Draft Thread Part 2

[carey]

No, he played his senior year.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/doug-mcdermott-1.html

I know, I was talking about Adam Morrison (AMMO.) DIdn't he leave as a Junior after winning NPOY?

[NavLDO]

How do you watch the last 5 minutes and not take Buddy Hield.

Really easy I watch Booker play this last year and remember that Hield would take minutes from Booker.

I know it's not that cut-n-dry, but there is some truth to that statement, and unless McD/Watson see either as being able to play some small-ball 3, or some minutes at PG, Why spend the 4th overall pick on our arguably, strongest position (Booker, Bogs, Goodwin, Jenkins--plus Bledsoe/Knight when doing the 'combo guard' bit). Plus, I don't see a scenario where he's the BPA @ 4 (but that's my opinion)--Simmons, Ingram, Bender, Brown, Murray, not to mention a possible trade for Okafor.

And speaking of that, what players would you all be willing to trade 4th overall for?? Okafor, Cousins, Butler, PG???

[saintEscaton]

^ All of the above

[carey]

Booker can absolutely run the offense for 15 min a game. I'm not saying you want him to but he has that skill-set.

[NavLDO]

DraftExpress says "Defensive POTENTIAL" not "GREAT DEFENDER". Plus a lot of those videos of him "checking wings" are him staying like 5 feet in front of them - which is wide open in the NBA...

EDIT: Notice how all of those clips in his "Strengths" video re: defense are of drives. I'd be willing to wager he was defending players with no jump shot whatsoever, hell-bent on getting into the paint.

Exactly, because all 18 year olds defend that way. Or maybe he's just being smart and realizing his wingspan is like 7'5" and that he can bother their shot while still playing off of them to prevent the drive or an easy foul call. At this point, I think there's nothing that could possibly be shown that would have you say a positive thing about Bender. Oh, and when somebody discusses your defensive potential by showing you defending well now, that has meaning. You're being unnecessarily literal because it goes against your opinion of him.

No, everyone is saying he has skills he clearly doesn't. Just because you're 18 doesn't mean you get credit for skills you don't have. Notice I don't discredit his jumper looking fine, or that he can run the floor well - those are pretty apparent. His defense and passing I'm extremely skeptical of because there is no real good evidence - just projection or "trust me, he made two passes, he's a good passer".

There are just too many bigs in this draft purported to have athleticism to be serviceable perimeter defenders, length to be rim protectors, and nice enough looking jumpers to develop into 3-pt threats. Bender, Ellenson, Skal, Davis, Chriss, Maker, Zhou Qi, Zimmerman, and I wouldn't be surprised if Zubac, Zizic, Diallo, Damian Jones and Diamond Stone all start working on 3pt shots.

There are just so many raw bigs that'll succeed based on development, that I don't think it's worth drafting one at 4, when there isn't a clear pronouncement that he's a cut above them.

I'm personally on the Buddy bandwagon, with Murray and Dunn as acceptable choices as well. Brown is preferable to Bender, but I don't love him either.

My ideal draft involves us taking Buddy and Valentine at 4 and 13 and Zimmerman at 28. I personally see more in Zimmerman than I do in Bender. He runs the floor well, he rebounds the ball, his shooting needs some work, but he's a pretty good PnR man. I like low-risk, high-reward gambles late. In the lottery, give me guys who'll give me something. Hield can shoot the lights out, --LAST year, he shot lights out, the 3 years prior he averaged 34.8% from 3, 81.3% FT%, TS% of 53%, eFG of 49.7%--none of those are "lights out", IMO, and that's 3 years of evidence vs 1 year. This last season was his "contract year, " and he played it beautifully. But he didn't reach a single shooting metric out of the last 3 years from this last season. That scares me. Before this season, he was barely a 1st Rounder; so if you are 'scared' of Bender, I'm shocked you aren't of Hield. Also, his PPR decreased every year. Switch Valentine and Hield around? I could live with, and while that may sound silly, my point is, I don't think Valentine makes it to 13, and if we secure Valentine at 4, and miss out on Hield, well, I'm fine with that. If Hield makes it to 13, then he's probably the BPA then. Hield is not an athletic freak; he's not much, if any, better of a shooter than Valentine, and he's less versatile. And yes, I've watched "video" of both.

