2016 Draft Thread Part 4

[JMac1]

...for only 1 out of 4 seasons...he was very 'average' his Sophomore/Junior seasons, and 'below average' his Freshman season.

So go ahead and 'shut-down' any further discussion on Hield, but he's not 'Superman' and 'choked' pretty hard on the biggest stage of his career against Villanova in the Final Four. He has 'holes' in his game, just like a lot of other prospects. His defense is 'meh' his PPR and A/TO declined EVERY YEAR--his worst overall season as a Freshman was his BEST season for those metrics. His A/TO, from Freshman to Senior went: 1.14, 1.03, .99, .66 ; his PPR went -1.62, -1.80, -2.10, -4.85.

And it was noted yesterday, I think by Ford, that history is not on Hield's side for success in the NBA for those that were average players, then suddenly had one outlier season. When your TS% and eFG% go from .55 and .51 respectively, in his Junior Season, to .67 and .62 as a Senior--that is an outlier, and not one I personally am taking stock in, in being an accurate reflection of how he'll perform in the NBA.

So I'm not sure why you feel that Hield is a 'can't miss prospect' and will be the BPA at 4 when we pick, but it's not a 'slam-dunk' case for Hield.

I definitely hear you, but Kobe said it best.....which I posted. So whatever.

I never EVER said he was a can't miss. I want to pick him at four, so that means he is a can't miss? You want to pick someone else and that means what?

He is a baller 1 out of 4 season or whatever. The guy can ball.

You're right, you didn't, but you've indicated you've shutdown any further conversation, or even entertaining that any other prospect available at 4 is on the level of Hield with the way you worded your statements. They are ALL ballers--Chriss, Ellenson, Bender, Dunn, Davis, Skal, etc., etc. But each have their weaknesses as well.

Why, pray tell, is it 'ludicrous' to argue against Hield? To me, that sounds an awfully lot like he's the 'clear-cut' best prospect, and I'm sorry, but that is just an opinion, not a statement of absolute truth. Hield 'choked' in the Final Four--4/12 shooting, 1/8 from 3. If he's such a 'baller', why didn't he dominate that game?? I'm going overboard here, and do not believe for a minute that a player can be defined by ONE game--good or bad--only that he does have flaws, and maybe he's not at his best on the 'big stage'??

IDK, again, just speculating, but I'd feel better about selecting Brice Johnson, who is also a senior, also played in the Final Four, played in the Finals, and had 14 pts on 6/10 shooting, 2/3 FTs, 8 TRBs, and a block. Or his Final Four game against Syracuse with 16 pts on 6/11 shooting, 4/6 FTs, 9 TRBs, and a Block. He averaged 19pts/9.3 TRBs throughout the tournament. THAT is a baller...

Or how about Marcus Paige SG-turned-PG-prospect. Biggest stage of his career his final two games, and all he did was:

vs. Syracuse--13pts, 5/11 shooting, 3/7 from 3PT, 2 TRBs, 3 Assts, 1 BLK, 1 STL

vs. Villanova--21pts, 7/17 shooting, 4/7 from 3PT, 5 TRBs, 6 Assts, 1 STL

...in fact, he was 20/41 from 3 throughout the entire tournament play, as opposed to Hield who was 20/48 (19/40 before Final 4 game)

...so why isn't Marcus Paige a 'Baller'?? Excellent career A/TO and PPR numbers. A 38.2% 3PT% through his first 3 years, compared to Hield's 34.9% 3PT%. Or his 86.7% FT% vs Hield's 81.3% FT%.

