Suns Offseason Thread 4: Where's Terrence Williams?

[Wannabe MEP]

Weren't you just saying that Golden State were statistically better when Bogut was on the bench? But now you say that they relied on him?

Is that what I said? I'm pretty sure I said that they kicked @$$ like this: Curry-Klay-Barnes-Iggy-Draymond, but they hesitated to use that because it's outside-the-box. But they also kicked @$$ like this: Curry-Klay-Barnes-Draymond-Bogut.

Shocker of shockers: both things are true!!! Both styles were important to winning a title. I'd put Bogut as about the 4th or 5th most important player to winning their title. So yeah, they "relied" on him.

I HIGHLY value defensive frontcourts. I also HIGHLY value spacing. Those two things are not mutually exclusive...but it's difficult to do both well. GS straddled that line brilliantly.

You know what wasn't important to winning a title? David Lee-Bogut frontcourts.

And for every Curry, Nash and Griffin, the Knicks will raise you Amare, the Suns Penny Hardaway... Baron Davis, Arenas... Miami took a risk on Oden... Timberwolves with Brandon Roy... Just off the top of my head. I'm sure the list is much longer than my memory suggests.

Agree to...agree. It's not black-and-white. I don't think anything I wrote suggested otherwise.

I'd just emphasize, though, that "has had injury problems" is not the same thing as "has no cartilage in his knees".

[Cutter]

Does anyone know if Markieff and the Suns have talked yet? As of about a week ago McD insinuated in an interview that the FO has been trying to contact Keef, but hadn't been successful. This implies that Keef was intentionally dodging McD and Hornacek's calls. If accurate I really hope Keef can get past the hurt and anger of his bro getting traded very soon. If they haven't done so already, I am confident he and the FO will patch things up soon.

[Frank Lee]

Suppose KeifMo opts for the pissy route ? Then what ? It is a distinct possibility.

Then "KiefMo" is getting in way, way over his head on some battles he is not equipped to fight. In short, if he opts for the pissy route...he's really, really screwed.

The Suns hold every single card in a Keef standoff. All of them. Literally every single avenue for Keef to generate sympathy or leverage is closed off to him.

.........

Nice brief councilor ...

but it still comes down to a very simple request by Keif to play elsewhere. Its not a power play, as you point out, he has no real 'power'.. (considering he is technically a power forward, no pun intended)

I think any avenues out of Phnx will be back room trip ticking handled by his agent. I'd be surprised if we hear anything from the KeifMo camp until the aftermath. Then it will likely be some eye poking tweets.

I could really care less if he remained a Sun... but if he does, I want him all in. He ponies up, he'll get back on good graces.

[bwgood77]

Does anyone know if Markieff and the Suns have talked yet? As of about a week ago McD insinuated in an interview that the FO has been trying to contact Keef, but hadn't been successful. This implies that Keef was intentionally dodging McD and Hornacek's calls. If accurate I really hope Keef can get past the hurt and anger of his bro getting traded very soon. If they haven't done so already, I am confident he and the FO will patch things up soon.

I think we all need to wait for more info on this stuff before jumping to conclusions. No one knows if we have to patch things up at all.

[AtheJ415]

Any reports on what players are working on aside from Warren on defense and Len on jumpers? Is Kieff working on the 3 ball? Is Tucker working on not being an orange cone on offense?

[gaspar]

McNeal's contract becomes fully guaranteed if not waived today.

[AtheJ415]

How they produce matters. For instance, how Deandre Jordan scores is nowhere near as valuable as basically every other offensive player who isn't primarily an offensive rebounder.
.

...did I miss the memo somewhere where producing a steady stream of very high percentage dunks is suddenly not valuable? Clearly it's marred by his ass tastic FT% but it doesn't change the fact that Deandre performs the best shot in basketball over and over and over and converts at an excellent percentage

Are you trying to suggest it's difficult to guard Deandre Jordan?

"If you left DeAndre Jordan in the gym all night and told him he couldn't dunk he'd have 6 points in the morning." -- Sir Chuck

[TASTIC]

McNeal's contract becomes fully guaranteed if not waived today.

He's been invisible in SL, thoroughly outplayed by the two guys he's competing against.

Have to waive him, that's dead money.

He's 28, a tweener, doesn't have any one good skill and he hasn't done anything in the SL to warrant paying him nearly $1m...

