Dragan Bender News, Discussion and Highlights

[Villalobos]

cc: Thespianoid

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[GlenRiceARoni]

The early returns on Dragan Bender are EXTREMELY encouraging IMO.

Typically, you can tell very quickly if a big man's skills will translate in the NBA. It's just one of those positions where you either have it or you don't. Late bloomers are few and far between unlike guards (Billups, Kemba, Lowry, Conley, etc).

Whenever a guy has a unique skillset (a 7'1 shooter in this case) you really just need to make sure he doesnt have glaring deficiencies in other areas that keep him off the floor.

For a big man, first and foremost he has to be a strong rebounder/rim protector OR he has to be able to guard perimeter players, switch/rotate effectively. Dragan appears to be the latter. He's in the mold of a Cody Zeller on defense where his rebounding/rim protection isn't great but he can help against penetration, pick&rolls, and general rotation duties.

This is significantly more important than people give credit for. Everyone appreciates the Embiid type of defender but they tend to overrate the contributions of Jordan, Whiteside, and Drummond type defenders.

The NBA is all about getting initial penetration. If your center is Al Jefferson, Enes Kanter, or Jahlil Okafor they'll be put in PNR's repeatedly which compromises your entire defense and forces you to choose between easy buckets or open 3's.

His 6 rebounds per 36 minutes is a minor concern but his age and nice looking frame should alleviate most of that. Also, since he will play on the perimeter on offense it will be quite easy to pair him with another good rebounder in the frontcourt if necessary.

His advanced statistics and defensive metrics show that he's pretty much a neutral defender as a 19 year old rookie. This is quite rare particularly for a guy who clearly isn't at full strength & conditioning yet. I believe his minutes are being restricted so the Suns can pritiorize his health and body adaptations this season.

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[GlenRiceARoni]

Offensively, there's no question about it Bender is a GIANT negative on the floor right now. That's somewhat to be expected for a 19 yo, but the raw numbers are pretty ugly.

His turnover rate is fairly alarming for a low usage player, his shooting effiency sucks, and his advanced metrics are horrible. These will improve, but how much?

Here's where we have to delve deeper into the numbers and logical comparisons.

When projecting player's future potential most people make the mistake of comparing them to an NBA superstar. In this case, a lazy comparison is Dirk Nowitzki because he's a white European 7'0 shooter. Five years later they wonder why their guy isn't as good as the NBA Hall of Famer he was being compared to. They don't understand that most Hall of Famer's entered the league with a great skillset and production based on the age curve. More importantly their subsequent improvement was an outlier relative to 99% of other NBA prospects.

Or perhaps they make a comparison to someone like Chris Bosh because he's an agile, perimeter oriented 7-footer. Again, Bosh was an elite prospect who fulfilled most of his potential. And Bosh's game was much more perimeter oriented late in his career rather than early on.

For Bender let's use a more suitable comparison:

Marvin Williams.

I know, I know... not what you want to hear but stay with me.

For defensive purposes Marv was more of a "tweener" SF/PF and Dragan more of a "tweener" PF/C. The point is they were both "tweeners". Which means their VALUE defensively is tied to their ability to be a passable defender at TWO positions. Neither projected at age 19 as a high impact defender, but their versatility was valuable ASSUMING they didn't wash out as a "tweener" who couldn't guard EITHER position.

Their defensive responsibilities will differ due to positional differences. Ignore that. Focus on their value which is the ability to help a team play "small"
without making enormous sacrifices defensively or on the glass.

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[GlenRiceARoni]

Offensively, Bender has the profile of a "stretch 4" much like Marvin Williams.

I know some people may want to argue that he's a "stretch 5" but that's not really an important difference and I'll tell you why. Most people are familiar with the concept of "diminishing marginal returns" and shooting suffers from this as well if you try to implement a "5-out" offense (where all 5 players are perimeter oriented).

Ultimately for most offensive sets to be effective someone has to set the picks and serve as the roll man to the basket. If you don't have a guy who defenses respect as a "rim roller" (think deandre jordan, amare stoudemire, or tyson chandler) the perimeter just gets too crowded as defenses don't need to collapse. The "rim roller" doesnt have to be a center. He can be Aaron Gordon or Blake Griffin, but ultimately he is the defacto center during those plays and if you pair a "stretch 5" with them they are really just a "stretch 4" for all intents and purposes.

