Saberestar wrote:Ghost of Kleine wrote:Saberestar wrote:We gave up two SUPERLATE 1st round picks.
We got Mark Williams AND a 2029 2nd for Vasilije Micic, the No. 29 overall pick (Liam McNeely) and 2029 first-round pick, which will be the least-favorable of picks from the Suns, Cavaliers and Timberwolves (top-five protected).
Mark Williams is better than Kessler but everyone knows that it's just about health. This is a low risk-high reward move because we didn't give up a lot and if he stays relatively healthy he will be a Top 10 C in the league for years to come.
Yes, Mark Williams is very good.............. WHEN HE ACTUALLY PLAYS!!!!!
Have you ever heard the saying that the best ability is availability. As obviously you're not contributing anything to the stat sheet or winning if you're in street clothes and sitting on the bench.
Also, some other factors to consider in this comparison between Williams and Walker:
1- Durability issues ( referenced).
2- contract extension/ resigning amount/ etc.
3- which player can actually shoot threes (as is an important factor in today's NBA climate).
4- Age/ development potential.
I like Mark Williams just fine. But considering our current situation in having no viable assets for trade ( draft picks) the incurred cost of his looming extension and its impact on our cap situation too, which player do you think would have greater value in free agency?
More important is the consideration in the assets we gave up for Williams and with Kessler, would only have to be giving up cap space whilst KEEPING those surrendered picks as well.
Which scenario would you consider more favorable for our team projection long term man? Hindsight not always being 20/20.
You are wrong about Kessler, he can't shoot at all. Not from the 3p line, not mid-range, no FTs, not touch.
And he played just on 58 games last year, he isn't an ironman neither.
And you talked about their age and potential? Kessler is OLDER than Mark Williams.
Regarding their contract situation... with Mark Williams at least he will be a RFA and we will have the opportunity to keep him. Kessler will be unrestricted.
And again...those assets that we gave up to get him have minimal value. Low.risk move.
Both are serviceable quality bigs that would fit and address needs we've had/ have. And you make solid points in your perspective man. But this is how I am looking at this:
Shooting/ floor spacing:
https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?player_id2=willima07&player_id1=kesslwa01&request=1&utm_source=bbr&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison&utm_id=kesslwa01&utm_medium=sr_xsite
Kessler has a better overall FG% at around 68% compared to Williams 62%. And although not a league average 3 point shooter yet by any means, also a better % from distance between the two players.
For example, even from a limited sample size, Kessler is shooting 19% from three compared to Williams 0%. Now obviously 19% isn't good yet. But it's still much better than 0% clearly, and shows developmental potential to that aspect of his game and becoming a potential floor spacing threat.
Now Kessler has already put up 56 three point attempts during his time in the NBA, Williams has only put up 1 single three point shot in his entire time in the NBA. One shows a willingness to hoist up shots and develop that part of his game, while the other hasn't.
Injuries/ durability:
Since coming into the NBA, Kessler has played in 196 total games compared to Williams 106. And sure, Kessler only played in 58 games last season, but the last 17 games he missed was due to an anomalous injury with a nasal fracture that exacerbated into a concussion protocol, resulting in him missing 17 more games than his annual average since coming into the league.
Remove that aberration injury and he would have played around 75 games. Here are the two players seasonal averages for played games since entering the league:
- Kessler:
2022-2023- 74 games.
2024-25- 64 games.
2025-26- 58 games. ** 75 without the concussion protocol.
- Williams:
2022- 23- 64 games.
2023-24- 44 games.
Both have some durability concerns, but which has shown more games played on average per season??
Age/ potential:
You're right that Kessler is slightly older than Williams by about 6 months, but the potential is leaning more in Kesslers' favor than Williams when you take the statistical comparison, FG%, 3PT%, EFG% VORP, and even BPM into consideration.
And also the willingness/ propensity to develop/ work on expanding other aspects of their games. At least with Kessler, he's showing the willingness to try and become a floor spacing big. And his better FG% 3PT% and EFG% all indicate that by comparison.
Contract situation/ cap consideration
Sure, Williams is a restricted free agent and Kessler an unrestricted free agent. But Williams money will still count against the cap/ tax line for us. And he'll likely be looking for a big payday in his extension too, as he'll have leverage to seek a starting level salary given that we gave up assets for him I'm a trade! So we'd risk losing him for nothing if we don't pay him what he's seeking.
Whereas with Kessler, there are no assets from trade that would've been given up aside from cap space to get him, and sure, he's more in demand with better market value currently, but we could still negotiate a more favorable deal with him without giving up any assets via trade. And offered other contractual incentives or role inclusions as potential sweeteners.
With Williams, if we don't pay him what he's seeking, not only could he take the qualifying offer and we'd lose him for nothing while throwing away those two 1sts ( regardless of perspective value) and lose him for nothing!
And those 1sts, swaps or not don't yet have set value, but still represent cost controlled currency for trades that would also help our cap line over a 4 yr duration too.
Williams- Pay him a sizable contract or risk losing him in free agency and giving up draft assets for a rental??
Kessler- Negotiate a market value contract for him and not give up any additional remaining assets in the process aside from cap space??
For the record, I'm cool with Mark Williams! And excited to see him play here man.
The original post's point to be made was that initially we had interest in him, and Ainge wouldn't trade him.for less than premium value ( a young prospect and two 1sts). But now that we already have a depth at center, Ainge might let him walk for nothing in free agency for any team to scoop up WITHOUT having to attach assets to acquire via trade.
For a team in.our distinct situation lacking any viable semblance of assets to work with for years to come, I just find the timing rather ironic. And if asking to choose between the two scenarios, I like both centers, and find them rather similar. But give the slight value/ developmental edge to Kessler due to his three point shooting/ floor spacing development potential.
