Fry opting out?

[Cutter]

Is frye's statistical access attributed to him or is it he is coat tailing the success of others? I'm not buying that he is the player you numbacrunchas make him out to be. I think he is more of a piece to the puzzle than whole picture... Ie replaceable

Frye is very replaceable.

[Revived]

Is frye's statistical access attributed to him or is it he is coat tailing the success of others? I'm not buying that he is the player you numbacrunchas make him out to be. I think he is more of a piece to the puzzle than whole picture... Ie replaceable

Agreed with you Frank.

Frye is the perfect example of why advanced stats can be misleading and pointless. Sometimes basketball is just plain black and white. You produce or you don't produce. That simple.

[grumpysaddle]

Is frye's statistical access attributed to him or is it he is coat tailing the success of others? I'm not buying that he is the player you numbacrunchas make him out to be. I think he is more of a piece to the puzzle than whole picture... Ie replaceable

Frye is very replaceable.

Replaceable, but by what player? He might not be hitting his shots of late, but teams still heavily factor him into their defensive plans. For the price his contract is at, you will have a hard time replacing him with a player that provides the mismatches Frye gives your team. Most other teams with players similar to Frye are paying more for those players than the Suns are giving Frye.

You could replace Frye with someone like Ryan Anderson, but he makes a lot more than Frye and always seems to be injured. You could replace Frye with Ersan Ilyasova, but again, he makes more than Frye and has fallen back to Earth pretty hard this season. So, who do you easily replace Frye with?

The only easy solution, Kevin Love, would be perfect, but how do you get him without giving up half your assets? And would he even stay past next season if you did trade for him?

[bigfoot]

Is frye's statistical access attributed to him or is it he is coat tailing the success of others? I'm not buying that he is the player you numbacrunchas make him out to be. I think he is more of a piece to the puzzle than whole picture... Ie replaceable

The article posted on ESPN discusses the Real Plus Minus (RPM) statistic and it is supposed to model out the impact of teammates. Take a moment to read that article which I linked in my previous post. It's interesting that Los Sole has been pointing out a variety of stats that show Frye is critical to our teams success and then this independent ESPN article comes out and Frye is in the top 20 of all NBA players in RPM.

Frye gets almost all of his RPM from offense. We know he doesn't put up huge scoring numbers or gets lots of assists. So how does he score a high offensive RPM (top 18 in the league)? We all have to admit his ability to draw big men away from the basket allows Goran, Bledsoe, and Green to drive to the bucket. Without Frye the lane is clogged up. Could it be our guards shooting percentages and free throw attempts go up when Frye is on the floor and goes down when he is off the floor? There is no stat in the boxscore that shows the value of Frye spreading the floor. Somehow the complex model used to generate RPM is showing this ability of Frye's.

What don't we see? Frye camps out on the 3 point line pulling away the PF shot blocker. Tucker camps out for a corner three. Plumlee or Kief sets a high screen roll for Bledsoe or Dragic. Both shot blockers are out of the lane which allows layups for Dragic/Bledsoe. If Plumlee's/Kief's man sags then Bledose/Dragic get an uncontested jumper. Frye creates opportunities just by standing there. If Frye's man sags off then he gets an open three and hits them at a good percentage. Plus he is a high volume three point shooter (over twice as many attempts as Tucker).

Is Frye replaceable? Maybe, but according to RPM only Love and Dirk have better offensive RPM and equal/better defensive RPM. I could see either one of those two stretching the floor in a similar PnR situation. Funny those two both score in buckets.

[Jdiddy701]

Lol frye should be MVP the way you guys make him to be. Look, he spaces the floor but My question to you guys is how come the Suns are better when Markieff is in the lineup then? Last time I I checked Markieff finishes games. Channing is no where to be found.

Channing doesn't do anything for this team. That whole stat of him on the floor is the dumbest thing I've ever read in my entire life. The suns always come out flat to start every game. Seems like they get it going when Markieff steps on the court.

[Wannabe MEP]

Look, he spaces the floor but My question to you guys is how come the Suns are better when Markieff is in the lineup then?

Bledsoe-Dragic-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee +12.6
Bledsoe-Dragic-Tucker-Markieff-Plumlee -4.9

Answer: They're NOT.

Markieff and Frye are very different players, so Hornacek uses them in different lineups for different reasons, depending on the matchup. Actually, our best frontcourt is probably Markieff + Frye by the numbers.

