The One And Only Offseason Thread 4

[JDLAW]

JDLAW,

Here you go again, dousing out the torches for yet another once-a-week "let's burn the greedy Suns hating bastards" rabble-roust.

You're just no fun.

You should give the restless (bored) villagers at least half a day to blow off a little steam before throwing a little reality on their fires.

I'll give you an "and 1" for this.

[Cutter]

Broussard says it is so - so it must be! Why has it not happened? Paul's only other client Kevin Seraphin has taken the QO already. What is keeping Bledsoe from doing so right now?

Answer - He does not want to. He does not want to play for $3.7M next year, especially when there is at least $48M on the table.

I have no idea whether Bledsoe loves PHX or not, nor do I care. He and his agent know that he is going to be here at least for a year if not longer because Bledsoe is not free to choose his place of employment.

I do know from experience in negotiating many settlements to lawsuits that is is hard to walk away from a huge offer when there is a real risk you might never get that opportunity again. Bledsoe has only earned about $4.5-5M in his career. With the Suns offer He will earn ten times that over the next 4 years if he takes the offer or negotiates something slightly better. Alternatively, he could also take the QO and find the market is no kinder to him next year, which would mean he would never make up the loss. He could take the QO and have a devastating injury which might mean he will never earn more than the QO. Or he could blow-up and earn a max. The problem with being an unrestricted FA is that the market is sometimes truer that for a RFA where a team has to overpay to make the incumbent team flinch and that market might not be kinder to him than it currently is.

I will predict that, if he puts up the same #s next year that he did this year, he'll find the market to be about where it currently is and all he will have done is to forego about $8.3M for the right to earn $12M with another team. If he pouts and is a bad guy, his market value will be less. I will also predict that he is likely to be shut out of season awards like the all-star team because coaches are no very forgiving of this behavior. He will have to be lights out better than his competition and the team will have to be winning at a substantial rat for him to get any consideration.

I have no idea whether Broussard has new insight into Bledsoe from Paul's camp or he is repeating old crap, but this leaking of dissatisfaction for the purpose of injecting emotional pressure into the negotiation to gain leverage is frankly juvenile and desperate and unlikely to affect anything. The Suns are not going to get drawn into this and have been more than fair - even to the point where they have left the door open to negotiating the deal further. They have not issued a drop dead or final offer.

The fact is that, other than a few fanboys and media fanboys, the public is not supportive of Bledsoe and his agent's demands. Coro's article which quotes others from around the league has to sting and perhaps this is Paul's counter - leak more disgruntlement to a sympathetic media whore like Broussard.

The second fact is that Paul cannot afford to have Bledsoe take the QO. When an agent has miscalculated as badly as Paul has, he might do anything to save face and protect his business - even if it means giving poor advice to his client. But if Bledsoe takes the QO, it will be seen as a major failure on Paul's ability as an agent. Competing agents will point out to new recruits that Paul was unable to negotiate a contract for either of his "non-max" players and they defaulted to taking a QO. They will point out that Paul can handle Lebron but everyone else is subject to loss money and prestige as Paul learns the business of being an agent. Paul needs a successful end to this negotiation. But in order to have one, he needs to redefine what is a success. Taking the QO will never be viewed as that or be viewed as being in Bledsoe's best interests. Given the public perception of the situation, if he can negotiate a few more shekels from the Suns and maybe get a few incentives he will be able to say he was successful, even if he did deliver a max contract to Bledsoe.

JD, I really like your last paragraph where you discuss the agent vs agent angle and the competition they engage in when trying to attract new talent. I never really looked at it from that perspective, but when trying to recruit new clients I can definitely see an agent raking Rich Paul over the coals on his mishandling of the Bledsoe deal. if Bled ends up taking the QO (as did Seraphin), then as a young player why would you want Paul as your agent?

[JDLAW]

When an agent has miscalculated as badly as Paul has.

