Alex Len and his future

garrick · Post #361 » by **garrick** » Tue Mar 8, 2016 12:38 pm

It's really too small of a sample size to judge his overall offensive effectiveness & I would rather see a stretch of like at least 30 games in order to really judge him.

NavLDO · Post #362 » by **NavLDO** » Tue Mar 8, 2016 4:09 pm

First off, dremill, if you are referring to me as the "fanboy",(which you seem to be doing a lot recently, and not sure why), you are reading too much into my posts. Am I fan of a Suns player? Yes, I am...I'm a fan of most of our players, shocking, I know, considering I'm a Suns' fan. Anyway, I'm simply stating that those that try to denigrate Len by comparing him to Gobert are silly. They are two VERY different players. Is Gobert a better defender? Absolutely; he borders on All-NBA Defense ability. I'm not trying to knock Gobert at all. I'm just attempting to show that Len can score a dbl-dbl everybit as easily as Gobert, when given the minutes.

For example, let's look at both players, number of games with over 30+ minutes, and number of games wit double digit points, and double digit rebounds. This season:

Gobert - 35 games of 30+; 21 with dbl digit pts; 26 with dbl digit TRB

Len - 12 games of 30+; 12 with dbl digit pts; 9 with dbl digit TRB

So that's Gobert with 60% and 74%...

...and Len with 100% and 75%

So this apparent "advantage" that Gobert has over Len regarding rebounding, when playing starter minutes of 30+, is non-existant, and Len has the advantage in scoring.

So I have no reason to think, nor should anyone else, that if Len were to play consistently with 30+ minutes, he'd be as, if not more, productive than Gobert.

But I go back to my original 'thesis' which is these two players are very different, and it's not fair to compare scoring when Len is obviously bigger part of the offense than Gobert, and Gobert is going to have better defense and blocks than Len, because he's plaing closer to the basket and protecting the rim more often than Len.

So no, I'm not a 'fanboy'. I'm just trying to demonstrate my point that comparing Len to Gobert is apples to oranges. If there are fans (and there obviously are) that would prefer Gobert to Len, than that's fine, so long as these fans understand WHY Len isn't putting up similar numbers to Gobert in certain aspects, and not attempt to denigrate Len because his numbers are different, because the truth of the matter is, Len is a more versatile asset than Gobert. Not better, just different.

NavLDO · Post #363 » by **NavLDO** » Tue Mar 8, 2016 4:14 pm

MathiasPW wrote:Season stats between them is not really fair, is what Navldo says in that huge text, FYI.

Great point. Actually, great, rich discussion. I learned a lot from it.

I do drone on quite a bit, don't I !! :oops:

Yes, simply stated, you nailed my point!

GMATCallahan · Post #364 » by **GMATCallahan** » Tue Mar 8, 2016 9:31 pm

NavLDO wrote:Gobert a better defender? Absolutely; he borders on All-NBA Defense ability.

I would definitely say that Gobert defends on an All-Defensive Team level; I am not sure how many centers I would place ahead of him in that regard. Perhaps DeAndre Jordan would be one, and even that proposition is debatable.

Damkac · Post #365 » by **Damkac** » Tue Mar 8, 2016 11:33 pm

Honestly I would choose Gobert above Len but I don't think he is so far behind. Gobert is better defender but Len will probably be better on offence. And it's nice to have a center who can shoot so your oponent won't foul him on purpose.

ImNotMcDiSwear · Post #366 » by **ImNotMcDiSwear** » Tue Mar 8, 2016 11:47 pm

Damkac wrote:Honestly I would choose Gobert above Len but I don't think he is so far behind. Gobert is better defender but Len will probably be better on offence. And it's nice to have a center who can shoot so your oponent won't foul him on purpose.

Probably?

blee732 · Post #367 » by **blee732** » Wed Mar 9, 2016 1:18 am

Damkac wrote:Honestly I would choose Gobert above Len but I don't think he is so far behind. Gobert is better defender but Len will probably be better on offence. And it's nice to have a center who can shoot so your oponent won't foul him on purpose.

I suspect that Gobert's superiority on defense will exceed Len's on offense over the long run. However, I'm not unhappy at all with Len and don't see the point in comparing them.