Bottom line. Dragan will impact a game offensively in much the same way Marvin Williams, Frank Kaminsky, Harrison Barnes, Channing Frye, Meyers Leonard, Kelly Olynyk, Chris Bosh, Nikola Mirotic, and Terrence Jones do.

I've given such a broad array of examples to emphasize my main point.
Dragan Bender's PRIMARY value offensively is as a floor spacer. It doesn't matter if he's labeled as a power forward, center, relief pitcher, or the Queen of England. He's out there to space the floor and open the paint for your primary and secondary ballhandlers.

How well he spaces the floor will depend on how well he can shoot, period.

So far he's demonstrated a great looking stroke and a quick release. He's 7'1 which makes him nearly impossible to contest on a rotation.

And he's already shooting 33% which is about the bare minimum for a floor spacer, but is quite a bit higher than what Marvin, Dirk, and nearly all of the stretch 4's listed above were capable of shooting at a similar age.

That bodes extremely well for his potential as a floor spacer which is by far the most important skill he needs to be proficient at.

On top of that he is shooting 50% from 10-16 feet, 50% from 3-10 feet, and 65% from 0-3 feet. Those are absolutely ELITE midrange numbers.

Those splits suggest that he can eventually operate in the high post like Dirk Nowitzki, Blake Griffin, or Lamarcus Aldridge. It's extremely rare for someone to be able to do both.

His ast/to ratio and FT rate is awful at the moment. It remains to be seen if he can develop the type of skills that would allow him to shed the "stretch 4" label and become more of a "playmaking 4" where he can put the ball on the floor if you sell out contesting his shot. He does appear to have the athleticism to make this a possibility though.

At the moment though he projects as a rich man's Marvin Williams (i.e. a max contract guy)... or a poor man's Dirk Nowitzki (i.e. a max contract guy)... or some type of hybrid (i.e. a max contract guy).

[carey]

Offensively, Bender has the profile of a "stretch 4" much like Marvin Williams.

I know some people may want to argue that he's a "stretch 5" but that's not really an important difference and I'll tell you why. Most people are familiar with the concept of "diminishing marginal returns" and shooting suffers from this as well if you try to implement a "5-out" offense (where all 5 players are perimeter oriented).

Ultimately for most offensive sets to be effective someone has to set the picks and serve as the roll man to the basket. If you don't have a guy who defenses respect as a "rim roller" (think deandre jordan, amare stoudemire, or tyson chandler) the perimeter just gets too crowded as defenses don't need to collapse. The "rim roller" doesnt have to be a center. He can be Aaron Gordon or Blake Griffin, but ultimately he is the defacto center during those plays and if you pair a "stretch 5" with them they are really just a "stretch 4" for all intents and purposes.

Bottom line. Dragan will impact a game offensively in much the same way Marvin Williams, Frank Kaminsky, Harrison Barnes, Channing Frye, Meyers Leonard, Kelly Olynyk, Chris Bosh, Nikola Mirotic, and Terrence Jones do.

I've given such a broad array of examples to emphasize my main point.
Dragan Bender's PRIMARY value offensively is as a floor spacer. It doesn't matter if he's labeled as a power forward, center, relief pitcher, or the Queen of England. He's out there to space the floor and open the paint for your primary and secondary ballhandlers.

How well he spaces the floor will depend on how well he can shoot, period.

So far he's demonstrated a great looking stroke and a quick release. He's 7'1 which makes him nearly impossible to contest on a rotation.

And he's already shooting 33% which is about the bare minimum for a floor spacer, but is quite a bit higher than what Marvin, Dirk, and nearly all of the stretch 4's listed above were capable of shooting at a similar age.

That bodes extremely well for his potential as a floor spacer which is by far the most important skill he needs to be proficient at.

On top of that he is shooting 50% from 10-16 feet, 50% from 3-10 feet, and 65% from 0-3 feet. Those are absolutely ELITE midrange numbers.

Those splits suggest that he can eventually operate in the high post like Dirk Nowitzki, Blake Griffin, or Lamarcus Aldridge. It's extremely rare for someone to be able to do both.

