MathiasPW wrote:MathiasPW wrote:To illustrate:
The way Mulholland is saying would mean there was an exclusive lottery for the Suns, where 350 out of 1000 balls were for pick #5,
The way I understand is there is an exclusive lottery for every pick. For pick #5 (if Suns were not selected by then) there would be 119+126+133+99+350=819 out of 1000 balls with our name on it.
The added numbers are our odds for picks 1, 2 , 3, 4 and 5, respectively
I think you are making it a little extra complicated. While odds certainly shift for everyone everytime a combination pops up and what's left significantly would shift everyone's odds, if you run 1,000 simulations today, about 35% of the time we would drop a spot, because the combined odds of every team behind us (5-14) jumping to a top 3 likely add up to about 35%. I bet if you go run that tankathon sim 100 times, a team below us jumps up between 32 and 38 times, landing us at #5.
But again, you can't necessarily say that is what is LIKELY to happen, because it is still only slightly more than a 1/3 chance, so the combined odds of us staying getting a pick between 1-4 are still greater.
That's why I always say there is too much luck to care TOO much about one win or loss, because in the end, it's basically one simulation run. Sure, you want the best odds, but anything can happen. The main thing you don't want to see when they are flipping over those cards from 14 on down, is a team to have moved up, because if that happened, it is then EXTREMELY likely we dropped at least one pick, unless we somehow ALSO moved up, and the odds of two teams moving up is far less than just one moving up.