[Saberestar]

McNeal's contract becomes fully guaranteed if not waived today.

He's been invisible in SL, thoroughly outplayed by the two guys he's competing against.

Have to waive him, that's dead money.

He's 28, a tweener, doesn't have any one good skill and he hasn't done anything in the SL to warrant paying him nearly $1m...

IF McNeal is not waived today, two only reasons comes to my mind to justify that decision :

1. He will be attached on a future trade.
2. McDonough is banging his sister and she wants her lovely brother around.

[BobbieL]

McNeal's contract becomes fully guaranteed if not waived today.

He's been invisible in SL, thoroughly outplayed by the two guys he's competing against.

Have to waive him, that's dead money.

He's 28, a tweener, doesn't have any one good skill and he hasn't done anything in the SL to warrant paying him nearly $1m...

IF McNeal is not waived today, two only reasons comes to my mind to justify that decision :

1. He will be attached on a future trade.
2. McDonough is banging his sister and she wants her lovely brother around.

It may be a moot point with the signings of Weems and Mirko T- but has Knight signed?

Things needed to get done before he signs?

[NavLDO]

Why would we want or need Gallo when we just signed Mirza who does almost all the same things?

Because Gallinari is way better than Teletovic? I really like when people compare players easily because they have a similar skill set. ...
It is like when in 2010 our FO signed Warrick to replace Amare because they had a similar skill set....but...but...one it was 10 times better than the other.
Teletovic is a decent player, but Gallinari is better than him AT EVERYTHING. And I am not a big fan of Gallinari at all, but this is obvious to me.

And Markieff is obviously better than Gallinari.... so there is no point. We have a better player than Gallo already on the team, and a guy that fills the same role as Gallo on the roster albeit not as efficient but even that is arguable.

And that's not true, anyway. The two are within 2/100ths of a % in all shooting % except for FT%, which also makes his TS% higher, but we're talking less than .05 difference. So, no, it's not OBVIOUS. Additionally, Teletovic has a higher per36 Total Reb (7.2 to 5.4), a better Defensive Rating (though much small gap than Gallo's Offensive Rating advantage).

But, what's most interesting is how Teletovic's game IMPROVES in the playoffs, whereas Gallo's decline significantly--like to the point that Teletovic has an EFG% of .523 to Gallo's .424--that's a full tenth of a % point. Here's how badly Gallo declines in the playoffs--and we're talking over 12 games, so not like 3 or something. Mirza has 16 games. First number is Regular Season, 2nd number is Playoffs:

Gallo: EFG% .503 to .424 -- Mirza: .515 to .523 (and notice Mirza'a advantage in regular season as well)

Gallo: 2PT% .461 to .420 -- Mirza: .467 to .620 (again, Mirza advantage in both)

Gallo: WS/48 .129 to .062 -- Mirza: .071 to .082

Gallo: TS% .574 to .488 -- Mirza: .529 to .536

Of course, stats aren't everything, especially in a vacuum where nothing else is considered, but I think they at LEAST show that Gallo's not OBVIOUSLY better than Teletovic, especially considering the difference in cost, when Mirza costs less than half of Gallinari's, and Kieff's which is over $3M less per year...

[SkinnyOMiller]

OKC is looking to dump Steve Novak, I wonder if the Suns had any interest in him prior to signing Teletovic. I think that move would preclude bringing him in, especially with them being over the cap but he's an interesting prospect, a pure shooter and little else. This is the last year of his contract.

[aIvin adams]

watching yesterday's game this morning.

holy crap is booker NBA ready or am I experiencing SL delusions?

and LOL these announcers are so harsh on Alex Len.

[SkinnyOMiller]

watching yesterday's game this morning.

holy crap is booker NBA ready or am I experiencing SL delusions?

and LOL these announcers are so harsh on Alex Len.

1. A bit of both. Booker looks better than I expected but I still think he spends a lot of time down in the NBDL this season.


2. Utah announcers couldn't help themselves from going fulll homer mode at times.

[tdjm]

McNeal's contract is unguaranteed until the 21st, according to Sportrac. There's still time to waive him.

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/phoenix-suns/jerel-mcneal/

Contract Notes:

2015 non-guaranteed, full if not waived on or before 7/21/15

[JMac1]

watching yesterday's game this morning.

holy crap is booker NBA ready or am I experiencing SL delusions?

and LOL these announcers are so harsh on Alex Len.