His ast/to ratio and FT rate is awful at the moment. It remains to be seen if he can develop the type of skills that would allow him to shed the "stretch 4" label and become more of a "playmaking 4" where he can put the ball on the floor if you sell out contesting his shot. He does appear to have the athleticism to make this a possibility though.

At the moment though he projects as a rich man's Marvin Williams (i.e. a max contract guy)... or a poor man's Dirk Nowitzki (i.e. a max contract guy)... or some type of hybrid (i.e. a max contract guy).

Quality post. Also, props for typing all 3 of those posts out on your phone. Never in a million years...

[carey]

His advanced statistics and defensive metrics show that he's pretty much a neutral defender as a 19 year old rookie. This is quite rare particularly for a guy who clearly isn't at full strength & conditioning yet. I believe his minutes are being restricted so the Suns can pritiorize his health and body adaptations this season.

This is something I had not considered that makes a tremendous amount of sense.

During the broadcast last night they were talking about how Watson said the team emphasized 3 things during their recent stretch of good play. They asked him what they were and he would not answer saying they prefer to keep it in house, but that one of them had to do with how much better they were defensively when Bender was on the floor guarding the perimeter. It also looks like when Bender is out there they are switching everything and keeping him out there trying to prevent penetration by the secondary ball handler. I'm not great at the x's and o's but that's what I saw last night.

[MathiasPW]

Offensively, Bender has the profile of a "stretch 4" much like Marvin Williams.

I know some people may want to argue that he's a "stretch 5" but that's not really an important difference and I'll tell you why. Most people are familiar with the concept of "diminishing marginal returns" and shooting suffers from this as well if you try to implement a "5-out" offense (where all 5 players are perimeter oriented).

Ultimately for most offensive sets to be effective someone has to set the picks and serve as the roll man to the basket. If you don't have a guy who defenses respect as a "rim roller" (think deandre jordan, amare stoudemire, or tyson chandler) the perimeter just gets too crowded as defenses don't need to collapse. The "rim roller" doesnt have to be a center. He can be Aaron Gordon or Blake Griffin, but ultimately he is the defacto center during those plays and if you pair a "stretch 5" with them they are really just a "stretch 4" for all intents and purposes.

First of all, loved your post. Good well thought insights.

Just tagged this part as it is one I don't agree with.

When you play 5-out, you are basically removing the defensive center from the paint. One pick set at the perimeter will leave the ball handler with a free lane to the basket, unless the defense collapses. You don't really need the roll man.
The Suns had a very efficient lineup in 2013 with Frye playing as a stretch-5 without anyone rolling to the basket. He basically set the pick for Dragic, then his defender had to cover the drive while he camped at the 3 point line for a kickout, where he shot defended by a small PG. It was deadly. Don't think diminishing returns really apply here.

For our current team, Bender could park at the 3 point line while Warren or Chriss could take turns spreading or rolling, as both have either a good touch around the rim or great cutting instincts, while also being decent from 3 point range.

It could be a defensive nightmare for other teams.

[Mulhollanddrive]

If Bender's ball handling is as good as some say (haven't seen it yet) he may be able to create more off the dribble against PFs, he can get into the lane or pull up and use his length to get a clear shot.

If he can do that his scoring ceiling probably goes from 14 to 18 points or around there.

[ilcappellaiomatto]

The early returns on Dragan Bender are EXTREMELY encouraging IMO.

Typically, you can tell very quickly if a big man's skills will translate in the NBA. It's just one of those positions where you either have it or you don't. Late bloomers are few and far between unlike guards (Billups, Kemba, Lowry, Conley, etc).

Whenever a guy has a unique skillset (a 7'1 shooter in this case) you really just need to make sure he doesnt have glaring deficiencies in other areas that keep him off the floor.

For a big man, first and foremost he has to be a strong rebounder/rim protector OR he has to be able to guard perimeter players, switch/rotate effectively. Dragan appears to be the latter. He's in the mold of a Cody Zeller on defense where his rebounding/rim protection isn't great but he can help against penetration, pick&rolls, and general rotation duties.

This is significantly more important than people give credit for. Everyone appreciates the Embiid type of defender but they tend to overrate the contributions of Jordan, Whiteside, and Drummond type defenders.

