Moderators: bwgood77, lilfishi22, Qwigglez
ImNotMcDiSwear wrote:
FWIW, I'm pretty confident we would select Bagley ahead of Jackson. I'm not sure we wouldn't select Bamba ahead of Jackson.
JJJr's foul problems could prove an achilles heel. How great a defender will he be when he has to adjust his game to the speed and craftiness of NBA scorers? I'm not sure. In that regard - overall defense - I have Bamba solidly ahead of JJ. On offense, I have Bagley ahead of JJJr, but not by a lot, because JJJr's shooting ability appears to be legitimate.
Mulhollanddrive wrote:Doncic flopped so bad against Panathinaikos: 10 points, 1 rebound, 0 assists, 2 turnovers (only 5 shots) in 21 minutes.
Mike James had 24 points, 5 assists and Nick Calathes had 11 points, 16 assists.
There's at least another 2 games between them so Doncic would need a dramatic bounce back to maintain his draft stock.
Sunzgunz wrote:Mulhollanddrive wrote:Doncic flopped so bad against Panathinaikos: 10 points, 1 rebound, 0 assists, 2 turnovers (only 5 shots) in 21 minutes.
Mike James had 24 points, 5 assists and Nick Calathes had 11 points, 16 assists.
There's at least another 2 games between them so Doncic would need a dramatic bounce back to maintain his draft stock.
Straight EuroTrash! Anyone who grabs him within the top 15 picks should have their head examined!
WeekapaugGroove wrote:Foul rate is one of the least concerning things for big men. It's something that almost always gets better with experience. It's also something that almost every big man struggles with early in their career as the learn what they can get away with in the NBA. It also is something that you have to look at the cause as much as the result; if you're someone like Chriss who picks up fouls because you're out of position a lot then it's a little more concerning but for a guy like JJJ with good defensive instincts it's more a result of being ultra aggressive and trying to block a bunch of shots. Heck even the fact that MSU has so many big men contributed because I'm sure they told him to be aggressive because they could handle the times he got in foul trouble. You see this with back up C's in the NBA where a team knows they only want to play the guy 18 minutes anyway so they tell them to challenge everything.
Mulhollanddrive wrote:If Ayton or Bagley had 10 points, 1 rebound (and took only 5 shots) in a tournament game I'd comment the same thing.
Mulhollanddrive wrote:If Ayton or Bagley had 10 points, 1 rebound (and took only 5 shots) in a tournament game I'd comment the same thing.
Waylay13 wrote:Saberestar wrote:I would obviously recommend you to believe in Givony.
I agree with him regarding a lot of prospects and I am pretty sute that he knows more about basketball than me. He makes a great job describing and analizing players.
BUT I have my personal opinion about players and I do not agree with him about Doncic.
I think that he is a really good young player but I do not think he is BY FAR the best player in this draft.
He is not an Anthony Davis or LeBron...he has (for example) physical limitations that are gonna make him difficult to be a franchise player in the NBA.
Ayton, Trae, Doncic and Bagley are really close IMO. We can not know for sure who is gonna be the best of them in three years, it is so difficult to evaluate these players because are sooo young entering the NBA.
Of course I understand that non super athletic cant be super star players. To name a few of these non super athletic players that were non franchise player off the top of my head like Steve Nash, John Stockton, and Larry Bird. Heck would we call Draymond Green a non franchise player but I would say that he might be one of the biggest keys to them winning.
The next question is are we expecting our pick to be a franchise player or just an all star or someone who will help us win?
bwgood77 wrote:Sunzgunz wrote:Mulhollanddrive wrote:Doncic flopped so bad against Panathinaikos: 10 points, 1 rebound, 0 assists, 2 turnovers (only 5 shots) in 21 minutes.
Mike James had 24 points, 5 assists and Nick Calathes had 11 points, 16 assists.
There's at least another 2 games between them so Doncic would need a dramatic bounce back to maintain his draft stock.
Straight EuroTrash! Anyone who grabs him within the top 15 picks should have their head examined!
Yeah, Mike James also had 25 against Dejounte Murray who was the best defensive pg in the NBA this year, at least according to DRPM, a metric in which he leads the rest of the point guards by quite a long shot... http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/DRPM/position/1
James would have carved up AZ and Ayton and probably ran circles around Bagley if AZ or Duke played Panathinaikos.
ImNotMcDiSwear wrote:
FWIW, I'm pretty confident we would select Bagley ahead of Jackson. I'm not sure we wouldn't select Bamba ahead of Jackson.
JJJr's foul problems could prove an achilles heel. How great a defender will he be when he has to adjust his game to the speed and craftiness of NBA scorers? I'm not sure. In that regard - overall defense - I have Bamba solidly ahead of JJ. On offense, I have Bagley ahead of JJJr, but not by a lot, because JJJr's shooting ability appears to be legitimate.
Mulhollanddrive wrote:If Ayton or Bagley had 10 points, 1 rebound (and took only 5 shots) in a tournament game I'd comment the same thing.
