and Ayton, too. So we'll let you remain 7th or 8th.

So, we agree to take on Asik's contract, take Denzel Valentine (shooting 37% on almost 5 3s a game), and we take on a backup PG in Jerian Grant for Warren + BK (and his contract), save about $12M overall, or thereabouts.

We trade our 3rd overall (because we're never getting the 1st...you know that) for their 7th and 15th? 16th? Whatever Memphis tuens out to be, and voila' we are now drafting 7th, 15th AND 16th, and we draft Carter and two others.

No?? OK, fine. Just an idea...even if it's a bad one!

[Blonde]

With Jackson, though, there is more to like in different areas. just look at this comparison of Bagley, Carter, Jackson, and Chriss:

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=marvin-bagley--wendell-carter--jaren-jackson-jr--marquese-chriss

Notice how Chriss has the "Red Dot" next to his numbers, like, 5x more than anyone else? Jackson appears to be more accomplished from 3, FT%, and Blocks, and Chriss has actually been pretty active in the Blks department, so if Jackson follows suit...

Don’t get me wrong, I’d swap Jackson for Chriss in a second a call it a huge upgrade. Helpful comparison tool though. I’d just call out the fact that projecting per36 numbers when a player can’t stay out of foul trouble enough to stay on the court more than 22 minutes is a bit dubious. But this comparison shows the quality of prospects between the ‘16 draft class and this year.

As for Carter, yeah I love him too. I think we’d be looking at him a lot different if Bagley hadn’t reclassified at the last minute to play at Duke with him.

I don’t think we’d be looking at trading down from a top 3 pick either. In fact I think we will be trying to do the opposite and consolidate assets to try to move up. We’ll already likely bring in 3 rookies next year (our first, our second, miami first). No need or room to make it 4 or 5.

[lilfishi22]

Right now we must take BPA. Elfrid Payton cannot factor into our decision. I like Elfrid a lot and would feel comfortable with him being our starter going into next season and possibly improving a lot, but he has some serious limitations that should not forclose us from drafting another guard. I question whether he can be effective in a playoff series when he shoots free throws poorly and doesn't space the floor well.

Having Elfrid around would be to the benefit of Doncic or Young, and he could easily share the floor with either of those guys. If we have an overqualified backup point guard, that is not the worst situation to be in.

Now looking at Trae Young, his numbers have dipped a lot recently. I like his fit significantly more now that we have Elfrid on the team though. I imagine Young will look a lot better when he suddenly becomes the second best offensive option on his team and doesn't have to pull up off screens before the double team closes in on him. I think Young will be fine in the NBA, but if we want to start him and Booker together down the line, we better have a defensive stalwart to back them both up.

I'm still out on Jackson Jr. I won't be surprised if he becomes an elite defensive player one day who can spread the floor well, but don't see that happening here. I can't see a player of his archetype flourishing here, especially after our power forward experiment of the last 2 years. He has many of the same flaws as Chriss: poor rebounder, fouls often, limited individual offensive creation. Not that I'm factoring in fit with Chriss, I just think there are more worthy options in the top 5. He's more in the 6-9 range to me, and there are 2 or maybe 3 bigs who I'd rather have: Ayton, Bagley, and potentially Carter.

It's not that simple.

The criteria should be BPA then need but when there is no clear BPA (imo) with any of the top 5 potentially being BPA, I think you absolutely have to factor in fit. Maybe not 50/50 but certainly not 100/0.

[Mulhollanddrive]

ESPN latest top 7:

1. Doncic
2. Ayton
3. Bamba
4. Jackson
5. Bagley
6. Porter
7. Young

[kennydorglas]

My spreadsheet updated by 2/20/18

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1npwnYvWBCHk7zLbE18FxlX92Z6K_Lhr5JWI0uCC5598/edit?usp=sharing

Bamba just joined the 'above average 3pt/FG/FT team'. lol
Trae is now trailing Mikal Bridges, Bamba and Bagley as the best prospect in NCAA.

Why the two ratings for Bagley and Bridges? And Carter, Williams and some others.

because they can play multiple positions.
I added another column to keep it simple.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Wendell Carter is interesting. He does everything well. The only thing that might be a negative is his foul rate, but even that is not too bad. He just does not do anything really really well. He is one of those very high floor, kinda low ceiling players. He would be a very safe pick.

If we got Doncic, Trae, or even Porter early, I would be fine moving up to get Carter.

There's a lot to like with Carter. Hot take alert but I kind of like him more than Young. Probably just recency bias but young has always made me a little uncomfortable so this bad stretch has me really down on him.

Otto Porter was like Carter just at SF rather that PF/C. He did almost everything well but did not stand out in any particular thing.

Ha I was just saying how the suns should look into trading for porter this summer so I guess its natural I like Carter. Having some guys without glaring holes in their game would be a nice change of pace for this team.

[bwgood77]

My spreadsheet updated by 2/20/18

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1npwnYvWBCHk7zLbE18FxlX92Z6K_Lhr5JWI0uCC5598/edit?usp=sharing

Bamba just joined the 'above average 3pt/FG/FT team'. lol
Trae is now trailing Mikal Bridges, Bamba and Bagley as the best prospect in NCAA.

Why the two ratings for Bagley and Bridges? And Carter, Williams and some others.

because they can play multiple positions.
I added another column to keep it simple.

So Bagley slightly better as a C in college than Young as a PG, but clearly worse as a PF. And Bamba slightly better.

But then Mikal Bridges looks by far the best prospect from a production standpoint in college...far better as a SG, but still up there with the others at SF.

Interesting that only 5 scores of the top 10 prospects or so not only register 50 or higher, but nobody else even registers as high as 40. And 2 of the 5 scores 50+ are Mikal Bridges.

But it gets back to the question, since Bagley's good score was playing C, does that translate to the pro level?

[Mulhollanddrive]

Defensively no I think Bender would have to bulk up and play C.

[bwgood77]

ESPN latest top 7:

1. Doncic
2. Ayton
3. Bamba
4. Jackson
5. Bagley
6. Porter
7. Young

It doesn't seem like Givony has spent much time on this class. Most of his stuff is on euro's in upcoming classes and the 19 class as of late. Though on a podcast a couple of weeks ago he mentioned he had Bamba at 3. That's the highest espn has had Young this year though.

[Mulhollanddrive]

Jaren Jackson doesn't have the best looking box scores - 8 points, 4 rebounds, 5 blocks, 4 fouls.

But then you see this:

Watch on YouTube