The NBA is all about getting initial penetration. If your center is Al Jefferson, Enes Kanter, or Jahlil Okafor they'll be put in PNR's repeatedly which compromises your entire defense and forces you to choose between easy buckets or open 3's.

His 6 rebounds per 36 minutes is a minor concern but his age and nice looking frame should alleviate most of that. Also, since he will play on the perimeter on offense it will be quite easy to pair him with another good rebounder in the frontcourt if necessary.

His advanced statistics and defensive metrics show that he's pretty much a neutral defender as a 19 year old rookie. This is quite rare particularly for a guy who clearly isn't at full strength & conditioning yet. I believe his minutes are being restricted so the Suns can pritiorize his health and body adaptations this season.

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And you think that you could pair Dragan with Chriss in the future or they will always need someone to cover their liabilities on rebounds and intimidation?

Inviato dal mio MI 4W utilizzando Tapatalk

[bwgood77]

The early returns on Dragan Bender are EXTREMELY encouraging IMO.

Typically, you can tell very quickly if a big man's skills will translate in the NBA. It's just one of those positions where you either have it or you don't. Late bloomers are few and far between unlike guards (Billups, Kemba, Lowry, Conley, etc).

Whenever a guy has a unique skillset (a 7'1 shooter in this case) you really just need to make sure he doesnt have glaring deficiencies in other areas that keep him off the floor.

For a big man, first and foremost he has to be a strong rebounder/rim protector OR he has to be able to guard perimeter players, switch/rotate effectively. Dragan appears to be the latter. He's in the mold of a Cody Zeller on defense where his rebounding/rim protection isn't great but he can help against penetration, pick&rolls, and general rotation duties.

This is significantly more important than people give credit for. Everyone appreciates the Embiid type of defender but they tend to overrate the contributions of Jordan, Whiteside, and Drummond type defenders.

The NBA is all about getting initial penetration. If your center is Al Jefferson, Enes Kanter, or Jahlil Okafor they'll be put in PNR's repeatedly which compromises your entire defense and forces you to choose between easy buckets or open 3's.

His 6 rebounds per 36 minutes is a minor concern but his age and nice looking frame should alleviate most of that. Also, since he will play on the perimeter on offense it will be quite easy to pair him with another good rebounder in the frontcourt if necessary.

His advanced statistics and defensive metrics show that he's pretty much a neutral defender as a 19 year old rookie. This is quite rare particularly for a guy who clearly isn't at full strength & conditioning yet. I believe his minutes are being restricted so the Suns can pritiorize his health and body adaptations this season.

Sent from my SM-N920V using RealGM mobile app

And you think that you could pair Dragan with Chriss in the future or they will always need someone to cover their liabilities on rebounds and intimidation?

Inviato dal mio MI 4W utilizzando Tapatalk

I think in the future yes and the coach and GM have talked about it. Particularly at 4/5 in small ball lineups, and more likely at 3/4 now. Welcome to the forums though I see you signed up a while ago and this is your first post.

[ilcappellaiomatto]

The early returns on Dragan Bender are EXTREMELY encouraging IMO.

Typically, you can tell very quickly if a big man's skills will translate in the NBA. It's just one of those positions where you either have it or you don't. Late bloomers are few and far between unlike guards (Billups, Kemba, Lowry, Conley, etc).

Whenever a guy has a unique skillset (a 7'1 shooter in this case) you really just need to make sure he doesnt have glaring deficiencies in other areas that keep him off the floor.

For a big man, first and foremost he has to be a strong rebounder/rim protector OR he has to be able to guard perimeter players, switch/rotate effectively. Dragan appears to be the latter. He's in the mold of a Cody Zeller on defense where his rebounding/rim protection isn't great but he can help against penetration, pick&rolls, and general rotation duties.

This is significantly more important than people give credit for. Everyone appreciates the Embiid type of defender but they tend to overrate the contributions of Jordan, Whiteside, and Drummond type defenders.

The NBA is all about getting initial penetration. If your center is Al Jefferson, Enes Kanter, or Jahlil Okafor they'll be put in PNR's repeatedly which compromises your entire defense and forces you to choose between easy buckets or open 3's.

His 6 rebounds per 36 minutes is a minor concern but his age and nice looking frame should alleviate most of that. Also, since he will play on the perimeter on offense it will be quite easy to pair him with another good rebounder in the frontcourt if necessary.