Len clearly has room to grow, especially mentally. He hesitates a lot when he has open shots which leads to more misses than he should have. He needs to be more involved in the offense more consistently so he stops second-guessing himself. It's tough playing with guards that struggle setting up their big, can't remember how many times I saw Bled and Knight chuck up contested layups/floaters with Len standing wide open within a few feet of the basket.

bigfoot · Post #368 » by **bigfoot** » Mon Mar 14, 2016 12:31 am

Too think we could be paying Len over $20M per year in 2017/2018. If he turns into an 18/12 guy next season he will be paid over $20M by some team in 2017.

http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2016/3/13/11214778/alex-lens-emergence-raises-questions-over-contract-extension

nerazzurri10 · Post #369 » by **nerazzurri10** » Mon Mar 14, 2016 6:50 am

We have to pay him. ASAP. On the other hand his agent isn't stupid and might advise him to wait. It is a risk though, because of his injury history. Amare got away with a great Knicks contract and was injured for a long time.

Mulhollanddrive · Post #370 » by **Mulhollanddrive** » Mon Mar 14, 2016 7:20 am

Players (min 1000 minutes) who average 14 points /12 rebounds / 1 block per 36 and 70% FT.

Len, Gasol, Valanciunas.

Offer him $13m for 4 years this off-season.

One day a player is going to pass up $50m and have a Bosh like condition come up in the extra 12 months and feel like a stupid idiot.

Bogyo · Post #371 » by **Bogyo** » Mon Mar 14, 2016 7:40 am

Mighty Gobert just fouled out with 22 minutes, 8 rebounds and 0-3 fg and 0-2 ft with 2 TOs to his 2 assists. Although he did have a +23 in the +/-. But one game here and there doesn't mean anything - more ppl should remember that when Alex puts up a stinker from time to time...

Post #372 » by **Qwigglez** » Mon Mar 14, 2016 10:53 am

Gobert is a good defensive anchor, but he doesn't have much room to grow offensively as where Len is still learning both sides of the court.

saintEscaton · Post #373 » by **saintEscaton** » Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:05 pm

We may want to hold off on the max contract discussions. This is why I don't really care about his double double streak or raw boxscore slashline. Take a look at his heat chart,just abysmal.

Via Brightside:" Len's shooting percentages are down across the board this year. While he's shooting marginally better on jumpers (31% versus 30%), everything else has fallen off. His field goal % on DUNKS has dropped from 91.7% to 87% (on 77 attempts), it's the field goal % on LAYUPS that has dropped inexplicably from 58% to 39% (on 136 attempts). Its in the best interest of other teams to dare him to take it."

saintEscaton · Post #374 » by **saintEscaton** » Sun Mar 20, 2016 7:07 pm

This was also a good read http://basketball.realgm.com/article/241255/What-Ryan-McDonough-And-The-Suns-Face-With-Their-Second-Rebuild

"While Len occasionally flashes potential in a lofted jump hook or silky turnaround jumper, there are far too many clunky positions in between to inspire too much hope. As Rudy Gobert showed, Len just doesn’t seem like a big man with an upside of a certified, low-post bucket getter who can still produce against elite defenders.

To be fair, Gobert has made plenty of good players around the league look silly this season and Len still is rather young. On top of that, post play is becoming increasingly nuanced and a lot of improvement will be linked to a combo of his personal work habits and the team’s in-game, developmental commitment (But if neither of those aforementioned things are very good, Len will not wind up being the next Kevin McHale).

There is some hope for Len as a roll man -- he’s long, moves well and can finish above the rim -- but it’s here where we start seeing his positional ambiguity. Len has fallen in love with shooting mid-range jumpers rather than simply crashing on top of the rim. Part of this is due to his current partnership with veteran Tyson Chandler in the frontcourt. After all, Chandler’s presence near the rim enables Len to hang out higher near the free throw line after screening. But Len has always seemed to flash a natural affinity toward mid-range jumpers.

Now on a team like the Spurs, who run an offense where their bigs hang out at the elbows while the ball moves side-to-side almost non-stop during each possession, Len could play center and fit right in. For a team like Phoenix, who currently employ ball-dominant guards looking to score themselves or make one-pass assists, Len is going to be a bit of an awkward fit, even if the team separates him from Chandler next season."