My point in all this drivel is that Hield had a spectacular year; no one is arguing that. But to base a prospect upon one year's worth of statistics, when the other 3 seasons were very 'average', to me, is a 'red flag'. Basing a prospect's value for a Freshman is darn near impossible, for similar reasons. But if I'm picking 4th overall, and I look at Hield, and while the evidence is not the most recent, it's still there, that Hield was 'average' for 3 years, then spectacular for 1 year, I would proceed extremely cautiously. I'd want to know what happened between his Junior and Senior year. Did the coach see a level of dedication, 'hunger', and commitment to bettering himself, and thus, accomplished just that. Or did the coach see similar preparation levels, desire, etc., and the player just happened to start off hot and 'rode the wave', as it were; basically, was it just a confidence thing. And if so, what happens when he comes into the league and now is facing 25, 28, 30 YO NBA players instead of 'beating up' on 18/19 YO young'ns, or 'yutes'. What happens when he loses that confidence. Does he have the ability to overcome that adversity?

He basically had 3 of 5 good games in the tournament; will he only show up 60% of the time when the 'lights are the brightest'?

Point blank--a prospect like Hield scares the bejesus out of me, especially at 4th overall. I'd rather try my luck with a young, impressionable guy like Chriss, Ellenson, Bender, etc. One I can 'mold', not one who feels they've already 'arrived' or has it all figured out like Dunn is demonstrating. Hield, not so much, but still, that situation scares me more than taking a guy with high upside. It's a personal preference. I'm not saying the way I'm viewing it is the correct way to look at it, but at 4th overall, I want the 'upside' guy; at 13, we can take the 'higher floor' type prospect.

[Saberestar]

Sport Science - Dragan Bender's measurable tools

https://t.co/3YUhZTYHbj

[Mustinjo]

LOL @ second hand stories from workouts. Are people seriously dumb enough to buy that crap?

[8on]

I can see Hield on this team. He won't be the pick. We have scorers.

There is an abnormally high percentage that he'll be Michael Redd or Kevin Martin in a very short period of time - maybe 20%. For most guys, the odds that they ever get there are probably between 10 and 40%. With Devin Booker, at this point, it's very likely to happen in two more years.

If there's a 16% chance he's already Redd or Martin, then there's a 5-9% chance he's already Manu Ginobili. There's a 1% chance that he's Steph Curry. That would be amazing, but there's only one Steph, so let's rule that out together. He is not Steph Curry. The odds of anyone ever becoming that good are less than 3%. 1 out of thousands of guys. Ray and Reggie span 30 years, and Steph is twice as good as them.

If there's a 16% chance he's already Redd or Martin, then there's an 84% chance that he's a little worse, will get neutralized pretty easily due to predictability, won't have the right opportunity, or won't develop much in the next three years.

If one of those things happens - and it is VERY likely - if ANY one of those things happened, he will not be an All-Star.

So there's a big risk with Buddy. It's especially true if we can't find someone to trade for Bledsoe or Knight. If Buddy doesn't pan out, then we can't stash him on the bench. Besides, we already have Devin Booker. That would be a pretty short, non-defensive set of wings. I don't see how we end up any better than the SSOL Suns with those two on the wings. Unless one of them becomes Steph Curry, and I don't think either will ever be that good.

in other words......i don't think it's happening. it's not strategic, it's not smart, it ignores our current talent, it forces us to trade, and you never know how Hield would really turn out.

i'd MUCH rather wait 5 years for Marquese Chriss to develop than let Buddy and Booker be our wings. It's a sexy duo, but it won't win games.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Don't evaluate players based on YouTube highlights please, try to watch whole games instead, you'll get much better picture about someone's game that way.

The problem is two-fold: 1) who has the time to watch every prospects' games, and 2) players have off-games, and they have on-games, so you'd need to watch a large sample.

Most of us can only watch the "Strengths" and "Weaknesses" videos, which to me, is about the best we can do.

I'm not knocking what you are saying; I agree. But it's the ability to actually do this that is the problem.

Totally with you on this. I don't even like college basketball so will always watch an NBA game when I have time to watch hoops.

I completely take the word of the folks who get paid to judge these guys strengths and weaknesses and then form an opinion based on the prospects profile.