I know the perception on this board is that Paul has "miscalculated". That may or may not prove out in the end, but right now I do not think you can make that claim.

The Suns have $48 million on the table and Sarver in that interview that was in the wiretap this morning said he's willing to negotiate higher from that point. Now if Paul is trying to hold out for 5/$80 and won't budge, yes that is a miscalculation. But if he is ultimately willing to come down to 4/$63 or even 4/$58, he's done an ok job in getting his client an extra $10 million by simply waiting this out 60-90 days.

Personally I still think Paul has to get the same deal Gordon Hayward got to save face, but this situation is a long way from over. There is still a ton of time before things get serious in October.

Also I believe that if Bledsoe does take the QO, he can be traded by Suns next year, however Bledsoe has to approve the team he's traded to.

You make some good points, but I do believe he has miscalculated this market for him badly and has over promised his client. I am not advocating he does not wait, but he can get his client more $$ by going back in to negotiate. Waiting does not give him leverage.

[lilfishi22]

When an agent has miscalculated as badly as Paul has.

I know the perception on this board is that Paul has "miscalculated". That may or may not prove out in the end, but right now I do not think you can make that claim.

The Suns have $48 million on the table and Sarver in that interview that was in the wiretap this morning said he's willing to negotiate higher from that point. Now if Paul is trying to hold out for 5/$80 and won't budge, yes that is a miscalculation. But if he is ultimately willing to come down to 4/$63 or even 4/$58, he's done an ok job in getting his client an extra $10 million by simply waiting this out 60-90 days.

Personally I still think Paul has to get the same deal Gordon Hayward got to save face, but this situation is a long way from over. There is still a ton of time before things get serious in October.

Also I believe that if Bledsoe does take the QO, he can be traded by Suns next year, however Bledsoe has to approve the team he's traded to.

I see the miscalculation in the fact that no other team has come to Bledsoe with an offer. Not one. Paul had expected competing max or close to max offers from teams to be flowing in for his client and he had rejected Suns fair offer from day one hoping to match instead. Those offers have not eventuated and they are now stuck with no offer, except for the one on the table.

[tgtm_24]

Paul can very much save face, but in order to do that he must first admit he's overvalued his stock. This can't be disputed as the market trumps all in this case.

[paulpressey25]

^^^i agree he likely overpromised his client and this is tougher than he thought. If those two thought or think they were getting 5/$80 then they were not reading the market correctly.

I just think he's not in as bad a box as some here think as it relates to getting a deal materially better than 4/$48. The fact Sarver publicly opened the the door for a higher offer would tell one that the Suns know they aren't getting him for 4/$48 and that it is in the Suns best interest to get this done as well.

[lilfishi22]

Paul can very much save face, but in order to do that he must first admit he's overvalued his stock. This can't be disputed as the market trumps all in this case.

The only way he can save face here is to negotiate a slightly higher offer (52/4?) and call it a day. I don't expect the Suns to budge much further than that unless they are incentives. He's never going to admit he's overvalued the market because the moment he does that, he loses all credibility with his client.

[RunDogGun]

Paul can very much save face, but in order to do that he must first admit he's overvalued his stock. This can't be disputed as the market trumps all in this case.

The only way he can save face here is to negotiate a slightly higher offer (52/4?) and call it a day. I don't expect the Suns to budge much further than that unless they are incentives. He's never going to admit he's overvalued the market because the moment he does that, he loses all credibility with his client.

If we do that, I would structure it similar to the Amare contract, with some non guaranteed salary if certain number of games are not played.

But if he was dumb enough to take the QO, I don't think I would bench him out of spite, but I would start IT until he loses the starting role, and bring Bledsoe off the bench.

[lilfishi22]

Paul can very much save face, but in order to do that he must first admit he's overvalued his stock. This can't be disputed as the market trumps all in this case.

The only way he can save face here is to negotiate a slightly higher offer (52/4?) and call it a day. I don't expect the Suns to budge much further than that unless they are incentives. He's never going to admit he's overvalued the market because the moment he does that, he loses all credibility with his client.