His advanced statistics and defensive metrics show that he's pretty much a neutral defender as a 19 year old rookie. This is quite rare particularly for a guy who clearly isn't at full strength & conditioning yet. I believe his minutes are being restricted so the Suns can pritiorize his health and body adaptations this season.

Sent from my SM-N920V using RealGM mobile app

And you think that you could pair Dragan with Chriss in the future or they will always need someone to cover their liabilities on rebounds and intimidation?

Inviato dal mio MI 4W utilizzando Tapatalk

I think in the future yes and the coach and GM have talked about it. Particularly at 4/5 in small ball lineups, and more likely at 3/4 now. Welcome to the forums though I see you signed up a while ago and this is your first post.

Thank you

However I'm a little bit worried about the rebounds , Chriss struggled a lot at Washington.





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[bwgood77]

And you think that you could pair Dragan with Chriss in the future or they will always need someone to cover their liabilities on rebounds and intimidation?

Inviato dal mio MI 4W utilizzando Tapatalk

I think in the future yes and the coach and GM have talked about it. Particularly at 4/5 in small ball lineups, and more likely at 3/4 now. Welcome to the forums though I see you signed up a while ago and this is your first post.

Thank you

However I'm a little bit worried about the rebounds , Chriss struggled a lot at Washington.
Inviato dal mio MI 4W utilizzando Tapatalk

He has had a couple of solid rebounding games for us which surprised me though.

[Saberestar]

Read on Twitter

[GlenRiceARoni]

First of all, loved your post. Good well thought insights.

Just tagged this part as it is one I don't agree with.

When you play 5-out, you are basically removing the defensive center from the paint. One pick set at the perimeter will leave the ball handler with a free lane to the basket, unless the defense collapses. You don't really need the roll man.
The Suns had a very efficient lineup in 2013 with Frye playing as a stretch-5 without anyone rolling to the basket. He basically set the pick for Dragic, then his defender had to cover the drive while he camped at the 3 point line for a kickout, where he shot defended by a small PG. It was deadly. Don't think diminishing returns really apply here.

For our current team, Bender could park at the 3 point line while Warren or Chriss could take turns spreading or rolling, as both have either a good touch around the rim or great cutting instincts, while also being decent from 3 point range.

It could be a defensive nightmare for other teams.

You are correct and i should have phrased my post a little more carefully. They key word in my post was "most offensive sets". My intention was to state that you can play the 5-out but that really limits your flexibility on the floor if you dont have a credible rim roller. It's a bit gimmicky and in a 7 game series teams adapt defensively better to things like that than they do in the regular season.

We havent really seen a team implement it with a high level of success in the playoffs yet. But that doesn't mean it CAN'T be done. The best offenses though have the flexibility to run different sets everytime down the floor to keep defenses guessing and attack their weaknesses based on current personnel.

In pre-game preparations it's common for coaches to devise ways to attack a team if they insert a player or lineup they have trouble defending themselves.

Ex. Say a team is concerned about defending Enes Kanter in the post or offensive glass. They will focus on putting him in the PNR nearly every possession with the goal of scaring Donovan away from those lineups quickly. They're often willing to put other offensive sets on the backburner to drive this home, particularly if they're already in the bonus as its an easy way to draw fouls/collect FT's if they leave him in the game.

As a Wolfpack alum I'm all too familiar with TJW's (RIP GIRLFRIEND!) disgusting array of floaters and scoring prowess around the basket. I agree he's a great choice as the roll man against most lineups.


Getting back to Dragan. If you look at strength & conditioning research it's nearly impossible to add significant size & strength while doing taxing cardio. The Suns are using this season to build Bender's 'core strength' which means they're certainly focusing on a lot of compound lifts like squats, deadlifts, bench press, overhead press, etc. Doing any type of taxing cardio or leg exertion (i.e. 30 mins up and down the court) is counterproductive as strength gains are only made with appropriate rest & recovery. This is why most strength focused programs are reserved for the offseason, but in Bender's case they decided he likely needs a full 15+ months to reach anywhere near his appropriate strength capacity.