[Wannabe MEP]

Raw plus-minus totals:

Frye + Markieff +167
Frye without Markieff +97
Markieff without Frye -27

[Frank Lee]

So its settled then, Frye's greatest impact is a decoy. And yes, I'd replace him with Illysova in one ticker pump. Frye is a role player, plain and simple. And as of late, he isn't contributing. Empty stat lines. Streaky shooter who is susceptible to droughts only paralleled by the desert itself. But again, I attribute this recent 'O-fer' campaign he is on as being physically drained.

Good points about who is on the floor finishing the close games.

[Cutter]

Is frye's statistical access attributed to him or is it he is coat tailing the success of others? I'm not buying that he is the player you numbacrunchas make him out to be. I think he is more of a piece to the puzzle than whole picture... Ie replaceable

Frye is very replaceable.

Replaceable, but by what player? He might not be hitting his shots of late, but teams still heavily factor him into their defensive plans. For the price his contract is at, you will have a hard time replacing him with a player that provides the mismatches Frye gives your team. Most other teams with players similar to Frye are paying more for those players than the Suns are giving Frye.

You could replace Frye with someone like Ryan Anderson, but he makes a lot more than Frye and always seems to be injured. You could replace Frye with Ersan Ilyasova, but again, he makes more than Frye and has fallen back to Earth pretty hard this season. So, who do you easily replace Frye with?

The only easy solution, Kevin Love, would be perfect, but how do you get him without giving up half your assets? And would he even stay past next season if you did trade for him?

I just wrote a long winded reply, only to somehow lose what I wrote .

I basically agree with you that Frye is perfect at PF for our system. He is a pure stretch PF, good at shooting 3 but doesn't bring a whole lot else to the table. Replacing him with other pure stretches like Kevin Love is unlikely.

I think we could get a similar "stretch effect" with other PF who are not "pure"stretches like Frye, but could keep the defense honest. I can give you a perfect player who is not a pure stretch PF, Hornacek likes him, he plays on our team, and has taken a majority of Frye's minutes this season.........Markieff Morris. Kieff is not as good of a 3 point shooter as Frye, but he is good enough to keep defenses honest where they don't sag off of him. Matter of fact Frye has played under 20 mpg recently as he continues to struggle and Kieff has taken his minutes.

I just think there are other PF like Kieff that could fill a similar role. Maybe players like Paul Millsap, Thad Young etc. I'm not saying Kieff should start....I like him off the bench. I just think there is life after Frye, and the team will just as good or better with any number of other PF.

[bigfoot]

Lol frye should be MVP the way you guys make him to be. Look, he spaces the floor but My question to you guys is how come the Suns are better when Markieff is in the lineup then? Last time I I checked Markieff finishes games. Channing is no where to be found.

Channing doesn't do anything for this team. That whole stat of him on the floor is the dumbest thing I've ever read in my entire life. The suns always come out flat to start every game. Seems like they get it going when Markieff steps on the court.

Much of Markieff's time is played at the center spot right along side Channing.

[Frank Lee]

Frye is shooting less than 25% from three over the past month+.... thats about the deepest stat I can come up with. Almost seems too simple to comprehend.

I'll take my chances with Keif chucking them up. Come play off time, the opposing coaches adjustments will be to make Frye hit some shots. They've done it before.

[RaisingArizona]

I hope he does.

[Wannabe MEP]

Why these excellent numbers for Frye?

The simple answer is that offenses are dramatically better with a true stretch-big on the court. The problem is that it's very difficult to find good true stretch-bigs. According to those RPM numbers, Frye is the third best stretch-big:

1) Dirk Nowitzki
2) Kevin Love
3) Channing Frye

There are a lot of other guys who try to fill the role, but...

- Frye is a much better shooter than most of them.
- Few are really sold-out as 3-point shooters. The advanced stats have said over and over and over again that the difference between a 3 and long 2 is HUGE. You take a guy similar to Frye but trained to shoot more twos -- he's nowhere near as valuable to offenses.
- Frye has a much quicker release than most pseudo-stretch-bigs. Every split second makes a massive difference in how the defense can operate. If the defense can abandon a stretch-big and then recover in time to prevent the open three, the value of his three-point shooting PLUMMETS.
- Frye has an incredibly high release. Combined with the quick release, it's almost unblockable. That means he can be used in lots of situations when the clock is about to blow up.
- The most valuable 3s are corner-3s. Frye almost never shoots them. That leaves that space open for other (poorer?) shooters (e.g. Tucker) so that the Suns can space really well with everyone in a high-percentage position.
- While I agree that Frye is not an elite defender, he's not terrible. A lot of stretch-bigs who can shoot are huge negatives on defense. Frye isn't.
- Frye is also not near as poor a rebounder as this board seems to the think he is. His total numbers are low, true, but his DEFENSIVE rebounding numbers are actually not bad. He doesn't get OFFENSIVE rebounds because he's camped at the 3-point line -- that's where he's supposed to be, because of how valuable that is for the flow of the offense. He also boxes out pretty well, and overall when he's on the court, the TEAM rebounds well, even if his individual numbers are lower. That's been true with lots of different lineups for a long time.
- Because of how pure of a stretch-big he is, he opens the court for another big that can't space (e.g., Plumlee, Lou). As long as you have guys who get inside and take advantage of the spacing he provides (e.g., Dragic), he plays well with lots of different combos.