[sunsbum]

Buddy just doesnt make any sense for the suns right now with booker, you can at least acknowledge that right?
Also, his parents must have been high as **** when they came up with his name. Jamaica right? Yea, super high.

[RaisingArizona]

^huh? Aimed at Dantley, btw.

[8on]

^huh? Aimed at Dantley, btw.

what seems to be the disagreement?

[sunsbum]

I can see Hield on this team. He won't be the pick. We have scorers.

There is an abnormally high percentage that he'll be Michael Redd or Kevin Martin in a very short period of time - maybe 20%. For most guys, the odds that they ever get there are probably between 10 and 40%. With Devin Booker, at this point, it's very likely to happen in two more years.

If there's a 16% chance he's already Redd or Martin, then there's a 5-9% chance he's already Manu Ginobili. There's a 1% chance that he's Steph Curry. That would be amazing, but there's only one Steph, so let's rule that out together. He is not Steph Curry. The odds of anyone ever becoming that good are less than 3%. 1 out of thousands of guys. Ray and Reggie span 30 years, and Steph is twice as good as them.

If there's a 16% chance he's already Redd or Martin, then there's an 84% chance that he's a little worse, will get neutralized pretty easily due to predictability, won't have the right opportunity, or won't develop much in the next three years.

If one of those things happens - and it is VERY likely - if ANY one of those things happened, he will not be an All-Star.

So there's a big risk with Buddy. It's especially true if we can't find someone to trade for Bledsoe or Knight. If Buddy doesn't pan out, then we can't stash him on the bench. Besides, we already have Devin Booker. That would be a pretty short, non-defensive set of wings. I don't see how we end up any better than the SSOL Suns with those two on the wings. Unless one of them becomes Steph Curry, and I don't think either will ever be that good.

in other words......i don't think it's happening. it's not strategic, it's not smart, it ignores our current talent, it forces us to trade, and you never know how Hield would really turn out.

i'd MUCH rather wait 5 years for Marquese Chriss to develop than let Buddy and Booker be our wings. It's a sexy duo, but it won't win games.

my pleb brain hurted with all those statistic number things.

[8on]

Don't evaluate players based on YouTube highlights please, try to watch whole games instead, you'll get much better picture about someone's game that way.

i don't actually agree with this.

here's what you know: you know percentages (turnover percentages, field goal percentages) from looking at stats. you see their worst clips, which happen numerous times over the course of a game, and you know how often those worst things happen based on stats. you know his best moments from looking at the strengths videos.

i feel like i know enough. there are only so many types of players.

the trick is to weed out bias. if i automatically classify a player a certain way, i might be blind to certain things that he does or doesn't do, has or doesn't have, is or is not. that's when you get a bust or a steal. otherwise, i think most guys are pretty straight forward.

[NavLDO]

Hield was also a BEAST as a HS Senior. Not great his first three years in HS, but by the time he is one of the oldest and most experienced guys on the floor he can DOMINATE! I expect based on this trend, that by the time he is an elder statesman in the league, if he lasts, he will feast on the youngens coming in! Can't wait! Dude's a baller.

So what you are saying is that if we draft Hield, we can expect for him to BALL-OUT in our '19-'20 season...cool. By then, We'll have pissed off Booker somehow, and he'll go play for another team, allowing Hield to 'dominate' in that season for our SG position. OK, I'm patient. Good thing drafting the Senior will make us competitive sooner than Bender or Chriss...

Can't wait til you guys are crying in your bed at night watching Buddy light it up EARLY in the season for Minny or NO. I can't wait

"How did Minny get so lucky?" is what I will be hearing. This is so 2009 all over again.

So Hield's gonna waltz right in and start over Zach LaVine or Shabazz Muhammed in Minny, or ahead of the 4-5 talented wings the Pelicans have? OK. If you say so. But I DO know I won't be crying why we are overpaying/starting Leuer or Tele at PF because we have Hield sitting on the bench behind Bledsoe, Knight, and Booker. Or worse, 'forcing' Booker to 'fail' at SF because he grew an inch and gets destroyed even worse on D.