Lastly, Shooting is all about "muscle memory". This makes his early shooting prowess more impressive as he's effectively shooting with a different baseline of strength each night. Imagine one night you're shooting after a heavy leg workout, and the next you're shooting after an upper body that destroyed your triceps. 2 days later you're shooting from freshly rested
muscles at their new strength adaptations. It can really cause alarming differences when you're talking about the precision required to stroke a 25 foot jumpshot. This is why you see some of his shots badly miss the mark when in general he's a very good shooter.

Another promising thing of note. Look how many Euros are billed as great shooters but have trouble adapting to the deeper 3 point line or lengthier defenders. Some of them like Mirotic struggle for so many years you wonder if he will ever develop a proficient NBA stroke. Saric is another recent example as i'd put Bender's shooting miles ahead of Saric.

I was talking to a friend who works as a NBA talent scout after TJ Warren's rookie season and questioned why they didn't select him in the draft. He said they had determined TJW's mechanics caused poor ball rotation and that his 3 pointer was probably a lost cause. I pointed to the fact that he shot over 50% from 3's his freshman year and that when he asked to be evaluated by NBA scouts they told him he needed to add muscle mass to be considered a first round pick.

TJ famously adopted the "RIP GIRLFRIEND" workout routine where he shut out all distractions and focused solely on strength & conditioning that offseason. He came back looking like he had eaten another human being but absolutely shredded. He used his size advantage to knife his way to the basket and drop '40 burgers' all over opponents in one of the most impressive scoring seasons in ACC history.

Needless to say, his 3 point stroke suffered immensely falling about 25 percentage points from the year prior. He hadn't adjusted to his new strength baseline yet.

Additionally, instead of being a catch & shoot guy, TJ was now the go-to guy and was mostly taking 3 point pullup jumpers when he couldn't get to the basket or the shot clock was expiring.

TJ was an exceptional shooter in high school and one of the hardest working, most driven scorers I've ever witnessed. I guaranteed the scout the kid will be shooting above NBA league average and possibly well above by his 4th season when he's up for an extension. He ended up shooting 40% from 3's and above 50% from the corners in his second season, albeit in limited attempts.

Im not sure what has happened this year there were rumors of vertigo but the Suns have kept it in house.

Bottom line, Ill be surprised if TJW and Bender don't eventually form a lethal scoring frontcourt at the 3/4 who space the floor for Booker/Bledsoe.

The NBA is moving away from man to man defenders. Its all about being able to score 110+ pts/per 100 possessions and rotate defensively enough to limit easy baskets around the hoop, high % corner 3s, or any looks from ~40% 3-pt shooters.

We are seeing that the top ~8 offensive teams can outgun 95% of the rest of the teams in the league and that sacrificing offense for defense is a losing proposition.

Guys like Kevin Durant who can serve as "Free Safety" as a help side defender are actually just as important if not more important than the on-the-ball defender as the helpside defender is responsible for:
1) patrolling the paint for cutters
2) protecting the weak side perimeter
3) controlling the glass
4) serving as a deterrent for penetration which allows the on the ball defender to play more aggressively.

This is the role Bender is currently being groomed for. Its only possible to play this role if offenses deem you a poor option to put into switch actions. Bender appears to have the length and footspeed for this to be the case.





-----------------------------------------------------------------------Hinkie has created a monster that will awaken in 2018 precisely 200 years after Mary Shelley published Frankenstein in 1818 A.D.
I don't think for a second this is coincidental as Hinkie is well educated and a fan of Classic British Lit

[jcsunsfan]

Bender needs some extended time in the D League. DNPs are not helping him much.


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[darealjuice]

Bender needs some extended time in the D League. DNPs are not helping him much.


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He didn't play tonight because he hurt his ankle last game? Prior to tonight he was getting at least pretty consistent minutes, unless he was playing poorly or fouling too much.

[MileMujs]

Does anyone know if he's injured

[Qwigglez]

Does anyone know if he's injured

He rolled his ankle a couple of games ago which is why he hasn't played recently.

[bwgood77]

Read on Twitter

[bwgood77]

Phoenix Suns forward Dragan Bender today underwent a successful routine arthroscopic procedure on his right ankle to remove a bone spur. The surgery was performed by Dr. Ned Amendola at Duke University Hospital. Bender is estimated to return to full basketball activity in approximately four to six weeks.

http://www.nba.com/suns/press-release/bender-undergoes-successful-surgery