Valentine--44.4% from 3 (7.5 APG), 85.3% FT%, TS% of 61%, eFG of 58%, 7.5 TRB, Asst 7.8, A/TO 2.84, PPR 7.25, WS/40 14.9, EFF/40 30.1.

Hield--45.7% from 3 (8.7 APG), 88% FT%, TS% of 67%, eFG of 62%, 5.7 TRB, Asst 2.0, A/TO .66, PPR -4.85, WS/40 11.4, EFF/40 25.5

The difference is, if you look at the last 3 years, Valentine was more consistently progressing, where Hield was kind of up and down.

And on Dunn, can you tell me why you like him better than Baldwin or Jackson?



Valentine is a proven jack-of-all trades. Plus they seem competitive as hell and have improved each year they've played in college.

[carey]

I get so confused reading your posts. Just curious but why do you write that way instead of breaking it up into quote blocks and responding?

[bwgood77]

I get so confused reading your posts. Just curious but why do you write that way instead of breaking it up into quote blocks and responding?

I was just thinking the same thing. It seems like it would be easier to read (and would take out a lot of the post that he is not responding to) if he just responded like this:

My ideal draft involves us taking Buddy and Valentine at 4 and 13 and Zimmerman at 28. I personally see more in Zimmerman than I do in Bender. He runs the floor well, he rebounds the ball, his shooting needs some work, but he's a pretty good PnR man. I like low-risk, high-reward gambles late. In the lottery, give me guys who'll give me something. Hield can shoot the lights out,

LAST year, he shot lights out, the 3 years prior he averaged 34.8% from 3, 81.3% FT%, TS% of 53%, eFG of 49.7%--none of those are "lights out", IMO, and that's 3 years of evidence vs 1 year. This last season was his "contract year, " and he played it beautifully. But he didn't reach a single shooting metric out of the last 3 years from this last season. That scares me. Before this season, he was barely a 1st Rounder; so if you are 'scared' of Bender, I'm shocked you aren't of Hield. Also, his PPR decreased every year. Switch Valentine and Hield around? I could live with, and while that may sound silly, my point is, I don't think Valentine makes it to 13, and if we secure Valentine at 4, and miss out on Hield, well, I'm fine with that. If Hield makes it to 13, then he's probably the BPA then. Hield is not an athletic freak; he's not much, if any, better of a shooter than Valentine, and he's less versatile. And yes, I've watched "video" of both.

Valentine--44.4% from 3 (7.5 APG), 85.3% FT%, TS% of 61%, eFG of 58%, 7.5 TRB, Asst 7.8, A/TO 2.84, PPR 7.25, WS/40 14.9, EFF/40 30.1.

Hield--45.7% from 3 (8.7 APG), 88% FT%, TS% of 67%, eFG of 62%, 5.7 TRB, Asst 2.0, A/TO .66, PPR -4.85, WS/40 11.4, EFF/40 25.5

The difference is, if you look at the last 3 years, Valentine was more consistently progressing, where Hield was kind of up and down.

And on Dunn, can you tell me why you like him better than Baldwin or Jackson?

Valentine is a proven jack-of-all trades. Plus they seem competitive as hell and have improved each year they've played in college.

[MrMiyagi]

Exactly, because all 18 year olds defend that way. Or maybe he's just being smart and realizing his wingspan is like 7'5" and that he can bother their shot while still playing off of them to prevent the drive or an easy foul call. At this point, I think there's nothing that could possibly be shown that would have you say a positive thing about Bender. Oh, and when somebody discusses your defensive potential by showing you defending well now, that has meaning. You're being unnecessarily literal because it goes against your opinion of him.

No, everyone is saying he has skills he clearly doesn't. Just because you're 18 doesn't mean you get credit for skills you don't have. Notice I don't discredit his jumper looking fine, or that he can run the floor well - those are pretty apparent. His defense and passing I'm extremely skeptical of because there is no real good evidence - just projection or "trust me, he made two passes, he's a good passer".

There are just too many bigs in this draft purported to have athleticism to be serviceable perimeter defenders, length to be rim protectors, and nice enough looking jumpers to develop into 3-pt threats. Bender, Ellenson, Skal, Davis, Chriss, Maker, Zhou Qi, Zimmerman, and I wouldn't be surprised if Zubac, Zizic, Diallo, Damian Jones and Diamond Stone all start working on 3pt shots.

There are just so many raw bigs that'll succeed based on development, that I don't think it's worth drafting one at 4, when there isn't a clear pronouncement that he's a cut above them.