WeekapaugGroove wrote:?s=19
I post this as an illustration of what good coaches do to guys with bad defensive awareness. Something that has always been a problem for jabari parker and is a problem with Bagley.
darealjuice wrote:I'm very skeptical of Jaren Jackson Jr. I'm pretty sold on his defense, his mobility and shot blocking instincts are very solid even though he needs to do a better job of not going for pump fakes, but I'm not too convinced he'll be an instant contributor on defense considering rookies are rarely positive defenders and big men have a steep learning curve as it is. He's been a really good defender in college, but he's never seen anything close to the physicality, athleticism, and skill of NBA guys he'll be expected to check. His rebounding is also sub-par for someone expected to play center at the next level, and I don't buy the "he played on the perimeter" explanation near as much when Ayton and Bagley played power forward too and had much better ORB/DRB/TRB%.
His really offense scares me, and his shot doesn't have me completely convinced. His mechanics are a little funky, he gets weird rotation on his shot, and his 3PT% gets a 6 percentage point boost from 2 outlier games where he went 5/6 against Maryland and 5/8 against Minnesota. He hasn't been comfortable shooting off the dribble, so eventually teams will realize he's only a spot up shooter and force him to do something with the ball. When he has dribbled, it hasn't struck me as very in-control (high dribble, frequently off-balance/stumbling/called for charges, not much fluidity/change of direction) and he's almost exclusively going left right now. His offensive skill set has a long road of development before he can be mentioned in the likes of KAT, Embiid, AD, KG, etc..
Don't get me wrong, I understand him being a highly rated prospect. I just don't see why he's significantly higher rated than a guy like Wendell Carter Jr., who was also the best/highest impact defender on his team against a tougher schedule, projects as a good 3-point shooter, has a more developed skillset/feel on offense, and has all of the advanced stats to back it up.
In2ition wrote:If I could give this a +10 I would. I too am very skeptical of JJJ, as it feels only stat guys who don't know and watch the game are in love with him, just because they are more worried about trying to be the smartest person in the room. I've read that his fg% at the rim isn't impressive either for a pf/c. I could be mistaken about that. I think his avg projection is an outstanding defensive role player.
In2ition wrote:darealjuice wrote:I'm very skeptical of Jaren Jackson Jr. I'm pretty sold on his defense, his mobility and shot blocking instincts are very solid even though he needs to do a better job of not going for pump fakes, but I'm not too convinced he'll be an instant contributor on defense considering rookies are rarely positive defenders and big men have a steep learning curve as it is. He's been a really good defender in college, but he's never seen anything close to the physicality, athleticism, and skill of NBA guys he'll be expected to check. His rebounding is also sub-par for someone expected to play center at the next level, and I don't buy the "he played on the perimeter" explanation near as much when Ayton and Bagley played power forward too and had much better ORB/DRB/TRB%.
His really offense scares me, and his shot doesn't have me completely convinced. His mechanics are a little funky, he gets weird rotation on his shot, and his 3PT% gets a 6 percentage point boost from 2 outlier games where he went 5/6 against Maryland and 5/8 against Minnesota. He hasn't been comfortable shooting off the dribble, so eventually teams will realize he's only a spot up shooter and force him to do something with the ball. When he has dribbled, it hasn't struck me as very in-control (high dribble, frequently off-balance/stumbling/called for charges, not much fluidity/change of direction) and he's almost exclusively going left right now. His offensive skill set has a long road of development before he can be mentioned in the likes of KAT, Embiid, AD, KG, etc..
Don't get me wrong, I understand him being a highly rated prospect. I just don't see why he's significantly higher rated than a guy like Wendell Carter Jr., who was also the best/highest impact defender on his team against a tougher schedule, projects as a good 3-point shooter, has a more developed skillset/feel on offense, and has all of the advanced stats to back it up.
If I could give this a +10 I would. I too am very skeptical of JJJ, as it feels only stat guys who don't know and watch the game are in love with him, just because they are more worried about trying to be the smartest person in the room. I've read that his fg% at the rim isn't impressive either for a pf/c. I could be mistaken about that. I think his avg projection is an outstanding defensive role player.
bwgood77 wrote:His fg% at the rim wasn't as good as some of the others. It was 65.4% whereas, Bagley was 76.9, Ayton was 82.1, Carter was 70.2 and Bamba was 78.8. However, he was assisted at the rim quite a bit less than all of those guys.
But obviously that's not his strength as he doesn't play around the rim as often.
I agree with darealjuice on Carter, and I don't rank him much lower than JJJ, and think he is probably a higher floor/lower ceiling prospect and could be a top 3/4 player in the draft when it's all said and done. In my last big board I had JJJ, Porter and Carter all in the 4-5-6 tier...probably in that order, but it's close.
Obviously I'd prefer JJJ's rebounds to be better, but even though Bagley and Ayton played the 4, they both played very close to the basket most of the time, and always did when the other sat. JJJ had other bigs rotating in and was on the perimeter quite a bit more. Obviously on offense due to his 3 pt attempts compared to the others, but also on D. But he's obviously behind in that area.