1. A bit of both. Booker looks better than I expected but I still think he spends a lot of time down in the NBDL this season.


2. Utah announcers couldn't help themselves from going fulll homer mode at times.

Why?

[Saberestar]

I'm told if Bogdan Bogdanovic has another monster season - named recent European Rising Star - he'll join Phoenix Suns for 2016/2017.

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAmDPick/status/621281505042661376

[GDFTony]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/IAmDPick/status/621281505042661376[/tweet]

[Saberestar]

Because Gallinari is way better than Teletovic? I really like when people compare players easily because they have a similar skill set. ...
It is like when in 2010 our FO signed Warrick to replace Amare because they had a similar skill set....but...but...one it was 10 times better than the other.
Teletovic is a decent player, but Gallinari is better than him AT EVERYTHING. And I am not a big fan of Gallinari at all, but this is obvious to me.

And Markieff is obviously better than Gallinari.... so there is no point. We have a better player than Gallo already on the team, and a guy that fills the same role as Gallo on the roster albeit not as efficient but even that is arguable.

And that's not true, anyway. The two are within 2/100ths of a % in all shooting % except for FT%, which also makes his TS% higher, but we're talking less than .05 difference. So, no, it's not OBVIOUS. Additionally, Teletovic has a higher per36 Total Reb (7.2 to 5.4), a better Defensive Rating (though much small gap than Gallo's Offensive Rating advantage).

But, what's most interesting is how Teletovic's game IMPROVES in the playoffs, whereas Gallo's decline significantly--like to the point that Teletovic has an EFG% of .523 to Gallo's .424--that's a full tenth of a % point. Here's how badly Gallo declines in the playoffs--and we're talking over 12 games, so not like 3 or something. Mirza has 16 games. First number is Regular Season, 2nd number is Playoffs:

Gallo: EFG% .503 to .424 -- Mirza: .515 to .523 (and notice Mirza'a advantage in regular season as well)

Gallo: 2PT% .461 to .420 -- Mirza: .467 to .620 (again, Mirza advantage in both)

Gallo: WS/48 .129 to .062 -- Mirza: .071 to .082

Gallo: TS% .574 to .488 -- Mirza: .529 to .536

Of course, stats aren't everything, especially in a vacuum where nothing else is considered, but I think they at LEAST show that Gallo's not OBVIOUSLY better than Teletovic, especially considering the difference in cost, when Mirza costs less than half of Gallinari's, and Kieff's which is over $3M less per year...

Come on...these two players are not on the same tier, I value statistics but here I think it's not even necessary to understand who is the better player of them. If we make a poll I think 90% or more would choose Gallinari over Teletovic (like a better player and nothing more..not looking contracts, fit, etc....).

He is the better player, and our team need the better players that we can have to fight for the playoffs and, in the future, fight for a championship. I don't know if we can trade for Gallinari, but if we have the oportunity I would do it...I wouldn't say "we have Teletovic so we don't need Gallinari here".

[Wannabe MEP]

And that's not true, anyway. The two are within 2/100ths of a % ... [lots of random box score stats].

I have a hard time with a player comparison that's entirely composed of box score stats...even though you're using the good ones. I believe in combining more than one of the following:

1. Some version of APM/RAPM
2. Lineup analysis
3. Per possession* and/or advanced box score stats
4. Eye test

* I don't think per game box score stats are even worth looking at.

I feel like using just 3, just 4, or even a combo of just 3 & 4, is mostly a waste of time. 3 and 4 can definitely be helpful, but you've gotta have some of #1 and/or #2 in there to paint a full picture.

Ok, so here are some 2015 RAPM numbers to get started.

• Gallinari +1.77
• Teletovic -1.04

This version of multi-year RAPM has Gallo as a plus on both offense and defense, and has Telly as a minus on both offense and defense. That difference, 2.81, is a little bit bigger than the difference between Kevin Garnett and Glen Davis...or the difference between Derrick Rose and Michael Carter-Williams...or the difference between Marc Gasol and Jeff Withey.

Now, let's all agree that no version of RAPM is perfect/has all the answers. But let's also agree that a case based on a few box score numbers from a couple of playoff series does not automatically trump multiple years worth of RAPM data that shows a LARGE gap in on-court effectiveness. You gotta have more than that.