I'm personally on the Buddy bandwagon, with Murray and Dunn as acceptable choices as well. Brown is preferable to Bender, but I don't love him either.

My ideal draft involves us taking Buddy and Valentine at 4 and 13 and Zimmerman at 28. I personally see more in Zimmerman than I do in Bender. He runs the floor well, he rebounds the ball, his shooting needs some work, but he's a pretty good PnR man. I like low-risk, high-reward gambles late. In the lottery, give me guys who'll give me something. Hield can shoot the lights out, --LAST year, he shot lights out, the 3 years prior he averaged 34.8% from 3, 81.3% FT%, TS% of 53%, eFG of 49.7%--none of those are "lights out", IMO, and that's 3 years of evidence vs 1 year. This last season was his "contract year, " and he played it beautifully. But he didn't reach a single shooting metric out of the last 3 years from this last season. That scares me. Before this season, he was barely a 1st Rounder; so if you are 'scared' of Bender, I'm shocked you aren't of Hield. Also, his PPR decreased every year. Switch Valentine and Hield around? I could live with, and while that may sound silly, my point is, I don't think Valentine makes it to 13, and if we secure Valentine at 4, and miss out on Hield, well, I'm fine with that. If Hield makes it to 13, then he's probably the BPA then. Hield is not an athletic freak; he's not much, if any, better of a shooter than Valentine, and he's less versatile. And yes, I've watched "video" of both.

Valentine--44.4% from 3 (7.5 APG), 85.3% FT%, TS% of 61%, eFG of 58%, 7.5 TRB, Asst 7.8, A/TO 2.84, PPR 7.25, WS/40 14.9, EFF/40 30.1.

Hield--45.7% from 3 (8.7 APG), 88% FT%, TS% of 67%, eFG of 62%, 5.7 TRB, Asst 2.0, A/TO .66, PPR -4.85, WS/40 11.4, EFF/40 25.5

The difference is, if you look at the last 3 years, Valentine was more consistently progressing, where Hield was kind of up and down.

And on Dunn, can you tell me why you like him better than Baldwin or Jackson?



Valentine is a proven jack-of-all trades. Plus they seem competitive as hell and have improved each year they've played in college.

Fair enough points. I feel like Buddy was hitting a lot of tough shots - not out of control, luck shots, but great form from distance that, even when contested, were connecting. Also, regarding Buddy vs. Bender - Bender hasn't had his season like Buddy did last year. And the argument is "Well, he's only 18". Sure, and Buddy was 18/19 as a freshman too. But I wouldn't have drafted him #4 had he come out then. If Bender had a season equitable to Buddy last season, I'd be all aboard.

Valentine vs. Hield
I largely agree with you. I love Valentine. I would take him at 4 and be completely fine with it. But I think that there are a lot of teams who aren't high on him and he has a better shot at being there at 13. They're busy staring at visions of the future to realize there's a solid as **** guy who'll get 14, 5 and 5 out of the gate.

Dunn vs. Baldwin and Jackson
Dunn was a better from 2 than Baldwin and a better from 3 than Jackson - but worse than both from the stripe. I feel like a lot of Baldwin's assists came from the offense, Dunn and Jackson created their assists from driving the ball. Dunn is bigger than Jackson. Dunn also had more Defensive Win Shares and a better Defensive rating than both of them.

EDIT: Dunn's defensive presence alongside Booker is what makes him an alright pick in my mind at 4. Bled is a good defender, but he's been injured so often, I'm not sure how he'll be going forward. Dunn being a bigger, healthier Bledsoe isn't a bad thing in my mind.

[Mustinjo]

https://deanondraft.com/category/big-boards/

This was posted in last September, before Porzingis played a minute in the NBA. Hope it proves that Zinger has nothing to do with Bender being highly rated as he is.

[MrMiyagi]

https://deanondraft.com/category/big-boards/

This was posted in last September, before Porzingis played a minute in the NBA. Hope it proves that Zinger has nothing to do with Bender being highly rated as he is.

Who?

[Midnight_Suns]

Precisely why I'd take Murray. He played point for Canada and did fine. If he's BPA, you take him and find a trade for Bledsoe this year.

You mean the game against the US under 19 group where he didnt break a single person down off the dribble? In every case that he drove it was from a pick n' roll or full court drive. I know some people have forgotten what a point guard should look like but you can always go watch Nash again https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcO9wQf083Y

So disregard pg prospects if they can't pass like nash? Got it.