ImNotMcDiSwear · Post #375 » by **ImNotMcDiSwear** » Sun Mar 20, 2016 7:27 pm

It's easy to see how much better Alex would be playing for San Antonio. Easy looks, repetitive spots within the offense... All too often, he looks rushed. There's no plan B on offense, so if he has to kick it out after his first move doesn't work, we're in trouble. On this team, this year, is there a single player shooting better than they have historically? All year, the pieces haven't meshed. Part of it's personnel, part of it's coaching. Hoping to see improvement across the board next season.

Bogyo · Post #376 » by **Bogyo** » Mon Mar 21, 2016 7:45 am

cosmofizzo wrote:It's easy to see how much better Alex would be playing for San Antonio. Easy looks, repetitive spots within the offense... All too often, he looks rushed. There's no plan B on offense, so if he has to kick it out after his first move doesn't work, we're in trouble. On this team, this year, is there a single player shooting better than they have historically? All year, the pieces haven't meshed. Part of it's personnel, part of it's coaching. Hoping to see improvement across the board next season.

Yeah, in his recent run, Alex has taken 2-5 shots per game that he shouldn't have - but he had no other (good) choice and was (is) encouraged to shoot. I don't really mind this becouse it helps him, and it helps the tank, but it made his FG% absymal for sure.
Also keep in mind that he is a 5, who is now forced to play 4 with our twin tower lineup, which means more shots away from the basket than he should/would have to take. I mean we've seen that he can hit the 15 foot J, and can go off the glass, but this part of his game clearly needs more practice.

Post #377 » by **Qwigglez** » Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:36 am

Yeah I'm not too worried about Len's shot selection at this point. A lot of his shots looked rushed or he's overthinking. The game is still coming to him and at least he's putting up some nice rebounding numbers. His FG% will go back up once we get some offensive threats in there.

aIvin adams · Post #378 » by **aIvin adams** » Wed Mar 23, 2016 11:24 pm

this guy on reddit puts together his own 'Passer Rating' that is pretty cool and seems to give results that match the eye test. bledsoe and knight are both relatively low rated passers for PGs, for example. Booker is actually ranked between the two, and would be even higher if not for all his TOs.

I was a little surprised/disappointed Len wasn't a bit higher. he seems like a better passer than where he's at (#229). and i was pleased/not surprised that Booker is ranked as highly as he is (68, nearly 10 spots ahead of Gordon Hayward for example). lots of u guys were saying early on that he was a gifted passer and you were right. the only player ranked higher with more TOs on passes is Harden. Booker is probably the best passer on our team right now and he's a rookie..

1-100: https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/4bn8ck/nba_passer_rating_20152016/d1amvsx
101-200: https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/4bn8ck/nba_passer_rating_20152016/d1amx6y
201-264: https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/4bn8ck/nba_passer_rating_20152016/d1amxnx

ImNotMcDiSwear · Post #379 » by **ImNotMcDiSwear** » Thu Mar 24, 2016 12:48 pm

So... is Len mentally weak? Since that Golden State game, his shot's been off. He's not just been missing jumpers, but layups and other close shots. Pretty sure coach told him at halftime to get aggressive - and that just led to fouls. No reason a guy with his height and length should have more BA than BS. I'm hoping he doesn't go all Biedrins on us.

I'm starting to see a ceiling forming for Alex. Elite rebounder; good but not great rim protector; ability to shoot but not consistent enough to draw defenders; can't handle below-the-waist contact in the post on offense. Hoping he can take it up a notch, and we've seen glimpses of it, but this run of bad shooting games has been very ugly.

Post #380 » by **bwgood77** » Thu Mar 24, 2016 1:38 pm

cosmofizzo wrote:So... is Len mentally weak? Since that Golden State game, his shot's been off. He's not just been missing jumpers, but layups and other close shots. Pretty sure coach told him at halftime to get aggressive - and that just led to fouls. No reason a guy with his height and length should have more BA than BS. I'm hoping he doesn't go all Biedrins on us.

I'm starting to see a ceiling forming for Alex. Elite rebounder; good but not great rim protector; ability to shoot but not consistent enough to draw defenders; can't handle below-the-waist contact in the post on offense. Hoping he can take it up a notch, and we've seen glimpses of it, but this run of bad shooting games has been very ugly.

I can't understand why he shoots so terribly.