[Frank Lee]

What are his RPM #s for the past month ?

[Wannabe MEP]

What are his RPM #s for the past month ?

Can't be evaluated. RPM requires a much larger sample size -- almost always uses multiple years at least as priors.

We can look at raw numbers, though, and they're definitely lower than earlier in the season, but still positive. Overall we've been +24 with him on the court since Bledsoe (and Tucker) returned. I wanna grep the lineup data too, but it's still a few games behind being updated.

[bigfoot]

What are his RPM #s for the past month ?

Can't be evaluated. RPM requires a much larger sample size -- almost always uses multiple years at least as priors.

We can look at raw numbers, though, and they're definitely lower than earlier in the season, but still positive. Overall we've been +24 with him on the court since Bledsoe (and Tucker) returned. I wanna grep the lineup data too, but it's still a few games behind being updated.

Oh you Unix nerd.

[bwgood77]

Frye is very replaceable.

Replaceable, but by what player? He might not be hitting his shots of late, but teams still heavily factor him into their defensive plans. For the price his contract is at, you will have a hard time replacing him with a player that provides the mismatches Frye gives your team. Most other teams with players similar to Frye are paying more for those players than the Suns are giving Frye.

You could replace Frye with someone like Ryan Anderson, but he makes a lot more than Frye and always seems to be injured. You could replace Frye with Ersan Ilyasova, but again, he makes more than Frye and has fallen back to Earth pretty hard this season. So, who do you easily replace Frye with?

The only easy solution, Kevin Love, would be perfect, but how do you get him without giving up half your assets? And would he even stay past next season if you did trade for him?

I just wrote a long winded reply, only to somehow lose what I wrote .

I basically agree with you that Frye is perfect at PF for our system. He is a pure stretch PF, good at shooting 3 but doesn't bring a whole lot else to the table. Replacing him with other pure stretches like Kevin Love is unlikely.

I think we could get a similar "stretch effect" with other PF who are not "pure"stretches like Frye, but could keep the defense honest. I can give you a perfect player who is not a pure stretch PF, Hornacek likes him, he plays on our team, and has taken a majority of Frye's minutes this season.........Markieff Morris. Kieff is not as good of a 3 point shooter as Frye, but he is good enough to keep defenses honest where they don't sag off of him. Matter of fact Frye has played under 20 mpg recently as he continues to struggle and Kieff has taken his minutes.

I just think there are other PF like Kieff that could fill a similar role. Maybe players like Paul Millsap, Thad Young etc. I'm not saying Kieff should start....I like him off the bench. I just think there is life after Frye, and the team will just as good or better with any number of other PF.

Perhaps Kieff fills in for Frye eventually, but clearly the numbers posted above don't back up that fact at this point. But I've mentioned Millsap before. I think after next season, when he becomes a free agent, if we can't get Love, he SHOULD be our #1 priority, depending on how Kieff develops. He is a perfect fit.

[LukasBMW]

I'd pay $2 mil a year to Frye just for his leadership and locker room presence.

I

[NapoleonII]

Frye sucking since December is strangely comforting to me. He's gotta turn it around at some point, right?

Hopefully that point comes in the 1st round.

[Zelaznyrules]

Is frye's statistical access attributed to him or is it he is coat tailing the success of others? I'm not buying that he is the player you numbacrunchas make him out to be. I think he is more of a piece to the puzzle than whole picture... Ie replaceable

Agreed with you Frank.

Frye is the perfect example of why advanced stats can be misleading and pointless. Sometimes basketball is just plain black and white. You produce or you don't produce. That simple.

I could agree with you if the goal were to produce numbers. It's not. The goal is to win and Frye helps the cause. That simple.