He played great in college and was never asked to be a distributer.

[MrMiyagi]

Anyone know why Bender didn't play against the US in the 2015 FIBA U19 World Championship? He was on the team...
http://www.fiba.com/world/u19/2015/0507/USA-Croatia#|tab=boxscore_statistics

EDIT: Apparently he didn't play at all in the U19 Worlds....

[NavLDO]

The difference between skill and potential is one of consistency. You have defensive skills if you consistently show you can defend. If you defensive potential if you have the physical profile and have shown flashes of defensive skill. Hield and Murray have scoring ability/skills because they've shown they can score in a competitive environment. Bender has shown defensive potential because he's shown flashes he can defend and he might be able to do it at the next level if his body continues to develop as we expect.

Miyagi summed it up nicely, there are prospects with proven skills in a very well scouted environment (college basketball) and then there's Bender playing 14mpg in Europe who's best projected skills are skills which are still a work in progress and highly dependant on physical maturity and skills development.

I'm all in favor of taking a less polished product over a ready to contribute player if their star potential far outweighs their current production. I don't see the star potential.

And I'm ok with that frame of mind. But I would also, add then, if "you" (as in the general "you", not "you" specifically) don't desire to select Bender based upon his philosophy, then at least select a prospect worthy of the draft position, at a position of need, or one with versatility. Hield, nor Dunn, are those prospects. Murray (PG/S), Brown (SG/S/Small-Ball PF), Valentine (PG/SG/SF), Skal (PF/C), Chriss (SF/PF), Baldwin (PG/SG), or Davis(PF/C), do have such versatility. Dunn doesn't shoot well enough to be a SG, and Hield's PPR has declined every year, and doesn't have the length, IMO, to play SF effectively enough (though I could very well be wrong) And TBH, Poeltl might be the best prospect no one is slobbering over. Sure, we have Len, but other than him, we have a 34 YO. Poeltl (and no one better bring up the obvious mistake in Standing Reach measurement--never in the history of the NBA draft has there been a 7'1" player, with a 7'3" Wingspan, with only an 8'9.5" Reach). But look at his TS% of .63 and .66, and eFG of .68 and .64, and his FT% of 69.4% this year (up from 43% last year, which is concerning). But his A/TO for a C is excellent at nearly 1.00, along wth his WS/40 of 16.2. I'd much rather select a C with proven skills, than a PG with mediocre skills, or a SG when we have one.

So taking Bender out, and assuming Simmons and Ingram are gone, I'd probably go:

1. Brown
2. Valentine
3. Chriss
4. Davis
5. Poeltl
6. Skal
7. Murray
8. Ellenson
9. Hield
10. Baldwin

And the reason Baldwin is over Dunn is his length to defend as a SG (almost 2" longer Wingspan)? Plus his advantage in career A/TO, PPR, Asst/FGA, 3PT%, FT%, TS%, eFG%, 3PA/FGA, and FTA/FGA. Though Dunn has an advantage in Stls, Blks, WS/40, EFF/40. and 2PT%.

[MrMiyagi]

The difference between skill and potential is one of consistency. You have defensive skills if you consistently show you can defend. If you defensive potential if you have the physical profile and have shown flashes of defensive skill. Hield and Murray have scoring ability/skills because they've shown they can score in a competitive environment. Bender has shown defensive potential because he's shown flashes he can defend and he might be able to do it at the next level if his body continues to develop as we expect.

Miyagi summed it up nicely, there are prospects with proven skills in a very well scouted environment (college basketball) and then there's Bender playing 14mpg in Europe who's best projected skills are skills which are still a work in progress and highly dependant on physical maturity and skills development.

I'm all in favor of taking a less polished product over a ready to contribute player if their star potential far outweighs their current production. I don't see the star potential.