If we do that, I would structure it similar to the Amare contract, with some non guaranteed salary if certain number of games are not played.

But if he was dumb enough to take the QO, I don't think I would bench him out of spite, but I would start IT until he loses the starting role, and bring Bledsoe off the bench.

Absolutely. I think incentives are the way to go. If he thinks he's a max player, he should have no issues playing and earning like a max player.

[JTrain]

Imagine driving the lane while on the QO, knowing that one bad step could lose you $44.3M. Sounds like an awfully stressful season.

[Christine-In-AZ]

I don't know how much this has been discussed but, how big of a factor is Lebron James in these negotiations? I think "mogul James" is a significant facet and rightfully so. Not a huge factor, but one that has to be acknowledged...I think the Suns FO respects its weight. My guess is many if not most of you would not or would rage against any acknowledgement. That would not be smart.

The implications/ramifications have nothing to do with the player James (he's never leaving Cleveland again)..it's about his influence and the long term, long tentacles he does possess.

Kind of surprised I haven't seen this aspect talked about. Perhaps I just missed it.

Now? or Nah? or What the f**k?

[lilfishi22]

I don't know how much this has been discussed but, how big of a factor is Lebron James in these negotiations? I think "mogul James" is a significant facet and rightfully so. Not a huge factor, but one that has to be acknowledged...I think the Suns FO respects its weight. My guess is many if not most of you would not or would rage against any acknowledgement. That would not be smart.

The implications/ramifications have nothing to do with the player James (he's never leaving Cleveland again)..it's about his influence and the long term, long tentacles he does possess.

Kind of surprised I haven't seen this aspect talked about. Perhaps I just missed it.

Now? or Nah? or What the f**k?

COuld you elaborate. I don't quite understand what you mean about having or not having to do with Lebron. I don't see that affects us...

[AtheJ415]

No. It's a miscalculation. Because if he was willing to come down to a value and that was his plan all along, he could've simply gotten that offer elsewhere and saved his players' reputation, such as with Parsons or Hayward or countless others. Paul is awful at his job. This we all already knew going in.

When an agent has miscalculated as badly as Paul has.

I know the perception on this board is that Paul has "miscalculated". That may or may not prove out in the end, but right now I do not think you can make that claim.

The Suns have $48 million on the table and Sarver in that interview that was in the wiretap this morning said he's willing to negotiate higher from that point. Now if Paul is trying to hold out for 5/$80 and won't budge, yes that is a miscalculation. But if he is ultimately willing to come down to 4/$63 or even 4/$58, he's done an ok job in getting his client an extra $10 million by simply waiting this out 60-90 days.

Personally I still think Paul has to get the same deal Gordon Hayward got to save face, but this situation is a long way from over. There is still a ton of time before things get serious in October.

Also I believe that if Bledsoe does take the QO, he can be traded by Suns next year, however Bledsoe has to approve the team he's traded to.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Deadlines... pay attention to deadlines and that's when something will get done. It's how we're wired as a society. Now that the free agent spending frenzy is over neither side has much motivation to get a deal done. So they will wait and play the pr game on both sides. Come end of September I'd expect some action and probably a compromise.

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[AtheJ415]

I'll say this. If Bledsoe takes the QO, then Paul will have manufactured the 2 stupidest single events I've ever seen by an agent. (1) The Decision. (2) Gambling $48 mil to win $8 at most.

[AtheJ415]

^^^i agree he likely overpromised his client and this is tougher than he thought. If those two thought or think they were getting 5/$80 then they were not reading the market correctly.

I just think he's not in as bad a box as some here think as it relates to getting a deal materially better than 4/$48. The fact Sarver publicly opened the the door for a higher offer would tell one that the Suns know they aren't getting him for 4/$48 and that it is in the Suns best interest to get this done as well.