I guess you didn't read that bit from Ford that states that NBA Scouts has Hield as a Tier 4 prospect???

[8on]

I guess you didn't read that bit from Ford that states that NBA Scouts has Hield as a Tier 4 prospect???

if we draft based on what Chad Ford says that NBA scouts think, i will fly to Phoenix and tape a "Fire McD" poster to the podium before McD introduces the rookies. giant, red Sharpie.

[darealjuice]

Man, if Buddy ends up being just a role player JMac is gonna be eating a lot of crow lol

[8on]

with Buddy it depends on the situation! i think there's a really good chance he ends up in New Orleans, which means he'll have the opportunity to show us what he can do.

[NavLDO]

Buddy Hield says he’s concluded his pre-draft workouts. Here’s the teams he said he worked out for: LAL, Celtics, Pelicans, TWolves, Suns.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SerenaWinters/status/744267143747821568

So you are telling me there's a chance??

At 13? Sure, that would be a decent value I guess. The Lakers do own the 24th pick, Boston the 16th, the Wolves ONLY pick is the 5th, so they don't have much choice in the matter....but hey, if they want to reach for a Tier 4 player at 5th overall, please, by all means...and 9th overall is actually probably about right.

[Zelaznyrules]

So the Lakers are throwing out the trash and some here want to pay the Lakers to pick it up?

Apparently. Makes me wonder if there's an alternate dimension NBA that I don't know about.

[rsavaj]

I guess you didn't read that bit from Ford that states that NBA Scouts has Hield as a Tier 4 prospect???

if we draft based on what Chad Ford says that NBA scouts think, i will fly to Phoenix and tape a "Fire McD" poster to the podium before McD introduces the rookies. giant, red Sharpie.

If you look at the article I posted, it looks like his tiers do a good job at pegging the general order of how the prospects get drafted.

That doesn't mean he pegs their outlook as players properly; many players bust relative to their draft position, and some, like Booker, surprise.

But his tier structure is a pretty good tool to use when trying to figure out how teams rank these guys. For whatever reasons, scouts and GMs believe Hield is a tier below the Murray/Dunn/Bender/Brown/Chriss group. That doesn't mean he won't be better than those guys...he absolutely could be. But for now, going off the information we have at hand, he's not considered on their level by the decision makers.

[Gant]

First off, Go Suns!!!

Ok. I'm not a Suns fan. I have a Phoenix question unrelated to the draft or basketball at all for that matter. But in regards to the draft: I hope the Suns get a great player and do unexpectedly well next year.


Here's the question: I was looking at your weather forecast!!! How the hell? I mean, O My Freakin God, look at this: https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/USAZ0166:1:US

Look at it! How do you cope? Your lows are higher than our highs. 120 degrees? I hope that if this is the apocalypse you are all having a good one.

Once again, Go Suns! ...and please don't die.

[Kerrsed]

Man, if Buddy ends up being just a role player JMac is gonna be eating a lot of crow lol

Dont forget about all the other "Lights Our Shooting Stars" that didnt even make it as a role player, like Jimmer and Morrison.

[NavLDO]

Chad Ford saying D'Angelo Russell may be available for another top pick (the Lakers have a lot of interest in Brown, Hield and Chriss). I'd probably trade #4 + something else for Russell given how young he is and his relationship with Booker.

Ah, hell naw, not after that off-court debacle with Russell. How do you trust a guy like that in your locker room. No, no, and hell no, IMO.

But if McD DOES do that trade, I demand Randle with him...maybe #4, Knight, Tucker for Russell and Randle. Yeah, I know, ain't happenin', but seriously, if we trade for Russell, we better be trading away Knight, and I'd want to swap 34 for 32, or something to that effect, as well.