And I'm ok with that frame of mind. But I would also, add then, if "you" (as in the general "you", not "you" specifically) don't desire to select Bender based upon his philosophy, then at least select a prospect worthy of the draft position, at a position of need, or one with versatility. Hield, nor Dunn, are those prospects. Murray (PG/S), Brown (SG/S/Small-Ball PF), Valentine (PG/SG/SF), Skal (PF/C), Chriss (SF/PF), Baldwin (PG/SG), or Davis(PF/C), do have such versatility. Dunn doesn't shoot well enough to be a SG, and Hield's PPR has declined every year, and doesn't have the length, IMO, to play SF effectively enough (though I could very well be wrong) And TBH, Poeltl might be the best prospect no on is slobbering over. Sure, we have Len, but other than him, we have a 34 YO. Poeltl (and no ne better bring up the obvious mistake in Standing Reach measurement--never in the history of the NBA draft has there been a 7'1" player, with a 7'3" Wingspan, with only an 8'9.5" Reach). But look at his TS% of .63 and .66, and eFG of .68 and .64, and his FT% of 69.4% this year (up from 43% last year, which is concerning). But his A/TO for a C is excellent at nearly 1.00, along wth his WS/40 of 16.2. I'd much rather select a C with proven skills, than a PG with mediocre skills, or a SG when we have one.

So taking Bender out, and assuming Simmons and Ingram are gone, I'd probably go:

1. Brown
2. Valentine
3. Chriss
4. Davis
5. Poeltl
6. Skal
7. Murray
8. Ellenson
9. Hield
10. Baldwin

And the reason Baldwin is over Dunn is his length to defend as a SG (almost 2" longer Wingspan)? Plus his advantage in career A/TO, PPR, Asst/FGA, 3PT%, FT%, TS%, eFG%, 3PA/FGA, and FTA/FGA. Though Dunn has an advantage in Stls, Blks, WS/40, EFF/40. and 2PT%.

What is this PPR you keep mentioning?

[carey]

Anyone know why Bender didn't play against the US in the 2015 FIBA U19 World Championship? He was on the team...
http://www.fiba.com/world/u19/2015/0507/USA-Croatia#|tab=boxscore_statistics

EDIT: Apparently he didn't play at all in the U19 Worlds....

Yup. There was an issue with his shoe deal believe it or not. Go back and read Givony's tweets about it during that time if you really care. Stupid all around.

[Mustinjo]

Anyone know why Bender didn't play against the US in the 2015 FIBA U19 World Championship? He was on the team...
http://www.fiba.com/world/u19/2015/0507/USA-Croatia#|tab=boxscore_statistics

EDIT: Apparently he didn't play at all in the U19 Worlds....

Because Croatian basketball association tried to force him in the last minute to play in Air Jordan sneakers (Bender has a contract with Adidas). He travelled with team and played normally before WC but literally before the first game they changed their stance and he had to watch all the games from the stands because they didn't allow him to play in Adidas and they didn't want to pay the penalties from his contract if he played in Jordans.

[NavLDO]

College 3 point %

Curry 41
Thompson 39

Booker 41
Hield 39

We could be the only team in the NBA able to match them.

I am confused as to what part of nether Booker or Hield being point guards you are missing? Hield isnt know as being a strong passer and while that is a part of Bookers game he isnt a starter level point guard.

Yeah, change Hield to Murray (40.8%) or Baldwin (40.6%) last season--yeah, I know, that overshoots Curry, but what are ya gonna do??? You could go Demetrious Jackson or Ulis, if you're willing to do 37% instead of 39%...

Oooh, nevermind...found it. We take Caris LeVert (who I really like, BTW) at 34...now THERE is your career 39% (39.56% to be exact).

I think Caris is similar to Valentine in he was asked to play more of the Point this year, as he had an outstanding 5.41 PPR and 3.14 A/TO. Why is he rated as a mid-2nd guy? Is it his injuries? He has great size (6'7") and decent length (6'10") for either Guard spot, is a good rebounder, and pretty decent Stl rate. 12.9 WS/40 and 25.7 EFF/40 this season, as well.

[sunsbum]

If Valentine is drafted at #4 I will....I'm not gunna type what I would do to Sarver and Mcd. But it involves a lot of keyboards with loose keys and very little lube, if any at all.

Thankfully, I don't see us drafting another 2 guard or a better version of Jared Dudley at #4.

[MrMiyagi]

If Valentine is drafted at #4 I will....I'm not gunna type what I would do to Sarver and Mcd. But it involves a lot of keyboards with loose keys and very little lube, if any at all.

Thankfully, I don't see us drafting another 2 guard or a better version of Jared Dudley at #4.

Bruh, have you even seen Valentine play?

[Mustinjo]

I'd much rather have Valentine than Buddy Hield. Not at #4, but even if somehow both were available at #13 my pick would be Valentine.