So you honestly think he'd take the QO over the $48 mil offer? Because to say you think the Suns "know" they aren't getting him for 4/$48 means that you believe at that point he'd take the QO. To take the QO is mathematically to gamble $48 million to win $8 million. You really believe Bledsoe would do that?

[AtheJ415]

When an agent has miscalculated as badly as Paul has.

I know the perception on this board is that Paul has "miscalculated". That may or may not prove out in the end, but right now I do not think you can make that claim.

The Suns have $48 million on the table and Sarver in that interview that was in the wiretap this morning said he's willing to negotiate higher from that point. Now if Paul is trying to hold out for 5/$80 and won't budge, yes that is a miscalculation. But if he is ultimately willing to come down to 4/$63 or even 4/$58, he's done an ok job in getting his client an extra $10 million by simply waiting this out 60-90 days.

Personally I still think Paul has to get the same deal Gordon Hayward got to save face, but this situation is a long way from over. There is still a ton of time before things get serious in October.

Also I believe that if Bledsoe does take the QO, he can be traded by Suns next year, however Bledsoe has to approve the team he's traded to.

You make some good points, but I do believe he has miscalculated this market for him badly and has over promised his client. I am not advocating he does not wait, but he can get his client more $$ by going back in to negotiate. Waiting does not give him leverage.

Exactly, and I think he continued to believe this miscalculation because he saw Hayward and Parsons cashing out without realizing that PG is a much tougher position. There are a ton of good ones, 2 of which are under contract with the Suns already. Only 3 PGs are really worth the max in this market. If Bledsoe was a SF a team offers him that.

[Christine-In-AZ]

I don't know how much this has been discussed but, how big of a factor is Lebron James in these negotiations? I think "mogul James" is a significant facet and rightfully so. Not a huge factor, but one that has to be acknowledged...I think the Suns FO respects its weight. My guess is many if not most of you would not or would rage against any acknowledgement. That would not be smart.

The implications/ramifications have nothing to do with the player James (he's never leaving Cleveland again)..it's about his influence and the long term, long tentacles he does possess.

Kind of surprised I haven't seen this aspect talked about. Perhaps I just missed it.

Now? or Nah? or What the f**k?

COuld you elaborate. I don't quite understand what you mean about having or not having to do with Lebron. I don't see that affects us...

It was briefly talked about on the BS report today between Simmons and Windhorst. ...that James is (arguably) the 2nd most powerful person in the NBA. Bledsoe and Paul and James are friends. How things go between Paul/Bledsoe and the Suns will color how James views the Suns on into the future. He wields and will wield more influence as the years go on, in wider and wider circles. I can't be specific how a good or bad relationship with James could effect the Suns down the road, only that I think it merits consideration.

I'll reiterate. I think it IS a factor and the Suns know it. I'm not saying extortion or anything like that, but that it is a card that Paul is smart and right in using in negotiations. It's part of the reason(ing) Paul is aiming so high. If you don't think James does or will ever have this level of influence, fine, its not a factor to you. I think James does and will continue to. Sorry I can't be more specific in what I think the "King James" factor is playing in the Bledsoe contract signing.

[SunsFanSSOL]

I tweeted LaCava asking if Bledsoe was serious about taking the QO, he DM'd me saying

"I would say EB is very cautious about staying long term."

Oh well, looks like Bledsoe is gone. This issue is bigger than money, dude just doesn't want to be a Phoenix Sun.

[RunDogGun]

Deadlines... pay attention to deadlines and that's when something will get done. It's how we're wired as a society. Now that the free agent spending frenzy is over neither side has much motivation to get a deal done. So they will wait and play the pr game on both sides. Come end of September I'd expect some action and probably a compromise.

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I'd tell him that we plan to let him walk, and not extend the QO, and then at the last minute, extend it.

I'm ready to roll with Goran and IT, and run it so that one of the two is always on the floor. We will take a hit defensively, but there doesn't seem to be much of a choice. Green grabs more minutes, and TJ gets some burn at the three.